What Should Our 1st PP Look Like?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Who should be on the 1st PP look like and will the initial group remain together for the season?

My initial group is Eichel, Reinhart, Risto, Dahlin, and Mittelstadt

Edited October 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Stads]

Methinks the thread title could use a little work

Edited October 3, 2018 by Stads

[WildCard]

Is 'Isn't PP' code for ES or PK?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Fixed

[Randall Flagg]

Eichel, Reinhart, Risto, Dahlin. 

Let Mitts and Skinner fight for the last spot. Tage keeps the puck away from the other guys too much, usually for ill-advised shots. Unless he changes that when he isn't the oldest player on the ice. KO still folds under pressure, so while his shot is useful on the second unit, I don't want him out there messing with the flow of the first unit, which almost always seems to happen. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I like Skinner on the 2nd PP because Jack mans the Left wall on the 1st PP. 

[...]

If I remember correctly, it's pretty clear, but an enviable stream, and a lengthy pour.

[WildCard]

I don't think we're doing a traditional 2 d man pp. 

[dudacek]

Okposo and Ristolainen led the team in PP points over the past two years. 

This board too easily overlooks that in the search for shiny new toys.

I plug Dahlin into ROR’s spot and leave the rest alone. It’s one of the few things that works on this team.

Unit 2 should feature Casey moving the puck from the sidewall, Tage as the triggerman, Berglund at net-front and Skinner lurking. Not sure who the point man should be. Pominville or Scandella until Pilut comes up, maybe?

Edited October 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Okposo and Ristolainen led the team in PP points over the past two years. 

This board too easily overlooks that in the search for shiny new toys.

I plug Dahlin into ROR’s spot and leave the rest alone. It’s one of the few things that works on this team.

Unit 2 should feature Casey moving the puck from the sidewall, Tage as the triggerman, Berglund at net-front and Skinner lurking. Not sure who the point man should be. Pominville or Scandella until Pilut comes up, maybe?

I'd argue this board looks too easily at point totals and doesn't actually watch what happens out there. Matt Moulson was the leading goal scorer on the best PP in the league in 16-17, and he shouldn't have been anywhere near the team or the first unit. Kyle was seventh on the team in power play goals last year, and find a clip where his pass was the key part of the assist, the generator of the play, and not giving Risto or ROR the puck to create the actual main scoring play, versus what you could put together for the other guys.

The power play was what it was because of ROR and Jack, with Risto effectively moving the puck from one to the other, and Sam out front. 

Kyle got a lot of assists because of that, and could occasionally bury a nice wrister, but he was not a cog, and we don't have ROR on that side anymore to help. It must have been noticed by everyone now, what happens when Kyle is over there and has to do something quick when the defending forward pressures him. His success rate in that situation is far lower than desirable WITH Ryan's ability to bail him out on occasion. It actively disrupts things and I don't see the sole plus, his decent shot, being worth it. 

It's a no from me

 

[Huckleberry]

Eichel - Reinhart  - Skinner - Okposo - Ristolainen

Dhalin - Berglund - Mittelstadt - Svobotka - Scandella

[darksabre]

Usually a little yellow, but a glass of water or two tends to clear things up.

[Iron Crotch]

...slows down a little once you get on the wrong side of 40.

[Randall Flagg]

So phrasing it a different way, Okposo worked on a PP unit we removed one of three key pieces from, and by worked, I mean was not an integral part of and didn't screw things up too much relative to what could happen, and his shortcomings make me want to keep him from a PP that is now going to be fundamentally different, while we figure out what makes that one click, since we decided to go in a different direction and remove one of the fundamental parts of it.

And I want to keep him from it because it needs to funnel at least through Eichel, and likely with Dahlin. And since teams know that and will lean towards Eich's side, that will open space on the other side, which means the puck will actually end up there a lot, and I think OK is at his weakest when he's got the puck and a fast, tough decision to make, and precise execution of the proper decision. Which is what we need over there. ROR being on the right, how many times do you remember him wheeling out of a tough spot and executing tough passes through legs and off the boards to use the Risto-pivot and bring things back to Jack? It's all I picture when I picture him on the PP. Without that on the right side, I think that would be a dead zone. 

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'd argue this board looks too easily at point totals and doesn't actually watch what happens out there. Matt Moulson was the leading goal scorer on the best PP in the league in 16-17, and he shouldn't have been anywhere near the team or the first unit. Kyle was seventh on the team in power play goals last year, and find a clip where his pass was the key part of the assist, the generator of the play, and not giving Risto or ROR the puck to create the actual main scoring play, versus what you could put together for the other guys.

