Who Will Have a Better Season - Bills or Sabres?

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Right, the timeline expectations that came with the tank and from its proponents has certainly flopped. On the other hand... 

This is a fallacy. Implicit (and in this case, explicit) to much of the criticism of the tank is an assumption that not tanking would have yielded considerably better results, to the tune of playoff success. Maybe. It's possible. But given what we know of Tim Murray's tenure, I don't think there's a good argument out there that he'd have built a competitive team. It's also entirely possible we'd have been at the bottom of the league the good ol fashioned way. When you draft the way the Sabres have for around a decade, misery tends to come regardless.  

Why are we assuming GMTM (who presumably was all in on the tank as a condition for getting the job) would've been the GM?

 

3 hours ago, Weave said:

That likelihood is not bore out by the list of 1st overall picks though, so while it sounds like it makes sense it hasn't been seen in actual results with any consistency.  Chicago and Pittsburgh both had extended Stanley Cup success on the backs of top picks, but after those two specific teams you can't really point to a top pick directly leading to extended success.

Hey freeman, how's this for not continuing to litigate the tank?

Funny -- I was about 2 posts above this one when the same thought occurred to me.

At this point, I'll just hope for the argument to morph into a debate over Taro's (incorrect) assertion that Dahlin is tankfruit -- which will only happen if the Sabres are good this year -- because if they stink again, even Hoss and WC will probably give up the ghost.

 

[Kruppstahl]

On August 11, 2018 at 10:32 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

So who is better this season.  Who makes the playoffs?  Is playoffs a realistic goal for either team?

This is a tough question and not easily answered.

The Bills are a league-leading regression candidate this year; their over/under is set around 6.5 games  I believe, and that seems about right.

Then you have the Sabres.  I think they will turn a corner this year, the corner they were expected to turn last year but did not.  But I don't see them as a genuine threat to make the playoffs.  So yet another season of non-playoff hockey will be frustrating and feel like a failed season, even if it is not.

It's hard to overstate just how badly the rebuild went with GMTM.  Long way to go.  The good news is that Dahlin may well end up a better player than Eichel, and I think he will have more of an immediate impact than Eichel did or could.

Once Dahlin settles in, an ice time devouring, puck moving D-man like that who can match up against anyone's top line and play half a freaking game night in and night out is hugely valuable.  More valuable than the 1C in my opinion.

I voted both teams will hover around .500 and I think that's about right.  

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by Kruppstahl

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Why are we assuming GMTM (who presumably was all in on the tank as a condition for getting the job) would've been the GM?

 

Funny -- I was about 2 posts above this one when the same thought occurred to me.

At this point, I'll just hope for the argument to morph into a debate over Taro's (incorrect) assertion that Dahlin is tankfruit -- which will only happen if the Sabres are good this year -- because if they stink again, even Hoss and WC will probably give up the ghost.

 

If they don't blow the f###### team up in '13, they don't end up 1st ever 31st place team.  You can only have the best odds to win  the friggin' lottery so many times before finally winning it.  (And don't forget, when the Sabres ended up w/ Stafford, they had the best odds to land Crosby.  (As did a couple others.)  That was one more they lost.)

[Sabres Fan in NS]

10 hours ago, Hoss said:

For those that think four cups wouldn’t be “success” for the Sabres tank is it purely because you believe nothing will ever cover for the moral questions you have of the tank? If so, do you no longer root for the Sabres?

So, we are back to this ####### BS.

Go to hell!!

I need a break.

[Hoss]

32 minutes ago, N S said:

So, we are back to this ####### BS.

Go to hell!!

I need a break.

It was an honest question.

[SwampD]

 

Nope. It's gotta be more than one Cup or the Tank was not a success.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, N S said:

So, we are back to this ####### BS.

Go to hell!!

I need a break.

OK friend -- time for a walk along that beautiful NS coastline.  This isn't something to get worked up about.

 

7 hours ago, Taro T said:

If they don't blow the f###### team up in '13, they don't end up 1st ever 31st place team.  You can only have the best odds to win  the friggin' lottery so many times before finally winning it.  (And don't forget, when the Sabres ended up w/ Stafford, they had the best odds to land Crosby.  (As did a couple others.)  That was one more they lost.) 

Certainly you are right as a matter of causation.  My point is simply that the pro-tankers were all selling the rest of us a rainbows and unicorns scenario that decidedly did NOT include the possibility of finishing DFL in Eichel's 3rd year.  So to "credit" the pro-tank position with Dahlin is a bridge too far IMHO.

