Not trying to jinx things but....could this team actually be good??

[GASabresIUFAN]

We’ll know more about the answer to this question after the next 4 games home against TB and then a roadie against Wpg, Min and Pit.  Win 3 of 4 and you’ll have your answer.

[bunomatic]

Tampa down...GO SABRES !

[dudacek]

Until The Leafs and Sharks wins are official, there are only three teams in the league with more points than us.

And we beat one of them tonight.

[Doohicksie]

Think back to past years.  How many undisciplined penalties did the Sabres take?  We see very few of those now.  It seems like the hooking/tripping/interference penalties are warranted (prevent a prime scoring chance) or are attempts to play the puck in traffic and someone knocks a skate out.  And even when a roughing call happens, most of the time it falls into the realm of sticking up for a teammate.  I think that's part of the "good team" culture that HCPH is trying to foster- "don't do stupid stuff."

[Taro T]

41 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Think back to past years.  How many undisciplined penalties did the Sabres take?  We see very few of those now.  It seems like the hooking/tripping/interference penalties are warranted (prevent a prime scoring chance) or are attempts to play the puck in traffic and someone knocks a skate out.  And even when a roughing call happens, most of the time it falls into the realm of sticking up for a teammate.  I think that's part of the "good team" culture that HCPH is trying to foster- "don't do stupid stuff."

Partially culture.  But also, they now have guys that can play at this level & for the most part aren't playing 1-2 lines/pairings above their paygrade so they aren't forced to take penalties simply to keep from getting beat 1 on 1 consistently.

[Doohicksie]

I think Kane was at that "pay grade" and he took a lot of penalties he shouldn't have.  And he's no longer here.

Okposo had a stretch of 3rd period penalties recently and it was getting to be a regular thing.  the last couple games he seems to have improved on that.

[nfreeman]

From the Athletic today:  https://theathletic.com/650631/2018/11/13/down-goes-brown-which-of-this-early-season-success-stories-could-be-on-the-verge-of-a-plunge-down-the-standings/
 

Quote

 

After years of being dead in the water by November, the Sabres are at least in the mix.

...

Even seeing them stay in the race all season long before falling just short would have to feel like at least a moral victory.

So can they do that? Maybe. But there are at least a few areas of concern. According to Hockey-Reference’s strength of schedule metric, they’ve had the second easiest schedule in the league so far, with multiple games each against struggling teams like the Senators, Golden Knights and Rangers. They haven’t played the Lightning or the Leafs yet, let alone Western contenders like the Predators, Jets or Wild.

...

On top of that, they’re not a super deep team and they’ve been relatively healthy, so a well-placed injury or two could send them reeling. That’s true of a lot of teams, of course, but if it happened in Buffalo you wonder how quickly that “here we go again” syndrome might kick in.

Why it won’t: None of the numbers on the dashboard that you’d typically look at as signs of a team that’s overachieving – PDO, expected goals, shootout/overtime luck – are really lightning up for the Sabres. If anything, they tell us that this is just about what it looks like: a decent playoff bubble team. And they’re young, so maybe they even get better as they go.

 

 

[josie]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Partially culture.  But also, they now have guys that can play at this level & for the most part aren't playing 1-2 lines/pairings above their paygrade so they aren't forced to take penalties simply to keep from getting beat 1 on 1 consistently.

Yeah, I read an article by Vogl on the Athletic where various guys were interviewed about the team culture and how much it has changed. Little things like adding photos of past Sabres greats in the dressing room, asking Drury (I think it was him) to talk on videos, give them a reason to respect and want to wear the logo and jersey. How the guys are starting to trust and respect each other on the ice, and how in the past they were just a group of hockey players rather than a team. 

We've discussed the malaise that was in the locker room the last few years (especially last year with mental health issues). It seems, by all accounts, to be lifting.

It won't mean instant success but it's a positive in my book. 

Just now, nfreeman said:

From the Athletic today:  https://theathletic.com/650631/2018/11/13/down-goes-brown-which-of-this-early-season-success-stories-could-be-on-the-verge-of-a-plunge-down-the-standings/
 

 

I read that last night. DGB does good summaries. I feel that's pretty accurate. It's always nice that most bloggers/comedians have no real ill will towards us finally succeeding. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

I think Kane was at that "pay grade" and he took a lot of penalties he shouldn't have.  And he's no longer here.

