Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[Hoss]

18 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Who said there was a trade in the works?  It was all rumor.

That's one thing I hate about this place:  We invent a narrative about impending trades and that speculation becomes fact in the minds of some.

Y'all get a few bits of information and write a novel about it.

...and call it fact.

We can factually say that while many very credible journalists said the Sabres were asking for the third pick from Montreal in trade talks surrounding O’Reilly that Botterill and Bergevin had a “private” meeting in the stands at the draft just before it kicked off. We can also say that Bergevin confirmed discussions with Buffalo specifically about O’Reilly.

[That Aud Smell]

Just now, Hoss said:

We can factually say that while many very credible journalists said the Sabres were asking for the third pick from Montreal in trade talks surrounding O’Reilly that Botterill and Bergevin had a “private” meeting in the stands at the draft just before it kicked off. We can also say that Bergevin confirmed discussions with Buffalo specifically about O’Reilly.

And that Bergevin publicly said Buffalo's price was too high.

[Doohicksie]

...but never said what the price was.

[That Aud Smell]

28 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

...but never said what the price was.

Right. And that's where a fan can read widely respected journalists reporting that JBOT asked for MTL's 3OA, and then go ahead and put 2 and 2 together.

Not ironclad fact, of course, but far from speculation and narrative-building from whole cloth.

[Doohicksie]

I just don't like how conjecture becomes fact.

And with that, I'm done complaining.

[Doohicksie]

What is that relevant to?  Did you post to the wrong thread?

[Lanny]

Quote

“Pierre LeBrun and I did a segment on SportsCentre yesterday where we talked about the possibilities, and we know that Bergevin and Jason Botterill of the Buffalo Sabres are in trade discussions for Ryan O’Reilly. You can assume that Buffalo is shooting for the moon and asking for the third pick overall, which is too steep a price for me – but I can appreciate why Botterill would ask for it.

https://frshockey.com/nhl/canadiens/dreger-looks-at-trade-possibilities-for-canadiens/

 

"you can assume"

 

[Ripper]

I think that we can say it was a definite maybe ?

[apuszczalowski]

You can assume that it's what they wanted, but it will never be a fact until its confirmed by those involved. We dont know what Montreals GM feels is too high. Maybe he expected to get ROR for a mid level prospect or salary dump? Or maybe he wasnt going to give up more then a 3rd or 4th so when Buffalo asked for a 2nd he said that's ridiculous and too high?

[LGR4GM]

... come on now, that's just a fake argument to discredit the info we do have. We know Buffalo's asking price was high, really high. We know it didn't happen at the draft. We know Montreal had what 4 2nd round picks? All evidence points to Botterill wanting #3 and Bergevin said no. I can't believe I have to defend a comparison between Tkachuk and Thompson this vigorously. 

5 hours ago, Skurk Liger said:

Brady Tkachuk: 8g, 23a, 40games, 0.775ppg

Tage Thompson: 14g, 18a, 36games, 0.889ppg

 

I realized that Thompson and Tkachuk are both larger forwards who played their draft year in the NCAA. They are only 1.5months apart in age so they are good comparables. Thompson played on a less talented team than Tkachuk. Tkachuk did better outside of college at the WJC than Tage. I bring this up because I find it interesting that Tage is a Sabre and we know that Botterill was trying to trade for #3 overall and supposedly Brady Tkachuk. 

I think that Botterill was trying to draft Brady Tkachuk at #3 overall. I do not have 100% proof. Sorry I didn't post a disclaimer on this, my original point. 

[Doohicksie]

21 minutes ago, Skurk Liger said:

Sorry I didn't post a disclaimer on this, my original point. 

I'm sorry too.  The point you make is an excellent one though, in that his goal really was Brady Tkachuck or a close double, and that Thompson may be that double.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What I still can’t believe is all the bitterness aimed a Tage when virtually no one has seen him play.  Jbot wanted him for a reason and he was a 1st rd pick who made the NHL in his     1st pro season @ 20.  

Tage is arguably our 3rd or 4th best prospect after Dahlin and Mittelstadt.  That is a top prospect. 

[Drunkard]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What I still can’t believe is all the bitterness aimed a Tage when virtually no one has seen him play.  Jbot wanted him for a reason and he was a 1st rd pick who made the NHL in his     1st pro season @ 20.  

Tage is arguably our 3rd or 4th best prospect after Dahlin and Mittelstadt.  That is a top prospect. 

I don't think there's any bitterness towards him personally (other than maybe his parents for giving him that stupid name). The bitterness comes from him potentially being the best piece we received in the handful of nickels we received for our quarter (O'Reilly).

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

I don't think there's any bitterness towards him personally (other than maybe his parents for giving him that stupid name). The bitterness comes from him potentially being the best piece we received in the handful of nickels we received for our quarter (O'Reilly).

 

Last I looked 5 nickels equals a quarter.  

[Drunkard]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Last I looked 5 nickels equals a quarter.  

And last I looked it's much harder to replace a quarter than it is to replace 5 nickels. We picked up a pretty shiny nickel in Sheary along with a Canadian penny in Hunwick for a whopping 4th round pick.

