How Long Does JBot Get?

[mjd1001]

On 10/20/2018 at 1:41 PM, bob_sauve28 said:

I like what JBot has done so far. He seems to have added depth to the team at most positions, gotten picks that will further increase depth and talent and put us on the long term path to success, IMO. Building a foundation takes time, and the serious talent in the organization is very young. This is going to take time, but it will be worth the wait 

I agree.

I also think Housley should get more time, even if this collapse continues the rest of the year, although I would not be terribly upset if they did make a coaching change.

I am really becoming less and less interested in this team though.  For the last few months, they have been brutal to watch.  

The only reason we have Cable TV is to get the Sabres games on MSG...just about everything else we watch would be over the air or streaming.  I really think at the end of this season we are going to drop cable again.  If this team can catch my interest enough in the future then maybe I'll get it back, but they are going to have to be a very good team in a very good spot in the standings pretty late in the year for that to happen.

[Jacque Richard]

Awhile here. As long as the seats are full. Pegula’s know the market here. Fans will show up.

[dudacek]

Here's my big issue with JBot so far: his total failure to fill out the forward ranks.

We don't need to debate his initial season: Pominville was OK. Griffith, Pouliot, Nolan and Josefson are all out of the league this year and shouldn't have been in it last year. Scott Wilson remains roster filler.

It was abundantly clear we needed a huge upgrade in our middle six. Botterill agreed and even took the drastic step of trading our 2nd best player to help make it happen. In came Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka, who we pencilled in for maybe 50 goals. In came Mittelstadt and Thompson, the former touted enough that we were reasonably crossing out fingers for another 30 between the two. With Skinner on board to replace Kane, those 80 goals should more than compensate for O'Reilly.

Thompson, Mittelstadt, Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka will be lucky if they combine for half their hoped-for totals. Right now they have combined for 31. ROR has 24 on his own.

Our middle six scorers this year so far compared to last:

Kane 20/Pominville 14

Pominville 16/Okposo 10

Okposo 15/Mittlestadt 9

Pouliot 13/Sheary 9

Girgensons 7/Rodrigues 8

Rodrigues 7/Thompson 7

Never mind dramatically improving our middle six scoring, it may actually be worse. Botterill has failed in this task two years in a row.

It's a results based business and he needs to start showing some better results.

[GASabresIUFAN]

56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Here's my big issue with JBot so far: his total failure to fill out the forward ranks.

We don't need to debate his initial season: Pominville was OK. Griffith, Pouliot, Nolan and Josefson are all out of the league this year and shouldn't have been in it last year. Scott Wilson remains roster filler.

It was abundantly clear we needed a huge upgrade in our middle six. Botterill agreed and even took the drastic step of trading our 2nd best player to help make it happen. In came Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka, who we pencilled in for maybe 50 goals. In came Mittelstadt and Thompson, the former touted enough that we were reasonably crossing out fingers for another 30 between the two. With Skinner on board to replace Kane, those 80 goals should more than compensate for O'Reilly.

Thompson, Mittelstadt, Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka will be lucky if they combine for half their hoped-for totals. Right now they have combined for 31. ROR has 24 on his own.

Our middle six scorers this year so far compared to last:

Kane 20/Pominville 14

Pominville 16/Okposo 10

Okposo 15/Mittlestadt 9

Pouliot 13/Sheary 9

Girgensons 7/Rodrigues 8

Rodrigues 7/Thompson 7

Never mind dramatically improving our middle six scoring, it may actually be worse. Botterill has failed in this task two years in a row.

It's a results based business and he needs to start showing some better results.

Yet our goals have increased year over year and over the last year of TM, both by the defense and by the forwards.

We have 181 goals ytd in 63 games.  2.87 goals per game. Goals by forwards 2.43

last season we scored 199 (2.43). Goals by forwards 2.20

the year before we scored 201 (2.45). Goals by forward 2.24

[PerreaultForever]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yet our goals have increased year over year and over the last year of TM, both by the defense and by the forwards.

We have 181 goals ytd in 63 games.  2.87 goals per game. Goals by forwards 2.43

last season we scored 199 (2.43). Goals by forwards 2.20

the year before we scored 201 (2.45). Goals by forward 2.24

Don't forget the D has also scored more this year.

For me, this is the first year in a long time where I see an actual team structure and the basis for how we will play this game in the future.  Previous teams always seemed aimless and disjointed. Everyone criticized Housley last year because the on ice team didn't play the way he said they would when he was hired. Now they do.

