Tage Thompson: what's the deal?

[TheAud]

37 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Whatever. He's got a $10 million cap hit and has yet to score 60 points in a single season to date. Other young players have out produced him to date and signed for less money. I don't care about point per game extrapolations.

Eichel was a good value for his first three seasons for what they were paying him. I think "other young players" were making basically the same money Jack did (i.e. their ELC). 

Which young players have outperformed him and signed for less? MacKinnon for sure but his performance took off after signing the deal in a way not necessarily predictable based on his first four seasons, one or two of which were quite sub-par. He's a raging bargain at this point. Same thing with Scheifele. Draisatl? Debateable but I'd say Jack is 15% better ($10M vs. Leon's $8.5M). I think Pastrnak is the most likely one ($6.7M). Maybe Barkov too also (~$6.6M I think). 

 I'm talking same draft year +/- 1 year. Not being snarky here, its a real question. Are there others I'm missing? 

Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Laine...all still on their ELC so not in the discussion yet.  

[TrueBlueGED]

55 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Whatever. He's got a $10 million cap hit and has yet to score 60 points in a single season to date. Other young players have out produced him to date and signed for less money. I don't care about point per game extrapolations.

They've paid him for his potential and we need to hope it pays off. I hope it ends up being a deal for the Sabres but that's not proven yet. If he's worth $10 million how is O'Reilly not worth $7.5? It just amazes me how quickly O'Reilly got thrown under the bus around here and suddenly there's revisionist history about how he's a bum and a locker room cancer and how Tage Freaking Thompson and some dead wood depth players were the absolute best we could hope to get for him and we should be grateful he's gone because he sucks anyway. Just because he was a whiny emo crybaby to the press doesn't change how much he contributed on the ice.

I'd hate to interrupt a good rant, but Eichel had 64 points last season. 

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I'd hate to interrupt a good rant, but Eichel had 64 points last season. 

Also, a 130+ straight game stretch of pacing for like 80 points makes that phrasing "true" and also incredibly misleading.

[Drunkard]

40 minutes ago, Sakman said:

Eichel was a good value for his first three seasons for what they were paying him. I think "other young players" were making basically the same money Jack did (i.e. their ELC). 

Which young players have outperformed him and signed for less? MacKinnon for sure but his performance took off after signing the deal in a way not necessarily predictable based on his first four seasons, one or two of which were quite sub-par. He's a raging bargain at this point. Same thing with Scheifele. Draisatl? Debateable but I'd say Jack is 15% better ($10M vs. Leon's $8.5M). I think Pastrnak is the most likely one ($6.7M). Maybe Barkov too also (~$6.6M I think). 

 I'm talking same draft year +/- 1 year. Not being snarky here, its a real question. Are there others I'm missing? 

Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Laine...all still on their ELC so not in the discussion yet.  

You just named the guys I was thinking of. Scheifele, Draisaitle, Pastrnak, and MacKinnon.

I don't have a problem with Eichel or his contract assuming he can put up 80+ points this season. If he gets another case of ankle aids and people pin their hopes to another 60 points in 60 games clip I will definitely be disappointed though.

It was mainly a snipe in response to GA's comment that O'Reilly was an overpaid second line center. A center that gets paid 75% of what Eichel now makes despite scoring at more than a 75% rate of what Eichel has while also carrying the load for Eichel and everyone else on the team defensively. I realize O'Reilly was/is in his prime while Eichel was on his ELC, the comment just bugged me, so I felt the need to combat it.

I'd also like to point out that O'Reilly currently has more goals and points than Eichel does this season while playing fewer games at this point (7 goals and 19 points in 13 games for the emo cancer while Eichel has 4 goals and 17 points in 15 games), so it's not like we had to dump O'Reilly because he was about to start declining from age.  

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I'd hate to interrupt a good rant, but Eichel had 64 points last season. 

Ok. Change it to 65. His contract is still more based on potential that what he's proven so far.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Let’s compare Jack vs ROR during their 3 years as teammates.

from ages 24-26 ROR played 224 of 246 games; scored 176 pts for .79 pts per game.  ROR scored 65g in the 3 season with 48% coming on the PP.

from ages 19-21 Jack played 209 of 246 games; scored 177 pts for .85 pts per game. Jack scored 73g in those season with 29% coming on the PP.

So who would you invest in?  The more productive younger player with upside or the guy in his prime who did most of his damage for us on he PP?

[TheAud]

11 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

You just named the guys I was thinking of. Scheifele, Draisaitle, Pastrnak, and MacKinnon.

