Advanced Stats Explained

[LGR4GM]

Alright so now you put Okposo on the 3rd line with Mittelstadt and X on the left wing. That leaves 2 RW spots open if Reinhart is moving to center. 

[Randall Flagg]

Even if Kyle is really good to go, I probably want him helping Casey, because they looked good together last year. Eichel is so enigmatic, he might not necessarily work with your "best" wingers. We need to continue to find the wonky stylistic fit. Just from what I view that fit might be, Sheary is the best piece we have for him at the moment. I still dream of a Palat trade for the other side. But his NTC kicked in,a nd no way he waves it to come here. 

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Even if Kyle is really good to go, I probably want him helping Casey, because they looked good together last year. Eichel is so enigmatic, he might not necessarily work with your "best" wingers. We need to continue to find the wonky stylistic fit. Just from what I view that fit might be, Sheary is the best piece we have for him at the moment. I still dream of a Palat trade for the other side. But his NTC kicked in,a nd no way he waves it to come here. 

I still want Erod with Eichel and Sheary

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I still want Erod with Eichel and Sheary

I'm down to try it. "But ERod shouldn't be in the top six" can easily met by "look at our goddamn roster and find me more than 3 players that should be in a top 6."

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I still want Erod with Eichel and Sheary

I think Sheary - Eichel - Thompson might be a thing if I am reading the tea leaves right. 

[Samson's Flow]

27 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Anybody but ERod, that's for sure

Wow. Okposo didn't really help anyone last year. All of the red numbers to the right and all the of black numbers to the left is no beuno.

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Sheary - Eichel - Thompson might be a thing if I am reading the tea leaves right. 

I too think that was the intent of the trades to get those wingers. Especially hearing from Thompson himself that they have "big plans" for his role on the team.

[Taro T]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I think Sheary - Eichel - Thompson might be a thing if I am reading the tea leaves right. 

There is a very real chance that will be a thing in '19-'20.  Tougher to project Thompson on that line out of the gate this October.  Expecting they'll try it some in camp this September.

Which, when that happens (if it does) makes the 2nd scoring line Rodrigues - Mittelstadt - Reinhart & the checking line Berglund centering Okposo & Baptiste or Wilson.  Maybe Girgensons takes that LW sliding Wilson & Baptise down to Sobotka's line.

[Randall Flagg]

I don't see why you'd acquire Thompson without envisioning him as that fit next to Jack. He has a very unique set of skills of the type that you wouldn't necessarily want on any particular line, but could fit Jack's puzzle piece perfectly. I like that line idea a lot when Tage is ready, which might not be this season. 

Sheary can help Jack go get pucks and can stretch out the other team's NZ, Tage can find soft spots in the o-zone to bury feeds that we know Jack can get there. 

[WildCard]

Forgot Thompson existed honestly.

Jack is fast though, Tage isn't as fast as Erod

Jack shoots a lot, Tage shoots a lot

Doesn't exactly sound like a great combination to me. Unless Tage is just going to park it somewhere and have Eichel feed him all day. How many times did we say it last season though, or even since Jack came into the league: he is at his best when he shoots the most. 

13 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

Wow. Okposo didn't really help anyone last year. All of the red numbers to the right and all the of black numbers to the left is no beuno.

It's oddly impressive really. 

[LGR4GM]

Tage is fast in a straight line. His real issue is agility. Also Tage is pretty solid down low and along the wall. A couple more years and he could be an animal but that is only if he develops properly. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Tage is fast in a straight line. His real issue is agility. Also Tage is pretty solid down low and along the wall. A couple more years and he could be an animal but that is only if he develops properly. 

Well at least we won't have the old offsides contest that we used to between Kane and Eichel anymore

[LGR4GM]

Just now, WildCard said:

Well at least we won't have the old offsides contest that we used to between Kane and Eichel anymore

But that was my favorite part of the season. 

[LTS]

20 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Forgot Thompson existed honestly.

Jack is fast though, Tage isn't as fast as Erod

Jack shoots a lot, Tage shoots a lot

Doesn't exactly sound like a great combination to me. Unless Tage is just going to park it somewhere and have Eichel feed him all day. How many times did we say it last season though, or even since Jack came into the league: he is at his best when he shoots the most. 

It's oddly impressive really. 

I would envision a lot of what we saw last year when it comes to Eichel.  He'll be expected to carry the puck or receive the breakout pass out of the zone.  He'll carry it and he will either get a shot off or he will take the puck deep into the zone where he will look to feed his teammates who trail the play.

