How Long Does JBot Get?

[bob_sauve28]

I like what JBot has done so far. He seems to have added depth to the team at most positions, gotten picks that will further increase depth and talent and put us on the long term path to success, IMO. Building a foundation takes time, and the serious talent in the organization is very young. This is going to take time, but it will be worth the wait 

[PerreaultForever]

4 years seems to be the popular view. I'd suggest that if things don't start to show real positive steps forward year 3 (likely with coach 2) you have to look at him more seriously.

The point about being "entertaining" was good. This team is just hard to watch most nights. Goes back to that question of identity, what are they? I think what I want most right now is something you can focus on and say at least we do that - whatever it is - well.

I think back to when Nolan FIRST came and we were an awful team. Almost a dead team. Rebuilt around that lunchbucket work hard tough image. Very entertaining for a while and we built an identity that Ruff was later able to take to the final (with a great goalie's help). Just give me something to be entertained by. Something. Anything. 

Sometimes I just wonder though as to how so many of our players underachieve, I mean Drew Stafford's in the Jersey lineup and they're 4-1.:)

 

[Weave]

52 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

4 years seems to be the popular view. I'd suggest that if things don't start to show real positive steps forward year 3 (likely with coach 2) you have to look at him more seriously.

The point about being "entertaining" was good. This team is just hard to watch most nights. Goes back to that question of identity, what are they? I think what I want most right now is something you can focus on and say at least we do that - whatever it is - well.

I think back to when Nolan FIRST came and we were an awful team. Almost a dead team. Rebuilt around that lunchbucket work hard tough image. Very entertaining for a while and we built an identity that Ruff was later able to take to the final (with a great goalie's help). Just give me something to be entertained by. Something. Anything. 

Sometimes I just wonder though as to how so many of our players underachieve, I mean Drew Stafford's in the Jersey lineup and they're 4-1.:)

 

Therein lies the biggest issue I had with how we got to where we are.  The expectation of entertaining at a very minimum was lost.

And now the team is struggling to get back to at least that minimum level on a consistent basis.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I think you've said in the past that Regier got fired because he did too good a job of losing. I never really bought that. I think there was a power struggle about the "extent of the rebuild" (to use Darcy's phrase from a GR interview in the spring of 13), and I think that struggle cost Darcy, then Pat, their jobs. I can almost envision Darcy quitting, then getting a golden parachute of sorts for his years of service.

This sounds right.

That's correct.  Always felt that they wanted to be the worst, but more like the Murray or Botterill worst - just bad enough to clinch by 3-4 points; not clinch by more than a dozen points.  Regier gave us a team that literally could barely get out of it's own end, much less get enough scoring chances to even compete in more than a third of their games.  And he'd told us he would do that with the suffering comment.

Like I'd said in the post you quoted, not sure if the tank was Regier's brainfart or not; but as with all other mandates handed to him from higher up, he fully embraced it once it was clear that was the desired outcome.  And that was one he COULDN'T fully embrace without costing ownership money, but he did anyway.  And once it was obvious he was too good at it, he was gone.  The building would literally have been empty by March if he wasn't punted.

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, Hoss said:

I honestly feel very good about Botterill and his capabilities. Seems like a guy who works hard and has a pulse on where the team needs to go. We’ll see if he can get them there.

I want to be as patient as reasonably possible with him. I give him at least NEXT season and as long as they’re not a bottom feeder I give him another. If the team finished bottom five each of the next two seasons then things change.

Including this one, I assume?

[Hoss]

Just now, Thorny said:

Including this one, I assume?

Yes

[7+6=13]

He should and likely will get a chance to spend the free agency money available in the next two years.  He'll then have a decision to make on whether Housley is the coach to lead the team he built.  We'll have a clear picture of what we are 2 years from now as it should be the finished product of what we'll be at the NHL level.  That coupled with what the pipeline looks like will dictate if he gets an extension.  

[bob_sauve28]

Will be very interesting to see how he handles the Jeff Skinner situation. Are they trying to sign him now? I can't believe he will be allowed to just walk away and we are left holding nothing. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

4 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Will be very interesting to see how he handles the Jeff Skinner situation. Are they trying to sign him now? I can't believe he will be allowed to just walk away and we are left holding nothing. 

I don't think the trade would have been made without a clear understanding of the $ and term needed to sign Skinner.  With the intent to sign him long-term.

