GDT LV Golden Knights vs Sabres at KB Center 3pm on MSG & NHL Network and WGR550am

[Randall Flagg]

Just got done.

2-1-0 looks soooo good! 

So did the team, I thought. Not sure why Phil switched Beaulieu and Dahlin. Might have been rewarding Beaulieu for the good couple of games he's had. But hopefully he sticks with what has been working on Thursday. I'd also just not touch the lines. Skinner is the only thing keeping the 21+10 combo afloat at even strength, as their games have turned stationary. Other fast skaters probably could too, but the line is getting chances with Jeff there - leave it alone. Jeff is doing his thing and will score sooner or later. I love how he lingers near and behind the net. And his edgework is niiiiiiiiiice. I know Phil is probably tempted to switch him with Sheary, but as this board predicted, Sheary has fit Jack & Sam like a glove so far, and I think you have to keep riding that.

Yes, shot attempts looked bad, again helped by a "let's get out of this game with a win" mentality as the third went on - but through two periods, zero people would say that Vegas controlled the game by any stretch. It was pretty even, Sabres with more zone time but fewer clean shots. Vegas, the best transition team in the league, got virtually all of their chances on the rush, and thus not too much sustained zone time, and I only saw 3-4 truly dangerous chances for them all game. I saw more for us. The Sabres are still stuck in the mire of figuring out how to open up the offensive zone, but they can at least keep the puck there longer than they've been able to in a long time. Their transition out of the d-zone is getting better and quicker every single game. It's slowly coming along. 

Please keep this going, Hutton, you're our glue right now. 

Risto-Scandella chemistry is showing. 

Erod and Jason are our best fourth line since we were last in the playoffs.

Let's go Buffalo! 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Jsixspd]

What a great game and great win!    And ABOVE .500 - first time in YEARS!!!!   

Just have to work on reducing shots on goal against -  37 this game, 44 the previous game.  That's putting a lot on the goalie!   

[Andrew Amerk]

53 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Well it's most likely Sobotka stays in the pressbox, a victim of if it's working don't change it.  But that isn't a lock considering the usage Sobotka got Thursday.

Especially considering how many games Pominville was on the top line last year, it is doubtful he sits.  But I'd rather have Sobotka's FO ability & PK work than Pominville in the lineup.

I agree with having Sobotka over Pommers, although I think HCPH probably thinks differently. Doubt Sobotka is in the press box. 

My guess...Elie is out when Sobotka comes back. New face, tough break. 

[PerreaultForever]

We should all feel pretty good about this, especially since Vegas is a fast team and last year fast teams destroyed us.

Hutton is like the anti-Lehner. Stable, calm, reliable, team oriented guy talking to rookies and directing traffic, playing the puck.  What a joy it is to have stable reliable goaltending. Have to wait and see what kind of a load he can take though. Ullmark should play soon I would think. 

Jack has a wicked shot and we should try to set up his one timer more often. It's a rocket. PP looks so much better this year.

Sheary is a good fit. Like that line. Finally a guy who can keep up with Eichel. I can see how he fit with Crosby and JBot was smart to pick him up. A really decent complimentary player who jumps on the puck well. 

Still waiting on Skinner to show me something, anything yet. Maybe he'll start to play if we keep winning and the attitude is positive. Dunno. Just question him period.

As for Sobotka, I think it depends on who we play, but we could use a solid checking line as the third line so I still think Mittlestadt would develop better if we sent him down to Rochester for a while. 

It's good though right? It's just good. 

[Doohicksie]

Just finished watching the game on NHL.tv.  That was a lot of fun.  I have to say, though, that Scandella's goal was a lucky fluke.  After the last how ever many years, we deserve some puck luck.

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, WildCard said:

2 goals for Vegas, 4 for Buffalo

fify  ?

[Hoss]

This is the first time in a while where I keep checking the calendar to make sure I’ll be able to watch.

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

I like this team.

The vets brought in this off season are so much better than the vets brought in last season.  I also like that McCabe is now a "vet." 

And as much as it pains me to say it, Beaulieu looks pretty good.  At one point he took a poor path to the puck, got beat by one of the Knights to it, went at him to take it away while another Knight joined the battle, and in the end he stole it away from both of them.  It wasn't a skill play so much as bulldog determination, and I really like that in a defenseman.

