UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year

[dudacek]

They both have great hockey hair.

[dudacek]

On 12/8/2018 at 12:44 PM, mjd1001 said:

.

  He makes his mark by putting up points on the powerplay, and that does mean something. But, look at his stats this year and for his career...and of all the forwards that get comparable PP ice time across the league..he is mid-pack.  Now certainly every forward in the league isn't good enough to justify PP ice time, and his offensive skills do justify that ice time...but he certainly doesn't excel more than anyone else there.

So what is he?  He is a $3.5 to $4.5 million dollar player.  He is average to above average on the PP (where he gets his points) but in just about any other aspect of the game, he doesn't add anything over a 'replacement level' forward.  I'm good with him as long as he doesn't go on any extended point droughts.  I'm good with him at his current contract. However, I also won't be upset if he eventually gets moved in a trade.

19 points in his last 17games, just three of them on the PP.

18 ES points this year, same as Ryan Johnansen.

Blake Wheeler has 20, David Pastrnak 19, Niklas Backstrom 20, Steven Stamkos 19, Mark Scheifele 21, Phil Kessel 21, Mike Hoffman 14, Ryan O’Reilly 19, Alexander Barkov 17, Bo Horvat 19, Kuznetsov 14, Marchand 15, Drouin 19, Nugent Hopkins 15, Seguin 19, Pavelski 17, Patrik Laine 13, Benn 17, Barzal 12, Tarasenko 12...

Replacement level forwards?

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

19 points in his last 17games, just three of them on the PP.

18 ES points this year, same as Ryan Johnansen.

Blake Wheeler has 20, David Pastrnak 19, Niklas Backstrom 20, Steven Stamkos 19, Mark Scheifele 21, Phil Kessel 21, Mike Hoffman 14, Ryan O’Reilly 19, Alexander Barkov 17, Bo Horvat 19, Kuznetsov 14, Marchand 15, Drouin 19, Nugent Hopkins 15, Seguin 19, Pavelski 17, Patrik Laine 13, Benn 17, Barzal 12, Tarasenko 12...

Replacement level forwards?

Yes, I stand by what I said.  I don't find any value in cherrypicking the last 17 games? Why 17 games this year and not the entire season?  Because it fits the argument to make him look better. 

And please, according to my post, tell me how he is BETTER than a replacement level player when not on the powerplay.  I specified he is no better than a replacement level player in terms of even strength, penalty killing, and late in the game....I stand by that and want to know what evidence there is over his career to think anything differently?

[inkman]

20 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Yes, I stand by what I said.  I don't find any value in cherrypicking the last 17 games? Why 17 games this year and not the entire season?  Because it fits the argument to make him look better. 

And please, according to my post, tell me how he is BETTER than a replacement level player when not on the powerplay.  I specified he is no better than a replacement level player in terms of even strength, penalty killing, and late in the game....I stand by that and want to know what evidence there is over his career to think anything differently?

If you don't appreciate the things Sam does on the ice that help his team and teammates I don't think it's worth a discussion. 

[mjd1001]

14 minutes ago, inkman said:

If you don't appreciate the things Sam does on the ice that help his team and teammates I don't think it's worth a discussion. 

I agree, if you don't see or wont' acknowledge his limitations that I mentioned in my original post...then it is not worth a discussion.

[inkman]

8 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I agree, if you don't see or wont' acknowledge his limitations that I mentioned in my original post...then it is not worth a discussion.

I don't need to acknowledge anything. I'll take Sam for what he is not despise him for what's he not. When they have someone any ***** where near his ability to replace him, then I'll we can have a discussion. To just move him because he doesn't move like Matt Ellis (all arms and legs with no actual movement), I don't know what I tell ya. 

His advanced metrics tell a story of a player that makes everyone he plays with better. His sublime plays on the ice, help the team keep possession and create offense. 

[mjd1001]

32 minutes ago, inkman said:

I don't need to acknowledge anything. I'll take Sam for what he is not despise him for what's he not. When they have someone any ***** where near his ability to replace him, then I'll we can have a discussion. To just move him because he doesn't move like Matt Ellis (all arms and legs with no actual movement), I don't know what I tell ya. 

His advanced metrics tell a story of a player that makes everyone he plays with better. His sublime plays on the ice, help the team keep possession and create offense. 