Okposo had a stretch of 3rd period penalties recently and it was getting to be a regular thing.  the last couple games he seems to have improved on that.

 

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

I think Kane was at that "pay grade" and he took a lot of penalties he shouldn't have.  And he's no longer here.

Okposo had a stretch of 3rd period penalties recently and it was getting to be a regular thing.  the last couple games he seems to have improved on that.

(Not sure why you've been double quoted.  Oooops.)

1st off: there was a reason that Kane found himself on the 3rd line quite often in Atlanta & Winnipeg & should've been there way more often than he was in Buffalo.  He has ALL the physical tools to be a #1 guy but either the vision or hockey sense keeps him from playing like a top liner, so, no, he was oftentimes playing slotted in above his paygrade.

2nd, regarding Okposo, he's on pace for far and away a career most for penalty minutes this year.  In what manner does that support your thesis?

And, I'd agreed that culture plays a role.  Having good hockey players plays a bigger role IMHO.

[Doohicksie]

58 minutes ago, Taro T said:

2nd, regarding Okposo, he's on pace for far and away a career most for penalty minutes this year.  In what manner does that support your thesis?

It doesn't.  But how are they going to trade him?

Besides, other than the rash of penalties, he brings a lot more hockey sense than Kaner did.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

It doesn't.  But how are they going to trade him?

Besides, other than the rash of penalties, he brings a lot more hockey sense than Kaner did.

Ummm, who brought up trading Okposo and what does any of this have to do with "team culture?"

[Doohicksie]

Eh.  Our thoughts are getting tangled up.

[mjd1001]

On 11/4/2018 at 10:23 PM, ... said:

Still need work on the D.  Scandella needs to be replaced.  I hate to say this, but I think I'd like to see them trade Samson.  I don't think he fits the team.  

Scandella I think it OK. A top pairing D-man on a cup winning team? No, but I don't think he is a weakness.

I am beginning to agree with you on Reinhart.  He HAS to put up goals and points to be productive..he doesn't add much else.  He's not a good penalty killer....not a faceoff specialist (you can't even rely on him to take draws...his career percentage is just above 30%). He lacks the speed to help the transition game through the neutral zone...doesn't drive possession...not physical. Even his scoring is usually on the powerplay, he doesn't give you much even strength. (for his career, he averages only 12 even strength goals per 82 games.)   Basically, if he isn't scoring...he isn't of much use at all.  

Right now through the middle of November, he is on pace for 9 goals and 50 assists.  Not enough goals. The 50 assist pace is  nice, but almost half of them are on the Power Play.  

The kid has offensive talent, but that is the only way he helps you.  I need to see him on a 20-25 goal pace to see his value to this team.

Edited November 15, 2018 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Scandella I think it OK. A top pairing D-man on a cup winning team? No, but I don't think he is a weakness.

I am beginning to agree with you on Reinhart.  He HAS to put up goals and points to be productive..he doesn't add much else.  He's not a good penalty killer....not a faceoff specialist (you can't even rely on him to take draws...his career percentage is just above 30%). He lacks the speed to help the transition game through the neutral zone...doesn't drive possession...not physical. Even his scoring is usually on the powerplay, he doesn't give you much even strength. (for his career, he averages only 12 even strength goals per 82 games.)   Basically, if he isn't scoring...he isn't of much use at all.  

Right now through the middle of November, he is on pace for 9 goals and 50 assists.  Not enough goals. The 50 assist pace is  nice, but almost half of them are on the Power Play.  

The kid has offensive talent, but that is the only way he helps you.  I need to see him on a 20-25 goal pace to see his value to this team.