The whole team is playing with desperation from the get-go.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Doohickie

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

The vets brought in this off season are so much better than the vets brought in last season.  I also like that McCabe is now "vet." 

And as much as it pains me to say it, Beaulieu looks pretty good.  At one point he took a poor path to the puck, got beat by one of the Knights to it, went at him to take it away while another Knight joined the battle, and in the end he stole it away from both of them.  It wasn't a skill play so much as bulldog determination, and I really like that in a defenseman.

The whole team is playing with desperation from the get-go.

He'll forever be walking the tightrope, but he's played as well as we could have hoped through 3 games so far. 

I take Nelson out first if Bogosian ever comes back.

 

[Randall Flagg]

Now, with the assumption that 53-10-21's chances start going in, having three lines going well can let us be patient with Mitts and Tage, which I think is what is necessary right now. They're not far off and would benefit most from consistent minutes and linemates. I wish we had one more decent LW right now to stick with them for that. 

[nfreeman]

Serious question:  when was the last regular-season game that left that much optimism?

My game notes:

- They beat a very good team and took it to them most of the game until it was time to cover up and get out with a win.

- The improvement at goalie over last year is like night and day.  Hutton is playing extremely well AND, it would seem, exerts a strong, calming, positive veteran influence.  (Although Lehner had 35 saves in a shutout win today vs SJ -- good for him.)

- Compared with last year, their passing is so much more precise and integrated into a team system that quickly exits the D zone and creates offense from multiple spots.

- They have won their last 2 without much from the celebrated rookies -- Thompson and Mittlestadt aren't scoring or getting big minutes, and Dahlin has been good but definitely not the tip of the spear.  It's the vets, both holdovers and FNGs, who are leading the way.

- A big factor IMHO is that McCabe, Nelson and even Beaulieu are all improved over last year.

- ERod is playing very well and earning his ice time -- 5th among forwards today, with over 17 min.  I wouldn't mind seeing him with Mittlestadt.

Colorado is up next.  That's a winnable game.

[WildCard]

They beat a good team yeah but I'm really not that optimistic yet. IMO, we're still getting handly outplayed 

[Andrew Amerk]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

They beat a good team yeah but I'm really not that optimistic yet. IMO, we're still getting handly outplayed 

The scoreboard the last two games says otherwise. 

What makes you think Buffalo was outplayed today?

[Huckleberry]

1 hour ago, Jsixspd said:

What a great game and great win!    And ABOVE .500 - first time in YEARS!!!!   

Just have to work on reducing shots on goal against -  37 this game, 44 the previous game.  That's putting a lot on the goalie!   

 

24 minutes ago, WildCard said:

They beat a good team yeah but I'm really not that optimistic yet. IMO, we're still getting handly outplayed 

We had the better chances from what I saw the first two periods.   

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Andrew Amerk said:

The scoreboard the last two games says otherwise. 

What makes you think Buffalo was outplayed today?

They're giving up 36 shots against per game, while only generating 26.   You can't win consistently with those numbers.

[Randall Flagg]

Since I guess we're going all in on this....

Natural stat trick, which I don't believe does any sort of score-adjusting, has us at 48% Corsi through two games. Not sustainable. Corsica, however, I'm 99% sure does adjusting, and has us at 53% through our two games. Certainly a sustainable-for-winning number. 

Of course, 2,3, 10 games are garbage sample sizes still. Talk to me after 20+. 

@TrueBlueGED do you know if Corsica does score-adjusting automatically?

Edit: that NST number is through 3 games, but Corsica doesn't have today yet. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

An example of why these sample sizes are bad - 4 teams so far, with 2 and 3 games played, are below 40% corsi (5 are below 40% of shots taken, including Dallas, who have been dominant in their two games). And 5 are above 60% corsi, including the Knights, who we outplayed handily until the third-with-the-lead, which score effects doesn't count (and if you already don't think we outplayed them today, read through the thread around the 2nd intermission here and especially on hfboards, which is far more negative towards the Sabres than this place is). The Knights are also that high because Phily was up on them 5-1 early in the first game and coasted for 2 periods. 

Nobody will finish near 60% or below 46% in either of these stats, most likely, and yet there are teams taking 30% of the shots through 3 games, that will finish in the top of the league when all is said and done. 

The Coyotes are over 60%, in 4th, and haven't scored a goal yet through two games. Do we wish we were them, playing "sustainable hockey?"