In this case Thompson who might actually put the puck in the net.

It's not about keeping up with Eichel.  It's about being able to be in position once Eichel has determined if he can or cannot beat the defense.  As much as Eichel likes to shoot, he's an incredible passer and having a player with a prognosticated "elite" shot is hopefully the answer.

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, LTS said:

I would envision a lot of what we saw last year when it comes to Eichel.  He'll be expected to carry the puck or receive the breakout pass out of tife zone.  He'll carry it and he will either get a shot off or he will take the puck deep into the zone where he will look to feed his teammates who trail the play.

In this case Thompson who might actually put the puck in the net.

It's not about keeping up with Eichel.  It's about being able to be in position once Eichel has determined if he can or cannot beat the defense.  As much as Eichel likes to shoot, he's an incredible passer and having a player with a prognosticated "elite" shot is hopefully the answer.

Very well stated.

IF they can find a finisher for Eichel, he could be that 90+ point player everybody hopes he becomes.  He easily could have had 10-20 more points each of the past 3 seasons if guys w/ open nets in front of him could actually handle the pass.

[WildCard]

25 minutes ago, LTS said:

I would envision a lot of what we saw last year when it comes to Eichel.  He'll be expected to carry the puck or receive the breakout pass out of the zone.  He'll carry it and he will either get a shot off or he will take the puck deep into the zone where he will look to feed his teammates who trail the play.

In this case Thompson who might actually put the puck in the net.

It's not about keeping up with Eichel.  It's about being able to be in position once Eichel has determined if he can or cannot beat the defense.  As much as Eichel likes to shoot, he's an incredible passer and having a player with a prognosticated "elite" shot is hopefully the answer.

Wasn't that the whole point of putting Okposo and Pominville on his line? To be finishers? Matt Moulson too, same thing. 

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Wasn't that the whole point of putting Okposo and Poininville on his line? To be finishers? Matt Moulson too, same thing. 

And Okposo hasn't been a finisher here.  Moulson hasn't been an NHL caliber playerin at least 2 years.  & Pominville surprised everyone for ~6 games & then looked every bit the salary dump we'd expected.

Might as well make Wilson his winger for how effective those 3 were.

[WildCard]

Just now, Taro T said:

And Okposo hasn't been a finisher here.  Moulson hasn't been an NHL caliber playerin at least 2 years.  & Pominville surprised everyone for ~6 games & then looked every bit the salary dump we'd expected.

Might as well make Wilson his winger for how effective those 3 were.

Right, that's my point. Granted they're a lot older than Tage, but they know how to finish better, and they didn't. Why? Because they are/were slow, and bad on the boards. 

[Samson's Flow]

3 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Right, that's my point. Granted they're a lot older than Tage, but they know how to finish better, and they didn't. Why? Because they are/were slow, and bad on the boards. 

I don't think Eichel's linemates need to keep up for him stride for stride, but they do need to be in the same zip code so he isn't playing 1on3 while he's waiting for support. Tage's reported straight line speed should allow him to be a few strides behind and ready for the trailer goals that come from all the attention on Jack.

At least in theory.

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Right, that's my point. Granted they're a lot oldeis than Tage, but they know how to finish better, and they didn't. Why? Because they are/were slow, and bad on the boards. 

This coming season, I don't see Eichel's finisher on the roster unless Reinhart gets the nod.

The season after, there are 2 options w/in the organization already: Thompson & Olofsson.  (Maybe even bust Nylander wakes up.  Wouldn't want any money on it.)  

Thompson isn't slow and has hands.  Bulk him up & hope he doesn't have Stafford disease (big guy who only played physical if a smaller teammate was getting roughed up).

Hoping someone surprises in camp.

[dudacek]

I am amazed at the number of candidates to be Jacks wingers. Sheary, Reinhart, Rodrigues, Thompson, Olofsson, Nylander, Baptiste and Bailey, in rough order of likelihood. Hell, Okposo could easily be called upon again, and who’s to say Berglund isn’t tapped to be the grinder and defensive conscience if Girgensons isn’t.

What is amazing, and frustrating, is that none of Rodrigues, Nylander, Baptiste or Bailey have ever gotten a look with Jack. Even in the last month of the season, which was useless for anything else. They can all skate.

Personally, I think finding some chemistry with Jack is Nylander’s best bet of carving an NHL career.

