UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What player have we given a long term deal too that's panned out?

We are doomed to lament Jack's contract....

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What player have we given a long term deal too that's panned out?

O'Reilly. 

?

[Hoss]

48 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Just a trigger word, or you are OK with those three lining up against scoring lines?

Also, Casey played a fair amount of wing for the US national program. Sam Reinhart never played wing until he met Dan Bylsma.

Casey is a center. If this team fux him into becoming a wing too I might shoot him just to save him. And I think there are some players who were completely something else until they met Dan Bylsma. “Good.” “Useful.” “Prospect.” All of those things are now just “Girgensons.”

[LGR4GM]

He hasn't earned an 8 yr deal. A team with motivation issues should not give one to a player that spent 35 games screwing around. 

[SwampD]

9 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Casey is a center. If this team fux him into becoming a wing too I might shoot him just to save him. And I think there are some players who were completely something else until they met Dan Bylsma. “Good.” “Useful.” “Prospect.” All of those things are now just “Girgensons.”

Ya gotta just stop. Girgensons was Girgensons long before your Great Satan, Bylsma, got a hold of him. 

And just because someone who "was a center" at eighteen freakin years old, doesn't mean they can play center in the NHL, but that doesn't mean that they will be ruined or even not be a dominant NHLer at wing or even mean that they will never end up playing center ever again.

 

[Hoss]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Ya gotta just stop. Girgensons was Girgensons long before your Great Satan, Bylsma, got a hold of him. 

And just because someone who "was a center" at eighteen freakin years old, doesn't mean they can play center in the NHL, but that doesn't mean that they will be ruined or even not be a dominant NHLer at wing or even mean that they will never end up playing center ever again.

 

Yes, probably over 75% of players who are drafted as centers move to wing. Patrick Sharp is the example I always use when talking about Reinhart.

But Mittelstadt has the toolset to be a puck dominant pivot. He’s a center just like Eichel was a center coming up. If he moves to wing for an extended period it’s disappointing unless he’s an All Star winger.

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Yes, probably over 75% of players who are drafted as centers move to wing. Patrick Sharp is the example I always use when talking about Reinhart.

But Mittelstadt has the toolset to be a puck dominant pivot. He’s a center just like Eichel was a center coming up. If he moves to wing for an extended period it’s disappointing unless he’s an All Star winger.

I only think of centers, though, when talking about the defensive zone. These days, you're either an F1, F2, or F3 in the O zone, and that changes depending on who gets there first so who cares who it is. Hell still be able to create at "wing".

[LGR4GM]

Casey is a center

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Casey is a center

We all swore the same thing about Reinhart 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

We all swore the same thing about Reinhart 

And it sounds like we might see him at center. Bylsma and Murray were trash at player development. 

[LGR4GM]

I don't expect this contract done until August. 

[Randall Flagg]

21 hours ago, Hoss said:

If I see the word sheltered one more time I might do a backflip off the peace bridge. Also, Mittelstadt is a Center who will play center.

Last season, Phil moved Casey to C for about 1.5 periods of his 6 games, and if I remember correctly, that line didn't get a shot attempt off during that time, so Phil moved him back to wing. 

Casey is a center, and he might get time at wing. 

[Ducky]

Lots of centers get owned when they first start playing that position. They are often moved to the wing and back to center. Many hope this is what is happening with Roslovic.

Mittlestadt can start at wing and move to center, nothing wrong with that at all.

[IKnowPhysics]

According to Vogl, Botterill will start talking to Reinhart's agent in mid-July.  He sees the other value contract signings, and surmises Reinhart's contract won't carry much risk, so it's possible to be for only 2-3 years.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

According to Vogl, Botterill will start talking to Reinhart's agent in mid-July.  He sees the other value contract signings, and surmises Reinhart's contract won't carry much risk, so it's possible to be for only 2-3 years.

Can see a logic behind going that way, but would really rather have him locked up at 2/3's (or, more likely, less) than Eichel's locked up at for 6-8 years.