I have never said I hated him or want him moved.  I actually DO think...with what he brings to the PP, he is an above average player overall for this team.  The point of my whole post is....I'll feel a lot better about this team when you do have someone else who is a bit better so Sam is no longer 2nd on the team in ice time for forwards. Whether that is getting someone else and reducing his ice time by a minute or two...or putting him in a package to do so thats fine.

I'm above neutral on him...maybe my posts are coming across as negative on him because I have a lot of discussions with people at work who seem to think he is on the border of being an NHL superstar..and because he was the 2nd pick he should be almost as good as Eichel.

[dudacek]

5 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Yes, I stand by what I said.  I don't find any value in cherrypicking the last 17 games? Why 17 games this year and not the entire season?  Because it fits the argument to make him look better. 

And please, according to my post, tell me how he is BETTER than a replacement level player when not on the powerplay.  I specified he is no better than a replacement level player in terms of even strength, penalty killing, and late in the game....I stand by that and want to know what evidence there is over his career to think anything differently?

The last 17 games was to demonstrate how he has been producing primarily at even strength for the past month, something you indicated he has not done.

The rest of my post was about the entire season and says exactly that.

This season, Reinhart has been roughly as productive or better at even strength as those 20 players I listed. This year, those are his peers. That is not an opinion, that is fact. I will ask again, are those replacement level players?

Back it up. In the calendar year 2018, Reinhart is the 58th highest ES scoring player in the entire NHL. One less ES point than Tavares, Ehlers and Wheeler. The same as Johansen, Skinner and Forsberg. More than O’Reilly and Laine and Horvat and Scheifele and Parise and Tarasenko. That’s nearly a full season worth of games. There are nearly 400 forwards and 700 players in the NHL. 58th is replacement level?

As for your PK and late-game points, the vast majority of high scoring forwards don’t kill penalties so I’m not sure why you are singling out Reinhart. As I flipped through SH ice time leaders, I got into the 3rd page before I found any scorers. Larkin at 108, O’Reilly at 112 and Marchand at 150. I’m not sure what games you are watching, but Reinhart is always out for the Sabres late in games offensively and frequently defensively as well.

To me, it looks like substantial evidence that Reinhart arrived midway through his 3rd season as the player he will likely be for the next 10 years - a productive first-line NHLer, but not a star.

Unless you define 1st-line production as replacement level.

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by dudacek

[Huckleberry]

Still would like to see Samson tried out at 2C again, only problem is I want a good winger with him for once.

That would most likely moving skinner with him and leaving Eichel with scrubs again.

[mjd1001]

17 hours ago, dudacek said:

The last 17 games was to demonstrate how he has been producing primarily at even strength for the past month, something you indicated he has not done.

The rest of my post was about the entire season and says exactly that.

This season, Reinhart has been roughly as productive or better at even strength as those 20 players I listed. This year, those are his peers. That is not an opinion, that is fact. I will ask again, are those replacement level players?

Back it up. In the calendar year 2018, Reinhart is the 58th highest ES scoring player in the entire NHL. One less ES point than Tavares, Ehlers and Wheeler. The same as Johansen, Skinner and Forsberg. More than O’Reilly and Laine and Horvat and Scheifele and Parise and Tarasenko. That’s nearly a full season worth of games. There are nearly 400 forwards and 700 players in the NHL. 58th is replacement level?

As for your PK and late-game points, the vast majority of high scoring forwards don’t kill penalties so I’m not sure why you are singling out Reinhart. As I flipped through SH ice time leaders, I got into the 3rd page before I found any scorers. Larkin at 108, O’Reilly at 112 and Marchand at 150. I’m not sure what games you are watching, but Reinhart is always out for the Sabres late in games offensively and frequently defensively as well.

To me, it looks like substantial evidence that Reinhart arrived midway through his 3rd season as the player he will likely be for the next 10 years - a productive first-line NHLer, but not a star.

Unless you define 1st-line production as replacement level.

 

Once again, how can I have a discussion (argument) with someone who is cherry-picking players or cherry-picking a set of games to make their point. The only reason people do that i when they are DESPERATE to make their point.