The power play was what it was because of ROR and Jack, with Risto effectively moving the puck from one to the other, and Sam out front. 

Kyle got a lot of assists because of that, and could occasionally bury a nice wrister, but he was not a cog, and we don't have ROR on that side anymore to help. It must have been noticed by everyone now, what happens when Kyle is over there and has to do something quick when the defending forward pressures him. His success rate in that situation is far lower than desirable WITH Ryan's ability to bail him out on occasion. It actively disrupts things and I don't see the sole plus, his decent shot, being worth it. 

It's a no from me

 

I know Okposo has some quirks in his game that drive you nuts. And we all know he was off last year.

But you make him sound like an anchor that is riding coattails, when he has consistently been one of the best power play producers in the NHL, no matter who he has played with.

He is 22nd in the entire NHL in PP points over the past three years. More than Eichel. More than Tavares. He is the ninth highest scoring PP winger in the league over that span. He has nearly twice as many PP points as his highest scoring potential replacement (Skinner). From a chemistry perspective, he provides a big body who can work the boards.

He’s more than a replaceable part. Production matters, and he produces.

Edited October 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I know Okposo has some quirks in his game that drive you nuts. And we all know he was off last year.

But you make him sound like an anchor that is riding coattails, when he has consistently been one of the best power play producers in the NHL, no matter who he has played with.

He is 22nd in the entire NHL in PP points over the past three years. More than Eichel. More than Tavares. He is the ninth highest scoring PP winger in the league over that span. He has nearly twice as many PP points as his highest scoring potential replacement (Skinner). From a chemistry perspective, he provides a big body who can work the boards.

He’s more than a replaceable part. Production matters, and he produces.

 

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

So phrasing it a different way, Okposo worked on a PP unit we removed one of three key pieces from, and by worked, I mean was not an integral part of and didn't screw things up too much relative to what could happen, and his shortcomings make me want to keep him from a PP that is now going to be fundamentally different, while we figure out what makes that one click, since we decided to go in a different direction and remove one of the fundamental parts of it.

And I want to keep him from it because it needs to funnel at least through Eichel, and likely with Dahlin. And since teams know that and will lean towards Eich's side, that will open space on the other side, which means the puck will actually end up there a lot, and I think OK is at his weakest when he's got the puck and a fast, tough decision to make, and precise execution of the proper decision. Which is what we need over there. ROR being on the right, how many times do you remember him wheeling out of a tough spot and executing tough passes through legs and off the boards to use the Risto-pivot and bring things back to Jack? It's all I picture when I picture him on the PP. Without that on the right side, I think that would be a dead zone. 

 

Production came because of what happens when he moves the puck along, which he just plain doesn't do well enough.

Okposo is an anchor by any conceivable hockey definition. From the most basic and hated +/- hockey stat, to what he does to the production, shot shares, heat maps, and literally everything else that measures  anything with any accuracy. They fall apart for players he plays with and rebound when he's gone. It just happens. His secondary PP assists, which I haven't seen a counter that show regularly generate anything, rather than just passing to a guy who passes to the guys who do, are unconvincing, as was his 7th place finish among Sabres in PPG last year. That's not strong enough of a case for me to have any interest in keeping a set of stone hands (and a great person) out there on PP1. 

There's nothing in the past that can change my mind on this, we'll need to see it actually change this coming month.

[Randall Flagg]

Extending the stat base to seasons before his massive head and neck thing which very well could have started the end of his career doesn't do much either.

He's a different player now, and if he can rebound to what he was before, the beginning of tangible proof of it happening hasn't appeared yet and so I can't and won't assume it will. 

[Randall Flagg]

UPDATE: I counted the wrong column, he wasn't 7th on the team in power play goals. 

I retract none of the substance of my argument though. 

[dudacek]

So, the entirety of your position is based on last season, or, more specifically, the first three months of last season?

A season where he did rebound to be the 53rd most productive PP player in the NHL?

Chicken and egg I suppose, but A case could be made that Okposo’s poor production on the PP was a major reason it stalled early last year and his improvement a major reason why it rebounded.

Edited October 3, 2018 by dudacek

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

Production came because of what happens when he moves the puck along, which he just plain doesn't do well enough.
.

What’s your definition of well enough? Better than Berglund, or Thompson or Skinner?

