Sabel79 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 Might as well start a thread. Polls closed here in Virginia at 7. At 7:00:01 Tim Kaine announced to have held his US Senate seat against neoconfederate Corey Stewart. Good start. Tonight should be interesting...
Eleven Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) I'll call NY27 for Collins right now. He's 4 points up with over 2/3 reporting. F*ck, people are stupid. They had the perfect pro-gun, pro-little guy, even pro-farmer candidate in McMurray. And they're going to elect a multi-millionaire who will spend most of his term fighting 11 felony counts. Edited November 7, 2018 by Eleven
Sabel79 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Posted November 7, 2018 Democrats now projected to take the House. GOP keeps the Senate.
Eleven Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:17 AM, Sabel79 said: Democrats now projected to take the House. GOP keeps the Senate. Expand Yeah, I think we knew that in January, though. Not a knock on you.
TrueBlueGED Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) On 11/7/2018 at 4:17 AM, Sabel79 said: Democrats now projected to take the House. GOP keeps the Senate. Expand The macro results are matching what was expected. Dare I say, pretty boring. The political science models, poll-based models, and expert models (such as Cook Political, not dim pundit commentary) all agreed this is what we were most likely to see. If you want to get into "interpreting" the results (you should not get into this on election night or in the immediate aftermath, but it's inevitable anyway), both Democrats and Republicans can spin things their way. Liberals will enjoy the upcoming subpoena bonanza from the House, conservatives will enjoy continuing to stack the judiciary with conservative judges, and all eyes will (quite prematurely) turn to 2020. On 11/7/2018 at 4:22 AM, Eleven said: Yeah, I think we knew that in January, though. Not a knock on you. Expand You said what I just did, only much more concisely. Edit: As an aside, ballot wording in Ohio is abominable. "Vote for not more than 1." There isn't a single good reason why this isn't "Vote for 1" or "Select 1." Edited November 7, 2018 by TrueBlueGED
SwampD Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:25 AM, TrueBlueGED said: The macro results are matching what was expected. Dare I say, pretty boring. The political science models, poll-based models, and expert models (such as Cook Political, not dim pundit commentary) all agreed this is what we were most likely to see. If you want to get into "interpreting" the results (you should not get into this on election night or in the immediate aftermath, but it's inevitable anyway), both Democrats and Republicans can spin things their way. Liberals will enjoy the upcoming subpoena bonanza from the House, conservatives will enjoy continuing to stack the judiciary with conservative judges, and all eyes will (quite prematurely) turn to 2020. You said what I just did, only much more concisely. Edit: As an aside, ballot wording in Ohio is abominable. "Vote for not more than 1." There isn't a single good reason why this isn't "Vote for 1" or "Select 1." Expand If someone can't figure out what that means then burn it down, anyways and God bless us all.
TrueBlueGED Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:31 AM, SwampD said: If someone can't figure out what that means then burn it down, anyways and God bless us all. Expand It's not a matter of "figuring it out." People are in a hurry and try to get in/out ASAP. It would be easy to misread if you're in a hurry. The purpose of ballot design should be to accurately capture the intent of the voter. The Ohio ballot design fails that test. It's like designing multiple choice questions for an exam: you should design questions that measure learning, not any kind of "gotcha" question formatting. 1
LTS Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 My most hated night of the year.... It's almost over.
Sabel79 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:22 AM, Eleven said: Yeah, I think we knew that in January, though. Not a knock on you. Expand True, but if recent history is to be any guide, always prepare for the worst. You’ll only ever be pleasantly surprised.
TrueBlueGED Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:36 AM, LTS said: My most hated night of the year.... It's almost over. Expand My favorite night of the year! Actually, second favorite. The winner? Thanksgiving. A day full of beer, food, and football cannot be topped.
Eleven Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:36 AM, LTS said: My most hated night of the year.... It's almost over. Expand You started this club!
Sabel79 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:36 AM, TrueBlueGED said: It's not a matter of "figuring it out." People are in a hurry and try to get in/out ASAP. It would be easy to misread if you're in a hurry. The purpose of ballot design should be to accurately capture the intent of the voter. The Ohio ballot design fails that test. It's like designing multiple choice questions for an exam: you should design questions that measure learning, not any kind of "gotcha" question formatting. Expand This is rather reminiscent of the “butterfly ballots” that caused all the olds in FL to vote for Buchanan in 2000, thus putting you-know-who in the White House. All sorts of f***ery required to keep them in business, been going on for years. 2
Eleven Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:36 AM, Sabel79 said: True, but if recent history is to be any guide, always prepare for the worst. You’ll only ever be pleasantly surprised. Expand I'm only good at three things: Practicing law, predicting elections, and something you'll never know about.
TrueBlueGED Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:40 AM, Eleven said: I'm only good at three things: Practicing law, predicting elections, and something you'll never know about. Expand Your alcohol intake is well-documented on this forum ?
Sabel79 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:40 AM, Eleven said: I'm only good at three things: Practicing law, predicting elections, and something you'll never know about. Expand Hmmmmm. Bagpipes? Flatfoot dancing? Serial killer?
Randall Flagg Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:39 AM, TrueBlueGED said: My favorite night of the year! Actually, second favorite. The winner? Thanksgiving. A day full of beer, food, and football cannot be topped. Expand Too bad turkey is trash and the rest of the Thanksgiving meal is average at best (though the rest of the day with family, fall, football is indeed so pleasant) I poked my head into politics on the internet for the first time since the semester started really (knowledge of the Kavanaugh stuff came because it all happened when my family was here visiting and had to put it on TV lol). Tonight seems pretty par for the course, no? House switching sides in the first midterm of a president's tenure? I feel like both liberals and conservatives are fairly happy and slightly disappointed? It's quite the House gain for the dems, but they don't get any senate action when the court seems to be the topic that rules the day. Vice versa for republicans. Idk what I'm talking about tho
SwampD Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:40 AM, Eleven said: I'm only good at three things: Practicing law, predicting elections, and something you'll never know about. Expand It's cosplay, isn't it?
Eleven Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) On 11/7/2018 at 4:50 AM, SwampD said: It's cosplay, isn't it? Expand If by cosplay, you mean ***** my **** ****ly *** a ***** and ****** to ******, while ******ing a ****** and ******* a *******, yep. Yes, I realize I just set myself up for the worst SabreSpace MadLibs thing ever. Edited November 7, 2018 by Eleven
TrueBlueGED Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:50 AM, Randall Flagg said: Too bad turkey is trash and the rest of the Thanksgiving meal is average at best (though the rest of the day with family, fall, football is indeed so pleasant) I poked my head into politics on the internet for the first time since the semester started really (knowledge of the Kavanaugh stuff came because it all happened when my family was here visiting and had to put it on TV lol). Tonight seems pretty par for the course, no? House switching sides in the first midterm of a president's tenure? I feel like both liberals and conservatives are fairly happy and slightly disappointed? It's quite the House gain for the dems, but they don't get any senate action when the court seems to be the topic that rules the day. Vice versa for republicans. Idk what I'm talking about tho Expand The president's party almost always loses seats in Congress in the midterms, unless their approval is in the 60%+ range. Whether that results in either chamber flipping really depends on the distribution of seats before the election. Republicans gaining in the Senate is an outlier result in general (both chambers usually shift in the same direction), but looking at the map and projections beforehand, is hardly surprising in this particular election. Anyway, like I said up-thread, pretty boring night overall if you're looking at control of Congress. However, there have been a number of interesting changes at the state level, particularly with certain ballot measures. Voter ID laws have passed in a few states, NC voters rejected efforts to limit the governor's appointment powers, bi-partisan and non-partisan redistricting commissions have been adopted, Florida eliminated felon disenfranchisement (affects 1 million+ citizens), and Michigan passed a whopper of a voting reform package: automatic voter registration, same-day registration, no-excuse absentee balloting, and straight-ticket voting. 1
Eleven Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:45 AM, TrueBlueGED said: Your alcohol intake is well-documented on this forum ? Expand Ah, not so much anymore.
JujuFish Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 I voted for the first time tonight. Probably not something I should admit, but there you have it. 2
Randall Flagg Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 4:57 AM, TrueBlueGED said: The president's party almost always loses seats in Congress in the midterms, unless their approval is in the 60%+ range. Whether that results in either chamber flipping really depends on the distribution of seats before the election. Republicans gaining in the Senate is an outlier result in general (both chambers usually shift in the same direction), but looking at the map and projections beforehand, is hardly surprising in this particular election. Anyway, like I said up-thread, pretty boring night overall if you're looking at control of Congress. However, there have been a number of interesting changes at the state level, particularly with certain ballot measures. Voter ID laws have passed in a few states, NC voters rejected efforts to limit the governor's appointment powers, bi-partisan and non-partisan redistricting commissions have been adopted, Florida eliminated felon disenfranchisement (affects 1 million+ citizens), and Michigan passed a whopper of a voting reform package: automatic voter registration, same-day registration, no-excuse absentee balloting, and straight-ticket voting. Expand Now this is good, juicy stuff. Unlike the biggest myth ever created, that turkey can be a juicy meat, and tastes good Anywho, peace out politics, until 2020!! The start of a glorious, peaceful, and quiet stretch of time
Eleven Posted November 7, 2018 Report Posted November 7, 2018 I'm starting to see reports that McMurray conceded.
Sabel79 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Posted November 7, 2018 On 11/7/2018 at 5:00 AM, Randall Flagg said: Anywho, peace out politics, until 2020!! The start of a glorious, peaceful, and quiet stretch of time Expand Smdh.
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