Do they execute it fully? Absolutely not. We simply lack talent up and down the line up, but the system and the structure has taken shape and it's a foundation to build on. I do not want to go backwards by abandoning it. It will work when we have more talent. 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yet our goals have increased year over year and over the last year of TM, both by the defense and by the forwards.

We have 181 goals ytd in 63 games.  2.87 goals per game. Goals by forwards 2.43

last season we scored 199 (2.43). Goals by forwards 2.20

the year before we scored 201 (2.45). Goals by forward 2.24

There's no doubt the team is better, but the only JBot forward playing a role is Skinner.

The offensive improvements are otherwise largely Jack and Sam having career years and more attack being pushed by the back end. If you want to give Jason credit for adding Dahlin and keeping Bogo and McCabe healthy, OK.

And to be clear, I give JBot some credit for the above improvements, even if he has done a poor job so far adding middle six forwards.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Here's my big issue with JBot so far: his total failure to fill out the forward ranks.

We don't need to debate his initial season: Pominville was OK. Griffith, Pouliot, Nolan and Josefson are all out of the league this year and shouldn't have been in it last year. Scott Wilson remains roster filler.

It was abundantly clear we needed a huge upgrade in our middle six. Botterill agreed and even took the drastic step of trading our 2nd best player to help make it happen. In came Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka, who we pencilled in for maybe 50 goals. In came Mittelstadt and Thompson, the former touted enough that we were reasonably crossing out fingers for another 30 between the two. With Skinner on board to replace Kane, those 80 goals should more than compensate for O'Reilly.

Thompson, Mittelstadt, Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka will be lucky if they combine for half their hoped-for totals. Right now they have combined for 31. ROR has 24 on his own.

Our middle six scorers this year so far compared to last:

Kane 20/Pominville 14

Pominville 16/Okposo 10

Okposo 15/Mittlestadt 9

Pouliot 13/Sheary 9

Girgensons 7/Rodrigues 8

Rodrigues 7/Thompson 7

Never mind dramatically improving our middle six scoring, it may actually be worse. Botterill has failed in this task two years in a row.

It's a results based business and he needs to start showing some better results.

Just asking but....is there a reason why you said "with Skinner on board to replace Kane" and then compare Kane 20/ Pominville 14? Somehow I must have lost something in the translation.

[Jacque Richard]

Boy take away skinner goals the Sabres would be in the basement

Botterill got hosed in the #90 trade. Oh well. #90 is in a better place.

[Weave]

Regarding the increase in scoring... there has been a league wide increase in scoring this season.  You have to account for that.

 

Last year Buffalo finished last in the league with GF with 199 goals.

Right now there are 9 teams in the league with fewer goals for than Buffalo.  I'd call that real progress.

 

But I still think Duda's point still stands.  The lack of improvement (and measurable decline for that matter) in the production of the middle 6 is alarming.  He needs to show that he can correct it next season.

3 minutes ago, Jacque Richard said:

Boy take away skinner goals the Sabres would be in the basement

Botterill got hosed in the #90 trade. Oh well. #90 is in a better place.

Take away Skinner's goals and there are still 3 teams below us in GF.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Just asking but....is there a reason why you said "with Skinner on board to replace Kane" and then compare Kane 20/ Pominville 14? Somehow I must have lost something in the translation.

Sure. I look at it as Botterill bringing in Skinner as a first-line LW to replace Kane in that role, not as a secondary scorer.

But because I was talking about how he addressed middle six scoring, it seemed to make sense to compare scorers 4-9 last year and this year.

Kane was 4th last year behind Reinhart, Eichel and O'Reilly.

Pominville is fourth this year behind Skinner, Eichel and Reinhart.

Edited February 28, 2019 by dudacek

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sure. I look at it as Botterill bringing in Skinner as a first-line LW to replace Kane in that role, not as a secondary scorer.

But because I was talking about how he addressed middle six scoring, it seemed to make sense to compare scorers 4-9 last year and this year.

Kane was 4th last year behind Reinhart, Eichel and O'Reilly.

Pominville is fourth this year behind Skinner, Eichel and Reinhart.

Got it and it makes sense.