And to get back to the meat of your argument against Okposo, I expect/hope Dahlin to competently play ROR’s role, meaning no one else has to make massive adjustments.

Moving Skinner onto PP1, which I think is more likely for Phil, will require some readjustment.

Edited October 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So, the entirety of your position is based on last season, or, more specifically, the first three months of last season?

A season where he did rebound to be the 53rd most productive PP player in the NHL?

Yes. The season after he almost died is the one I'm going to go on, because in my view th ehockey player he was in March is a lot more likely to be what he resembles from here on out than the one before all that stuff when he was still young and spry. When being the guy to give the puck to the generators of our power play got him a lot of assists and 6 power play goals in 76 games.

But you haven't addressed the actual focal point - in your view, what are the things Kyle did to get those points? Because in the hockey I watched, it was the times he successfully got the puck to the guy next to him, ROR  and Risto, where from there things happened with Jack or Sam (or Risto/ROR). His points came when he didn't screw up getting the puck to the most important pieces of the power play. The thing that I desperately want to make video of, and just don't have time, is that he's not actually good at this to the degree that you'd want on a power play, because of what has been typed out above, the combination of quick-twitch decision making and precise execution required when pressed on the power play and only one semi-good passing option. ROR was excellent at it when Jack-focus pushed the puck over to him and the defense responded. That's why I mentioned "picturing" him. Close your eyes and you see him doing the perfectly angled board pass after sucking in the forward just far enough to give Risto a second seam in case Jack is covered. If the play got to the boards, HE was the one that came out with the puck on his stick, ready to make a play. Kyle was lucky that this crazy mofo played on his side of the ice. if he was below Jack instead, things would have been a lot worse. He was really helped out with ROR there because he was often taken to the boards in sub-optimal conditions, teams know he doesn't have the quick-twitch hands anymore. And he lost a lot of pucks because of it anyway.

So now that ROR is gone, our PP isn't going to run the same. And we have guys I'd much rather see out there than the guy that wasn't a creator, a guy whose reputation will continue to supersede what he actually brings, just like how I outlined this summer that we need to focus on not doing if we ever want to be a decent team again

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What’s your definition of well enough? Better than Berglund, or Thompson or Skinner?

 

He's one of the worst at it on the team. His hands are bloody awful. It's why everything goes cold in the offensive zone in his ice time. The puck can't get to where it needs to go enough. 

[Randall Flagg]

Almost 700 of his 900+ ES minutes were with our two best offensive players last season, And yet their heat maps (and the shot/goal splits underlying them) were still markedly more active than his because in their time without him they generate a ludicrous amount of chances. Whereas most of his ice time is with them and it's the coldest and most desolate demonstration of high-percentage-shooting areas on the team, only excluding Nolan and Josefson, and Larsson. He does have them beat, and literally the only reason is because of Jack&ROR. His numbers away from those guys literally join the abominable depth. 

There's an underlying reason for the heady veteran with gritty shoulders having this happen. What do you propose it is? My proposition has been the thing I've noticed since his first game here, being amplified by external factors, that I've already annoyed everyone typing out so many times, and I have a hard time picturing the traces of these external factors just poofing away in the offseason bliss 

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

He's one of the worst at it on the team. His hands are bloody awful. It's why everything goes cold in the offensive zone in his ice time. The puck can't get to where it needs to go enough. 

Except when it does and he is collecting enough garbage assists to fool guys like me into thinking he can play.

I didn’t like Okposo’s game last season either, even though I do think it is hyperbole to suggest a guy with 44 points has the worst hands on a team with Johan Larsson Zemgus Girgensons and Jordan Nolan getting regular shifts.

I guess we will have to watch and both of us hope he can prove you wrong and get back to the player he was when we signed him.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Except when it does and he is collecting enough garbage assists to fool guys like me into thinking he can play.

I didn’t like Okposo’s game last season either, even though I do think it is hyperbole to suggest a guy with 44 points has the worst hands on a team with Johan Larsson Zemgus Girgensons and Jordan Nolan getting regular shifts.

I guess we will have to watch and both of us hope he can prove you wrong and get back to the player he was when we signed him.

Careful with the tense of my sentence there - Jordan Nolan isn't on this team. 

It should be obvious if he does, at least - tank-bad underlying metrics are by their nature very visible and if cleaned up, the on-ice disappearance of the things that drive them should be stark. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Greenish tint.