I'm sorry but I don't agree.  Saying the only way reinhart helps is by putting up points has been proven wrong by stats multiple times. There's a lot of small things he does very well that go unnoticed. His defensive game is quite good and his offensive awareness is very good. He lacks the speed to help the transition? Seriously? He transitions fast and fires passes ahead if needed. You're watching rookie Reinhart because you aren't describing the player I'm watching. He's not a 5v5 liability and idc if half his points come on the PP because he's a key cog in it. Yup he needs more goals but if he put up 15g and 50a this year I'd be ecstatic. 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Scandella I think it OK. A top pairing D-man on a cup winning team? No, but I don't think he is a weakness.

I am beginning to agree with you on Reinhart.  He HAS to put up goals and points to be productive..he doesn't add much else.  He's not a good penalty killer....not a faceoff specialist (you can't even rely on him to take draws...his career percentage is just above 30%). He lacks the speed to help the transition game through the neutral zone...doesn't drive possession...not physical. Even his scoring is usually on the powerplay, he doesn't give you much even strength. (for his career, he averages only 12 even strength goals per 82 games.)   Basically, if he isn't scoring...he isn't of much use at all.  

Right now through the middle of November, he is on pace for 9 goals and 50 assists.  Not enough goals. The 50 assist pace is  nice, but almost half of them are on the Power Play.  

The kid has offensive talent, but that is the only way he helps you.  I need to see him on a 20-25 goal pace to see his value to this team.

I think there are some people who judge hockey players by the obvious things: who they knock over, who they skate past and how hard they shoot.

Drives possession can be an ambiguous phrase. I see the Sabres spending more time with the puck in the offensive zone when Sam is on the ice. I see players playing better with him than they do without him. I saw him making two plays in the last three minutes against the Canucks to steal that game. Is there a better winger on the Sabres at turning an up-the-boards from a defenceman into a rush? At facilitating zone entries? At making plays from behind the net? At finding the open man? At being in the right place? At tipping pucks?

Did you know that he is currently producing at the same low 1st line rate as Jake Guentzel, Richard Rakell, Evander Kane, Joe Pavelski, Victor Arvidsson, Kyle Connor, Jonathan Toews, Jamie Benn, Vladimir Tarasenko, TJ Oshie, Jonathan Drouin...I could go on? Did you know that 50 assists can put you in the top 25 in the league? Even if he is “just” a 20-goal, 50-point scorer who does nothing else, who is going to replace that? If he is just PP specialist, who is going to replace that?

Why are we getting rid of good players?

Edited November 15, 2018 by dudacek

[...]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think there are some people who judge hockey players by the obvious things: who they knock over, who they skate past and how hard they shoot.

Drives possession can be an ambiguous phrase. I see the Sabres spending more time with the puck in the offensive zone when Sam is on the ice. I see players playing better with him than they do without him. I saw him making two plays in the last three minutes against the Canucks to steal that game. Is there a better winger on the Sabres at turning an up-the-boards from a defenceman into a rush? At facilitating zone entries? At making plays from behind the net? At finding the open man? At being in the right place? At tipping pucks?

Did you know that he is currently producing at the same rate low 1st line rate as Jake Guentzel, Richard Rakell, Evander Kane, Joe Pavelski, Victor Arvidsson, Kyle Connor, Johnsathan Toews, Jamie Benn, Vladimir Tarasenko, TJ Oshie, Johnathan Drouin...I could go on? Did you know that 50 assists can put you in the top 25 in the league? Even if he is “just” a 20-goal, 50-point scorer who does nothing else, who is going to replace that? If he is just PP specialist, who is going to replace that?

Why are we getting rid of good players?

Uhm.  I don't recall if you supported getting rid of Kane and ROR.  They were/are good players.  The Sabres booted them - Sabres are better.  Stats aren't everything.  If they don't fit, they don't fit. 

And by that I mean the overall end-game for the team.  You could put him on the third line and see what happens.  Or, is his best use as an asset to draw in a better fitting player?  He's not scoring at the necessary rate.

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by ...

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think there are some people who judge hockey players by the obvious things: who they knock over, who they skate past and how hard they shoot.

Drives possession can be an ambiguous phrase. I see the Sabres spending more time with the puck in the offensive zone when Sam is on the ice. I see players playing better with him than they do without him. I saw him making two plays in the last three minutes against the Canucks to steal that game. Is there a better winger on the Sabres at turning an up-the-boards from a defenceman into a rush? At facilitating zone entries? At making plays from behind the net? At finding the open man? At being in the right place? At tipping pucks?