Y'all need Jesus 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[WildCard]

I'll try and do a deeper dive Wednesday or tomorrow but I do think it's pretty funny that Flagg is the telling us we need Jesus when he was the voice of pessimism all offseason ? 

[WildCard]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

An example of why these sample sizes are bad - 4 teams so far, with 2 and 3 games played, are below 40% corsi (5 are below 40% of shots taken, including Dallas, who have been dominant in their two games). And 5 are above 60% corsi, including the Knights, who we outplayed handily until the third-with-the-lead, which score effects doesn't count (and if you already don't think we outplayed them today, read through the thread around the 2nd intermission here and especially on hfboards, which is far more negative towards the Sabres than this place is). The Knights are also that high because Phily was up on them 5-1 early in the first game and coasted for 2 periods. 

Nobody will finish near 60% or below 46% in either of these stats, most likely, and yet there are teams taking 30% of the shots through 3 games, that will finish in the top of the league when all is said and done. 

The Coyotes are over 60%, in 4th, and haven't scored a goal yet through two games. Do we wish we were them, playing "sustainable hockey?"

Y'all need Jesus 

The Coyotes are the Coyotes and based off that roster you know they will regress. What about us makes you think we won't consistently be in these situations? The same logic that tells you the Coyotes will regress tells you we might marginally increase

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

I'll try and do a deeper dive Wednesday or tomorrow but I do think it's pretty funny that Flagg is the telling us we need Jesus when he was the voice of pessimism all offseason ? 

Selective memory, I was quite optimistic in the single post that comprised 50% of my offseason words. I was critical of moves I didn't like and praised moves I liked, as always

And I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic today, I'm just waiting to get a better read on this team and not letting my emotions swing wildly as periods go by 

[WildCard]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

Selective memory, I was quite optimistic in the single post that comprised 50% of my offseason words. I was critical of moves I didn't like and praised moves I liked, as always

And I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic today, I'm just waiting to get a better read on this team and not letting my emotions swing wildly as periods go by 

If it's selective memory it's only because I remember a few posters poking fun at you for it

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, WildCard said:

The Coyotes are the Coyotes and based off that roster you know they will regress. What about us makes you think we won't consistently be in these situations? The same logic that tells you the Coyotes will regress tells you we might marginally increase

That it hasn't happened yet. 

A stat that is predictive by nature and has a well-defined range of maximum/useful-functionality, well, I'm going to wait for that range before drawing conclusions. 

And also the fact that score-adjusting the same stat, like you should anyway, gives us GOOD numbers in the meaningless sample size. 

And leaving the stat book and going to the hockey, I'm enjoying the good goaltending we've gotten through three games and observing that secondary depth-scoring that I anticipate being there (kids, Skinner) hasn't begun yet, and that since there are so many new and young pieces, our season is not going to be static, our play will develop as it goes on. So from this lens, fretting about shots through three games is something I'm going to poop on

Just now, WildCard said:

If it's selective memory it's only because I remember a few posters poking fun at you for it

I KNOW IT WAS DRIVING ME NUTS BC THOSE SAME ONES TRASHED THE ROOM AND STORMED OUT AFTER ONE PERIOD AGAINST BOSTON

[Huckleberry]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Now, with the assumption that 53-10-21's chances start going in, having three lines going well can let us be patient with Mitts and Tage, which I think is what is necessary right now. They're not far off and would benefit most from consistent minutes and linemates. I wish we had one more decent LW right now to stick with them for that. 

Nylander will get a call in a month or so ?

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

That it hasn't happened yet. 

A stat that is predictive by nature and has a well-defined range of maximum/useful-functionality, well, I'm going to wait for that range before drawing conclusions. 

And also the fact that score-adjusting the same stat, like you should anyway, gives us GOOD numbers in the meaningless sample size.

Wait for it all ya want, nobody's drawing conclusions other than saying it's not great. 

Corsica does score adjusted at 53% for us at ES and 53% when not adjusted, so I'm not exactly sure how accurate that is. Plus the website doesn't really define their widgets

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, WildCard said:

Wait for it all ya want, nobody's drawing conclusions other than saying it's not great. 

Corsica does score adjusted at 53% for us at ES and 53% when not adjusted, so I'm not exactly sure how accurate that is. Plus the website doesn't really define their widgets

"drawing conclusions" or making it a theme of GDTs this early on, whatever you call it, it's there so I'm gonna comment on it.