The thing is, you have to overpay guys to play in Buffalo. It's not a sexy location like Winnipeg or Edmonton where they'll take less.  :-)

[Drunkard]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Let’s compare Jack vs ROR during their 3 years as teammates.

from ages 24-26 ROR played 224 of 246 games; scored 176 pts for .79 pts per game.  ROR scored 65g in the 3 season with 48% coming on the PP.

from ages 19-21 Jack played 209 of 246 games; scored 177 pts for .85 pts per game. Jack scored 73g in those season with 29% coming on the PP.

So who would you invest in?  The more productive younger player with upside or the guy in his prime who did most of his damage for us on he PP?

Those numbers seem pretty similar. Seems like the gap should be much bigger when comparing an overpaid second line center against a franchise player deserving of hero worship.

Also, I was unaware we could only have one center. Why not keep both? We'd be better off giving Lord Casey (pbuh) a chance to break in at wing or the ability to be sheltered on a lower line. O'Reilly was good enough to shelter Eichel, he should have been kept to shelter Mittelstadt.

That overpaid second line center is also currently outscoring the franchise guy as well.

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Those numbers seem pretty similar. Seems like the gap should be much bigger when comparing an overpaid second line center against a franchise player deserving of hero worship.

Also, I was unaware we could only have one center. Why not keep both? We'd be better off giving Lord Casey (pbuh) a chance to break in at wing or the ability to be sheltered on a lower line. O'Reilly was good enough to shelter Eichel, he should have been kept to shelter Mittelstadt.

That overpaid second line center is also currently outscoring the franchise guy as well.

Because you traded someone who management thought didn’t want to be here creating cap room to acquire Skinner who did want to be here.

Also while the numbers do look similar, you are comparing are a seasoned pro in his prime to a rookie on his ELC, yet the rookie still out scored him and was a better 5 on 5 scorer.

I get that you don’t like the deal we got for ROR.  I was just as pissed at the deal for Kane.  I also thought (and do think we overpaid to get ROR in the 1st place), but actually didn’t have a problem with the acquisition at the time.  

We got ROR and McGinn for Zadorov (1st rd prospect). 2nd rd prospect Compher, a 2nd rd pick and failing prospect Grigorenko. We then traded McGinn for a 3rd in 2016.

Now Jbot traded ROR for Thompson (1st rd prospect), a 1st rd pick, a 2nd rd pick and 2 cap dumps but servicable players in Sobotka and Berglund.

The deals don’t look that dissimilar. The 2nd rd picks are a wash, Thompson and a 1st vs Compher and Zadarov amd a 2nd seems like a wash as well.  

 

Just as a Point of reference for Jack vs ROR, Mackinnon and Schiefele

From ages 19-21 Jack has averaged .85 pts per game for his 1st 3 seasons (.93 at age 20 and .96 at age 21)

At the same age

ROR averaged .55 over 184 games (years 2-4) of his career. His “breakout” season was at 22 where he put up 64 pts over 80 games (.8 pts per game) and wasn’t exceeded until he hit 60 pts in 71 games with us at age 24 (.84 pts per game). He is off to a great start for this year, but don’t expect it to continue,

Schiefele didn’t make the NHL until 20.  His 1st 2 seasons (ages 20 and 21) he averaged .57 pts per game over 145 games.  Add his 3rd season at 22 and you get .66 pts per game over 216 games.  He didn’t reach 1pt per game until age 23 and has remained at that pace this season and last.

McKinnon averaged .66 pts per game from age 19-21 over 218 games. His best early season scoring rate was actually at 18 where he had 63 pts in 82 games (.77). For his first 4 years he average .68 pts over 300 games.  He had his breakout last year at 22 (his 5th season) scoring 97 pts in 74 games (1.31 pts per game).

So Jack has significantly out performed all three comparables at the same age.  None reach .9 pts per game until 22 or later (or never in ROR’s case). Jack did it at age 20.  Will he breakout at 22 like MacKinnon did?  Early returns are good (1.13 pts per game YTD).  

 

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

39 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Those numbers seem pretty similar. Seems like the gap should be much bigger when comparing an overpaid second line center against a franchise player deserving of hero worship.

Also, I was unaware we could only have one center. Why not keep both? We'd be better off giving Lord Casey (pbuh) a chance to break in at wing or the ability to be sheltered on a lower line. O'Reilly was good enough to shelter Eichel, he should have been kept to shelter Mittelstadt.

That overpaid second line center is also currently outscoring the franchise guy as well.

I really can't seem to put my finger on the issue with ROR. There just seems to be something that doesn't jive about him.

If I remember correctly (i could be wrong) there were "grumblings" about him not being happy in Colorado and then his closing statements here. Now he's on a good team (St. Louis has been a contender in recent years, but just missed playoffs last year). He's having a great start but yet the team doesn't seem to be better with him (or the other players they signed).

