UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year

[Derrico]

Matt Moulson is 34, Sam Reinhart is 22.  I don't have as much hesitation giving these young guys the long term deals as opposed to 27/28/29 year old UFA's.

[Taro T]

45 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

Why a 6 year deal? That only buys 2 UFA years. We should lock him up for 8 or go with the bridge deal. I don't see the upside is signing him to just 6 years.

Doubt they'll be willing to pay great enough for potential to make it worth it to Reinhart to sign an 8 year deal.  Though my preference is an 8 year deal, expect that a 6 year deal is more likely to find common ground.

[Drunkard]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Doubt they'll be willing to pay great enough for potential to make it worth it to Reinhart to sign an 8 year deal.  Though my preference is an 8 year deal, expect that a 6 year deal is more likely to find common ground.

If that's the case, I'd just bridge his ass then. I wouldn't do him any favors by setting him up to be a UFA in his prime.

[PerreaultForever]

On 7/18/2018 at 3:31 PM, Huckleberry said:

I'd still offer him the scheifele deal, 8x6.2 mill .

I'm sorry but this is crazy to me. Scheifele was a leader on that team and a playoff stud. In no way has Sam shown anything near that. Let me put it this way, would anyone here not embrace a one for one swap of those players (aside from lurking Jets fans)? They'd riot in Winnipeg if they did that.

Just don't see why so many people want to dump money and term at a guy who has not (yet) given us a full season, and although decent at times, at other times has looked downright dreadful. The fact that this deal is taking so long makes me think JBot might feel the same way. Barring a trade, a bridge deal is the only way to go imo. 

[JJFIVEOH]

Dale Tallon built a Cup winning team in Chicago. The problem was he didn't look long term and the cap hurt them eventually. He learned from his mistakes. Unlike most GM's, he'll sign extensions in the middle of the season with young players who would still be RFA's even if they signed a bridge deal. By doing so, the young player is happy with the long contract, but the cap hit wouldn't be as high as if they were given a bridge deal and turned out two great seasons that would warrant a much higher contract. 

With this strategy, the young player is happy with the term, the team is happy with the cap hit. Tallon has at least six core players that have extremely cap friendly contracts which wouldn't have been possible if they were given bridge deals and then ended up asking more in the long run. Huberdeau, Barkov, Trochek, Bjugstad, Matheson, Ekblad.......... I'm sure he'll give Dadonov an extension sometime in the middle of this year. 

If the Sabres really have some semblance of confidence in Reinhart, give him 7-8 years now and save on the cap hit in the long run. If you give him the bridge contract and he turns out to be a stud, you're screwed in the long run. 

[sweetlou]

2 hours ago, JJFIVEOH said:

Dale Tallon built a Cup winning team in Chicago. The problem was he didn't look long term and the cap hurt them eventually. He learned from his mistakes. Unlike most GM's, he'll sign extensions in the middle of the season with young players who would still be RFA's even if they signed a bridge deal. By doing so, the young player is happy with the long contract, but the cap hit wouldn't be as high as if they were given a bridge deal and turned out two great seasons that would warrant a much higher contract. 

With this strategy, the young player is happy with the term, the team is happy with the cap hit. Tallon has at least six core players that have extremely cap friendly contracts which wouldn't have been possible if they were given bridge deals and then ended up asking more in the long run. Huberdeau, Barkov, Trochek, Bjugstad, Matheson, Ekblad.......... I'm sure he'll give Dadonov an extension sometime in the middle of this year. 

If the Sabres really have some semblance of confidence in Reinhart, give him 7-8 years now and save on the cap hit in the long run. If you give him the bridge contract and he turns out to be a stud, you're screwed in the long run. 

I think everyone's concern is that with the addition of Mittelstadt, and maybe any other young players this year or next year, does Reinharts production stay the same or drop off.  

If the Sabres sign him long term at 6 million AAV and he only produces 45-50 pts, how would the fans react in 3-4 years? Would they be satisfied with that contract or upset at the overpayment?

[Huckleberry]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm sorry but this is crazy to me. Scheifele was a leader on that team and a playoff stud. In no way has Sam shown anything near that. Let me put it this way, would anyone here not embrace a one for one swap of those players (aside from lurking Jets fans)? They'd riot in Winnipeg if they did that.

Just don't see why so many people want to dump money and term at a guy who has not (yet) given us a full season, and although decent at times, at other times has looked downright dreadful. The fact that this deal is taking so long makes me think JBot might feel the same way. Barring a trade, a bridge deal is the only way to go imo. 

