What value in a contract for Skinner?

[Taro T]

46 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I don't totally agree with you. I think Skinner is almost as important to Jack as Jack is to Skinner.

How many wingers have we tried with Jack and had "limited" success over the last few years. Jack's breaking out is partly due to Skinner and alot to do with his own efforts too. If it were proven that Jack could lift any winger, we wouldn't have had to go get Skinner. Skinner was a proven scorer before coming here and Jack has reaped the benefits from that as well. If we let Skinner go we might not find a winger that meshes with Jack that well for a while.

They both deserve credit where credit is due.

As for teams who can afford Skinner and have room for him? Try the Islanders, Montreal, and the one that scares me most is Canucks. Boston could maybe work him in and the Coyotes could afford him, along with some others like the Avs. Skinner likely wouldn't want to go to Coyotes. Islanders have several UFA's and I wouldn't be surprised they don't sign them all and go after someone "like" Skinner. The Avs wouldn't likely break up their top line but what if they did and sign Skinner....it would create even more scoring depth. The reason I say that the Canucks scare me the most is Pettersson...need I say more? Young and skilled team needs a Skinner to elevate them to another level. 

Skinner likes it here and that remains our biggest hope in signing him. 

Umm, Eichel propped up the corpse of Pominville for more than 10 games each of the past 2 seasons before his wheels literally fell off each time.  If that isn't "lifting up any winger," not sure what qualifies.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Umm, Eichel propped up the corpse of Pominville for more than 10 games each of the past 2 seasons before his wheels literally fell off each time.  If that isn't "lifting up any winger," not sure what qualifies.

Yes, but since Pominville is only able to keep up for 10 games then it was imperative to get someone who could keep up with Jack and ready to, as none of the kids are ready yet.

Edited December 25, 2018 by New Scotland (NS)

[SDS]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Umm, Eichel propped up the corpse of Pominville for more than 10 games each of the past 2 seasons before his wheels literally fell off each time.  If that isn't "lifting up any winger," not sure what qualifies.

Disagree. Pominville is a great talent that is past his prime. It’s his body that has failed him, not his skills. 

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, SDS said:

Disagree. Pominville is a great talent that is past his prime. It’s his body that has failed him, not his skills. 

And Pominville, briefly, was made to look (at least on the score sheet) like that player he was from his youth due to Eichel.

No other Sabre & no Wild could accomplish that.

[Norcal]

I donno, but "the value just keeps goin up"..mike whiteside

[bob_sauve28]

Just to play devil's advocate, or whatever:

 

How many more years do we expect Skinner to be a top player? Is it reasonable to expect five more years? If so, then we pay, even at that expectations, for three years of dead weight.

 

Suppose we pass on Skinner, and spend the money somewhere else? If Jack can make players around him so much better, wouldn't a shorter, less expensive player be a better options, with the young talent to fill out the roster.

This article here says there is a depth of talented free agents this year. https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/the-top-30-unrestricted-free-agents-of-2019

[Gatorman0519]

14 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Just to play devil's advocate, or whatever:

 

How many more years do we expect Skinner to be a top player? Is it reasonable to expect five more years? If so, then we pay, even at that expectations, for three years of dead weight.

 

Suppose we pass on Skinner, and spend the money somewhere else? If Jack can make players around him so much better, wouldn't a shorter, less expensive player be a better options, with the young talent to fill out the roster.

This article here says there is a depth of talented free agents this year. https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/the-top-30-unrestricted-free-agents-of-2019

generally the decline starts by the early 30's... 5-6 years we can expect at most unless he is Ovechkin 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

11 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Just to play devil's advocate, or whatever:

 

How many more years do we expect Skinner to be a top player? Is it reasonable to expect five more years? If so, then we pay, even at that expectations, for three years of dead weight.

 

Suppose we pass on Skinner, and spend the money somewhere else? If Jack can make players around him so much better, wouldn't a shorter, less expensive player be a better options, with the young talent to fill out the roster.

This article here says there is a depth of talented free agents this year. https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/the-top-30-unrestricted-free-agents-of-2019

If we let Skinner go, the only way to compensate that is to make more than one move to shore up secondary scoring. If we can get that 2nd/3rd lines helping out, then if the top line tails off a bit, it won't matter as much. Or, find another Skinner.

[StuckinFL]

4 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I don't totally agree with you. I think Skinner is almost as important to Jack as Jack is to Skinner.