[Randall Flagg]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I am amazed at the number of candidates to be Jacks wingers. Sheary, Reinhart, Rodrigues, Thompson, Olofsson, Nylander, Baptiste and Bailey, in rough order of likelihood. Hell, Okposo could easily be called upon again, and who’s to say Berglund isn’t tapped to be the grinder and defensive conscience if Girgensons isn’t.

What is amazing, and frustrating, is that none of Rodrigues, Nylander, Baptiste or Bailey have ever gotten a look with Jack. Even in the last month of the season, which was useless for anything else. They can all skate.

Personally, I think finding some chemistry with Jack is Nylander’s best bet of carving an NHL career.

Psh, we had to see more of what the Jack-Pommers pairing could give us, duh.

[Drunkard]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I am amazed at the number of candidates to be Jacks wingers. Sheary, Reinhart, Rodrigues, Thompson, Olofsson, Nylander, Baptiste and Bailey, in rough order of likelihood. Hell, Okposo could easily be called upon again, and who’s to say Berglund isn’t tapped to be the grinder and defensive conscience if Girgensons isn’t.

What is amazing, and frustrating, is that none of Rodrigues, Nylander, Baptiste or Bailey have ever gotten a look with Jack. Even in the last month of the season, which was useless for anything else. They can all skate.

Personally, I think finding some chemistry with Jack is Nylander’s best bet of carving an NHL career.

I agree. Rodriguez in particular, should be given a chance in the top 6 because he's produced better than the alternatives at this point. I still see Reinhart as a winger and with O'Reilly gone I think the top 6 will consist of:

Eichel, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Sheary, Rodriguez, and somebody (I'll be hopeful and say Thompson).

There are all sorts of combinations that can be had, but I hope they use those guys in the top 6 and put Okposo on the 3rd line with Sobotka and Berglund. Go with youth on the 4th line and let the vets like Pominville, Larsson, etc. either ride the pine or send them down to Rochester.

[LTS]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

Wasn't that the whole point of putting Okposo and Pominville on his line? To be finishers? Matt Moulson too, same thing. 

I don't think any of them are considered to be an "elite" shot.  Okposo is a workhorse.  Pominville is past his prime and I'm not sure he was an elite shot ever, and Moulson scored around the net and on the PP.

 

[Thorner]

8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Okposo will continue to be one of the worst options for Jack's line, both statistically and in terms of what Jack needs and what Kyle needs versus what they give each other. 

And he was healthy all season last season.

So it's going to have to be Reinhart on Jack's right, right? I know they weren't ideal together last year, but they've shown chemistry before, and he's gotta be the best option from who we have available. 

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If Kyle isn't with Jack, where does he play? 3rd line with Casey? Does Reinhart shift to center again? 2nd line of Erod - Reinhart - Okposo?

Mittelstadt will probably be the 2C, so I'd guess beside him. I still doubt Reinhart moves back to C. I think it's something Botterill has in mind as a possibility, but if I had to guess I think he envisions Reinart developing his center aptitude to the point where he can fill in there if necessary, but his primary position still being at right wing. 

6 hours ago, WildCard said:

Forgot Thompson existed honestly.

Jack is fast though, Tage isn't as fast as Erod

Jack shoots a lot, Tage shoots a lot

Doesn't exactly sound like a great combination to me. Unless Tage is just going to park it somewhere and have Eichel feed him all day. How many times did we say it last season though, or even since Jack came into the league: he is at his best when he shoots the most. 

It's oddly impressive really. 

We've been down this road before I believe, and I'm all for Jack shooting more, but his primary instinct is still passing the puck. Ideally on his line we'd have one finisher, and one guy who can pass him the puck. I'm going to cling to the idea of Reinhart playing with him for now, because Sam can do both well. 

Could definitely see Thompson being a future winger for Jack though because of Thompson's finishing ability, as others have said. But I also see a fit with Mittelstadt, perhaps as much as with Eichel, or more so. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Quote

Here’s the issue: most hockey analysts have come to the conclusion that Quality of Competition doesn’t matter anywhere near as much as people think it does.

“It matters, on average, about three or four times less than quality of teammates does,” said Micah Blake McCurdy, “even after you take into account how you have five opponents at 5v5 but only four teammates.”

Why QoC or Quality of Competition doesn't matter as much https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/why-quality-of-competition-doesn-t-matter-to-analytics-experts-anymore-1.23414544?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter