Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[nfreeman]

After diving into the analytics, I think Botterill has an outside chance of winning this trade and immediately improving this team. 

 

...

 

 

The takeaway is that this is not an off-the-hip trade by Botterill.  This was very carefully calculated, likely with help from his analytics department.  But this is also the kind of modern trade that's right out of Moneyball (see: trading Pena to play Hatteberg): a trade of a team's star player for a statistical gain, and if it backfires, it could cost Botterill his job.

 

As others have said -- excellent work here sir.

 

 

It took me literally all day to read through this thread at work and get caught up. Lots of good stuff, some bad stuff and some silly stuff in here.

 

I'm in the camp of not liking this trade but if the 3 players that were brought in help push Girgensons and Larsson out of the line-up then I'll like it more.

 

ROR, while a hell of a hockey player, really came off as a guy who sniffed his own farts and I hope his absence makes improves the "locker-room", whatever that means.

 

And yet this cracked me up...

[Doohicksie]

And the real analytics question left remaining: what the hell do they see in Tage Thompson that warrants this ######?

 

He's not super mobile, but has a great shot (on a par with Jack's from what I've seen, including the tricky release).  He's big enough to take abuse in front of the net (once he bulks up a bit).  Look in the Welcome Tage thread for the Youtubes I posted of his three NHL goals and his UConn highlights.  If they can convince him he's not Afenigenov (i.e., shoot now and don't dangle), he could be great.  To me he looks like a pure finisher we haven't had since... well, Vanek.  And with his size he could be the second coming of Thomas Holmstrom.

[DarthEbriate]

And the real analytics question left remaining: what the hell do they see in Tage Thompson that warrants this ######?

Paul Hamilton

@pham1717

Thompson has said a couple of times that he's going to get a top 6 opportunity with the Sabres.

 

The Americans are part of the Sabres...

[IKnowPhysics]

I don't think those differences in usage are especially meaningful. They're really close. And we have to keep in mind we're only looking at faceoff starts here, not on the fly shift starts, which make up the majority of shift starts. Sadly, we don't have those numbers to look at. In any even, I think we can agree that Eichel's minutes are about to get considerably harder with ROR gone. I expect Berglund/Sobotka to eat some of those, but not all.

 

 

I think they're meaningful in the context of their respective teams: one's a top line forward that sees top six opponents, one's a specialty forward that doesn't crack the top six or see other top six forwards .  I agree about the shift starts.  I definitely agree that with ROR gone, Eichel's QoC will likely go up, as he will attract other team's top players (at least in the games against the line-matching coaches).

 

We might have to start line-matching Berglund, et al, against the opponents' best forwards to free up Eichel, instead of going top vs top.

Edited July 2, 2018 by IKnowPhysics

[Doohicksie]

ROR on comments about losing passion last year: “I stand by them ... I wanted to personally do things different, be more honest. I stand by it ... I feel like I have a spark in me now. There’s something different. I don’t regret anything that’s happened.” #stlblues

 

He sounds like a domestic abuser:  "I promise honey, it'll be different this time.  I'm a changed man.  Honest!"

[TrueBlueGED]

He's not super mobile, but has a great shot (on a par with Jack's from what I've seen, including the tricky release). He's big enough to take abuse in front of the net (once he bulks up a bit). Look in the Welcome Tage thread for the Youtubes I posted of his three NHL goals and his UConn highlights. If they can convince him he's not Afenigenov (i.e., shoot now and don't dangle), he could be great. To me he looks like a pure finisher we haven't had since... well, Vanek. And with his size he could be the second coming of Thomas Holmstrom.

Here's a real question: would Thomas Holmstrom be nearly as valuable today with how the league is playing?

[Brawndo]

Something I haven’t seen brought up, how the hell where the Sabres not on Berglund’s 10 Team No Trade List?

[IKnowPhysics]

He sounds like a domestic abuser:  "I promise honey, it'll be different this time.  I'm a changed man.  Honest!"

 

Sounds like a player trying to be classy by not admitting that he wanted to be traded.  I'm betting his agent did all the talking behind closed doors, which then got leaked intentionally or unintentionally, and got the media frothing.

[TrueBlueGED]

He sounds like a domestic abuser: "I promise honey, it'll be different this time. I'm a changed man. Honest!"

Alternative interpretation: he has incredibly high standards for himself and desperately wants to get better. He's just not talented enough to give more than he has to this point, so it always seems to never change.

[Doohicksie]

Here's a real question: would Thomas Holmstrom be nearly as valuable today with how the league is playing?

 

I don't know.  Is Thomas Vanek?  I mean, they play(ed) a similar game, innit?

Edited July 2, 2018 by Doohickie

[TrueBlueGED]

Something I haven’t seen brought up, how the hell where the Sabres not on Berglund’s 10 Team No Trade List?

He saw how many Swedes we have!

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't know. Is Thomas Vanek?

Nope. There's a reason he's bouncing around the league.

[DarthEbriate]

Here's a real question: would Thomas Holmstrom be nearly as valuable today with how the league is playing?

Right now, no. But within five years somebody is going to win a Cup with a "heavy" bigger team that has a great goalie or some such... and all the GMs will go bonkers and for a few seasons all the littler speed guys will disappear.

 

Holmstrom was excellent for what he was asked to do. Vanek is still a good player in front of the net. Reinhart is good in front of the net, speedy or not.

[Doohicksie]

Nope. There's a reason he's bouncing around the league.

 

And yet his analytics are comparable to Jack's.  He's bouncing around because he's near the end of his career and teams know it.  He'll continue to get 1 year deals as long as he wants to play.

 

My point is all we all bemoan the fact that Jack needs finishing wings.  I think this is what JBot had in mind when he got Thompson.  He may not turn out to be that guy, but he's got a reasonable shot.  Based on his comments he seems to think he'll get the opportunity.

[Taro T]

It doesn't matter.

 

Seriously.

 

Berglund doesn't have to perform at a high level.  He just needs to eat up the tough minutes to shelter Casey (and possibly Samson if he's returning to center) so they can learn their roles in the system properly.  Once they're up to speed (which may be well into the 2019-20 season), Berglund becomes an afterthought... or fourth line center.

 

This season is a transitional season for the Sabres; at the end of it the hope is they will be competitive thereafter.  If Berglund can live up to the scenario in the post IKP made, that's bonus and maybe we'll actually be good this season.

 

But JBot can win this trade even if Berglund/Sobotka are worthless, if it turns out Thompson is a top six winger, especially if he meshes with Jack.

It DOES matter.

 

Seriously.

 

I am f###ing tired of paying good money to watch s##### hockey. Berglund not being able to eat hard minutes will cause the on-ice product to be subpar. It also could very easily force Mittelstadt &/or Reinhart into tougher situations than they are prepared for, thus retarding their development.

 

This sucks.

[Doohicksie]

Right now, no. But within five years somebody is going to win a Cup with a "heavy" bigger team that has a great goalie or some such... and all the GMs will go bonkers and for a few seasons all the littler speed guys will disappear.

 

Holmstrom was excellent for what he was asked to do. Vanek is still a good player in front of the net. Reinhart is good in front of the net, speedy or not.

 

Well, and also you don't want every player to be cut from the same cloth.  Even if you have a team of speedsters, you're still going to need some size, some power.

It DOES matter.

 

Seriously.

 

I am f###ing tired of paying good money to watch s##### hockey. Berglund not being able to eat hard minutes will cause the on-ice product to be subpar. It also could very easily force Mittelstadt &/or Reinhart into tougher situations than they are prepared for, thus retarding their development.

 

This sucks.

 

I think JBot and HCPH need to formulate a development plan for the core pieces.  And if that means we lose 6-4, with 5 goals coming against Berglund's line, so be it.  But don't be tempted to bail him out with the core centers if they are ready for the task.

Personally, I'm kind of hoping Berglund plays a role like David Legwand when he was here.  Quiet, ate up tough assignments including PK, very little ego, just went out and played.  I hope we can get that out of one or both of the vets from St. Louis.

[sabresparaavida]

He is a top 30C

And there are not 30 competitive teams.

[WildCard]

He sounds like a domestic abuser:  "I promise honey, it'll be different this time.  I'm a changed man.  Honest!"

Come on now

[Doohicksie]

Come on now

 

Do you think his time in St. Louis will be any different than his previous teams?

 

I don't.

[Darryl Shannon's +/-]

It DOES matter.

 

Seriously.

