Not trying to jinx things but....could this team actually be good??

[Sabres Fan in NS]

This is why I am not a 'fancy stat' guy.

Samson has looked great all month, which is only half over.  He is scoring well and buzzing around all over the ice.

[dudacek]

Real interesting fancy stat analysis of the Sabres forwards here by Ryan Stimson:

https://theathletic.com/656019/2018/11/15/stimson-analyzing-where-players-excel-to-determine-the-sabres-best-offensive-line-combinations/

Most interesting stats relevant to this conversation:

Reinhart leads the team in dangerous shot opportunity creation per 60 (taking or setting them up) at 5 a game (double Jack’s total and most of the other forwards as well) and is 3rd in overall primary shot contribution per 60 (behind Jack and Evan).

He also leads the team in zone entries per 60, possession zone exits per 60 and has, by far, the lowest failure rate of any Sabre forward on his exits. Basically, 19 out 20 times Sam has a chance to get the puck out of our zone, he does. And 55 per cent of that time the team maintains possession while he exits. He successfully enters the opposition zone an average of more than 27 times per 60 minutes.

Edited November 15, 2018 by dudacek

[Thorner]

On 11/15/2018 at 2:11 PM, nfreeman said:

Well, he does have 13 pts in 18 games.  I think goals are more important than assists, and ES scoring is more important than PP scoring, so in that sense he's not delivering enough of what the Sabres really need, but he is contributing offense.

(I'd also point out that before he erupted at the end of the Canucks game, it would've been fair to characterize his start to this season as poor.)

Still wouldn't call 10 points in 16 games before Vancouver "poor". It was a pace that would have set a career mark in points. 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Thorny

[mjd1001]

On 11/15/2018 at 3:14 PM, New Scotland (NS) said:

This is why I am not a 'fancy stat' guy.

Samson has looked great all month, which is only half over.  He is scoring well and buzzing around all over the ice.

I'm not rooting against Reiinhart, I want him to do well, but I'm a bit surprised so many people are defending him to the degree they are.  All I was saying is, I need more from him..at some point that 'buzzing all over the ice' has to lead to more production, and that includes even strength production.  I also agree with the 'fancy stats stuff', I find analytics interesting, but they have to support results.

Why do I need more from Reinhart?  He is the 2nd overall pick, and in his 4th full year (5th year from being drafted).  This isn't Baptiste or Bailey we are talking about, he is the 2nd overall pick.

So where do I want to see improvement?

1.) Defensively

-He is not good.  He ins't trusted for much ice time to protect a lead late in the game. He basically never kills penalties.  He is awful at faceoffs.  While a lot of people don't like +/-...I'd rather somoene be a plus rather than a minus...and he is a minus.  Finally, with my own eyes ignoring all the 'fancy stats' and production, I see someone who doesn't win many battles in the D-zone and doesn't contribute much defensively.

2.)  Even strength

-Average at best...he just doesn't produce even strength well. 35% of his points come on the PowerPlay (this season he is SLIGHTLY better but still close to 30%) More worrisome is almost 45% of all his goals come on the Powerplay. What does that mean for even strength? He scores about 12 goals even strength per 82 games.   Awful?  No.  Do I expect Eichel or McDavid numbers?  No, but I need more than 12 even strength goals per year from that high of a draft pick and someone that gets so much even strength ice time.

3.) Power play

-Well, if he doesn't contribute a lot even strength, then he must be a good power play specialist, right?  Not really. 9 PP goals and 8 PP assists per 82 games.  Pretty good?  Well, not bad, but nothing special for someone who gets regular PP time.  Since he has come into the league, that puts him about 92nd in the league in PP production. Since he came into the league, he is 67th in Power play time among forwards, but 92nd in points.  Basically, while he does get you points...he is 'below average' among NHL forwards who get regular PP time.

 

So is he playing better this year?  The last few games? Maybe.  I don't go TOO deep into analytics as much as some others on this site...but if the analytics say he is playing better...great, I WANT that, but I need to see it lead to production soon.  I'm not rooting against him...once again, I want to see more from him.