Yes he is a good player, but he wasn't the player when he signed that deal.   His ELC stats are comparable with Samson, so yes he can sign the same deal.

Or you can risk bridging him and him becoming the player Scheifele has become after his ELC years and risk having to sign him to 8x9 or something.

[Hoss]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm sorry but this is crazy to me. Scheifele was a leader on that team and a playoff stud. In no way has Sam shown anything near that. Let me put it this way, would anyone here not embrace a one for one swap of those players (aside from lurking Jets fans)? They'd riot in Winnipeg if they did that.

Just don't see why so many people want to dump money and term at a guy who has not (yet) given us a full season, and although decent at times, at other times has looked downright dreadful. The fact that this deal is taking so long makes me think JBot might feel the same way. Barring a trade, a bridge deal is the only way to go imo. 

Schiefele had one solid year under his belt when he signed the deal. 29-32-61.

He had one assist in four playoff games to that point.

[StuckinFL]

4 hours ago, sweetlou said:

I think everyone's concern is that with the addition of Mittelstadt, and maybe any other young players this year or next year, does Reinharts production stay the same or drop off.  

If the Sabres sign him long term at 6 million AAV and he only produces 45-50 pts, how would the fans react in 3-4 years? Would they be satisfied with that contract or upset at the overpayment?

But in 3/4 years 6 million won't be worth what it is today. With the addition of Seattle and with hockey revenue on the rise for the foreseeable future the cap is going to go up pretty nicely in the next 5 years so his cap percentage hit will lower as time goes on.

The question is if you think he's an easily replaceable piece of the puzzle or not. I'm personally on the fence about that one so I wouldn't give him term unless I can make it with low value. My gut would say sign him to a 2 year prove it contract. If he stinks up the joint, trade him by the deadline this season as someone will pay for potential still especially with a bit of term. If he's mediocre keep him and make your decision next off season. My only concern is that is what was planned for this off season and given the dual nature of the season that Jbot isn't swayed either way. 

[JJFIVEOH]

4 hours ago, sweetlou said:

I think everyone's concern is that with the addition of Mittelstadt, and maybe any other young players this year or next year, does Reinharts production stay the same or drop off.  

If the Sabres sign him long term at 6 million AAV and he only produces 45-50 pts, how would the fans react in 3-4 years? Would they be satisfied with that contract or upset at the overpayment?

I don't think there should be much concern. He's put up pretty decent numbers considering he's still very young, been through two coaches, been flip-flopped between center and wing and played on the worst offensive team in the entire league over the last few years. 

 

Not saying it's the way to go, maybe everything just came together in Florida and with a ton of cap friendly contracts and a solid core for several years. But I keep watching there teams handing out massive contracts to guys who don't really deserve it, if Reinhart wants a long term contract the Sabres could probably do it with a lower cap hit. I think Reinhart will only get better considering the circumstances, if he gets a bridge contract he will probably end up asking much more in two years. 

 

The players I mentioned from Florida all signed long term contracts at a very young age before they had a chance to establish themselves as players deserving of larger contracts. In turn, the Panthers will be a dominant team for several years because they are able to afford so many talented players. 

 

Again, maybe it's coincidental. but I don't think so. 

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm sorry but this is crazy to me. Scheifele was a leader on that team and a playoff stud. In no way has Sam shown anything near that. Let me put it this way, would anyone here not embrace a one for one swap of those players (aside from lurking Jets fans)? They'd riot in Winnipeg if they did that.

Just don't see why so many people want to dump money and term at a guy who has not (yet) given us a full season, and although decent at times, at other times has looked downright dreadful. The fact that this deal is taking so long makes me think JBot might feel the same way. Barring a trade, a bridge deal is the only way to go imo. 

Mark Scheifele scored 144 points over his ELC. The Jets bet he was better than that and were right. He was already underpaid in the first year of his contract and that contract will look better and better for Winnipeg over the next six years.

Sam Reinhart scored 139 points over his ELC.

[dudacek]

 

I think the debate for Botterill isn’t really about a long or short term deal. Signing a 22-year-old to a long-term deal makes a ton more sense.

The debate comes down to the cap hit over the term. Do you think 50 points represents Sam’s ceiling moving forward? His typical season? His floor?

A cap-hit of $5 million for a 50-Point winger is a reasonable ballpark looking around the league - less for RFA years,  more for UFA years.

The bridge becomes more attractive when Sam thinks he is a 70 point player and Botterill does not.

Edited July 29, 2018 by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

19 hours ago, Hoss said:

Schiefele had one solid year under his belt when he signed the deal. 29-32-61.