Just another thought.....if Skinner gets 8 more goals he will equal Kane/ ROR goal production for last year on Sabres.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Kane wasn't 4th, he actually lead the team in g/gp. He was traded with 20 games left and would have lead the team in goals had he stayed.  He was on pace for about 28 goals last season.

 

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, Jacque Richard said:

Boy take away skinner goals the Sabres would be in the basement

Botterill got hosed in the #90 trade. Oh well. #90 is in a better place.

I think if you take away most teams top goal scorer it would drastically alter their team totals. But hey, you just want to complain about something so don't let facts and nuance stop you. 

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

Sure. I look at it as Botterill bringing in Skinner as a first-line LW to replace Kane in that role, not as a secondary scorer.

But because I was talking about how he addressed middle six scoring, it seemed to make sense to compare scorers 4-9 last year and this year.

Kane was 4th last year behind Reinhart, Eichel and O'Reilly.

Pominville is fourth this year behind Skinner, Eichel and Reinhart.

You know why this doesn't make sense? It disregards and gains outside of the players you listed. If goal scorer 1-3 are doing better it doesn't matter. If everyone after #9 is doing better it doesn't matter. 

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yet our goals have increased year over year and over the last year of TM, both by the defense and by the forwards.

We have 181 goals ytd in 63 games.  2.87 goals per game. Goals by forwards 2.43

last season we scored 199 (2.43). Goals by forwards 2.20

the year before we scored 201 (2.45). Goals by forward 2.24

This makes sense if you are going to compare team scoring overall. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

You know why this doesn't make sense? It disregards and gains outside of the players you listed. If goal scorer 1-3 are doing better it doesn't matter. If everyone after #9 is doing better it doesn't matter. 

This makes sense if you are going to compare team scoring overall. 

Absolutely. But that's not what what we were doing.

This conversation started when I pointed out Botterill's attempts to improve his middle six have failed.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

45 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Absolutely. But that's not what what we were doing.

This conversation started when I pointed out Botterill's attempts to improve his middle six have failed.

Has it really failed? I have a really off the wall theory.

Is there any argument that we all looked forward to Jack reaching his potential but needed wingers to support him with some chemistry? JBott brings in Skinner and Jack "starts" the evolution. But is that enough or do you want to "push" him to be even better?

With a limited middle six, our top line knows if they don't bring it that a loss is more than likely. Hence the "push" to be better. Would that "push" still come if our middle six was better and Jack & Co. weren't relied on as much? Is Botts pushing the top line to play their best and then add the rest for a better future?

 

[woods-racer]

18 hours ago, dudacek said:

Here's my big issue with JBot so far: his total failure to fill out the forward ranks.

We don't need to debate his initial season: Pominville was OK. Griffith, Pouliot, Nolan and Josefson are all out of the league this year and shouldn't have been in it last year. Scott Wilson remains roster filler.

It was abundantly clear we needed a huge upgrade in our middle six. Botterill agreed and even took the drastic step of trading our 2nd best player to help make it happen. In came Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka, who we pencilled in for maybe 50 goals. In came Mittelstadt and Thompson, the former touted enough that we were reasonably crossing out fingers for another 30 between the two. With Skinner on board to replace Kane, those 80 goals should more than compensate for O'Reilly.

Thompson, Mittelstadt, Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka will be lucky if they combine for half their hoped-for totals. Right now they have combined for 31. ROR has 24 on his own.

Our middle six scorers this year so far compared to last:

Kane 20/Pominville 14

Pominville 16/Okposo 10

Okposo 15/Mittlestadt 9

Pouliot 13/Sheary 9

Girgensons 7/Rodrigues 8

Rodrigues 7/Thompson 7

Never mind dramatically improving our middle six scoring, it may actually be worse. Botterill has failed in this task two years in a row.

It's a results based business and he needs to start showing some better results.

 

He has tried to do this. Successfully with Skinner. Not successfully with Berglund/SOB and Thompson (to date with TT, he's young).

In JBott's defense he has taken in new blood to try and get this team going. Not always successful, but he has taken chances.

I think he's a nice mix of Darcy and Murray. Willing to take chances and move players, but not betting  all the future  picks on a couple of FA signings.

Edited February 28, 2019 by woods-racer

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, woods-racer said:

 

He has tried to do this. Successfully with Skinner. Not successfully with Berglund/SOB and Thompson (to date with TT, he's young).

In JBott's defense he has taken in new blood to try and get this team going. Not always successful, but he has taken chances.