How many wingers have we tried with Jack and had "limited" success over the last few years. Jack's breaking out is partly due to Skinner and alot to do with his own efforts too. If it were proven that Jack could lift any winger, we wouldn't have had to go get Skinner. Skinner was a proven scorer before coming here and Jack has reaped the benefits from that as well. If we let Skinner go we might not find a winger that meshes with Jack that well for a while.

They both deserve credit where credit is due.

As for teams who can afford Skinner and have room for him? Try the Islanders, Montreal, and the one that scares me most is Canucks. Boston could maybe work him in and the Coyotes could afford him, along with some others like the Avs. Skinner likely wouldn't want to go to Coyotes. Islanders have several UFA's and I wouldn't be surprised they don't sign them all and go after someone "like" Skinner. The Avs wouldn't likely break up their top line but what if they did and sign Skinner....it would create even more scoring depth. The reason I say that the Canucks scare me the most is Pettersson...need I say more? Young and skilled team needs a Skinner to elevate them to another level. 

Skinner likes it here and that remains our biggest hope in signing him. 

I'm not saying ANY winger. Kane proved that point. But I believe playing with Jack will net a player about 10 goals a season just by nature of how amazing his vision, speed, and skills are. I wouldn't be insanely surprised if Skinner hits 45g this year. But do I think that's because he's a 45g talent? Not by a long shot. His past 3 years hes netted 28, 37, and 24 (ES at 24g, 30g, and 20g respectively). Paying him as a 30g talent for 7 or 8 is MORE than fair.

I'm not saying that he's not a great talent because he is. But he is a replaceable talent. We have the most important piece of talent in that duo locked up in a contract that will look like highway robbery in a few years.

Lets say you're a GM from Pittsburgh. You've seen the massive success your team has had over the past decade and you're looking to build a basement team up into a SC champion. Do you load up a top line or do you have multiple lines with massive talent that year in and year out teams struggle against? Do you overpay for a top line winger due to one season of great chemistry he has with your world class talent 1C, or do you methodically build up your team with multiple lines that are threat and a world class defense that can join the attack? And lets say you're an outside GM that's scouting Buffalo for Skinner. Do you think he's this player without Jack and pay him accordingly? Or do you think he's a 30g talent by himself? And how many people thought that Kane was overpaid at 7 for 7? (and almost all his goals are at ES and he can have that production with anyone centering him because he never met a shot he didn't like.)

If he signs in Buffalo I think alot of you are gonna be doing backflips for what JBot signs him for. If he signs somewhere else and a GM has lost their mind and overpays, good for him and I'd wish him the best with no hard feelings. Jack is the deciding factor in that equation, and I look forward to him making another 30g talent look even better for a lesser price.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

53 minutes ago, StuckinFL said:

I'm not saying ANY winger. Kane proved that point. But I believe playing with Jack will net a player about 10 goals a season just by nature of how amazing his vision, speed, and skills are. I wouldn't be insanely surprised if Skinner hits 45g this year. But do I think that's because he's a 45g talent? Not by a long shot. His past 3 years hes netted 28, 37, and 24 (ES at 24g, 30g, and 20g respectively). Paying him as a 30g talent for 7 or 8 is MORE than fair.

I'm not saying that he's not a great talent because he is. But he is a replaceable talent. We have the most important piece of talent in that duo locked up in a contract that will look like highway robbery in a few years.

Lets say you're a GM from Pittsburgh. You've seen the massive success your team has had over the past decade and you're looking to build a basement team up into a SC champion. Do you load up a top line or do you have multiple lines with massive talent that year in and year out teams struggle against? Do you overpay for a top line winger due to one season of great chemistry he has with your world class talent 1C, or do you methodically build up your team with multiple lines that are threat and a world class defense that can join the attack? And lets say you're an outside GM that's scouting Buffalo for Skinner. Do you think he's this player without Jack and pay him accordingly? Or do you think he's a 30g talent by himself? And how many people thought that Kane was overpaid at 7 for 7? (and almost all his goals are at ES and he can have that production with anyone centering him because he never met a shot he didn't like.)

If he signs in Buffalo I think alot of you are gonna be doing backflips for what JBot signs him for. If he signs somewhere else and a GM has lost their mind and overpays, good for him and I'd wish him the best with no hard feelings. Jack is the deciding factor in that equation, and I look forward to him making another 30g talent look even better for a lesser price.

1st Bolded---I agree

2nd bolded--how many 30g scorers do you think you can get and at what price? I don't think you can take that chance in trying to replace Skinner(and the chemistry) and that may be my opinion and basis for my argument. I'm ok with replacing Skinner if need be with two 20-25g scorers if it will help with scoring depth and cap space.

