Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[MDFan]

23 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Yeah something had to change.

Still think it's dumb that that "something" that had to change was trading arguably their best all-around player while guys who have contributed absolutely zero, Girgensons, Larsson, Bogosian, etc.. are still Buffalo Sabre's.

If they had any trade value they would already be gone.  Other team's scouts are not blind.  Girgenson's and Larsson are waiver candidates at some point this season, and another injury plagued year from Bogo means buyout city for him. 

[Eleven]

The Athletic had a piece from its Saint Louis writer today about whether the team has done enough in the offseason to improve.  O'Reilly got only a passing mention.

[Doohicksie]

I read some of the posts on the St. Louis forum on HFBoards.  They're a tough hockey town (kind of like Buffalo in a way).  They have a lot of knowledgeable posters but they tend to overrate their players until they don't live up to their elevated expectations, then they label them busts (Tage Thompson is a good example of that- after getting rave reviews he was hurried to NHL last season and didn't put up too many points, so they were all too happy to get rid of him.) 

[dudacek]

All fan bases are guilty of that to some extent, but they seem to take it to extremes.

Ty Rattie was Mitch Marner until he wasn’t.

Edited July 18, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

All fan bases are guilty of that to some extent, but they seem to take it to extremes.

Ty Rattie was Mitch Marner until he wasn’t.

I remember them furious at the suggestion that we could get Rattie back in the Miller trade

[Hoss]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

All fan bases are guilty of that to some extent, but they seem to take it to extremes.

Ty Rattie was Mitch Marner until he wasn’t.

And now he’s played his way onto McDavid’s wing.

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I remember them furious at the suggestion that we could get Rattie back in the Miller trade

That's exactly what I'm remembering. 

32 minutes ago, Hoss said:

And now he’s played his way onto McDavid’s wing.

Forgot he surfaced in Edmonton. Sometimes it's just finding the right slot.

Ask Matt Moulson. Ask the Vegas Knights.

[TrueBlueGED]

40 minutes ago, Hoss said:

And now he’s played his way onto McDavid’s wing.

Or, well, Chiarelli's incompetence has resulted in Rattie being the best option for McDavid's wing. 

[Randall Flagg]

Yeah, he spent most of last season in the AHL and then had 5 G, 4A in 14 games by McDavid. We'll see if it sticks. They kept Lucic there for like half a season despite him scoring like 2 goals in that time

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

All fan bases are guilty of that to some extent, but they seem to take it to extremes.

Ty Rattie was Mitch Marner until he wasn’t.

The Winnipeg Free Press ran an article about Adam Lowry being the next Jonathan Toews. It's worst here. 

[Samson's Flow]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

That's exactly what I'm remembering. 

Forgot he surfaced in Edmonton. Sometimes it's just finding the right slot.

Ask Matt Moulson. Ask the Vegas Knights.

Are we not doing phrasing anymore?!?

[LGR4GM]

17 hours ago, Thorny said:

The Winnipeg Free Press ran an article about Adam Lowry being the next Jonathan Toews. It's worst here. 

 

[LGR4GM]

I do want to add one thing to the ROR conversation that we haven't touched a lot on.

ESC = Even Strength Scoring. PPS = Power Play Scoring

2016: 61.67% ESC - 36.67%PPS

2017: 52.73% ESC - 43.64% PPS

2018: 55.74% ESC - 37.75% PPS

Goals: ESG = Even Strength Goals. PPG = Power Play Goals

2016: 20% ESG - 13% PPG

2017: 20% ESG - 14.55% PPG

2018: 14.75% ESG - 24.59% PPG

 

I did everything out of total points he scored. They won't add up to 100% because short handed points are not counted and rounding. The interesting thing to me is the decline in his ESG as a percentage of his total points for 2018. That said, it could just be a down year as the previous 2 years with Buffalo were both exactly at 20% of his points being ESG. I don't think ROR is going to fall off a cliff. I do think however that he could start to see a gradual shift towards being able to score more on the PP. It will depend on his linemates. If he has a good winger the trend may not occur, if not we may see it.

The Sabres would still be better off with ROR than they are without. ROR has spent the last 5 seasons at 55-64 points which is very good for a defensive heavy center and not something I think we can expect to be replaced immediately. I wanted to take a look at his scoring like this to see if he was starting a decline or if he still had tread on those tires. He still has lots of tread although we might start to see a gradual shift depending on usage. 

Edited July 19, 2018 by LGR4GM

[Randall Flagg]

ROR's underlying stats suggest that his ES scoring should have been the same or better than his previous Sabres years and will bounce back. (He had the best possession and expected goals, on ice high danger chance%(meaning the most scoring chances basically), and worst on-ice shooting percentage for of his Sabre career.) Part of the issue was that a couple hundred of his minutes ended up being no-offensive-upside minutes where he took d-zone draws with different and worse linemates than usual, which had the effect of wearing him down while guaranteeing no chance of scoring those shifts. He took more of those shifts than any non-fourth-line-defensive-specialist ever, since people started counting zone starts. 

That he already scored 61 points anyway suggests that, had he gotten his previous year's baseline usage, he could have come close to his career high in points. 

His ES PDO will likely not ever be 96% again, unless he plays for the Islanders and Lehner at some point.

[Brawndo]

Let’s check in on The Blues Locker Room

 

[Sabel79]

I swear, ROR is actually Cousin Oliver.  

[Scottysabres]

The ROR curse is real ?

That Blues 1st for 2020 is looking like pure gold.

 

 

[Drunkard]

The fact that the Blues currently suck doesn't make this a good trade for Buffalo. O'Reilly currently has more points (29) than Berglund, Sobotka, and Thompson have combined (15) for a lesser cap hit ($7.5 million vs $8.275 for just over half the production). The Sabres get scoring from their top line and their defense. Center depth went from a complete strength to a total question mark.

[dudacek]

Skinner Eichel Pominville

Sheary O’Reilly Reinhart

Rodrigues Mittelstadt Okposo 

Wilson Larsson Girgensons

 

Hmmm....?

[Weave]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Skinner Eichel Pominville

Sheary O’Reilly Reinhart

Rodrigues Mittelstadt Okposo 

Wilson Larsson Girgensons

 

Hmmm....?

*swoons*

[pi2000]

51 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

The fact that the Blues currently suck doesn't make this a good trade for Buffalo. O'Reilly currently has more points (29) than Berglund, Sobotka, and Thompson have combined (15) for a lesser cap hit ($7.5 million vs $8.275 for just over half the production). The Sabres get scoring from their top line and their defense. Center depth went from a complete strength to a total question mark.

His on ice exploits cannot make up for all the air he sucks out of the locker room.... apparently. 

[LGR4GM]

And we'd get the woo is me locker room interviews back from captain sad face. Hard pass

[Drunkard]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And we'd get the woo is me locker room interviews back from captain sad face. Hard pass

Still better than watching Berglund and Sobotka suck ***** on the ice.

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And we'd get the woo is me locker room interviews back from captain sad face. Hard pass

Not if that team is winning, and I expect it would with 2 solid lines, Skinners added contribution, 2 reasonable defensive pairs, and 2 stable goaltenders.

[TrueBlueGED]

23 minutes ago, Weave said:

Not if that team is winning, and I expect it would with 2 solid lines, Skinners added contribution, 2 reasonable defensive pairs, and 2 stable goaltenders.

Don't be silly, being sad after losses negates all of that. All of it! ?