[7+6=13]

47 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Will be very interesting to see how he handles the Jeff Skinner situation. Are they trying to sign him now? I can't believe he will be allowed to just walk away and we are left holding nothing. 

They will try to sign him at any point and as N S mentioned they know what the contract generally looks like to get that done.  Skinner however holds all the cards and likely wants to play long enough with the team to make sure he wants to spend the remainder of his prime in Buffalo.  

If at the end of that Skinner shows no interest,  he'll be traded for something as similar to what we paid as possible to a playoff team.

[bob_sauve28]

26 minutes ago, 7+6=13 said:

They will try to sign him at any point and as N S mentioned they know what the contract generally looks like to get that done.  Skinner however holds all the cards and likely wants to play long enough with the team to make sure he wants to spend the remainder of his prime in Buffalo.  

If at the end of that Skinner shows no interest,  he'll be traded for something as similar to what we paid as possible to a playoff team.

 

26 minutes ago, 7+6=13 said:

They will try to sign him at any point and as N S mentioned they know what the contract generally looks like to get that done.  Skinner however holds all the cards and likely wants to play long enough with the team to make sure he wants to spend the remainder of his prime in Buffalo.  

If at the end of that Skinner shows no interest,  he'll be traded for something as similar to what we paid as possible to a playoff team.

Oops, copied that twice. I agree with both you guys that they probably thought they could get something done. I'll disagree about re-trade value, I bet we will get more than we traded for him if it's a deadline deal, he is a difference maker any playoff team would love to add. Which is puzzling Carolina traded him when they did, but they are doing well right now. 

[matter2003]

At least 2 more years

[coastal]

The reality is that to properly build an entire organization from where we were...   5 years.

GMTM was scout level in terms of skill sets and left the Sabres and Amerks in awful shape.   Jack, Risto, Dahlin, Reinhart (if he’s still here), Mittlestadt (if he develops) and whoever we get in the 2019 draft will either be entering the prime of their careers or into the last year of their rookie deals.  

2017 - 2018 flush the bowl

2018-2019 flush the bowl part deux 

2019-2020 might be a playoff year, but likely not.

2020-2021 better be a playoff year.  

2021-2022 better be another playoff year and perhaps series win or two.

2022-2023 is realistically when a Cup run window might open...   if Botts and team push the right buttons along the way.

Any slip beginning in the 2020-2021 year from this plan, Botts risks getting run.

 

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by coastal

[LTS]

If Skinner keeps whining about who he plays with then I would hope they pump his value and move him.  There's no room for that on a team.  His performance will speak for itself and I do like that he seems interested in congratulating teammates.  Never know how much is for show.. not that familiar with his day in day out attitude in Carolina.

He holds the cards and if he wants too much then he's going to be another asset for next year's draft... another 1st round pick and a prospect might get them a solid roster player.

[...]

Another 9 game series like these last 9 and you can postpone this thread for a while.

[Norcal]

JBot is right on schedule imo. The Amerks will contend for the Calder this year. The Sabres will be cup contenders as early as next year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Since the daggers are out I thought I'd resurrect this thread and give people the opportunity to vent.

Right now I'm still on board with Jbot and his plan, but count me as disappointed that he waited til the deadline to get any type of reinforcements.  

This team is miles away from being good right now.  PH shoulders some of the blame at a minimum, and there will be people calling for his head and soon.  However the trade for Montour implies that Jbot is still onboard with PH and his up tempo system. 

This team needs to be better in our zone both from forwards and D.  This team also needs better center play, more scoring wingers and some D who can actually play D.  As I put in the cap thread we have 23 players with Skinner signed and Scandella traded for about 70 mill.  This won't be the final roster for next year, but the pressure on PH and JBot is mounting after this crash and burn.

That said the team is better offensively and defensively then last year, just look at the raw stats.  The organization is better with the Amerks taking another step forward, but this time with more legit prospects on the team.  Jbot seems to have drafted well.  These facts buy him time.  Skinner was a great get.  Sheary has played to his contract.  I like the Montour trade.  

So how does he fix the mess that remains the Sabres?  Counting on maturing players will only go so far.  Is Risto traded for O help?  Can we move Scandella and Bogo and get something worthwhile in return?  Could UFAs be willing to come here after the collapse?  Jbot is going to have a long hard  off-season 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Since the daggers are out I thought I'd resurrect this thread and give people the opportunity to vent.

Right now I'm still on board with Jbot and his plan, but count me as disappointed that he waited til the deadline to get any type of reinforcements.  