[matter2003]

All I know is this team has SOMETHING that is drastically different in their makeup from previous years. I'm not sure if its confidence, maturity, getting the wrong people out of the locker room who used to poison their minds with garbage(looking squarely at you ROR), or whatever it might be, but this team believes they are going to win every game.

It does help when you add a lot more fast, skilled players too...and a goalie that, you know, can actually stop a puck in a shootout.

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

All I know is this team has SOMETHING that is drastically different in their makeup from previous years. I'm not sure if its confidence, maturity, getting the wrong people out of the locker room who used to poison their minds with garbage(looking squarely at you ROR), or whatever it might be, but this team believes they are going to win every game.

It does help when you add a lot more fast, skilled players too...and a goalie that, you know, can actually stop a puck in a shootout.

Nailed it

Brilliant, insightful 

[mjd1001]

23 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

All I know is this team has SOMETHING that is drastically different in their makeup from previous years. I'm not sure if its confidence, maturity, getting the wrong people out of the locker room who used to poison their minds with garbage(looking squarely at you ROR), or whatever it might be, but this team believes they are going to win every game.

It does help when you add a lot more fast, skilled players too...and a goalie that, you know, can actually stop a puck in a shootout.

I have no idea what the deal was with O'Reilly.  From all accounts, he is a good player, and the coaches he had (has) trust him in every aspect of the game.  BUT...Colorado seemed pretty eager to get rid of him to the Sabres...after a few years with the Sabres they were OK with letting him go....and shortly after he left both teams he left got better (took a year with Colorado), and the teams he has played on have not done well.  I'd like someone to speak up (ex teamate, front office person) and let us know if there was anything a 'little different' about him behind closed doors.

[Weave]

8 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I have no idea what the deal was with O'Reilly.  From all accounts, he is a good player, and the coaches he had (has) trust him in every aspect of the game.  BUT...Colorado seemed pretty eager to get rid of him to the Sabres...after a few years with the Sabres they were OK with letting him go....and shortly after he left both teams he left got better (took a year with Colorado), and the teams he has played on have not done well.  I'd like someone to speak up (ex teamate, front office person) and let us know if there was anything a 'little different' about him behind closed doors.

Colorado wasn't eager to get rid of him.  His salary demands were higher than Colorado was willing to pay. 

[PerreaultForever]

I'm not so much anti-Reinhart, I just think he's not a great fit on that line. Skinner goes down low and to the net and Reinhart picks up most of his point from positioning himself well, usually near or in front of the net. You don't want 2 guys going to the same area all the time. Ideally you want a fast sniper on that line with Skinner and Eichel and for now Pommer fits that better. 

Mittlestadt is a playmaker, so having Reinhart go to the net on that line makes sense to me. 

[calti]

11 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I have no idea what the deal was with O'Reilly.  From all accounts, he is a good player, and the coaches he had (has) trust him in every aspect of the game.  BUT...Colorado seemed pretty eager to get rid of him to the Sabres...after a few years with the Sabres they were OK with letting him go....and shortly after he left both teams he left got better (took a year with Colorado), and the teams he has played on have not done well.  I'd like someone to speak up (ex teamate, front office person) and let us know if there was anything a 'little different' about him behind closed doors.

could it be the carmelo anthony,demarcus cousins effect?

[GASabresIUFAN]

@matter2003 I think the guys have answered your question the last 3 games. I shocked, amazed and thrilled with this team’s effort.  Now if they could just start the game the way they finish them.

Edited November 18, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Doohicksie]

I'm willing to call it tonight.  If the Sabres convincingly beat the Pens, they're good.  If the Pens win, the Sabres have a ways to go.  If the Sabres are a good team, this is a game they should be able to win, no doubt.

[bob_sauve28]

31 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I'm willing to call it tonight.  If the Sabres convincingly beat the Pens, they're good.  If the Pens win, the Sabres have a ways to go.  If the Sabres are a good team, this is a game they should be able to win, no doubt.

