Sabres Lost Point Countdown 2018-19: 7

[Randall Flagg]

Sorry MattPie.

[MattPie]

12 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Sorry MattPie.

????

[Doohicksie]

Go ahead and lock the thread now, cuz we're never losing again!  ?

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, MattPie said:

????

I made some poster identity errors in another thread, and then found you. I thought you had switched your name to Samson's Flow but that was Touched by Boyes.

[MattPie]

Got around to updating. The Sabres have been under 94-point pace for the last three games, and given the gap between #8 and #9 (Buffalo) and the fall off for the rest of the east, I'd bet on 94 points not being enough this year. It's not dire in itself, win the next game to get back near 94-pace, and then maintain a playoff pace (12 points per 10 games) for the rest of the season and it's possible. The play before The Streak and after The Streak gives me little confidence that the team can do that. If they lose 3-4 of the next 5, and it becomes pretty difficult to climb back.

Edited January 21, 2019 by MattPie

[MattPie]

Big news, changing the math to 97 points. In recent years, 97 is safe, 94 certainly isn't. Here's the full sheet using 97 as the baseline up to the 5-2 win over the Caps.

GP	W	L	OTL	P	PPG	SPP	PL	PPG94	RPPG97	S2PPG97
0	0	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	0	1.183	#DIV/0!	0.0
1	0	1	0	0	0.000	0.0	2	1.198	1.000	1.4
2	1	1	0	2	1.000	82.0	2	1.188	0.158	0.4
3	2	1	0	4	1.333	109.3	2	1.177	-0.133	-0.6
4	2	2	0	4	1.000	82.0	4	1.192	0.161	0.9
5	3	2	0	6	1.200	98.4	4	1.182	-0.015	-0.1
6	3	3	0	6	1.000	82.0	6	1.197	0.165	1.3
7	3	4	0	6	0.857	70.3	8	1.213	0.294	2.8
8	4	4	0	8	1.000	82.0	8	1.203	0.169	1.8
9	5	4	0	10	1.111	91.1	8	1.192	0.068	0.8
10	6	4	0	12	1.200	98.4	8	1.181	-0.016	-0.2
11	6	4	1	13	1.182	96.9	9	1.183	0.001	0.0
12	6	4	2	14	1.167	95.7	10	1.186	0.016	0.2
13	6	5	2	14	1.077	88.3	12	1.203	0.105	1.7
14	7	5	2	16	1.143	93.7	12	1.191	0.041	0.7
15	7	6	2	16	1.067	87.5	14	1.209	0.118	2.1
16	8	6	2	18	1.125	92.3	14	1.197	0.060	1.1
17	9	6	2	20	1.176	96.5	14	1.185	0.007	0.1
18	10	6	2	22	1.222	100.2	14	1.172	-0.043	-0.9
19	11	6	2	24	1.263	103.6	14	1.159	-0.090	-1.9
20	12	6	2	26	1.300	106.6	14	1.145	-0.135	-2.9
21	13	6	2	28	1.333	109.3	14	1.131	-0.179	-3.9
22	14	6	2	30	1.364	111.8	14	1.117	-0.221	-4.9
23	15	6	2	32	1.391	114.1	14	1.102	-0.263	-5.9
24	16	6	2	34	1.417	116.2	14	1.086	-0.304	-6.9
25	17	6	2	36	1.440	118.1	14	1.070	-0.346	-7.9
26	17	6	3	37	1.423	116.7	15	1.071	-0.328	-7.6
27	17	7	3	37	1.370	112.4	17	1.091	-0.256	-6.2
28	17	8	3	37	1.321	108.4	19	1.111	-0.189	-4.7
29	17	8	4	38	1.310	107.4	20	1.113	-0.177	-4.5
30	17	9	4	38	1.267	103.9	22	1.135	-0.116	-3.1
31	18	9	4	40	1.290	105.8	22	1.118	-0.154	-4.1
32	19	9	4	42	1.313	107.6	22	1.100	-0.193	-5.1
33	19	9	5	43	1.303	106.8	23	1.102	-0.182	-4.9
34	20	9	5	45	1.324	108.5	23	1.083	-0.222	-5.9
35	20	10	5	45	1.286	105.4	25	1.106	-0.162	-4.4
36	20	10	5	45	1.250	102.5	27	1.130	-0.106	-3.0
37	21	11	5	47	1.270	104.2	27	1.111	-0.143	-4.0
38	22	11	5	49	1.289	105.7	27	1.091	-0.182	-5.0
39	22	12	5	49	1.256	103.0	29	1.116	-0.126	-3.5
40	22	13	5	49	1.225	100.5	31	1.143	-0.072	-2.1
41	22	13	6	50	1.220	100.0	32	1.146	-0.064	-1.8
42	22	14	6	50	1.190	97.6	34	1.175	-0.013	-0.4
43	23	14	6	52	1.209	99.2	34	1.154	-0.048	-1.4
44	23	15	6	52	1.182	96.9	36	1.184	0.002	0.1
45	23	16	6	52	1.156	94.8	38	1.216	0.050	1.5
46	23	17	6	52	1.130	92.7	40	1.250	0.096	3.0
47	23	18	6	52	1.106	90.7	42	1.286	0.139	4.4
48	24	18	6	54	1.125	92.3	42	1.265	0.110	3.4
49	25	18	6	56	1.143	93.7	42	1.242	0.080	2.4
50	25	19	6	56	1.120	91.8	44	1.281	0.126	3.9
51	25	20	6	56	1.098	90.0	46	1.323	0.170	5.3
52	26	20	6	58	1.115	91.5	46	1.300	0.142	4.3
53	26	20	7	59	1.113	91.3	47	1.310	0.150	4.5
54	27	20	7	61	1.130	92.6	47	1.286	0.121	3.5
55	27	21	7	61	1.109	90.9	49	1.333	0.168	5.0
56	28	21	7	63	1.125	92.3	49	1.308	0.140	4.0
57	28	22	7	63	1.105	90.6	51	1.360	0.187	5.4
58	28	23	7	63	1.086	89.1	53	1.417	0.233	6.9
59	28	24	7	63	1.068	87.6	55	1.478	0.278	8.3
60	28	24	8	64	1.067	87.5	56	1.500	0.289	8.5
61	29	24	8	66	1.082	88.7	56	1.476	0.267	7.5

[MattPie]

The Sabres now need another 10-game streak to get back to 97-point pace, then need to win 5 of the remaining 8 games to maintain.

15-2-1.

Who knows, maybe this is the first year in a few that someone sneaks in at 93 points. That's a cushy 13-4-1 from here.

[Kruppstahl]

16 minutes ago, MattPie said:

The Sabres now need another 10-game streak to get back to 97-point pace, then need to win 5 of the remaining 8 games to maintain.

15-2-1.

Who knows, maybe this is the first year in a few that someone sneaks in at 93 points. That's a cushy 13-4-1 from here.

We've won about 35% of our game since the new calendar year.

I think that pace will remain until the end of the season.

Get something like 2 out of a possible 6 points for every 3 games we play.

19 games left; we'll probably win 6 or 7 more games all year.