This is where either you DON'T READ WELL or just want to bang your head against the wall.  I said he was a 'replacement level player' when you took all aspects of his game together besides the powerplay. I said he was pretty good on the powerplay..but he was replacement level when you combine the rest of his game...meaning Even strength AND penalty killing ability AND overall defensive play.  Now tell me...how is pointing out one stat regarding his even strength production over just a certain time period proving anything about the actual point I brought up.

You want me to back it up? Go back to my post and try to respond to the actual points I made and the parts of his game I referenced.  Don't fall all over your ego regarding the point you are trying to make while doing that though.

[LGR4GM]

[pi2000]

On 12/6/2018 at 6:38 PM, Thorny said:

He's on pace for 68 points. That's 2nd overall worthy, certainly. 

 

On 12/8/2018 at 5:19 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Bad blind pass on the PP caused the SH goal and turned the game. He does that. It's like a panic move. He didn't need to throw the puck away like that. 

Just remember this, when Pominville was on that line some people talked about resigning him. Off that line he looks like a has been dud again.

Jack makes his linemates look better. It's as simple as that. Show me Reinhart scoring or dominating while not playing with Jack and maybe I'd get on the sign him long term bandwagon.

Reinhart makes too many "hope" passes, 1 of every 10 connect, and then everybody gushes over it.    He still falls down too much.   His compete level sucks.   Eichel had to move out of his apartment because he was a distraction.     His shot sucks.   95% of his goals are cleaning up garbage around the net or deflections... which is nice, but doesn't mean he's top line material.  His skating is better but still sucks compared to recent drafts.   And he has a negative TRpm.    

He was supposed to have this high hockey IQ coming out of junior, with ability to distribute the puck.   He has 75 career assists in 250 NHL games.    That's not good enough... he doesn't make anybody around him better.     

Thank GOD JBOT only gave him a bridge deal.    The organization needs to figure out what he is... is he a top line winger?  middling winger?   center?   

I think we need to reset our expectations for him.   On a contender I see him as a 3rd line winger, maybe second line winger,  but that's his ceiling at this point.    Prove me wrong Samson.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by LGR4GM

[pi2000]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

 

You need to factor in the teams they've played against.... Pominville had his look against some of the worst Corsi teams in the league.   Reinhart got his against some of the best CF teams.  

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

You need to factor in the teams they've played against.... Pominville had his look against some of the worst Corsi teams in the league.   Reinhart got his against some of the best CF teams.  

Yeah, I do not like what Stimson did there. There is nothing in the actual games that suggest to me Reinhart with the top line is a problem other than removing Reinhart's scoring abilities from lines that now cannot hope to buy a goal. 

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Once again, how can I have a discussion (argument) with someone who is cherry-picking players or cherry-picking a set of games to make their point. The only reason people do that i when they are DESPERATE to make their point.

This is where either you DON'T READ WELL or just want to bang your head against the wall.  I said he was a 'replacement level player' when you took all aspects of his game together besides the powerplay. I said he was pretty good on the powerplay..but he was replacement level when you combine the rest of his game...meaning Even strength AND penalty killing ability AND overall defensive play.  Now tell me...how is pointing out one stat regarding his even strength production over just a certain time period proving anything about the actual point I brought up.

You want me to back it up? Go back to my post and try to respond to the actual points I made and the parts of his game I referenced.  Don't fall all over your ego regarding the point you are trying to make while doing that though.

 

I tried to respond to your point that Sam was a replacement level player away from the power play by pointing out he is first-line ES scorer. Is that not relevant?

Also, are we talking about what Sam Reinhart is, or what Sam Reinhart was? What boundaries are you choosing? This season was cherry-picking. This year was cherry picking.

Also, maybe I need you to define “replacement level” for me.

To me, it means a player that is easily replaced by the next man up: ie Sobotka is replacement level because if he goes down the 13th forward (say, Berglund or Girgensons or Rodrigues) is capable of taking his place.

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

13 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Once again, how can I have a discussion (argument) with someone who is cherry-picking players or cherry-picking a set of games to make their point. The only reason people do that i when they are DESPERATE to make their point.

This is where either you DON'T READ WELL or just want to bang your head against the wall.  I said he was a 'replacement level player' when you took all aspects of his game together besides the powerplay. I said he was pretty good on the powerplay..but he was replacement level when you combine the rest of his game...meaning Even strength AND penalty killing ability AND overall defensive play.  Now tell me...how is pointing out one stat regarding his even strength production over just a certain time period proving anything about the actual point I brought up.