I just get the sense that there really is something about him that's not good and follows him wherever he goes.Could be just one of those people who never wins at bingo or on a scratch off ticket or a basket raffle. A dark cloud over his head.

[Drunkard]

I noticed you left out Pastrnak and Draisaitl. Did you just not care to do those guys or was it because they would have made Eichel look bad?

Edited November 7, 2018 by Alkoholist

[Randall Flagg]

Pastrnak plays on the best line in hockey with arguably the best winger in hockey and the best two-way center in hockey 

 

Draisaitl is comprehensively worse than Eichel WITH McDavid and has pitiful metrics away from McD relative 

neither makes Jack look bad and neither would be as good as Jack on this team with its rosters over the past 4 years 

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

I noticed you left out Pastrnak and Draisaitl. Did you just not care to do those guys or was it because they would have made Eichel look bad?

I left out Pasternak because he is a winger.  

Draisaitl is an excellent player who also often plays on McDavids wing and therefore isn’t a direct comparison. However like, Schiefele he didn’t enter the NHL until 20.

Ages 20-21 Leon played in 154 games and scored 128 pts for .83 pts per game.  For his 1st 3 seasons he has played in 232 games with 198 pts for .85 pts per game.  So close but no cigar. Jack at ages 20 & 21 averaged nearly .95 pts per game.

Edited November 7, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Pastrnak plays on the best line in hockey with arguably the best winger in hockey and the best two-way center in hockey 

 

Draisaitl is comprehensively worse than Eichel WITH McDavid and has pitiful metrics away from McD relative 

neither makes Jack look bad and neither would be as good as Jack on this team with its rosters over the past 4 years 

I often wonder when people make comparisons....how would Eichel be playing on a line with McDavid/ Crosby/ Tavares/ etc?

[Drunkard]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Pastrnak plays on the best line in hockey with arguably the best winger in hockey and the best two-way center in hockey 

 

Draisaitl is comprehensively worse than Eichel WITH McDavid and has pitiful metrics away from McD relative 

neither makes Jack look bad and neither would be as good as Jack on this team with its rosters over the past 4 years 

But I thought Eichel was on the hottest line in hockey?

[Drunkard]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I left out Pasternak because he is a winger.  

Draisaitl is an excellent player who also often plays on McDavids wing and therefore isn’t a direct comparison. However like, Schiefele he didn’t enter the NHL until 20.

Ages 20-21 Leon played in 154 games and scored 128 pts for .83 pts per game.  For his 1st 3 seasons he has played in 232 games with 198 pts for .85 pts per game.  So close but no cigar.

Just checking. I have/had no desire to check the figures myself, I just remember Eichel missing out on his ELC/rookie bonus his second year because Draisaitl edged him out in PPG. I don't follow Edmonton but I remember reading that Draisaitl centered his own line in the playoffs that year and he looked good.

And again, I'm not trying to sh*t on Eichel, just point out that there's no universe where Eichel is the epitome of franchise level awesomeness while O'Reilly is just some overpaid nobody. Either Eichel is not as good as you say, or O'Reilly is better than you implied because the production is similar while O'Reilly makes 25% less money.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Alkoholist

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

5 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Just checking. I have/had no desire to check the figures myself, I just remember Eichel missing out on his ELC/rookie bonus his second year because Draisaitl edged him out in PPG. I don't follow Edmonton but I remember reading that Draisaitl centered his own line in the playoffs that year and he looked good.

And again, I'm not trying to sh*t on Eichel, just point out that there's no universe where Eichel is the epitome of franchise level awesomeness while O'Reilly is just some overpaid nobody. Either Eichel is not as good as you say, or O'Reilly is better than you implied because the production is similar while O'Reilly makes 25% less money.

I know it's early and we might revisit this later but, we seem to be doing better without ROR and STL doesn't seem to be better with him (even after we took their scraps off their hands).

Is this just proof that it's a TEAM sport and not based on individual performance? Some players more suited to play as a team than others?

[GASabresIUFAN]

27 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Just checking. I have/had no desire to check the figures myself, I just remember Eichel missing out on his ELC/rookie bonus his second year because Draisaitl edged him out in PPG. I don't follow Edmonton but I remember reading that Draisaitl centered his own line in the playoffs that year and he looked good.

And again, I'm not trying to sh*t on Eichel, just point out that there's no universe where Eichel is the epitome of franchise level awesomeness while O'Reilly is just some overpaid nobody. Either Eichel is not as good as you say, or O'Reilly is better than you implied because the production is similar while O'Reilly makes 25% less money.

I never said ROR was an overpaid nobody.  I said he was an overpaid 2nd line center.  ROR is an excellent player.  He usually gives a good effort, plays both ways, wins draws and puts up 55 to 65 pts a season.  He isn’t an elite skater in a league getting faster.  He isn’t a 30 goal scorer or an elite finisher at even strength.  

He has also been a pain in the rear to both Buffalo and Colorado’s management.  From holdouts to crashing in Tim Horton to lockerroom issues with both franchises.  

As Makes points out Buffalo has been better without him (Colorado as well) and St Louis worse with him.  He may not be responsible for either result (he is playing very well in Stl) but it’s a coincidence that is hard to ignore.   Sometimes there is such a thing as addition by subtraction.  

Also this issue will remain as the season progresses.  Will the Sabres stay in the hunt? How do ROR’s replacements do (Casey position wise and Skinner cap wise).  Can ROR keep up this pace? Can Jack? How does Stl’s season progress?

By the way, I was not an advocate of trading ROR at the end of last season.  I loved the idea of Jack, ROR and Casey as our 123 at center for this season.  I hoped to allow Casey to play the Derek Roy role of young 3rd line center with star young wingers.  However, when Jbot reveiwed last year he must have concluded that there was a rift in the lockerroom between Jack’s guys and Ryan’s guys for the leadership of the team.  He then had no choice but to trade ROR after re-signing Jack to the franchise deal.  He needed a lockerroom all pushing in the same direction and that the team (right or wrong) now belongeg solely to Eichel.  

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Drunkard]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I never said ROR was an overpaid nobody.  I said he was an overpaid 2nd line center.  ROR is an excellent player.  He usually gives a good effort, plays both ways, wins draws and puts up 55 to 65 pts a season.  He isn’t an elite skater in a league getting faster.  He isn’t a 30 goal scorer or an elite finisher at even strength.  

He has also been a pain in the rear to both Buffalo and Colorado’s management.  From holdouts to crashing in Tim Horton to lockerroom issues with both franchises.  

As Makes points out Buffalo has been better without him (Colorado as well) and St Louis worse with him.  He may not be responsible for either result (he is playing very well in Stl) but it’s a coincidence that is hard to ignore.   Sometimes there is such a thing as addition by subtraction.  

Also this issue will remain as the season progresses.  Will the Sabres stay in the hunt? How do ROR’s replacements do (Casey position wise and Skinner cap wise).  Can ROR keep up this pace? Can Jack? How does Stl’s season progress?

Fair enough. I'm tired of defending O'Reilly to be honest. I was actually one of the few people who didn't even want him here to begin with and I was pissed that we traded Zadorov to get him. I still don't like that we traded him or the trash we got in return for him, but that horse probably needs to be sent off to the glue factory already.

As for Eichel, I hope he can reach 80 points because if I have no desire to read people pumping his tires about how awesome he is by clinging to the Tim Connolly point per game extrapolation method. I loved Connolly but he was the all time leader in imaginary points lost due to injury. If that happens again, I will probably just starting skipping any thread that discusses him.

Thanks for the banter. I apologize for whatever time you had to waste pulling up stats to prove your points.

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, Alkoholist said:

Whatever. He's got a $10 million cap hit and has yet to score 60 points in a single season to date. Other young players have out produced him to date and signed for less money. I don't care about point per game extrapolations.

They've paid him for his potential and we need to hope it pays off. I hope it ends up being a deal for the Sabres but that's not proven yet. If he's worth $10 million how is O'Reilly not worth $7.5? It just amazes me how quickly O'Reilly got thrown under the bus around here and suddenly there's revisionist history about how he's a bum and a locker room cancer and how Tage Freaking Thompson and some dead wood depth players were the absolute best we could hope to get for him and we should be grateful he's gone because he sucks anyway. Just because he was a whiny emo crybaby to the press doesn't change how much he contributed on the ice.

He literally just got that cap hit so this is the first season it applies and points isn't the be all end all. PPG is a more valuable number. Or p60 for some. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Fair enough. I'm tired of defending O'Reilly to be honest. I was actually one of the few people who didn't even want him here to begin with and I was pissed that we traded Zadorov to get him. I still don't like that we traded him or the trash we got in return for him, but that horse probably needs to be sent off to the glue factory already.

As for Eichel, I hope he can reach 80 points because if I have no desire to read people pumping his tires about how awesome he is by clinging to the Tim Connolly point per game extrapolation method. I loved Connolly but he was the all time leader in imaginary points lost due to injury. If that happens again, I will probably just starting skipping any thread that discusses him.