This team is miles away from being good right now.  PH shoulders some of the blame at a minimum, and there will be people calling for his head and soon.  However the trade for Montour implies that Jbot is still onboard with PH and his up tempo system. 

This team needs to be better in our zone both from forwards and D.  This team also needs better center play, more scoring wingers and some D who can actually play D.  As I put in the cap thread we have 23 players with Skinner signed and Scandella traded for about 70 mill.  This won't be the final roster for next year, but the pressure on PH and JBot is mounting after this crash and burn.

That said the team is better offensively and defensively then last year, just look at the raw stats.  The organization is better with the Amerks taking another step forward, but this time with more legit prospects on the team.  Jbot seems to have drafted well.  These facts buy him time.  Skinner was a great get.  Sheary has played to his contract.  I like the Montour trade.  

So how does he fix the mess that remains the Sabres?  Counting on maturing players will only go so far.  Is Risto traded for O help?  Can we move Scandella and Bogo and get something worthwhile in return?  Could UFAs be willing to come here after the collapse?  Jbot is going to have a long hard  off-season 

He should be on board....the articles I read when Phil was hired said that's the style Botts wanted.

[PerreaultForever]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So how does he fix the mess that remains the Sabres?  Counting on maturing players will only go so far.  Is Risto traded for O help?  Can we move Scandella and Bogo and get something worthwhile in return?  Could UFAs be willing to come here after the collapse?  Jbot is going to have a long hard  off-season 

He has to spend the money he's saved and sign 2-3 FAs as well as Skinner (and if not Skinner a replacement(?)). If he does not, we will stagnate or fall back. There are numerous possibilities but he HAS to add to the roster and not just wait for prospects and development.  

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

I think Botts needs to add two 20+goal scorers (1 a center).  In '06-'07 we had a 40g guy and (3) 30+ guys and (2) 20+g scorers. With a mobile D we can hopefully score more than we give up and it would also help take pressure off the Eichel line.

[Jacque Richard]

He needs more grit.

[...]

I'm going to combine some content I put in other threads here, because I think it summarizes what JBot needs to do and why.  

The mission: 

1. Determine a style/system of hockey that has a better chance of success in the playoffs than other styles/systems (there must be data to ascertain this, no?).
2. Find a coach who ostensibly will be excellent with that style/system.
3. Create a roster that can successfully play that style/system.  

I think items 1&2 are done.  Therefore, Phil isn't going anywhere until 3 is completed.

On item 3, here are the players he has yet to upgrade:

Risto, Bogo, Scandella, Girgensons, Sobotka, KO, Pommenstein, Hunwick, Tage, and Sheary

I also suspect that Nelson, O'Regan and Wilson will need to be upgraded as well.

So, JBot likely has through all of next season to do what he can about the above players.  Some, obviously, will be easy to get rid of.  Replacing them with ideal players is another story.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Jacque Richard said:

He needs more grit.

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by Pimlach

[Carmel Corn]

2 hours ago, ... said:

I'm going to combine some content I put in other threads here, because I think it summarizes what JBot needs to do and why.  

The mission: 

1. Determine a style/system of hockey that has a better chance of success in the playoffs than other styles/systems (there must be data to ascertain this, no?).
2. Find a coach who ostensibly will be excellent with that style/system.
3. Create a roster that can successfully play that style/system.  

I think items 1&2 are done.  Therefore, Phil isn't going anywhere until 3 is completed.

On item 3, here are the players he has yet to upgrade:

Risto, Bogo, Scandella, Girgensons, Sobotka, KO, Pommenstein, Hunwick, Tage, and Sheary

I also suspect that Nelson, O'Regan and Wilson will need to be upgraded as well.

So, JBot likely has through all of next season to do what he can about the above players.  Some, obviously, will be easy to get rid of.  Replacing them with ideal players is another story.

I feel like GMJB wants to create a Buffalo version of the Pittsburgh Penguins, which suggests to me that HCPH is his choice for #2 above.  The question is how long will #3 take and will sustained and consistent winning overcome some of the issues the fan base has (ex. not enough grit).

I think he has one more full season to show that his plan is actually walking-the-walk.

[Pimlach]

I think any GM needs 4 years, especially when you start at a rock bottom tear down like TM and JB have. 

One can raise the debate of System vs. Great Players.  Get enough great and really good players and you adapt the system to them.  Seems a lot harder to insist on one system and then go try to find the players and then have the opportunity to actually acquire them.