Did you know that he is currently producing at the same rate low 1st line rate as Jake Guentzel, Richard Rakell, Evander Kane, Joe Pavelski, Victor Arvidsson, Kyle Connor, Johnsathan Toews, Jamie Benn, Vladimir Tarasenko, TJ Oshie, Johnathan Drouin...I could go on? Did you know that 50 assists can put you in the top 25 in the league? Even if he is “just” a 20-goal, 50-point scorer who does nothing else, who is going to replace that? If he is just PP specialist, who is going to replace that?

[dudacek]

When he generally elevates his linemates, how is he not fitting?

When he puts up borderline first line numbers at a below-average salary, how is he not fitting?

When he rarely takes penalties, and never misses games how is he not fitting?

When he is best buds with your captain and pointed to by your coach as evolving into a leader how is he not fitting?

When he puts up 10 points (7ES) and goes plus 4 in the past 11 games (not playing on the first line) as your team rolls off a 7-2-2 streak, how is he not fitting?

Why would you put him on the 3rd line when he is an effective complement on your first and the best available catalyst for your second?

Not producing? He’s put up around 50 points in his past 60 games. What kind of production do you want? I’ll trade anyone for a better-fitting player, but who is that?

Edited November 15, 2018 by dudacek

[mjd1001]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think there are some people who judge hockey players by the obvious things: who they knock over, who they skate past and how hard they shoot.

Drives possession can be an ambiguous phrase. I see the Sabres spending more time with the puck in the offensive zone when Sam is on the ice. I see players playing better with him than they do without him. I saw him making two plays in the last three minutes against the Canucks to steal that game. Is there a better winger on the Sabres at turning an up-the-boards from a defenceman into a rush? At facilitating zone entries? At making plays from behind the net? At finding the open man? At being in the right place? At tipping pucks?

Did you know that he is currently producing at the same low 1st line rate as Jake Guentzel, Richard Rakell, Evander Kane, Joe Pavelski, Victor Arvidsson, Kyle Connor, Jonathan Toews, Jamie Benn, Vladimir Tarasenko, TJ Oshie, Jonathan Drouin...I could go on? Did you know that 50 assists can put you in the top 25 in the league? Even if he is “just” a 20-goal, 50-point scorer who does nothing else, who is going to replace that? If he is just PP specialist, who is going to replace that?

Why are we getting rid of good players?

I see the opposite...when Sam is on the ice...UNLESS he is with Jack and Skinner, I see the puck with less time in the offensive zone than it is in the Neutral zone or the Sabres end. When the puck is in the Sabres own zone..I don't see him as someone who helps the D get the puck out as well as some of the other forwards.  Stats aren't everything, but the reason I bring them up is I SEE him not being a player that does well in a lot of areas, and the stats back up what I see with my own eyes.

And as far as facilitating zone entires?  That is one thing I think is one of his major areas where is is NOT good.

[inkman]

18 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Eh.  Our thoughts are getting tangled up.

This is me. Constantly.

[nfreeman]

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm sorry but I don't agree.  Saying the only way reinhart helps is by putting up points has been proven wrong by stats multiple times. There's a lot of small things he does very well that go unnoticed. His defensive game is quite good and his offensive awareness is very good. He lacks the speed to help the transition? Seriously? He transitions fast and fires passes ahead if needed. You're watching rookie Reinhart because you aren't describing the player I'm watching. He's not a 5v5 liability and idc if half his points come on the PP because he's a key cog in it. Yup he needs more goals but if he put up 15g and 50a this year I'd be ecstatic. 

As to the bolded:  no.

As to his stats being overweighted to the PP -- this is fine for the regular season but bodes poorly for his effectiveness in the playoffs.

 

14 hours ago, ... said:

Uhm.  I don't recall if you supported getting rid of Kane and ROR.  They were/are good players.  The Sabres booted them - Sabres are better.  Stats aren't everything.  If they don't fit, they don't fit.  