Thanks for the banter. I apologize for whatever time you had to waste pulling up stats to prove your points.

That’s why I come her for the friendly banter.  When I first looked at the stats I realized why Jack got paid and why Jbot re-signed him.  Jbot was trying to build a young fast team and  needed Jack as that core piece.  All the other decisions Jbot has made flow from that decision. 

By the way I think everyone believes when they are selling they don’t get enough in return and when they are buying that they paid to much.  

I also think part of the issue that people like you and i have with some of these deals is that they look like the new GM is dumping the old GM’s assets just to put his stamp on the team.  Besides draftees, and other than KO and BOGO, who are both on bad deals, Jbot has systematically dumped, waived, traded etc almost all of GMTM’s players.  TM did the same to DR’s players including draftees, picks and prospects.  

Edited November 7, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Also this issue will remain as the season progresses.  Will the Sabres stay in the hunt? How do ROR’s replacements do (Casey position wise and Skinner cap wise).  Can ROR keep up this pace? Can Jack? How does Stl’s season progress?

 

I always looked at Skinner as being Kane's replacement and ROR's replacements are by committee.

The fact that Berglund, Sobotka, and TT aren't quite living up to expectations are the reason why the trade is being shot down so much. Obviously, if they were playing better everyone would be praising JBot. TT not playing just makes things worse for the "eye test".

Casey looks better each game so that's a plus.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Alkoholist said:

Fair enough. I'm tired of defending O'Reilly to be honest. I was actually one of the few people who didn't even want him here to begin with and I was pissed that we traded Zadorov to get him. I still don't like that we traded him or the trash we got in return for him, but that horse probably needs to be sent off to the glue factory already.

As for Eichel, I hope he can reach 80 points because if I have no desire to read people pumping his tires about how awesome he is by clinging to the Tim Connolly point per game extrapolation method. I loved Connolly but he was the all time leader in imaginary points lost due to injury. If that happens again, I will probably just starting skipping any thread that discusses him.

Thanks for the banter. I apologize for whatever time you had to waste pulling up stats to prove your points.

You're not alone on the ROR train, but it is best to move on for sure. Though you're still allowed to call out people if they say ridiculous things since I can't hold myself to the standard of not doing that ?

And that's not the Connolly extrapolation method - Jack has his points. Calling him a 60 point player in reference to his contract is more obscuring about the situation than calling him a near-PPG player before the contract kicks in, especially because the injuries were of fluke nature - no hockey player in either situation doesn't walk out missing fewer than 20 games with a high ankle sprain. Jack has 130 games of ~130 points that you can't take away since his rookie year, even if you can't "technically" say he "has hit" 80 points in a discrete NHL season.

[Taro T]

42 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

You're not alone on the ROR train, but it is best to move on for sure. Though you're still allowed to call out people if they say ridiculous things since I can't hold myself to the standard of not doing that ?

And that's not the Connolly extrapolation method - Jack has his points. Calling him a 60 point player in reference to his contract is more obscuring about the situation than calling him a near-PPG player before the contract kicks in, especially because the injuries were of fluke nature - no hockey player in either situation doesn't walk out missing fewer than 20 games with a high ankle sprain. Jack has 130 games of ~130 points that you can't take away since his rookie year, even if you can't "technically" say he "has hit" 80 points in a discrete NHL season.

Yep.  The proper, IMHO, player extrapolation would be Briere with the sports hernia .  And that next year he played essentially a full season & remained over a PPG player.

[Weave]

4 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I know it's early and we might revisit this later but, we seem to be doing better without ROR and STL doesn't seem to be better with him (even after we took their scraps off their hands).

Is this just proof that it's a TEAM sport and not based on individual performance? Some players more suited to play as a team than others?

StL traded away 3 honest NHL players to get ROR.  Wouldn't surprise me if they added O'Reilly at the expense of the depth that served them so well. 

Shallow teams don't make playoffs very often.

[Randall Flagg]

25 minutes ago, Weave said:

StL traded away 3 honest NHL players to get ROR.  Wouldn't surprise me if they added O'Reilly at the expense of the depth that served them so well. 

Shallow teams don't make playoffs very often.

That ain't Tage. 

And St. Louis has top 5 depth scoring in the league (and a 1C pacing for 120 points) by the calculation I did a week or so ago (ROR, Perron, and Bozak are upgrades to Berglund, Sobotka, Thompson by any measure on the planet, and Fabbri is back). But Jake Allen has allowed fewer than 3 goals in a game exactly once through 5-5.5 weeks of hockey, and Petro/Bouwmeester have been playing like bottom pairing D/AHL D respectively.
 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Randall Flagg