[...]

I don't believe we're far enough away from the tank to be able to properly assess its effectiveness.  There are still too many moving parts and scenarios related to it.  That said, right now you can say that the tank brought us Eichel,  Dahlin and GMJB, along with whatever assortment of less major characters.  It also revealed that whatever attempts to change the culture prior to GMJB didn't work and probably informed GMJB on how to approach changing the culture effectively.  

Regardless of anything else, the Tank was and its legacy can not be removed from the present and the future.  I don't understand why people get worked up over the fact that it happened at this point - or at all, since "the people" really had no say in it whatsoever.  

[TrueBlueGED]

11 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Why are we assuming GMTM (who presumably was all in on the tank as a condition for getting the job) would've been the GM?

 

So say it was Jim Benning instead, who given his work in Vancouver, wasn't a tank mastermind. He destroyed that team whilst trying to compete. Again, teams end up at the bottom while trying to improve all the time. There's no reason to assume the Sabres wouldn't have been lumped in with them just because they didn't try to tank. 

Anyway, I would hope (though not necessarily expect) that if we win a Cup in the next 5-10 years, we'll all be too busy celebrating to give a flying F whether or not the tank was the reason. 

[LGR4GM]

Oh for the love of raptor jesus and all things prehistoric, not this again. 

If the tank was solely to get Eichel it was a success. This means the tank and rebuild are separate entities. 

If the tank was to get Eichel and then be a better team than the continual playoff bubble team they were, then literally any success with Eichel on the team is part of the tank. The tank and rebuild in this case are linked entities. So if 3 years from now Jack Eichel wins a cup, that is because we have Jack Eichel on the team and not Dylan Strome. 

Either the tank and rebuild are separate or the tank and rebuild are linked. You can't have it both ways when it suits whatever argument and individual is making. To put it another way, would you rather have Eichel, Reinhart, Nylander, Dahlin, and Mittelstadt or Strome, Keller, Perlini, Merkley, Chychrun and Pierre-Oliver Joseph? 

Edited August 14, 2018 by LGR4GM

[LTS]

The way I look at it.. the Buffalo Sabres engaged in a dramatic rebuild that was hampered by a few events:

1. 2010 - 2011 - A new owner - Pegula
2. 2012 - 2013 - A new coach - Rolston
3. 2013 - 2014 - A new GM & Coach - Murray & Nolan (LaFontaine and much more mess)
4. 2014 - 2015 - Change in lottery system odds - Edmonton wins McDavid from the 3rd spot
5. 2015 - 2016 - A new coach - Bylsma
6. 2015 - 2016 - Change in lottery odds and top 3 picks available - this hasn't hurt Buffalo yet
7. 2016 - 2017 - A new GM & Coach - Botterill and Housley

The Sabres had already drafted poorly leading into Pegula taking over.  The top picks leading to that point were:

• 2007 - 31st overall - TJ Brennan
• 2008 - 12th overall - Tyler Myers
• 2009 - 213th overall - Zach Kassian
• 2010 - 23rd overall - Mark Pysyk

When Pegula took over, he left Regier and Ruff in place.  They had been making the playoffs up to that point.  There's a lot to be said for what potential pitfalls were set upon the organization as the new owner took over.  Clearly it's not been good as they have not made the playoffs under a full year with Pegula as owner.  That said, he's a new owner who has shown his propensity to make mistakes and is also apparently learning from them.  The impact of those mistakes on the timeline should not be dismissed.

With Regier still making decisions they pick:

• 2011 - 16th overall - Joel Armia
• 2012 - 12th overall - Mikhail Grigorenko
• 2013 - 8th overall - Rasmus Ristolainen

The 2013-2014 season can and should be seen as a huge mess.  It's little doubt the Sabres were going to finish dead last given the front office insanity.  No need to rehash it but it brought the Sabres Nolan over Rolston and ultimately put Murray in a seat.  I'm not sure we can fully quantify what the impact of that season was on the Sabres, but i think it's safe to say that it makes their rebuild far different from other teams.

All of that aside, the Sabres lost the top pick to Florida, but it did net Reinhart which still appears to be a good thing at this point.

The decision to have Murray lead resulted in an attempt to rebuild faster.  In so doing, Murray created an atmosphere of little competition (unlike Botterill).  However, he was also dealing with limited talent with which to move.  The only way to get established players is to trade away futures, and he did.  Whether this was his decision or the decision of the owners who didn't accept a longer rebuilding process, we don't know.  Either way, it was the decision.  It was a path chosen and once that happened there's no going back.