I think he's a nice mix of Darcy and Murray. Willing to take chances and move players, but not betting  all the future  picks on a couple of FA signings.

Skinner was a successful pickup.  Had Wilson been healthy, he would probably count as a success on the 4th line as well.  Hard to hold injury against him.

Sheary's been a bit of 'meh' but we knew he needed to be with good/ very good players to be a guy worth writing home about & he has barely played with Eichel at all & hasn't really played much with Reinhart either post Reinhart getting over his annual slow start.

All 3 guys that came back have been disappointing, though Botterill & Housley likely had lower expectations for him than the fans hoped.  Pominville into November was better than could be expected; since, he's been disappointing though not unexpectedly.  And Pomms was always the filler to make the Scandella trade work from Minny's side.

Mittelstadt has been played above his ability level thus far, so has been a disappointment as well.

The big issue is 2C was intentionally downgraded & the proposed solutions to limp past it haven't been good enough.  (Which maybe was by design as well.  Hope not.)

 

[Jacque Richard]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think if you take away most teams top goal scorer it would drastically alter their team totals. But hey, you just want to complain about something so don't let facts and nuance stop you. 

Here we go, it’s the truth and facts jack.

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Jacque Richard said:

Here we go, it’s the truth and facts jack.

 

Take away Tampa's top goal scorer and they drop from 1st to 7th. Take away San Jose and they drop from 3rd to 11th. 

Take away Buffalo's and they drop from 22nd to 30th. 

Basically most teams if you cut their top goal scorer they drop about 6-8 places in the goals scored standing. 

 

Now the ROR trade, yes that looks like garbage but it has never looked good so that is definitely a good critique of Botterill. 

Edited February 28, 2019 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 hours ago, dudacek said:

Here's my big issue with JBot so far: his total failure to fill out the forward ranks.

We don't need to debate his initial season: Pominville was OK. Griffith, Pouliot, Nolan and Josefson are all out of the league this year and shouldn't have been in it last year. Scott Wilson remains roster filler.

It was abundantly clear we needed a huge upgrade in our middle six. Botterill agreed and even took the drastic step of trading our 2nd best player to help make it happen. In came Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka, who we pencilled in for maybe 50 goals. In came Mittelstadt and Thompson, the former touted enough that we were reasonably crossing out fingers for another 30 between the two. With Skinner on board to replace Kane, those 80 goals should more than compensate for O'Reilly.

Thompson, Mittelstadt, Sheary, Berglund and Sobotka will be lucky if they combine for half their hoped-for totals. Right now they have combined for 31. ROR has 24 on his own.

Our middle six scorers this year so far compared to last:

Kane 20/Pominville 14

Pominville 16/Okposo 10

Okposo 15/Mittlestadt 9

Pouliot 13/Sheary 9

Girgensons 7/Rodrigues 8

Rodrigues 7/Thompson 7

Never mind dramatically improving our middle six scoring, it may actually be worse. Botterill has failed in this task two years in a row.

It's a results based business and he needs to start showing some better results.

Although I am going to somewhat agree with your general conclusion that Jbot has yet to completely fix the middle six, I am going to disagree with your comparison to last year.  I think the comparison should be to the last year of TM’s reign of terror and sadly it looks like much of the problem stems from the transition for old guard players to kids or younger vets, as well as the Moulsonesque downfall of Kyle Okposo. I also thing you need to compare players on line assignments.  For example the top line 2 years ago was really Kane Eichel Reinhart and the second line was Moulson ROR KO.   Scarry.  The 3rd line was Foligno Larsson Gionta.  

Two years ago before the concussion KO was scoring goals at a .29 g/gp.  Today it’s down to .17g/gp this season.  That type of fall off isn’t Jbot’s fault.  It’s injuries and the fact that TM gave him the long-term contract.  KO has this gone from a 2nd line contributor to 3rd line dead weight.  

So while production is down some, so is age and cost.  Vets like Foligno, Gionta, ROR and Moulson have been replaced by Erod, Sheary, Mitts and Thompson.  Larsson is now on the 4th line.  

If Jbot adds a Miller or Hayes to anchor the 2nd line and Tage, Mitts and maybe Olofsson continue to develop, I think you’ll be please with the middle 6 and the restructuring done by Jbot.  He is my bold prediction for the day.  Mitts get’s hot down the stretch and finishes with at least 30 points.

Edited February 28, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN