Are We Now Buyers At the Trade Deadline?

[Doohicksie]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Tank Legend Zac Dalpe who mentioned how great the organization was from top to bottom

I think it's shocking that Dalpe would say that.

[Brawndo]

The Pegulas are rumored to treat  players and their families quite well.

Jeremy White joked afterwards that Dalpe was another reason the Tank was successful it brought Skinner to the team 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Brawndo

[Weave]

I'm always surprised by the folks who embrace analytics so closely to make on ice decisions and then overvalue the mid to late 1st round picks when it is time to consider giving them up for known quantities.

It seems to be the only place where the bird in the bush is worth more than the bird in hand.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Weave

[Radar]

15 minutes ago, Weave said:

I'm always surprised by the folks who embrace analytics so closely to make on ice decisions and then overvalue the mid to late 1st round picks when it is time to consider giving them up for known quantities.

It seems to be the only place where the bird in the bush is worth more than the bird in hand.

Young known commodities I'm okay with. 30+  I'm looking to be very careful. You build through the draft and I like the idea of a pipeline of players being developed. Season is young and too early to really be talking buyer vs sellers anyway.

[Weave]

13 minutes ago, Radar said:

Young known commodities I'm okay with. 30+  I'm looking to be very careful. You build through the draft and I like the idea of a pipeline of players being developed. Season is young and too early to really be talking buyer vs sellers anyway.

Nothing wrong with optimisim.  Or excitement for what the team is currently showing.

[PalmTreeMafia]

17 minutes ago, Weave said:

I'm always surprised by the folks who embrace analytics so closely to make on ice decisions and then overvalue the mid to late 1st round picks when it is time to consider giving them up for known quantities.

It seems to be the only place where the bird in the bush is worth more than the bird in hand.

Interesting to note that 9 players in our organization were selected within the top 8 picks of their respective draft years: Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Okposo, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Dahlin, Ristolainen, and Bogosian. Outside the top 8 but still within the 1st round we have 4 more: Berglund, Girgensons, Beaulieu, and Thompson. So using the highly limited data sample of just our own NHL organization, there may be something to the idea that NHL draft picks outside the low 1st round may indeed be overrated in terms of talent, likelihood of making the NHL, and time it takes to develop.

My opinion on the OP's question: yes, we absolutely must be buyers if playoffs are still within reach in February. The 7-year playoff drought needs to be broken. A winning culture needs to be grown ASAP. The end goal is always to win the Stanley Cup. If that is somehow looking like a possibility in another few months, you go for it because you never know what the future will bring (horrible injuries, salary cap crunch, etc.).

 

[thewookie1]

If anything we should be merely throwing names out we might want to look at. So far so good but I’m not buying rentals for a 1 round and out 2nd WC team

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

38 minutes ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

Interesting to note that 9 players in our organization were selected within the top 8 picks of their respective draft years: Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Okposo, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Dahlin, Ristolainen, and Bogosian. Outside the top 8 but still within the 1st round we have 4 more: Berglund, Girgensons, Beaulieu, and Thompson. So using the highly limited data sample of just our own NHL organization, there may be something to the idea that NHL draft picks outside the low 1st round may indeed be overrated in terms of talent, likelihood of making the NHL, and time it takes to develop.

My opinion on the OP's question: yes, we absolutely must be buyers if playoffs are still within reach in February. The 7-year playoff drought needs to be broken. A winning culture needs to be grown ASAP. The end goal is always to win the Stanley Cup. If that is somehow looking like a possibility in another few months, you go for it because you never know what the future will bring (horrible injuries, salary cap crunch, etc.).

 

The question isn't buy,sell, or stay put....it's at what cost? Chemistry? Break the drought? Development? Future cap space? Chance for a Cup? Skinner? Reinhart? Nylander? etc.

Way too many variables at this point in time. We can only hope EVERYONE INVOLVED will make the best decisions. Whether that's JBot, Housley, Pegula, scouting, Skinner, and so on.

We talk about how we've been beating top teams but have we seen their best days and goalies? Not enough to evaluate that yet. Will teams keep playing back-ups against us until deadline then start taking us more seriously? that could give us some false hope of a long run and we could end up like Oilers, Avs, and others who made playoffs 1yr and miss the next. We want to be vary careful not to react foolishly on false hope but yet also not hesitate in realizing what could bring future success for years to come.

Just Skinner alone creates several scenarios that could either help us, hurt us, or destroy our future. Each and every decision has many ways it can affect the team and each one needs to be thought out clearly and not on a message board, lol. In JBot we need to trust he'll do just that.

As far as the underlined part....are you familiar with our Bills? How well is breaking the "drought" working out?

Edited November 18, 2018 by MakeSabresGrr8Again
spelling

[klos1963]

17 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

If anything we should be merely throwing names out we might want to look at. So far so good but I’m not buying rentals for a 1 round and out 2nd WC team

I think the goal would be to at least win 1 round, I'm sure it's not to buy a rental to get eliminated in round 1.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Frankly, unless we get a 24 year old player under contract for 3 or more years, I doubt Jbot surrenders a 1st rd pick in a deal.  We have seen over the last few years how hard it is to even get 2nd round picks at the deadline. Remember all we got for Kane was a good AHLer, a conditional 2nd (which became a 1st because they re-signed Kane) and a 4th.

Maroon went for a 3rd, Vatrano went for a 3rd and Grabner went for a 2nd.  So do guys like this really help this team? 

Can you see Jbot giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for a Tatar like LV did?  I don’t.  

 

 

[Hoss]

Making this type of move is also a good way to ensure your NHL team remains competitive at the same time your AHL team does if the assets are mainly draft picks.

 

I don’t believe JBots should have the mindset of “best player I can get for a first is coming here” kinda deal but it’s certainly an option he can’t shut his mind off to. Chances are you don’t have to use a first at the deadline to land a piece or two that helps you lock up a playoff spot. Also, February sounds so early for the deadline for some reason.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Hoss

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I'm always surprised by the folks who embrace analytics so closely to make on ice decisions and then overvalue the mid to late 1st round picks when it is time to consider giving them up for known quantities.

It seems to be the only place where the bird in the bush is worth more than the bird in hand.

I'm amused by someone devaluing those picks when they know nothing about the upcoming draft.

What known quantity are you getting? A mid level player without term left. Totally worth giving up a cost controlled asset with higher potential just so you can make round 2 instead of losing in 1.

Edited November 18, 2018 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Frankly, unless we get a 24 year old player under contract for 3 or more years, I doubt Jbot surrenders a 1st rd pick in a deal.  We have seen over the last few years how hard it is to even get 2nd round picks at the deadline. Remember all we got for Kane was a good AHLer, a conditional 2nd (which became a 1st because they re-signed Kane) and a 4th.

Maroon went for a 3rd, Vatrano went for a 3rd and Grabner went for a 2nd.  So do guys like this really help this team? 

Can you see Jbot giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for a Tatar like LV did?  I don’t.  

 

 

At least you've noticed this trend. Everyone else seems ready to mortgage the picks for a 26yr old middle six guy. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

My memory is not the greatest, but I believe Flagg will need to be sedated if the Sabres bring in Tofoli (sp?).

[Weave]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm amused by someone devaluing those picks when they know nothing about the upcoming draft.

What known quantity are you getting? A mid level player without term left. Totally worth giving up a cost controlled asset with higher potential just so you can make round 2 instead of losing in 1.

A mid level player is exactly the potential most likely to come from a mid-to-late first round pick, so the trade off is, a mid level player for someone who might become a mid level player 3+ years down the line.

Yeah, there are alot of situations where that makes sense.  Setting expectations for a young team that is just learning what it might become is very much possibly one of those situations.

And as mentioned, the market for a mid level player has been lower than 1st round picks anyway, making the choice even more obvious.

I suppose I'll refrain from inspiring another liger meltdown over prospects.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Weave

[Huckleberry]

I think if a trade happens it won't be for rentals, and we might be surprised about the guys that get shipped out to.

[Taro T]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm amused by someone devaluing those picks when they know nothing about the upcoming draft.

What known quantity are you getting? A mid level player without term left. Totally worth giving up a cost controlled asset with higher potential just so you can make round 2 instead of losing in 1.

IF all that would come back is a "mid level player without term left" then they shouldn't be giving up one of the 4 1sts they have over the next 2 seasons.  But if something better than that is available, say the guy that has 3-4 years left on a deal that upgrades 2C THIS season & can seamlessly slot into 3C when/if Mittelstadt is ready to assume that role; then a 1st should be in play.  (That doesn't even say the 1st should definitely be traded, but it should be considered.)

There's only 2 untouchables on this squad and a future 1st round draft pick isn't one of them.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I'm always surprised by the folks who embrace analytics so closely to make on ice decisions and then overvalue the mid to late 1st round picks when it is time to consider giving them up for known quantities.

It seems to be the only place where the bird in the bush is worth more than the bird in hand.

And I am always surprised that someone who saw the lost decade created when Darcy frittered away picks and development opportunities in the late 2000s would give short shrift to the concept of ensuring a steady pipeline of fresh cheap talent.

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, Weave said:

A mid level player is exactly the potential most likely to come from a mid-to-late first round pick, so the trade off is, a mid level player for someone who might become a mid level player 3+ years down the line.

Yeah, there are alot of situations where that makes sense.  Setting expectations for a young team that is just learning what it might become is very much possibly one of those situations.

And as mentioned, the market for a mid level player has been lower than 1st round picks anyway, making the choice even more obvious.

I suppose I'll refrain from inspiring another liger meltdown over prospects.

You go ahead and refrain. Wouldn't want you to hurt yourself. 

[Weave]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

And I am always surprised that someone who saw the lost decade created when Darcy frittered away picks and development opportunities in the late 2000s would give short shrift to the concept of ensuring a steady pipeline of fresh cheap talent.

I just went back and looked at Darcy's deadline trade history.  There is a handful of 2nd and 3rd round picks that he's moved to upgrade the team for the playoffs.  Of those picks, only Clayton Stoner ever became anything.  Darcy's history was not doing enough at the deadline, not giving away the farm.

[Weave]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You go ahead and refrain. Wouldn't want you to hurt yourself. 

[TheAud]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

I'm always surprised by the folks who embrace analytics so closely to make on ice decisions and then overvalue the mid to late 1st round picks when it is time to consider giving them up for known quantities.

It seems to be the only place where the bird in the bush is worth more than the bird in hand.

When factoring in % of salary cap consumed I think it's a lot closer than you think (in value, that is). 

[GASabresIUFAN]

A couple of things.

Any mid to late round pick if he makes the NHL at all will most likely be a AAAA player or a 4th line player.  Look to late 1 rd players for your middle six.  Guys like Girgensons, Berglund, Thompson are all middle to late 1st rd picks. 

Top 6 forwards and top pairing D usually come from top 10 and most likely top 5 picks. 

Also how many of these deadline deals exactly actually help teams?

Edited November 18, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Radar]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Nothing wrong with optimisim.  Or excitement for what the team is currently showing.

Agree totally. I'm optimistic and excited. They are currently exciting to watch for the first time in years.

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, Hoss said:

It’s not an unreasonable position but I am a little surprised at this sell at all costs mentality that’s still here.

Pominville has nine goals and eight assists. One of the top scorers on the entire team and people still want him scratch/tossed aside. But ERod has done jack ***** and this place loves him. At some point production has to matter.

Pommer has had an extremely nice weekend with the goal in the SO to keep the Sabres alive and then the GWG last night.

 

1 hour ago, FuhrUrsinne said:

Interesting to note that 9 players in our organization were selected within the top 8 picks of their respective draft years: Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Okposo, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Dahlin, Ristolainen, and Bogosian. Outside the top 8 but still within the 1st round we have 4 more: Berglund, Girgensons, Beaulieu, and Thompson. So using the highly limited data sample of just our own NHL organization, there may be something to the idea that NHL draft picks outside the low 1st round may indeed be overrated in terms of talent, likelihood of making the NHL, and time it takes to develop.

My opinion on the OP's question: yes, we absolutely must be buyers if playoffs are still within reach in February. The 7-year playoff drought needs to be broken. A winning culture needs to be grown ASAP. The end goal is always to win the Stanley Cup. If that is somehow looking like a possibility in another few months, you go for it because you never know what the future will bring (horrible injuries, salary cap crunch, etc.).

 

This is a good post and I largely agree, but I would like to know specifically whether you would give up a #1 for a pure short-term rental?

 

 

53 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Frankly, unless we get a 24 year old player under contract for 3 or more years, I doubt Jbot surrenders a 1st rd pick in a deal.  We have seen over the last few years how hard it is to even get 2nd round picks at the deadline. Remember all we got for Kane was a good AHLer, a conditional 2nd (which became a 1st because they re-signed Kane) and a 4th.

Maroon went for a 3rd, Vatrano went for a 3rd and Grabner went for a 2nd.  So do guys like this really help this team? 

Can you see Jbot giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for a Tatar like LV did?  I don’t.  

 

 

I agree, but I think the parameters are a little looser -- I think JBott would give up a #1 for a good 26-year-old with 2 more years under contract.

 

52 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Making this type of move is also a good way to ensure your NHL team remains competitive at the same time your AHL team does if the assets are mainly draft picks.

 

I don’t believe JBots should have the mindset of “best player I can get for a first is coming here” kinda deal but it’s certainly an option he can’t shut his mind off to. Chances are you don’t have to use a first at the deadline to land a piece or two that helps you lock up a playoff spot. Also, February sounds so early for the deadline for some reason.

Same question though:  would you give up a #1 for a pure short-term rental?

 

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You go ahead and refrain. Wouldn't want you to hurt yourself. 

You're kinda touchy lately.  Everyone's just trying to enjoy some hockey talk here.

 

 

9 minutes ago, Weave said:

I just went back and looked at Darcy's deadline trade history.  There is a handful of 2nd and 3rd round picks that he's moved to upgrade the team for the playoffs.  Of those picks, only Clayton Stoner ever became anything.  Darcy's history was not doing enough at the deadline, not giving away the farm.

I agree that he didn't do enough at the deadline -- esp. in 2006!!! -- but I think dudacek was referring to Darcy's abysmal hit rate with #1 picks and failure to develop lower-round picks.