Pitt would be a bad comparison ...they got lucky with Crosby, Malkin, and Fleury. We got Jack and Sam. We now have Dahlin which will up our ante some to build on. I agree that you're getting to the point of "building more than one line" and more depth. But at this point in time we don't have a Malkin to build off of for the 2nd line. We aren't likely to get that by letting go of Skinner either. Can Jack and Sam hold that line together with anyone? If Bots thinks so and can build that 2nd line to help out immensely then I'm ok with that.

3rd bolded...you can't say Skinner isn't a 30g or more player but he is the only one producing at that pace with Jack so far. But you do seem like you believe he CAN be by looking at your stats previous to the 1st bolded. Skinner has performed without Jack and with lesser talent than Jack.

4th bolded...good luck finding another one for any significant reduction in cost. 

Question??? If Skinner ends up with 50 goals are you still gonna say that "Jack will net a player about 10 goals a season" or are you gonna up that to 20-25 so you can keep Skinner under 30g and the rest has to be Jack? 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Just to play devil's advocate, or whatever:

 

How many more years do we expect Skinner to be a top player? Is it reasonable to expect five more years? If so, then we pay, even at that expectations, for three years of dead weight.

 

Suppose we pass on Skinner, and spend the money somewhere else? If Jack can make players around him so much better, wouldn't a shorter, less expensive player be a better options, with the young talent to fill out the roster.

This article here says there is a depth of talented free agents this year. https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/the-top-30-unrestricted-free-agents-of-2019

That list in the article doesn't give me much hope at all. Most on the list are older than Skinner and less productive. Anders Lee might be a possibility but 28yrs old so I wouldn't sign as long term. Panarin maybe the same. In another post I commented that the Isles were a possible team that could go after Skins due to so many UFA's coming up.

The list is also showing that a good number of those players are making more money than Skinner is now and also will be wanting more cash. Will we be saving money getting any of the decent names on the list?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

4 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Just to play devil's advocate, or whatever:

 

How many more years do we expect Skinner to be a top player? Is it reasonable to expect five more years? If so, then we pay, even at that expectations, for three years of dead weight.

 

Suppose we pass on Skinner, and spend the money somewhere else? If Jack can make players around him so much better, wouldn't a shorter, less expensive player be a better options, with the young talent to fill out the roster.

This article here says there is a depth of talented free agents this year. https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/the-top-30-unrestricted-free-agents-of-2019

I hear you, Bob.

Anyone else and there is the great unknown.  Skinner was the great unknown when he was brought in.  Now we know ... he and Jack and Samson have really meshed.

Someone posted that the Sabres should trade for a good RW and move Samson to the second line.  That may be a good idea and way to approach it.

[Taro T]

Really believe people fearing that Skinner will walk are worrying over nothing.

If his initial ask is only $9MM/ for 8 years, they'll almost definitely be able to get him for a non-cap busting contract.  And having a "core" with 2 C's (assuming Mittelstadt continues to grow), 2 W's, & 2D, & possibly 1 G (should Ullmark continue to grow) should be extremely supportable.  And it should be good for a long time as 4 of those pieces including  both C's are 22 or under.

Thanks to Berglund's early Christmas present, the only LT overvalued contract is Okposo's (Hodgson's LT cap hit remains under $1MM until it finally goes away about 4-5 years from now).  If Botterill is as good at cap management as advertised, that should be easy to work around.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Really believe people fearing that Skinner will walk are worrying over nothing.

If his initial ask is only $9MM/ for 8 years, they'll almost definitely be able to get him for a non-cap busting contract.  And having a "core" with 2 C's (assuming Mittelstadt continues to grow), 2 W's, & 2D, & possibly 1 G (should Ullmark continue to grow) should be extremely supportable.  And it should be good for a long time as 4 of those pieces including  both C's are 22 or under.

Thanks to Berglund's early Christmas present, the only LT overvalued contract is Okposo's (Hodgson's LT cap hit remains under $1MM until it finally goes away about 4-5 years from now).  If Botterill is as good at cap management as advertised, that should be easy to work around.

I think it's more that people are looking at the NOW and not the LATER, myself included.

Right now Casey is still a project with not the best help on his wings. Yes, he's coming along but if he were farther along or showing what he did at the end of last year(5pts in 6games), then I think people would be more at ease about the whole thing. But, with the possibility that Skinner goes elsewhere just adds to that feeling "here we go again falling to the basement".