He had one assist in four playoff games to that point.

I didn't really follow Winnipeg, but I think, from things said lately, that he showed real leadership abilities from day 1 so it was an easier bet to make. probably a bargain. People say Sam has hockey smarts, but I don't think we've seen leadership from him or consistent play. matter of fact, he's often called slow or soft (not entirely fair, but those things get said) and his work ethic has been questioned (as has Eichel's) so there is no solid reason to dump the money at him. The smarter gamble says he is unlikely to be better than he's shown.  

[dudacek]

It’s certainly fair to question Sam’s leadership. I get the impression Sam only started being accountable for his own play this year and has yet to man up and be accountable for his team’s play. When Botterill says it’s time for young players who have been here awhile to start to assert themselves, he and Risto are the prime examples.

Soft is the most abused word in hockey. Guys like Zach Rinaldo skate around like idiots, consistently hurt their team by taking stupid temper tantrum penalties, can’t make plays on high-traffic areas, and miss games through injury and suspension, yet somehow aren’t soft. But disciplined guys who consistently skate through abuse to make plays, don’t miss games and don’t take penalties are.

 

Edited July 31, 2018 by dudacek

[Rasmus_]

Two years, 3.75M-4.35M is the area I think he's getting. 

[WildCard]

Any concern that this still isn't done yet?

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Any concern that this still isn't done yet?

Nope

54 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

Two years, 3.75M-4.35M is the area I think he's getting. 

There's almost no way a 2 time 20goal scorer who got 50points last year goes for 3.75m. I think 4.35m might be the very lower limit but my guess is upwards of 4.75-5.5 at this point and more if he signs for more than a year or two. 

[Derrico]

38 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Any concern that this still isn't done yet?

Go concern yet.  But I do find it strange that tomorrow is August 1st and we haven't heard a thing.

[dudacek]

RFAs coming off their ELC who have signed:

Brady Skjei, Jake Virtanen, Brandon Montour, Jimmy Vesey, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Antony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou

 

The ones who are still out there:

Dylan Larkin, William Nylander, Noah Hanifin, Darnell Nurse, Miles Wood, Nick Ritchie, Shea Theodore, Josh Morrisey

[nfreeman]

I’m not concerned, but as I mentioned a week or so ago, I think the fact that there’s no deal yet likely means that they are pretty far apart — and I hope that means that JBott isn’t interested in giving Reino a long-term deal yet.  

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I’m not concerned, but as I mentioned a week or so ago, I think the fact that there’s no deal yet likely means that they are pretty far apart — and I hope that means that JBott isn’t interested in giving Reino a long-term deal yet.  

If you look at the list two posts up, the delay probably means they are at least talking about the possibility of long-term deal. The post-ELC deals getting signed are short-term. Skjei is the first long-term to drop.

Two years, $3.5 to $4 looks about right, based on Mantha and Domi. Six years, 5.5 to 6 looks about right based on last year’s Drouin and Horvat deals. Drouin signed in June, almost immediately after the Habs acquired him. Horvat signed in September.

Nylander and Larkin are relevant in that they will get the big deals this summer. Last year’s big RFA deal was Draisaitl. He signed Aug, 16

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Give Sam an 8 year contract, or give me death.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

If you look at the list two posts up, the delay probably means they are at least talking about the possibility of long-term deal. The post-ELC deals getting signed are short-term. Skjei is the first long-term to drop.

Two years, $3.5 to $4 looks about right, based on Mantha and Domi. Six years, 5.5 to 6 looks about right based on last year’s Drouin and Horvat deals. Drouin signed in June, almost immediately after the Habs acquired him. Horvat signed in September.

Nylander and Larkin are relevant in that they will get the big deals this summer. Last year’s big RFA deal was Draisaitl. He signed Aug, 16

Domi and Reinhart are not comparable IMPO. Mantha I suppose can be but Reinhart has also outproduced him. The key is length of the deal I suppose. I won't be worried until the last week of August for Reinhart. There isn't a rush. 

[dudacek]

Domi put up 135 points over his ELC, Sam 139.

Sam is a year younger and scored more goals, so will get more, but they are definitely comparables.

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Domi and Reinhart are not comparable IMPO. Mantha I suppose can be but Reinhart has also outproduced him. The key is length of the deal I suppose. I won't be worried until the last week of August for Reinhart. There isn't a rush. 

 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Domi put up 135 points over his ELC, Sam 139.

Sam is a year younger and scored more goals, so will get more, but they are definitely comparables.

I don't view them that way. I think his regression and complete inability to score goals change the dynamic and the comparable a lot.