You want me to back it up? Go back to my post and try to respond to the actual points I made and the parts of his game I referenced.  Don't fall all over your ego regarding the point you are trying to make while doing that though.

dudacek is right, my friend. Taking everything you could possibly take into account with Reinhart, I have no idea how you can describe him as a replacement level player. Or maybe to you "replacement level" means "another good top 6 forward that has skill-sets I prefer to Sam's." But that's not what a replacement level player is. 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Once again, how can I have a discussion (argument) with someone who is cherry-picking players or cherry-picking a set of games to make their point. The only reason people do that i when they are DESPERATE to make their point.

This is where either you DON'T READ WELL or just want to bang your head against the wall.  I said he was a 'replacement level player' when you took all aspects of his game together besides the powerplay. I said he was pretty good on the powerplay..but he was replacement level when you combine the rest of his game...meaning Even strength AND penalty killing ability AND overall defensive play.  Now tell me...how is pointing out one stat regarding his even strength production over just a certain time period proving anything about the actual point I brought up.

You want me to back it up? Go back to my post and try to respond to the actual points I made and the parts of his game I referenced.  Don't fall all over your ego regarding the point you are trying to make while doing that though.

This is pretty obnoxious. 

[inkman]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

 

Reinhart makes too many "hope" passes, 1 of every 10 connect...

The definition of anecdotal information

[Thorner]

On 12/8/2018 at 9:13 PM, nfreeman said:

I agree with everything in Bourne's tweet except the comparison to Ryan Smyth.  Totally different players IMHO.

Their playing styles are certainly different, although both seem to have a pretty good net-front presence and penchant for goals from in close. 

But I think the comparison is more about perceived value. Criminally underrated players who do the little things. 

[PerreaultForever]

20 hours ago, inkman said:

The definition of anecdotal information

but not wrong.

[mjd1001]

On 12/10/2018 at 3:37 PM, dudacek said:

 

I tried to respond to your point that Sam was a replacement level player away from the power play by pointing out he is first-line ES scorer. Is that not relevant?

Also, are we talking about what Sam Reinhart is, or what Sam Reinhart was? What boundaries are you choosing? This season was cherry-picking. This year was cherry picking.

Also, maybe I need you to define “replacement level” for me.

To me, it means a player that is easily replaced by the next man up: ie Sobotka is replacement level because if he goes down the 13th forward (say, Berglund or Girgensons or Rodrigues) is capable of taking his place.

 

I guess my point is I don't think he is a first line even strength scorer.  If we are going to rank him..on a good team..and only this year so far..he is a 'second line' scorer.  If you look at his whole career, he would be a border-line 2nd/3rd line even strength scorer.  When you combing that with his defensive play and non-use penalty killing....all 3 of those things combined make him a 'replacement level' player in those aspects of his game.

What do I consider a 'replacement level player'?  For me it is someone who would be an average 3rd liner on an average team.  If you ranked the 'ideal' starting lineups for all 31 teams..you get 124 forwards (I know there are more than that because of roster issue/injuries, etc), but a replacement level player is someone who you would slot into the 60-90 ranking.  Below 90, and they are not replacement level, they are worse than that.

[dudacek]

I’m not sure where the 124 is coming from (31 teams x 12 starting forwards per team = 372 NHL forwards, or 93 first liners). The median (186th) highest scoring forward put up 34 points last year.

But If you are saying that Reinhart ranks somewhere between the 50th and 100th best forward in the league, I have no argument with that.

Edited December 11, 2018 by dudacek

[shrader]

17 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m not sure where the 124 is coming from (31 teams x 12 starting forwards per team = 372 NHL forwards, or 93 first liners). The median (186th) highest scoring forward put up 34 points last year.

But If you are saying that Reinhart ranks somewhere between the 50th and 100th best forward in the league, I have no argument with that.

124 = 31*4.  So that was the total number of lines across the league.

[LGR4GM]

Reinhart is tied for 80th in PPG... along with Joe Pavelski, Drouin, Krecji.

Who here views Matthew Barzal as a replacement level player?