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Can see a logic behind going that way, but would really rather have him locked up at 2/3's (or, more likely, less) than Eichel's locked up at for 6-8 years.

I just think giving Reino 8 years leans much closer to "risk" on the risk/reward scale. What's the reward if we pay Reinhart ~6 mil per, and he skyrockets and becomes a bonafide point-per-game player? 1-2 mil per season in savings, considering if he had signed a bridge, his long-term deal would then have to be for around 7 or 8 mil per instead?

Not negligible, for sure, but what if we sign him to that 6 mil per, and he turns out to be a player who splits the difference between last season's first and second half, and remains a ~50 point player? Do we want to pay 6 mil for that, long term? 

I guess it depends on how much the AAV would be if we lock Sam up to a LT deal now, but if it's around the estimated 6 mil people are throwing around, I think it'd be much easier for Reinhart to under perform on it than over-perform. 

I think the smart strategy here is to plan for the worst, and hope for the best. If the Sabres sign him to a bridge deal, and he earns a sizable raise, Botterill will be smiling when he presents that new contract to Sam. 

[nfreeman]

Joe Yerdon has a good article on Reino's contract status in the Athletic today:

 

Quote

CapFriendly.com shared with The Athletic an estimated bridge deal would be three years for an annual value of $3,871,650 (about $11.6 million overall). Matt Cane at pucksplusplus.com estimated a two-year deal for Reinhart would have an annual value of $4,129,312 (about $8.3 million overall).

...

There is always a peril with long-term deals and the Sabres don’t have to go back too far into their history to find a comparable player to Reinhart that didn’t pan out the way they hoped.

Yes, it’s Cody Hodgson.
...

Getting Reinhart’s contract correct will be a big test for Botterill because you have to assume there will be bigger contracts years from now for Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin. Time and future cap flexibility will benefit the front office, but if they believe Reinhart’s second-half of last season was not a fluke, going long-term is the way to go.

 

 

[dudacek]

Interesting that Yerdon concluded that Reinhart was a much better investment than Hodgson and recommended a long-term deal, based on Samson’s fancystats.

Also interesting how drastically he outproduced most of his his comparables - Trochek, Drouin,  Burakovsky and Mantha - over his entry level deal. The one that beat him was Ehlers.

Edited July 12, 2018 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

EHLERS!!

?

 

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Interesting that Yerdon concluded that Reinhart was a much better investment than Hodgson and recommended a long-term deal, based on Samson’s fancystats.

Also introducing how drastically he outproduced most of his his comparables - Trochek, Drouin,  Burakovsky and Mantha - over his entry level deal. The one that beat him was Ehlers.

And interestingly Ehlers took 6M AAV over 7. 

If Sam wants to take 5.5 AAV over 7, lock that man up long term.

[Randall Flagg]

If Sam could turn into a Trocheck that would soften the blow of losing ROR's spot in the lineup (and then some, arguably). 

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

If Sam could turn into a Trocheck that would soften the blow of losing ROR's spot in the lineup (and then some, arguably). 

Between him and Barkov I swear your 2nd team is Florida

[Randall Flagg]

12 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Between him and Barkov I swear your 2nd team is Florida

The ironic thing is I literally hate almost everything about the Panthers on ice since they lost that series to the Islanders (in which they were better at hockey). Barkov, Trocheck, and Huberdeau range from very nice to freaking amazing, but I couldn't care less and/or actively despise parts of the rest of their roster

[Weave]

Interesting.....

 

Quote

 

CapFriendly‏ @CapFriendly

Reminder that RFA's who have not yet accepted their QO, or who did not file for Arb, will see their offer expire at 5pm EST today. Clubs can extend the deadline to a later date, allowing them to keep negotiating. Clubs do not lose the players rights.

 

 

[LGR4GM]

Lindholm, who has better ES scoring and is a year older, just signed for 4.85m X6 years. Wonder what the impact on Reinhart is.