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Posted

Might as well start a thread.  Polls closed here in Virginia at 7.  At 7:00:01 Tim Kaine announced to have held his US Senate seat against neoconfederate Corey Stewart.  Good start. 

Tonight should be interesting... 

Posted (edited)

I'll call NY27 for Collins right now.  He's 4 points up with over 2/3 reporting.

F*ck, people are stupid.  They had the perfect pro-gun, pro-little guy, even pro-farmer candidate in McMurray.  And they're going to elect a multi-millionaire who will spend most of his term fighting 11 felony counts.

Edited by Eleven
Posted (edited)
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:17 AM, Sabel79 said:

Democrats now projected to take the House. GOP keeps the Senate.  

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The macro results are matching what was expected. Dare I say, pretty boring. The political science models, poll-based models, and expert models (such as Cook Political, not dim pundit commentary) all agreed this is what we were most likely to see. If you want to get into "interpreting" the results (you should not get into this on election night or in the immediate aftermath, but it's inevitable anyway), both Democrats and Republicans can spin things their way. Liberals will enjoy the upcoming subpoena bonanza from the House, conservatives will enjoy continuing to stack the judiciary with conservative judges, and all eyes will (quite prematurely) turn to 2020.

  On 11/7/2018 at 4:22 AM, Eleven said:

Yeah, I think we knew that in January, though.  Not a knock on you.

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You said what I just did, only much more concisely.

Edit: As an aside, ballot wording in Ohio is abominable. "Vote for not more than 1." There isn't a single good reason why this isn't "Vote for 1" or "Select 1."

Edited by TrueBlueGED
Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:25 AM, TrueBlueGED said:

The macro results are matching what was expected. Dare I say, pretty boring. The political science models, poll-based models, and expert models (such as Cook Political, not dim pundit commentary) all agreed this is what we were most likely to see. If you want to get into "interpreting" the results (you should not get into this on election night or in the immediate aftermath, but it's inevitable anyway), both Democrats and Republicans can spin things their way. Liberals will enjoy the upcoming subpoena bonanza from the House, conservatives will enjoy continuing to stack the judiciary with conservative judges, and all eyes will (quite prematurely) turn to 2020.

You said what I just did, only much more concisely.

Edit: As an aside, ballot wording in Ohio is abominable. "Vote for not more than 1." There isn't a single good reason why this isn't "Vote for 1" or "Select 1."

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If someone can't figure out what that means then burn it down, anyways and God bless us all.

Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:31 AM, SwampD said:

If someone can't figure out what that means then burn it down, anyways and God bless us all.

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It's not a matter of "figuring it out." People are in a hurry and try to get in/out ASAP. It would be easy to misread if you're in a hurry. The purpose of ballot design should be to accurately capture the intent of the voter. The Ohio ballot design fails that test. It's like designing multiple choice questions for an exam: you should design questions that measure learning, not any kind of "gotcha" question formatting.

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:22 AM, Eleven said:

Yeah, I think we knew that in January, though.  Not a knock on you.

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True, but if recent history is to be any guide, always prepare for the worst.  You’ll only ever be pleasantly surprised.  

Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:36 AM, TrueBlueGED said:

It's not a matter of "figuring it out." People are in a hurry and try to get in/out ASAP. It would be easy to misread if you're in a hurry. The purpose of ballot design should be to accurately capture the intent of the voter. The Ohio ballot design fails that test. It's like designing multiple choice questions for an exam: you should design questions that measure learning, not any kind of "gotcha" question formatting.

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This is rather reminiscent of the “butterfly ballots” that caused all the olds in FL to vote for Buchanan in 2000, thus putting you-know-who in the White House.  All sorts of f***ery required to keep them in business, been going on for years. 

  • Like (+1) 2
Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:36 AM, Sabel79 said:

True, but if recent history is to be any guide, always prepare for the worst.  You’ll only ever be pleasantly surprised.  

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I'm only good at three things:  Practicing law, predicting elections, and something you'll never know about.  

Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:39 AM, TrueBlueGED said:

My favorite night of the year! Actually, second favorite. The winner? Thanksgiving. A day full of beer, food, and football cannot be topped.

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Too bad turkey is trash and the rest of the Thanksgiving meal is average at best (though the rest of the day with family, fall, football is indeed so pleasant)

I poked my head into politics on the internet for the first time since the semester started really (knowledge of the Kavanaugh stuff came because it all happened when my family was here visiting and had to put it on TV lol). Tonight seems pretty par for the course, no? House switching sides in the first midterm of a president's tenure? I feel like both liberals and conservatives are fairly happy and slightly disappointed? It's quite the House gain for the dems, but they don't get any senate action when the court seems to be the topic that rules the day. Vice versa for republicans. Idk what I'm talking about tho  

Posted (edited)
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:50 AM, SwampD said:

It's cosplay, isn't it?

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If by cosplay, you mean ***** my **** ****ly *** a ***** and ****** to ******, while ******ing a ****** and ******* a *******, yep.

 

Yes, I realize I just set myself up for the worst SabreSpace MadLibs thing ever.

Edited by Eleven
Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:50 AM, Randall Flagg said:

Too bad turkey is trash and the rest of the Thanksgiving meal is average at best (though the rest of the day with family, fall, football is indeed so pleasant)

I poked my head into politics on the internet for the first time since the semester started really (knowledge of the Kavanaugh stuff came because it all happened when my family was here visiting and had to put it on TV lol). Tonight seems pretty par for the course, no? House switching sides in the first midterm of a president's tenure? I feel like both liberals and conservatives are fairly happy and slightly disappointed? It's quite the House gain for the dems, but they don't get any senate action when the court seems to be the topic that rules the day. Vice versa for republicans. Idk what I'm talking about tho  

Expand  

The president's party almost always loses seats in Congress in the midterms, unless their approval is in the 60%+ range. Whether that results in either chamber flipping really depends on the distribution of seats before the election. Republicans gaining in the Senate is an outlier result in general (both chambers usually shift in the same direction), but looking at the map and projections beforehand, is hardly surprising in this particular election. Anyway, like I said up-thread, pretty boring night overall if you're looking at control of Congress.

However, there have been a number of interesting changes at the state level, particularly with certain ballot measures. Voter ID laws have passed in a few states, NC voters rejected efforts to limit the governor's appointment powers, bi-partisan and non-partisan redistricting commissions have been adopted, Florida eliminated felon disenfranchisement (affects 1 million+ citizens), and Michigan passed a whopper of a voting reform package: automatic voter registration, same-day registration, no-excuse absentee balloting, and straight-ticket voting.

  • Like (+1) 1
Posted
  On 11/7/2018 at 4:57 AM, TrueBlueGED said:

The president's party almost always loses seats in Congress in the midterms, unless their approval is in the 60%+ range. Whether that results in either chamber flipping really depends on the distribution of seats before the election. Republicans gaining in the Senate is an outlier result in general (both chambers usually shift in the same direction), but looking at the map and projections beforehand, is hardly surprising in this particular election. Anyway, like I said up-thread, pretty boring night overall if you're looking at control of Congress.

However, there have been a number of interesting changes at the state level, particularly with certain ballot measures. Voter ID laws have passed in a few states, NC voters rejected efforts to limit the governor's appointment powers, bi-partisan and non-partisan redistricting commissions have been adopted, Florida eliminated felon disenfranchisement (affects 1 million+ citizens), and Michigan passed a whopper of a voting reform package: automatic voter registration, same-day registration, no-excuse absentee balloting, and straight-ticket voting.

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Now this is good, juicy stuff. 

Unlike the biggest myth ever created, that turkey can be a juicy meat, and tastes good 

Anywho, peace out politics, until 2020!! The start of a glorious, peaceful, and quiet stretch of time

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