TRADE: Sabres acquire Jeff Skinner

[That Aud Smell]

41 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Better solid than liquid. 

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd give him 5 years at 6.5mil today. With Pominville coming off the cap next year, you basically just re-purpose that money to Skinner. 

He'll probably want more than that - in terms and money. But that's close.

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Skinner's sh% standard deviation is 2.3 and his confidence interval is 10.7=+/-1.595 

I love reading this stuff, nodding sagely, but having no effing clue what it means.

[WildCard]

Just now, That Aud Smell said:

Do fans actually run players out of town? Honest question.

In Montreal and Toronto they do

[Doohicksie]

40 minutes ago, ... said:

the narrative makes sense - except for details on why Skinner was pretty much done in Raleigh. 

He had a great rookie year but they gave him protected minutes.  Several Carolina coaches over the years refused to give him top line minutes because he's a defensive liability, so he never really developed beyond being a guy that needed to be protected.  So they weren't happy with his defense and he wasn't happy with his playing time.

My guess is that Housley will take his defensive shortcomings into account when designing the lines.  Skinner will likely end up on Jack's LW with a defensively responsible RW like Reino.  Jack's speed will help him cover defensively as well.  Or worst case he ends up on a line with Berglund to start and eventually Mitts, which will be a #1b line.  Either way he'll be getting top line minutes with a high-end center.

Carolina was in love with Skinner in the beginning but they soured on him when he couldn't be the complete player they wanted him to be.  I'm pretty sure JBot and HCPH are coming into this eyes wide open and they'll design his usage around the player he is.

Kotalik, Vanek and Afenigenov were great scoring wingers that were pretty bad on defense, yet the Sabres got to the conference finals with them (and the reason we didn't advance to the Cup finals was not on them).  I'm ready to take on a defensively challenged, highly talented trigger man.

[jsb]

I think it would be naive to believe they've not already had some discussions on what it would take to resign him. With that in mind, it wouldn't surprise me to see an extension done prior to the season beginning. I just don't see them making this deal and then flipping him at the deadline.

[Hoss]

Canes GM said Skinner had and used his full NMC and noted that Buffalo is a place he’s long been interested in.

[Doohicksie]

35 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I honestly don't know what to think of this trade. Glad we got a goal scorer for this year. Don't feel we gave up too much, but where does it go from here? I'm not into throwing the bank at this guy. I hope this isn't a situation where we are fighting for last playoff spot so we have to keep him and then he signs with another team and we get nothing...and miss playoffs anyway. And if we give him a seven year deal for seven million and he fizzles two years from now, that will really suck. He will want a long term deal, not sure I'd be willing to do that. 

I'm willing to put my faith in JBot to negotiate those waters.

[That Aud Smell]

8 minutes ago, WildCard said:

In Montreal and Toronto they do

I wonder if that take conflates causation with correlation.

Or something.

[North Buffalo]

5 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I wonder if that take conflates causation with correlation.

Or something.

What is the P value and std deviation on that?  LGR4GM???

Edited August 3, 2018 by North Buffalo

[Doohicksie]

At first I didn't like that Skinner didn't have term beyond this year, but I think JBot will use that to his advantage.

[WildCard]

People calling Skinner a rental are fcking morons

[CallawaySabres]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Which part did we waste? Cliff Pu? I would gladly trade Cliff freaking Pu for 1 year of Jeff Skinner. 

So if we do not make the playoffs this year, you are fine with giving Pu and a 2nd away for nothing?

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

52 minutes ago, ... said:

I wouldn't offer him anything until he proves that he belongs here long term.

And how long are you talking about to prove himself? He/s already proven HIMSELF, so now he has to prove Jack/Mitts are capable too? 

Skinner played with less capable centers and proved he can score....the way I see it Jack and/or Mitts need to prove they can make people around them better. 

If you sign him now to a 5yr deal (extension that won't kick in 'til next yr) then Skinner will be 32yrs old at the of contract.....if you wait for him to "prove" himself you may be buying more of  his declining years. This is depending on him wanting a long term deal. 

I can't believe I just stuck up for Skinner....I never cared much for him (didn't hate him though).

Edited August 3, 2018 by MakeSabresGrr8Again
added to post

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

 

Coming back to the money:  Can JBot make the money work?  He's got a lot of young players on ELCs a few highly paid stars, and a couple of albatross contracts.  He has firm commits of about $50M in salary cap for 2019-20.  There are two expiring UFA contracts:  Skinner and Pommer.  Pomminstein will not be renewed, so his salary can be used to give Skinner (and the RFAs) a salary bump.  Things get better after that season, so as long as he can make it work for 2019-20, I think JBot will be able to find the room to re-sign Skinner if he wants.

And Moulson's 3.975 comes off. 

Edited August 3, 2018 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

So if we do not make the playoffs this year, you are fine with giving Pu and a 2nd away for nothing?

Yeah

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

So if we do not make the playoffs this year, you are fine with giving Pu and a 2nd away for nothing?