And by that I mean the overall end-game for the team.  You could put him on the third line and see what happens.  Or, is his best use as an asset to draw in a better fitting player?  He's not scoring at the necessary rate.

 

I would finish off the bolded sentence with "...sufficient to justify a fat long-term contract."

Since the Sabres have Reino on a relatively cheap short-term contract, and since JBott and Howie have spoken repeatedly about how his is part of the long-term solution, indicating that he was not part of the locker room dysfunction of prior years, I see no reason to move him out.

UNLESS, of course, trading him yields Nylander or Nick Leddy or other clearly superior player whose current team needs to move him for whatever reason.  That is a pretty low probability but not impossible.

[LGR4GM]

Reinhart drives possession so, yes. 

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

As to the bolded:  no.

As to his stats being overweighted to the PP -- this is fine for the regular season but bodes poorly for his effectiveness in the playoffs.

Reinhart has both of his goals at EV and 6 of his 11 assists at EV. 61.5% of his points are coming at even currently, that seems pretty good. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by LGR4GM

[...]

24 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I would finish off the bolded sentence with "...sufficient to justify a fat long-term contract."

Since the Sabres have Reino on a relatively cheap short-term contract, and since JBott and Howie have spoken repeatedly about how his is part of the long-term solution, indicating that he was not part of the locker room dysfunction of prior years, I see no reason to move him out.

UNLESS, of course, trading him yields Nylander or Nick Leddy or other clearly superior player whose current team needs to move him for whatever reason.  That is a pretty low probability but not impossible.

Fundamentally on the bolded.

FWIW, I'm perfectly happy to be wrong.  After preseason I thought TT would do a better job than he has.  I have since revised my opinion on him and it's clear he needs to go down. Samson has, overall, under-performed as far as I see it.   

Obviously, there are other players on the roster who should go long before Samson, ideally.  My issue is that we still need deeper scoring and Samson is one of the guys who should be providing that.  IMHO, if he's going to be a utility guy, I don't think there's a need for yet another one on the roster. 

In a perfect world, he's the second line's Pominville or a third line threat.  I don't like how he's being used now.  He still has value as a potential whatever on another roster and he would likely get the biggest return of the guys not named Eichel or Skinner.

I'll have to look up the metrics on Samson for this season so far when I have time.  I have doubts he's any better at puck possession than anyone else on lines 2-4, and I have doubts he makes all players better when he's on the ice.

 

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by ...

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Reinhart drives possession so, yes. 

Reinhart has both of his goals at EV and 6 of his 11 assists at EV. 61.5% of his points are coming at even currently, that seems pretty good. 

Reino does not "drive possession."  He has the 2nd-worst Corsi for % among all Sabre forwards who are playing regularly (ahead of only Sobotka).  He's also got the 3rd-worst Fenwick for % (ahead of Sobotka and Mitts).

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BUF/2019.html#all_stats_adv_rs

[nfreeman]

49 minutes ago, ... said:

Fundamentally on the bolded.

FWIW, I'm perfectly happy to be wrong.  After preseason I thought TT would do a better job than he has.  I have since revised my opinion on him and it's clear he needs to go down. Samson has, overall, under-performed as far as I see it.   

Obviously, there are other players on the roster who should go long before Samson, ideally.  My issue is that we still need deeper scoring and Samson is one of the guys who should be providing that.  IMHO, if he's going to be a utility guy, I don't think there's a need for yet another one on the roster. 

In a perfect world, he's the second line's Pominville or a third line threat.  I don't like how he's being used now.  He still has value as a potential whatever on another roster and he would likely get the biggest return of the guys not named Eichel or Skinner.

I'll have to look up the metrics on Samson for this season so far when I have time.  I have doubts he's any better at puck possession than anyone else on lines 2-4, and I have doubts he makes all players better when he's on the ice.

 

 

Well, he does have 13 pts in 18 games.  I think goals are more important than assists, and ES scoring is more important than PP scoring, so in that sense he's not delivering enough of what the Sabres really need, but he is contributing offense.

(I'd also point out that before he erupted at the end of the Canucks game, it would've been fair to characterize his start to this season as poor.)