The Sabres were further hampered when the odds for the top overall pick were altered leading into the McDavid draft.  If the Sabres win that draft are they better today?  Yes, I think that's the case and not because McDavid is incredible.  I think Murray built a team of Canadian system hockey players that was designed with the hope that you get McDavid.  Instead he had to draft Eichel, the prodigy of the USA Hockey system.  He brought in Bylsma, although not his first choice, and clearly he did not mesh with the players. Basically, creating a locker room problem.

Everything since that has been a change in direction, again, and that's just the way it goes.  But I don't think we've seen other teams have the same level of change that the Sabres have had in the front office where you can easily compare them and say that the rebuild failed.  It was more than just THE rebuild.  As I see it, the Sabres are on attempt #3 to rebuild a winning roster.  That's system number 3 in 7 years of not making the playoffs.  

From an overall standpoint.  Pegula has made poor decisions leading to his teams continued or prolonged status as non-contenders.  From that overall standpoint I would say the Sabres rebuild has failed.  But I don't think it is comparable to other teams, and certainly not a single player in the overall theater presentation of "As the Sabres Turn..."

You can play what-ifs, all day long, but what-ifs are not what happened.  Going back to page 64 and choosing option B doesn't mean that when you get to page 96 you don't also fall of a cliff and die like you did when you originally chose option A and went to page 87 and were run over by a bus and died.  If we all had the capabilities to live our lives in the middle of fragmented timelines we'd have evolved into multi-dimensional beings that had no need for hockey.

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by LTS
Grigorenko... not Girgensons.. although not much better.

[erickompositör72]

30 minutes ago, LTS said:

 

• 2012 - 12th overall - Mikhail Girgensons

He was always my favorite

 

?

[erickompositör72]

34 minutes ago, LTS said:

Everything since that has been a change in direction, again, and that's just the way it goes.  But I don't think we've seen other teams have the same level of change that the Sabres have had in the front office where you can easily compare them and say that the rebuild failed.  It was more than just THE rebuild.  As I see it, the Sabres are on attempt #3 to rebuild a winning roster.  That's system number 3 in 7 years of not making the playoffs.  

From an overall standpoint.  Pegula has made poor decisions leading to his teams continued or prolonged status as non-contenders.  From that overall standpoint I would say the Sabres rebuild has failed.  But I don't think it is comparable to other teams, and certainly not a single player in the overall theater presentation of "As the Sabres Turn..."

This makes a lot of sense.

I just think the decision to tank should not have been a condition in picking a GM (TM). I really do think the fanbase does have some influence on how a team operates. If the FO feels that a fanbase would tolerate tanking, they may feel they have carte blanche to do so.

We should have just picked a better GM. Whether that GM wanted to tank or not, doesn't matter. One who knew how to draft and enter into smarter contracts. We may not have had Eichel, but there were plenty of great players available in the drafts who didn't go top-10. I think that would have caused less "suffering," led to more exciting hockey (without need to "change the culture"), and frankly, could have been just as effective at producing a championship team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It’s funny, but all the changes may have caused the timeline on the rebuild to be extended, but it is leading to a core group of good players.  

Risto, Reinhart, Eichel, Mittelstadt and Dahlin.  The only real mistake was Nylander, but even this pick may still work out.

[LTS]

1 hour ago, erickompositör72 said:

He was always my favorite

 

?

Yeah.... whoops!

55 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

This makes a lot of sense.

I just think the decision to tank should not have been a condition in picking a GM (TM). I really do think the fanbase does have some influence on how a team operates. If the FO feels that a fanbase would tolerate tanking, they may feel they have carte blanche to do so.

We should have just picked a better GM. Whether that GM wanted to tank or not, doesn't matter. One who knew how to draft and enter into smarter contracts. We may not have had Eichel, but there were plenty of great players available in the drafts who didn't go top-10. I think that would have caused less "suffering," led to more exciting hockey (without need to "change the culture"), and frankly, could have been just as effective at producing a championship team.

We should have picked a better GM is probably true in hindsight... but if you consider the soap opera that occurred during that time period it's hard to think that it was possible to end up with anything but some kind of flawed result.

Who even hired the GM?  Was it really LaFontaine?  That period is so mucked up I have a hard time even applying logic to it.  ?

[...]

The Tank, as presented by Monty Python:

 

[Samson's Flow]

So back to the non-tank talk.

