GDT Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres 7:30pm ET 11/8/18

[WildCard]

 

[pi2000]

8 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

That's coach speak for saying he didn't like some of the goals Hutton let in.  

[WildCard]

Just now, pi2000 said:

That's coach speak for saying he didn't like some of the goals Hutton let in.  

Agreed

[Randall Flagg]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No you were not. Domi is shooting at 28.1% right now that is completely unsustainable, especially for someone with a career sh% of 10.1. At 10.1 he would hit roughly 17 goals on the season, while I believe this season he will top that, he isn't a 20+% sniper suddenly appearing. 

 Domi is maybe a 20 goal scorer but this pace is bound to slow. He's basically pulling a Stafford. Or William Karlsson, he went from 23.4% down to 11.5%. Domi will come back to earth, the question is when. 

A couple things about this: 

I was still wrong because even if he regresses to his normal shooting percentage, he will DOUBLE his goal production on the season from last full season. 

This shooting percentage discussion gets used far too much, and isn't really an accurate representation of how things work. It is not that people shoot 10% on average over 10, 20, 40, and then full season long lengths, and then every once in a blue moon have times where they way out-perform or way under-perform and will soon be back to normal. In reality, players shoot all over the place and wildly vary in having high and low shooting percentages over stretches as large as 2 seasons. That's what careers are made up of. Domi's 10% career percentage also includes unsustainably LOW stretches, so that measure itself isn't completely reliable to use. Every single player in the league will have several seasons well above average shooting percentages to contribute to their most productive seasons, and that is just how things work. Those seasons will change their "career percentages" accordingly. Year to year fluctuations of as much as 33% are EXPECTED, and any year, even the average ones, will have stretches of 15 games and 30% followed by 15 games at 4% within them, and even with that, Domi will wind up more-than doubling his goal totals. 

[SABRES 0311]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

EROD moved to Center?

Think of it as Phil moved two guys from third to second line so they can play with Sam. I could be wrong but I bet the KO Mitts Sheary line is more effective than Sam’s line. 

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

A couple things about this: 

I was still wrong because even if he regresses to his normal shooting percentage, he will DOUBLE his goal production on the season from last full season. 

This shooting percentage discussion gets used far too much, and isn't really an accurate representation of how things work. It is not that people shoot 10% on average over 10, 20, 40, and then full season long lengths, and then every once in a blue moon have times where they way out-perform or way under-perform and will soon be back to normal. In reality, players shoot all over the place and wildly vary in having high and low shooting percentages over stretches as large as 2 seasons. That's what careers are made up of. Domi's 10% career percentage also includes unsustainably LOW stretches, so that measure itself isn't completely reliable to use. Every single player in the league will have several seasons well above average shooting percentages to contribute to their most productive seasons, and that is just how things work. Those seasons will change their "career percentages" accordingly. Year to year fluctuations of as much as 33% are EXPECTED, and any year, even the average ones, will have stretches of 15 games and 30% followed by 15 games at 4% within them, and even with that, Domi will wind up more-than doubling his goal totals. 

I don't agree. Season long sh% totals might vary 33% but that's basically 10% v 13.3% as opposed to 10.1 compared to 28. Domi will regress significantly. Most players don't suddenly hit 300% better than their career average. One maybe 2 players a season do and then they regress. Sh% for the rest varies 2-4% which isn't a lot. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, R_Dudley said:

Yeah I remember seeing him the first time the sabres played Arizona in 14-15 season and thinking he looked good. Taken 12th that year in round 1. Isn't that teh same year we took sam 2nd? 

I know who I would rather have right now... 

I recall being one of the few who thought Montreal got the best of that trade - younger and cheaper player with similar upside, I said at the time. He was drafted in the Risto/Zadorov draft. Darcy apparently had a deal on the table with Columbus to move up and draft him, but he didn’t fall far enough.

Domi’s points pace over this, the best 15-game stretch of his career, is about the same as what Sam put up over the last 35 or so games last season. Career-wise, they are almost identical in points.

In other views, Domi is a dick.

[nfreeman]

Predictions:

- Both Reino and Sobotka respond well to being reunited and that line is effective

- the Sheary-Mitts-KO line also plays well and gets a bit more ice time than ERod-Sobotka-Reino

- Linus shines and the goalie controversy is on

[WildCard]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Predictions:

- Both Reino and Sobotka respond well to being reunited and that line is effective

- the Sheary-Mitts-KO line also plays well and gets a bit more ice time than ERod-Sobotka-Reino

- Linus shines and the goalie controversy is on

I'm not trying to be a dck but I literally predict the exact opposite of all that happens

[nfreeman]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

I'm not trying to be a dck but I literally predict the exact opposite of all that happens

Alright, mister.  I'll be back to you on these after the game. 

(Unless you are right.)

[WildCard]

Just now, nfreeman said:

Alright, mister.  I'll be back to you on these after the game. 

(Unless you are right.)

Trust me I hope I'm not lol

[Mustache of God]

Love how undrafted EROD can handle 2nd line Center duty but our second overall pick who was drafted as a Center can't. What the deal with Sam? Will he be fine?

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Love how undrafted EROD can handle 2nd line Center duty but our second overall pick who was drafted as a Center can't. What the deal with Sam? Will he be fine?

Reinhart is no longer a center

[Andrew Amerk]

Predictions:

-The Eichel line combines for three goals, including one on the PP

-We get a 4th goal from a D-man

-Okposo or Scandella take a stupid penalty that leads to a Habs PP goal

-Sabres win 4-2. Risto happens to be on the ice for both Habs goals

[Huckleberry]

1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:

Love how undrafted EROD can handle 2nd line Center duty but our second overall pick who was drafted as a Center can't. What the deal with Sam? Will he be fine?

His offensive zone possession stats told me otherwise, he just had no wingers who could finnish.   Zemgus was his most talented winger when they tried him out at center.

[bob_sauve28]

Nice interview Nathan, lol. 

[Stoner]

lol@Rob: "Don't need (my notes), RJ's here." No banter during play, thank God.

[Stoner]

Duff is insufferable. Does anyone like him?

[bob_sauve28]

5 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Duff is insufferable. Does anyone like him?

I really think they all suck. I turn the volumn way down and watch 

[Eleven]

RJ AWAY GAME!!!!!

[Stoner]

Freddy's call and response... wondering where NS stands on that.

Wouldn't you rather take a breakaway than give up a power play?

Cue the Munreal conspiracy nuts.

[Brawndo]

Stay out of the box 

[Stoner]

OMG embellish much.

[darksabre]

I love Ullmark's pads

[WildCard]

Just now, Brawndo said:

Stay out of the box 

Right off the bat and we're in penalty trouble. It's become a theme and major problem for this team