Ullmark vs Hutton

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I dunno. To be honest, that foray into navigating corsica.hockey along with other sites (corsica makes you refresh and re-apply your filters if you leave the page for more than a couple seconds) has broken me for the night so you'll have to do it yourself ? 

Haha I don't blame you. I'm just gonna convince myself that Nashville is the same and this is all perfectly sustainable 

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Haha I don't blame you. I'm just gonna convince myself that Nashville is the same and this is all perfectly sustainable 

The good news is our "unsustainable hockey" has been propping up an "unsustainable win streak." No 10 game streak is sustainable otherwise it wouldn't be this special. 

We were playing sustainably good hockey before this recent stretch of games which lends me to the belief that we'll find it again and be a solid hockey team all year, boosted by banking 20+ of 20+ points in the middle of the season.

And that's how most good teams do their work. Rare is the team that night in and night out takes the opposition to task and snuffs out any attempt towards their net. 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

How does our “high danger chances for” look compared to last year?

Eye test says it’s much better and that the attacking style of hockey we’ve seen this year has added more offence while better goaltending has countered any hits that has made to the defence.

Which of course is the core Housley philosophy: force more mistakes than you make; you are much better off investing your time and energy attacking than defending.

On a related note, I think we are very fortunate as fans that the game is increasingly going to this direction; the majority of the best teams are playing this style and the result is more aesthetically pleasing hockey.

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How does our “high danger chances for” look compared to last year?

Eye test says it’s much better and that the attacking style of hockey we’ve seen this year has added more offence while better goaltending has countered any hits that has made to the defence.

Which of course is the core Housley philosophy: force more mistakes than you make; you are much better off investing your time and energy attacking than defending.

On a related note, I think we are very fortunate as fans that the game is increasingly going to this direction; the majority of the best teams are playing this style and the result is more aesthetically pleasing hockey.

The raw number is only up like .5 chances per game.

League ranking up to 25 from 31. We're still a low-event offensive team compared to the rest of the league. 

Of course, that stat isn't a be-all-end-all for describing offensive hockey. And so the numbers I used above shouldn't be taken as gospel, but the gap is big enough to be worth looking at. 

The finishing has certainly been better, and we look more competent/dangerous in the offensive zone by a pretty big margin, a lot of which goes directly to Jeff Skinner IMO. 

[nfreeman]

Good stuff here boys.  

[Mig_22]

11 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Carter is my team MVP right now. 

Carter Hutton is second in ES high-danger-save-percentage of all goalies with at least 15 starts, at .873. I recall Lehner being 30th or so, even in the season where his overall SP was .920. Ullmark is at .853. Both are top 15 in all situations. Their overall save percentage is .920 (532/578 shots faced for Hutton) and .926 (213/230 for Ullmark). 

 

I'm happy enough with Hutton and your stat about high danger save % is important.  One thing is that his medium danger save % is really sub-par at below 90%.  This doesn't invalidate your point at all because saving the tough ones has more benefit sometimes than just a save but the overall body of work by a goalie is important and Hutton is pretty much mid-pack.  Now that is a big improvement over 2017-8 Lehner but he is not carrying the team.  Damn, goalies are hard to quantify.  

[Randall Flagg]

38 minutes ago, Mig_22 said:

 I'm happy enough with Hutton and your stat about high danger save % is important.  One thing is that his medium danger save % is really sub-par at below 90%.  This doesn't invalidate your point at all because saving the tough ones has more benefit sometimes than just a save but the overall body of work by a goalie is important and Hutton is pretty much mid-pack.  Now that is a big improvement over 2017-8 Lehner but he is not carrying the team.  Damn, goalies are hard to quantify.  

I saw that stat column. I really don't know anything about goaltending or their stats. What is the difference between high, medium, low danger? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I saw that stat column. I really don't know anything about goaltending or their stats. What is the difference between high, medium, low danger? 

High danger is crease area

Medium is the face off circles

Low is the point shots.

[Mig_22]

19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I saw that stat column. I really don't know anything about goaltending or their stats. What is the difference between high, medium, low danger? 

The low-medium-high danger scale used by Perry at Corsica is based on Expected Goals for an unblocked shot (Fenwick).    That metric takes into account location, rush/no-rush,  rebound attempt or not, and one or two other things.  So in 2016 when he created the category, the percentages were as follows:

Shooting percentages are up league wide since then so the actual percentages probably are different now but Hutton's somewhat poor save percentage on medium danger shots is important since that will be about 40% of the shots faced.