I feel like we can't afford to lose what we have and need to add more to the middle six to take that next step forward. You don't want to become another team where you make the playoffs one year and miss the next and go full Groundhog's Day (FLA, Isles, CBJ, etc). Jack, Jeff, Sam, Casey, Risto, Dahlin, Ullmark....McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Chiasson, Nurse, Klefbom, Talbot. I feel we are better on the back end but still developing the front (or moreso the middle).

If Jack can make a 30 goal scorer into a 45....or he makes a 20g guy into a 30, which is gonna win you more games?

[bob_sauve28]

8 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

generally the decline starts by the early 30's... 5-6 years we can expect at most unless he is Ovechkin 

And that's a big problem I have of throwing away 8 or 9 million a year  for three years in the future. I only go as high as a six year deal myself. He will be 34-35 then? Highly doubt he is still the Skinner we are seeing now at 34

[Huckleberry]

16 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

generally the decline starts by the early 30's... 5-6 years we can expect at most unless he is Ovechkin 

Yeah but his skating is so smooth, I don't see much of an issue of him keeping it up.

[French Collection]

I agree that there will be a production decline in the last 3-4 years of a long term contract with Skinner. They need to bite the bullet and hope it is not a steep decline. Maybe he is the 25 goal, 2nd line winger we need at 31.

You can offer him 5 or 6 years all you want but there will be at least 1 GM who will offer him 7 at whatever AAV the shorter contract is. It is a negotiation and Skinner will use all tactics to get what he can out of the Sabres. He may take a discount but that may cost the 8th year.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

13 minutes ago, French Collection said:

I agree that there will be a production decline in the last 3-4 years of a long term contract with Skinner. They need to bite the bullet and hope it is not a steep decline. Maybe he is the 25 goal, 2nd line winger we need at 31.

You can offer him 5 or 6 years all you want but there will be at least 1 GM who will offer him 7 at whatever AAV the shorter contract is. It is a negotiation and Skinner will use all tactics to get what he can out of the Sabres. He may take a discount but that may cost the 8th year.

His strengths may not deminish as much as a different style player when he hits 30, or 32.  

I think that if he signs with the Sabres, and I think  that he will, 8 years is a given.  If we take that 'super secret source' as real (I don't) then Skinner is asking for 9 - 9.5 to start.

IMO, Skinner will not get that amount from any team and I will believe the reports that he wants to stay in Buffalo ... 8 years ... $64 million.

[bob_sauve28]

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah but his skating is so smooth, I don't see much of an issue of him keeping it up.

I was just interested and looked up Paul Kariya's production in his 30's and it was still pretty good, so maybe Skinner is in the same mold as him.

[kas23]

19 hours ago, StuckinFL said:

I'm not saying ANY winger. Kane proved that point. But I believe playing with Jack will net a player about 10 goals a season just by nature of how amazing his vision, speed, and skills are. I wouldn't be insanely surprised if Skinner hits 45g this year. But do I think that's because he's a 45g talent? Not by a long shot. His past 3 years hes netted 28, 37, and 24 (ES at 24g, 30g, and 20g respectively). Paying him as a 30g talent for 7 or 8 is MORE than fair.

I'm not saying that he's not a great talent because he is. But he is a replaceable talent. We have the most important piece of talent in that duo locked up in a contract that will look like highway robbery in a few years.

Lets say you're a GM from Pittsburgh. You've seen the massive success your team has had over the past decade and you're looking to build a basement team up into a SC champion. Do you load up a top line or do you have multiple lines with massive talent that year in and year out teams struggle against? Do you overpay for a top line winger due to one season of great chemistry he has with your world class talent 1C, or do you methodically build up your team with multiple lines that are threat and a world class defense that can join the attack? And lets say you're an outside GM that's scouting Buffalo for Skinner. Do you think he's this player without Jack and pay him accordingly? Or do you think he's a 30g talent by himself? And how many people thought that Kane was overpaid at 7 for 7? (and almost all his goals are at ES and he can have that production with anyone centering him because he never met a shot he didn't like.)

If he signs in Buffalo I think alot of you are gonna be doing backflips for what JBot signs him for. If he signs somewhere else and a GM has lost their mind and overpays, good for him and I'd wish him the best with no hard feelings. Jack is the deciding factor in that equation, and I look forward to him making another 30g talent look even better for a lesser price.

I don’t think it matters at all what Skinner would score on a non-Eichel team. That is some other GM’s worry. The fact is, we have Eichel and he’s playing on Skinner’s line and Skinner will likely eclipse 45 goals for our team. That boosts his value for us, but not for another team. So, if we pay X amount of money, we are paying for a player that is likely going to score 45 goals for us, not a 30 goal scorer on a different team. If another GM wants to take the gamble that he’ll be a 45 goal scorer on their team, that’s none of our concern. 