What if Sabres win in a shootout?? 

[Doohicksie]

[matter2003]

F it. I'm gonna say it. This team is making the playoffs...they are starting to remind me of the team coming out of the lockout with all the young guys playing big roles...

Edited November 20, 2018 by matter2003

[LGR4GM]

19 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I'm willing to call it tonight.  If the Sabres convincingly beat the Pens, they're good.  If the Pens win, the Sabres have a ways to go.  If the Sabres are a good team, this is a game they should be able to win, no doubt.

What if the Sabres get down 4-1 in the second and come back to win 5-4 in ot? 

[Doohicksie]

I think a corner has been turned, but still to early to say the Sabres have arrived.  Clearly, though, they're going in the right direction.

Several of the players have mentioned how tough training camp was this year, and how hard they worked on conditioning.  I think this is the biggest factor in these come-from-behind wins.  For a period or two, traditionally better teams have their way with us, but in the end the conditioning gives them the energy they need to close out games.  The Pens players were gassed virtually the entire 3rd period.  They were in Alamo mode and the Sabres just kept coming at them.  Thinking back to the Mittelstadt goal that tied it, the puck was not clearly controlled by Buffalo until Bogo's almost desperation keep-in at the line went to Okposo who found Mitts.  Early in the game, chances are the Pens win that puck battle along the boards, but not late.

[josie]

I don't like the way we are winning, but we ARE winning, if not on sheer tenacity alone, which is something I haven't seen in years. 

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think a corner has been turned, but still to early to say the Sabres have arrived.  Clearly, though, they're going in the right direction.

Several of the players have mentioned how tough training camp was this year, and hoin hard they worked on conditioning.  I think this is the biggest factor in these come-from-behind wins.  For a period or two, traditionally better teams have their way with us, but in the end the conditioning gives them the energy they need to close out games.  The Pens players were gassed virtually the entire 3rd period.  They were in Alamo mode and the Sabres just kept coming at them.  Thinking back to the Mittelstadt goal that tied it, the puck was not clearly controlled by Buffalo until Bogo's almost desperation keep-in at the line went to Okposo who found Mitts.  Early in the game, chances are the Pens win that puck battle along the boards, but not late.

Conditioning to a degree could definitely be a factor.  I'd chalk a fair amount of that to youth itself.  (Except possibly for Winnipeg, pretty sure most all the teams the Sabres have been playing are older than  the Sabres (their top lines definitely are).)

Coaches can't put the guys through 2 a days & the like anymore in training camp.  So, though we'd like to credit the coaches with the players' conditioning, pretty sure they weren't the ones actually running the off-season stuff (though they nearly certainly told the players what they'd like them to work on) & they can only push the in-season conditioning so much.

[Doohicksie]

Let's put it this way:  I think conditioning was a negative in past years.  No longer so.

[Thorner]

You are what your record says you are. Sure they are winning some very tight games, and for a vet team you'd be tempted to look at that as unsustainable, but they weren't going to go from last place to blowing teams out. That'll come. These close games are all part of the process of watching a young team grow. 

[Ogrish]

7 wins in a row.  The last time they had a streak like this was 2006 when they won 10 in a row to start the season.

Up to #8 in the power rankings and tied for 2nd in the division, 3rd in the LEAGUE!

I do believe this team is legit and that they have a lot of room to get even better.

I've been a fan since '71, and I have been this hopeful only 2 or 3 times.

Go SABRES!

 

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

You are what your record says you are. Sure they are winning some very tight games, and for a vet team you'd be tempted to look at that as unsustainable, but they weren't going to go from last place to blowing teams out. That'll come. These close games are all part of the process of watching a young team grow. 

It's only unsustainable if they don't sustain it ?

[PerreaultForever]

Remember last year everybody was asking how did the Leafs get so good so fast and why can't we do that, was it Babcock etc etc.

Well, maybe this year it's us.  

[Thorner]

This streak will be remembered as the birth of this new era of Sabres hockey.