 

I still love the guy but he is playing solid-to-well, not spectacular.   (last 7 starts he has been gaudy good).  It's certainly been enough for the Sabres.

[darksabre]

Got it figured out yet Phil?

[Wyldnwoody44]

Jesus H guys, I am about as hyper as they come, and while it can be frustrating at times for my brain, it doesn't affect my job performance. Nor am I abusing drugs (though I should be) 

 

Tinfoil hats for you, and for you, everyone gets a tinfoil hat 

[darksabre]

U okay?

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Jesus H guys, I am about as hyper as they come, and while it can be frustrating at times for my brain, it doesn't affect my job performance. Nor am I abusing drugs (though I should be) 

 

Tinfoil hats for you, and for you, everyone gets a tinfoil hat 

[MODO Hockey]

The obvious is so obvious that even a fiveyear olds buttcheek could figure this out. 

But hey, Phil can't. Thats is really something

 

[darksabre]

Ullmark should get Carolina tomorrow. We need to try to get a streak going here and we need to play the hot goalie.

I'd give him Saturday against Detroit too, then let Hutton have Winnipeg on Sunday. Then Ullie gets the Isles and Rangers next week.

[Eleven]

I know it was a 5-4 game; how was Ullmark's performance last night?

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, Eleven said:

I know it was a 5-4 game; how was Ullmark's performance last night?

He was fine. He looks a lot more in control than Hutton has lately. Which we need given how poor the Sabres are at cleaning things up in their own end.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, MODO Hockey said:

The obvious is so obvious that even a fiveyear olds buttcheek could figure this out. 

Definitely the first time I've heard this phrase ?

[Drunkard]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

Definitely the first time I've heard this phrase ?

I hear it's the new Bye Felicia down at the seminary school.

[dudacek]

It's not hard. Hutton has not been good for some time now.

[LGR4GM]

Hutton's sv% last 5 games: 0.822sv% average

Rk	Date	Tm		Opp		DEC	GA	SA	SV	SV%	SO	PIM	TOI
1	2019-02-01	BUF		CHI	L	L	4	22	18	.818	0	0	40:00
2	2019-01-29	BUF	@	CBJ	W	W	4	37	33	.892	0	0	59:42
3	2019-01-14	BUF	@	EDM	L	L	5	12	7	.583	0	0	24:49
4	2019-01-11	BUF	@	CAR	L	L	4	30	26	.867	0	0	57:52
5	2019-01-08	BUF		NJD	W	W	1	21	20	.952	0	0	6

 

Linus Ullmark: 0.865sv% average

Rk	Date	Tm		Opp		DEC	GA	SA	SV	SV%	SO	PIM	TOI
1	2019-02-05	BUF		MIN	W	W	4	45	41	.911	0	0	65:00
2	2019-02-01	BUF		CHI	L		2	7	5	.714	0	0	19:22
3	2019-01-30	BUF	@	DAL	L	L	1	27	26	.963	0	0	58:58
4	2019-01-18	BUF	@	VAN	L	L	4	23	19	.826	0	0	58:31
5	2019-01-16	BUF	@	CGY	W	W	3	33	30	.909	0

Edited February 6, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, darksabre said:

Ullmark should get Carolina tomorrow. We need to try to get a streak going here and we need to play the hot goalie.

I'd giveIhim Saturday against Detroit too, then let Hutton have Winnipeg on Sunday. Then Ullie gets the Isles and Rangers next week.

Agree for the most part, but would give Hutton Detroit on a VERY short leash & give Ullmark Winnipeg.  Sabres need to get to at least a 4 game W streak (& ideally 6+).  Don't see them getting there with Hutton playing the Jets.

[darksabre]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Agree for the most part, but would give Hutton Detroit on a VERY short leash & give Ullmark Winnipeg.  Sabres need to get to at least a 4 game W streak (& ideally 6+).  Don't see them getting there with Hutton playing the Jets.

We need in-conference points though.

[Stoner]

Ullmark's a UFA after next season. Should this be a concern?

[Sabel79]

12 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Ullmark's a UFA after next season. Should this be a concern?

He's an RFA after this season, so I doubt it.  

Edited February 6, 2019 by Sabel79