 

I am f###ing tired of paying good money to watch s##### hockey. Berglund not being able to eat hard minutes will cause the on-ice product to be subpar. It also could very easily force Mittelstadt &/or Reinhart into tougher situations than they are prepared for, thus retarding their development.

 

This sucks.

Isn't O'Reilly responsible for a lot of this? If you are brought in to lead a team, effort and will don't need talent. I saw a soft, apathetic team at home going through the motions time and time again.

 

Then we would get to hear him talk about the need to be better, tougher, etc. Go out and do it!?!? Like Lindy used to preach, do things out of character. Try to hit someone, go in strong on a forecheck.

 

If they tried to sell me on the same team as last year plus dahlin, I'm not buying. I wanted movement, and people feeling uncomfortable. Because I don't want to be in the situation next February where I can't give tickets to a game away for free.

[tom webster]

Exactly. This is the antithesis of a prospect report I want to read on a guy coming back

 

The league is dominated by speed. Sure you need balance in contract money and skill level, but you can and should 10000% have a fast team, especially in your top 6, and that's apparently where Thompson is gonna slot

Sorry, but not all six of your top six have to be speed burners. Not one scouting report refers to Tage as slow. You have to play fast and you have to have a significant amount of speed burners but not all twenty of Vegas’ team were fast. Brayden McNabb was a top defenseman on that team and he might be as slow as any defenseman in the league.

[Utica Club]

I'll keep the trend going!   Glad you're here and what a wonderful username and avatar.   For an expat like me, seeing old school reminders of WNY is awesome ...  Man, I want a cold one NOW.

 

 

Welcome! as for your question, you'll get radically different answers depending on who you ask, of course :lol:

 

 

UC for me!

 

Thanks for the warm welcome!  Looking forward to discussing the upcoming season with you.  Good or bad (hopefully good), I'm looking forward to seeing how all of the question marks on this roster will be answered.  Glad to be here!

[WildCard]

Sorry, but not all six of your top six have to be speed burners. Not one scouting report refers to Tage as slow. You have to play fast and you have to have a significant amount of speed burners but not all twenty of Vegas’ team were fast. Brayden McNabb was a top defenseman on that team and he might be as slow as any defenseman in the league.

Every scouting report refers to his skating as a work in progress and something he needs to improve on

 

Our top centers going forward are Eichel and Mittelstadt. Both are very fast. I would like someone that can keep up with them.

 

Vegas forwards were fast. One of the reasons they ran through the west was they ran around slower teams like the Kings and Sharks

[Robviously]

Every scouting report refers to his skating as a work in progress and something he needs to improve on

 

Our top centers going forward are Eichel and Mittelstadt. Both are very fast. I would like someone that can keep up with them.

 

Vegas forwards were fast. One of the reasons they ran through the west was they ran around slower teams like the Kings and Sharks

That doesn't mean he's slow.  I'm guessing it's a comment on his technique and not a crazy one given his height.  I've read a couple reports that also call him "quick."

 

He's 6'5" and played at 205 lbs last year, which is probably 30 pounds lighter than he'll be when he fills in.  It's tough to extrapolate too much from what he's done in the league thus far when he's got so much physical development to still complete.  

 

He's big, he sees the ice well, he goes to the net, and he's not afraid to shoot.  There's a lot to like about Concept of Thompson.  One of my biggest gripes about last year's Sabres is that nobody seemed to know what to do or where to go in the offensive zone when they didn't have the puck.  Like, literally no one would know how to get in position to receive a pass and put the puck on the net.  If TT wants to drive to the net or wait in the slot for a one-timer, then he's a nice addition.

[GASabresIUFAN]

ROR gave us 21 minutes a night. 15.5 ES, 4 PP, 1.5 PK.

 

Last year 23 of his 61 pts points, including 15 of his 24 goals came on the PP. Just 9 ES goals last season....9.

 

It seems to me that his PT can easily be moved. Casey gets the 4 minutes of PP time. Beglund or Sokotka gets the 1.5 on the PK. Casey likely gets 10-12 minutes of his ES time and the remaining few minutes gets divided between Jack and Berglund/Sobotka.

 

I suspect Casey will match ROR’s PP production.

 

The more I think about, the less I’m disappointed he’s gone. He made it clear he didn’t want to be here. He also isn’t fast enough for the style we want to play. Obviously his leadership was also lacking.