Using your logic why not trade Eichel then? I bet we could get 10 nickels for him. We could probably get a whole roll of nickels for Dahlin too. We can roll in nickels.

Edited July 5, 2018 by Alkoholist

[GASabresIUFAN]

In keeping with your analogy, if your valuating ROR as a quarter, I’d value the trade as follows:

1) Tage - at least 12.5 cents

2) 1st rd pick 10 cents 

3) 2nd rd pick in 2021 at 3 cents

4) long Term cap savings 7 cents

5) two veteran roster players 7.5 cents each. 

[Taro T]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

In keeping with your analogy, if your valuating ROR as a quisrter, I’d value the trade as follows:

1) Tage it at leaNoland5 cents

2) 1st rd pick 10 cents 

3 e) 2nd rd pick in 2021 at ic cents

4) long Term cap savings 7 cents

5) two veteran roster players 7.5 cents each. 

You view the Sabres as having nearly doubled O'Reilly's value with that trade?

That seems (very) optimistic.

I'm expecting nothing more from Sobotka than what the Sabres got from Legwand, and that really seems best-case by far IMHO.

When Berglund was mentioned as potentially being a piece coming back (when most reports were focused on Parayko as the major piece) was cool w/ that, then started reading about the contract & how unappreciated his last couple of years had been and soured on him.  Am back to believing he could still be useful as the primary defensive (old time #3, perhaps #2 by ice time) center.  Will wait & see, but expect at least the 4th year he'll be a boat anchor if not the 3rd as well.  If Sobotka can only be useful 1 more year, there won't have been much cap relief over the life of the 3 contracts.  Though where the Sabres MAY get cap relief (last year of O'Reilly's deal) will be when they need it most.

Am OK w/ Thompson as the prospect.  The Sabres now have 3 potential snipers to eventually be the 2 finishers on the top 2 lines.  (Thompson, Olofsson, & Nylander; though have seen nothing of Alex in person to believe he'll grow into that role.)

The deal doesn't look as ugly as at 1st blush, but there are still a lot of pieces that have to end up at the upper tail of expectations for the Sabres to have "won" the trade.  To have them crushing it seems a bit far fetched at present.

Edited July 5, 2018 by Taro T

[Samson's Flow]

32 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The deal doesn't look as ugly as at 1st blush, but there are still a lot of pieces that have to end up at the upper tail of expectations for the Sabres to have "won" the trade.  To have them crushing it seems a bit far fetched at present.

I think it was more we had built ourselves up to getting at least two of the Blues best prospects (Parayko, Thomas, Kyrou, Dunn) based on the initial rumored offers, that when we first heard that JB prioritized getting NHL players and a different prospect we all were shaking our head.

After digesting, I see that his strategy was to get enough NHL level players to eliminate having to fill out the 3rd and 4th lines with AHL call ups. We'll see if it works, but adding 3 roster players for one is something that could work in ensuring we aren't DFL again.

[Drunkard]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

In keeping with your analogy, if your valuating ROR as a quarter, I’d value the trade as follows:

1) Tage - at least 12.5 cents

2) 1st rd pick 10 cents 

3) 2nd rd pick in 2021 at 3 cents

4) long Term cap savings 7 cents

5) two veteran roster players 7.5 cents each. 

If that's how you see it then no wonder you're happy with the trade. I see the pieces returning as pennies and nickels with the potential of any of those pieces becoming dimes at best. Time will tell.

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

In keeping with your analogy, if your valuating ROR as a quarter, I’d value the trade as follows:

1) Tage - at least 12.5 cents

2) 1st rd pick 10 cents 

3) 2nd rd pick in 2021 at 3 cents

4) long Term cap savings 7 cents

5) two veteran roster players 7.5 cents each. 

1) .10

2) .05 in a high risk investment account

3) .03 in an even higher risk investment account

4) .07

5) .02 each

I'm still happy with the trade.

[triumph_communes]

9 hours ago, Skurk Liger said:

Brady Tkachuk: 8g, 23a, 40games, 0.775ppg

Tage Thompson: 14g, 18a, 36games, 0.889ppg

 

I realized that Thompson and Tkachuk are both larger forwards who played their draft year in the NCAA. They are only 1.5months apart in age so they are good comparables. Thompson played on a less talented team than Tkachuk. Tkachuk did better outside of college at the WJC than Tage. I bring this up because I find it interesting that Tage is a Sabre and we know that Botterill was trying to trade for #3 overall and supposedly Brady Tkachuk. 

13 of those goals were on the power play. Different players. 

[Ripper]

Sources in St. Louis say that O'Reilly, Nolan and C. Johnson are opening a bar  ?

[Sabel79]

55 minutes ago, Ripper said:

Sources in St. Louis say that O'Reilly, Nolan and C. Johnson are opening a bar  ?

And subsuquently demolishing a donut shop. 

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

13 of those goals were on the power play. Different players. 

Also true and something to consider. The following year he put up 19goals and only 7 were ppg. Tkachuk had 3ppg and 1 shg in his first year, we will have to see if he plays in year 2. 

 

In other news, I found this quite interesting.

[darksabre]

lol Islanders