I think the Bills have a similar year as last year, albeit from an entirely different cast of characters and in a more exciting (more TDs, more turnovers) way, but still end up with 7 to 9 wins. Daboll makes the offense more watchable, but we don't get the benefit of a million turnovers to steal some early games.

Sabres make a big improvement from the DFL soul-crushing team we watched in years past, but that big improvement still only gets us to mid 80's point total. ES scoring is way better, but there still isn't enough talent in the top lines to make a difference. Much more watchable, but still not great enough to make the playoffs.

[pi2000]

How can anybody pick the Sabres?    The Bills went to the playoffs last season and improved their defense.   The Sabres finished last in the league and traded their best overall player.   It's a no brianer.  

[Drunkard]

16 hours ago, pi2000 said:

How can anybody pick the Sabres?    The Bills went to the playoffs last season and improved their defense.   The Sabres finished last in the league and traded their best overall player.   It's a no brianer.  

For me it's because the Bills traded the quarterback who got them to the playoffs and the fact that they needed an abnormally high turnover differential to even get there. Whatever QB replaces Taylor likely won't have his propensity to avoid turnovers.

The Sabres have already hit rock bottom so there's really no where to go but up. Plus they have a mother f'ing God on the roster in Casey Mittelstadt. No brainer.

[LGR4GM]

Tyrod didn't get the bills anything but 31st in passing offense. They didn't get to the playoffs because of Tyrod unless we really want to count him basically never throwing the ball as a positive. 

[...]

IMHO the Bills made the playoffs last year because of the coaching staff.  I think Brian Daboll is an upgrade and therefore expect the Bills to attempt another eeking into a playoff slot.

[pi2000]

5 hours ago, Alkoholist said:

For me it's because the Bills traded the quarterback who got them to the playoffs and the fact that they needed an abnormally high turnover differential to even get there. Whatever QB replaces Taylor likely won't have his propensity to avoid turnovers.

The Sabres have already hit rock bottom so there's really no where to go but up. Plus they have a mother f'ing God on the roster in Casey Mittelstadt. No brainer.

Sabres downgraded their center position, and have no starting goalie (proven anyway), and same head coach who failed to squeeze an ounce of effort out this sad bunch and let the locker issues fester.      I see more of the same this season.      Just because it's different doesn't mean it's better.

The Bills OTOH, are in year two of McDermott/Frazier and improved their personnel on defense.    Their D should be dominant.     I have no concerns with the offense since they can't really be any worse than they were last season under Tyrod/Dennison..... NO BRAINER.

[WildCard]

31 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Sabres downgraded their center position, and have no starting goalie (proven anyway), and same head coach who failed to squeeze an ounce of effort out this sad bunch and let the locker issues fester.      I see more of the same this season.      Just because it's different doesn't mean it's better.

The Bills OTOH, are in year two of McDermott/Frazier and improved their personnel on defense.    Their D should be dominant.     I have no concerns with the offense since they can't really be any worse than they were last season under Tyrod/Dennison..... NO BRAINER.

If I could give this post two thumbs down I would

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Sabres downgraded their center position, and have no starting goalie (proven anyway), and same head coach who failed to squeeze an ounce of effort out this sad bunch and let the locker issues fester.      I see more of the same this season.      Just because it's different doesn't mean it's better.

The Bills OTOH, are in year two of McDermott/Frazier and improved their personnel on defense.    Their D should be dominant.     I have no concerns with the offense since they can't really be any worse than they were last season under Tyrod/Dennison..... NO BRAINER.

Did the Sabres really down grade the center position? Many would argue not....Sobotka's FO% is among the top of the league the past few years  and Berglund has been decent. Combine the points from the two of them and they closely resemble O'Reilleys #'s. IMO neither one will take Ryan's #2C spot , so now add in possibly Middelstats offense and you've create more offense and spread it out amongst your depth. 

Was Lehner a proven starting goalie....really??? he was an unproven back-up when they brought him here and could not win a shootout if his life depended on it.

Just because things are different doesn't mean they are worse.

The Bills OTOH IMO still haven't MADE the playoffs or at least haven't EARNED it. Last year their season was over and they only got pushed into the playoffs on a lucky play. They finished no better than the year before when they didn't make it.

With all that said...I think the Bills will have the better season than the Sabres and EARN their way into the playoffs.

[SwampD]

The Bills earned it last year. I really wish that Ravens loss would have happened in week 5, then the story going in to week 17 would have only been win and they're in, which they did.

I think pi's take is probably spot on, although I don't think the Sabres outlook is as bleak as he does.