[StuckinFL]

4 hours ago, kas23 said:

I don’t think it matters at all what Skinner would score on a non-Eichel team. That is some other GM’s worry. The fact is, we have Eichel and he’s playing on Skinner’s line and Skinner will likely eclipse 45 goals for our team. That boosts his value for us, but not for another team. So, if we pay X amount of money, we are paying for a player that is likely going to score 45 goals for us, not a 30 goal scorer on a different team. If another GM wants to take the gamble that he’ll be a 45 goal scorer on their team, that’s none of our concern. 

But that's exactly the point. What other GMs will pay him sets the table. If no one else in the league is going to drive his contract up to 9m then why would we pay him that? Just cause it's a nice thing to do? You figure out what the market outside of Buffalo will be and then negotiate accordingly. And I don't see any GM in the entire league looking at Skinner, even if he scores 50g this season, offering him 9+ for 8. If he was being centered by a league average center I could see that happening. But that's not what's happening and alot, not all but alot, of his current success is due to being on Eichel's wing. GMs employ pro scouts for a reason and I can't see anyone watching Skinner this year thinking he's going to be a 40g player without a superstar center for another 8 years. If someone out there is that naive, let them have him and try to trade him to them this year so you can get something back. 

[French Collection]

No one else can sign him for 8 years.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

3 hours ago, StuckinFL said:

But that's exactly the point. What other GMs will pay him sets the table. If no one else in the league is going to drive his contract up to 9m then why would we pay him that? Just cause it's a nice thing to do? You figure out what the market outside of Buffalo will be and then negotiate accordingly. And I don't see any GM in the entire league looking at Skinner, even if he scores 50g this season, offering him 9+ for 8. If he was being centered by a league average center I could see that happening. But that's not what's happening and alot, not all but alot, of his current success is due to being on Eichel's wing. GMs employ pro scouts for a reason and I can't see anyone watching Skinner this year thinking he's going to be a 40g player without a superstar center for another 8 years. If someone out there is that naive, let them have him and try to trade him to them this year so you can get something back. 

Let's look at the 2nd bolded.....I know you are saying that alot of his current success is due to Eichel and I agree.

Now for the 1st bolded.....the year (2016-2017) Skinner scored 37 goals, did you bother to look and see who was assisting on most of his goals. The answer would likely surprise you. It's actually no one particular player. But, from a quick glance, Lee Stempniak, Hannifin, Derek Ryan, Victor Rask,Slavin, and Pesce seemed to be the biggest contributors. Very few were assisted by Eric Staal (and most were 2ndary A's). So, to take that kind of stance that as if Skinner needs an elite C to prop up his numbers is not true.

3rd bolded....I guess there is someone out there, he just has the wrong opinion of Skinner or a much lower idea of what elite is.

[StuckinFL]

4 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Let's look at the 2nd bolded.....I know you are saying that alot of his current success is due to Eichel and I agree.

Now for the 1st bolded.....the year (2016-2017) Skinner scored 37 goals, did you bother to look and see who was assisting on most of his goals. The answer would likely surprise you. It's actually no one particular player. But, from a quick glance, Lee Stempniak, Hannifin, Derek Ryan, Victor Rask,Slavin, and Pesce seemed to be the biggest contributors. Very few were assisted by Eric Staal (and most were 2ndary A's). So, to take that kind of stance that as if Skinner needs an elite C to prop up his numbers is not true.

3rd bolded....I guess there is someone out there, he just has the wrong opinion of Skinner or a much lower idea of what elite is.

Yes, I don't think he will ever scratch the possibility of a 50g season without a superstar like Eichel feeding him. A 50g season and a 37g season are 2 totally different beasts. One is impressive, the other is top of the league. And a player that can score 50g with an average center I would feel paying 9 for 8 would be a n absolute bargain. A player that's hit 28, 37, and 24 (ES: 24, 30, and 20 respectively) in his past 3 seasons is not a 50g talent by himself. So don't pay him like he is one. Pay him like a 30-35 goal talent. And that is between 7 and 8 depending on term, how much the player wants to go there, and how good of a negotiator the GM is. 

You can't say that Eichel is contributing to his success and then say that Eichel's assistance shouldn't be factored in to projecting what to pay him. That just makes no sense to me. I mean, even if he hits 50g this year, that's an average of 34 goals over 4 seasons. Offer the man that kind of deal. 

[LGR4GM]

Inflation makes that 7-8 range go up.