You are assuming that if we don't make the playoffs the trade is a failure.  I don't see it as nearly as clear cut as that.  This team needs to have an expectation of winning placed on it NOW.  The excuses for losing are being stripped away one by one.  If Pu and a 25% chance at a roster player is what it takes to jump start the expectation of winning, that is a price I am willing to pay.  Pu was a 2nd tier prospect for us at best, and the 2nd round pick is a low odds asset.  Not at all a high price to pay for the expectation to win.

[Doohicksie]

44 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I understand concerns about defensive abilities (or lack thereof). You want all-around players... but at some point you need guys who produce.

I’ve seen fanbases fall in love with too many guys who play a good “all-around game” but don’t produce at a useful clip.

I woke up this morning and had forgotten about this trade for a moment. As soon as I remembered I was ecstatic all over again. I do want an extension done sooner rather than later.

FIrst bold:  Full agreement.

Second bold:  Me too!  ?

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

So if we do not make the playoffs this year, you are fine with giving Pu and a 2nd away for nothing?

 

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Yeah

Yes because it wasn't for nothing. It was for a year of Skinner. 

[bob_sauve28]

33 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Do fans actually run players out of town? Honest question.

Dave Andrechyuk was, I thought 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

You are assuming that if we don't make the playoffs the trade is a failure.  I don't see it as nearly as clear cut as that.  This team needs to have an expectation of winning placed on it NOW.  The excuses for losing are being stripped away one by one.  If Pu and a 25% chance at a roster player is what it takes to jump start the expectation of winning, that is a price I am willing to pay.  Pu was a 2nd tier prospect for us at best, and the 2nd round pick is a low odds asset.  Not at all a high price to pay for the expectation to win.

Exactly. I don't get all the hand wringing over trading a 2nd tier prospect and ???? 2nd for a 30goal scorer. It what world is Cliff Pu and a 2nd in 2019 not worth Jeff Skinner all day every day? 

[Weave]

10 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

.the way I see it Jack and/or Mitts need to prove they can make people around them better. 

Abso-freaking-lutley.  Jack needs to show that he can adjust too.  If he can't adjust, I'm not sure he deserves the elite label we've given him.

[bob_sauve28]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Exactly. I don't get all the hand wringing over trading a 2nd tier prospect and ???? 2nd for a 30goal scorer. It what world is Cliff Pu and a 2nd in 2019 not worth Jeff Skinner all day every day? 

I'm totally fine with what we gave up, I'm just worried about what we give up going forward. But if he performs and scores, it will be all good 

[LGR4GM]

For a defensive liability he sure had a lot of takeways last year, 93 compared to 62 giveaways. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

As an Atlantan, seeing Waddell on the other side of this deal just warms my heart.  It’s further proof that TM is the second worst GM in hockey.  Waddell destroyed the Thrashers and he’ll destory the Canes as well.  It makes me think in a sad way that the owner in NC wants to move the team but Bettman won’t let him. 

Although it feels like a TM trade, a bunch of futures for youngish vet, Jbot gave up our 7/8 best forward prospect and not elite draft picks. TM gave up 1st rd picks and already developing higher end prospects.  Although giving up Pu might be further evidence that Jbot hates CHL players and TM players.  

The Sabres are rapidly getting close to the cap.  Signing Reinhart for $5 mill, will leave the Sabres just 1.5 mill from the cap.  Once Nelson is added to the roster, that leaves us with under 700k in cap space.  With Nelson, Skinner and Reinhart we stand at 14 forwards, 8 D and 2 Goalies.  A couple of players will be moved (traded/waived) before the season starts.  Prime candidates - Girgensons, Larsson, Hunwick, and Baloo.  Thompson can be sent down, but I’d rather move on from Larsson or Girgensons at this point.  The Sabres are also at 48 of their 50 contracts once Reinhart signs. 

While I thought this trade almost precludes prospects from getting a chance up front, I realized that Thompson and Mittelstadt are prospects.  In addition, if O’Ragen, Bailey or Baptiste have a good camp, I can see Jbot moving on from both Girgensons and Larsson to save a few bucks and give these kids a shot, albeit on the 4th line.   

 

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

Just now, bob_sauve28 said:

I'm totally fine with what we gave up, I'm just worried about what we give up going forward. But if he performs and scores, it will be all good 

What did we give up going forward? 

[bob_sauve28]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As an Atlantan, seeing Waddell on the other side of this deal just warms my heart.  It’s further proof that TM is the second worst GM in hockey.  Waddell destroyed the Thrashers and he’ll destory the Canes as well.  It makes me think in a sad way that the owner in NC wants to move the team but Bettman won’t let him. 

Although it feels like a TM trade, a bunch of futures for youngish vet, Jbot gave up our 7/8 best forward prospect and not elite draft picks. TM gave up 1st rd picks and already developing higher end prospects.  Although giving up Pu might be further evidence that Jbot hates CHL players and TM players.  

The Sabres are rapidly getting close to the cap.  Signing Reinhart for $5 mill, will leave the Sabres just 1.5 mill from the cap. This makes me think that a couple of players will be moved (traded/waived) before the season starts.  Prime candidates - Girgensons, Larsson, Hunwick, and Baloo.  Thompson can be sent down, but I’d rather move on from Larsson or Girgensons at this point.  The Sabres are also at 48 of their 50 contracts once Reinhart signs. 

 

They just don't fit in anywhere now