Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[tom webster]

Save a whopping 150k of salary cap space

I hate when people do this. We saved a lot more then $150K. It’s not like they were going to get two players to play for free.

[Brawndo]

This is from The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford and Corey Pronman.

 

 

 

Thompson, 20, was the Blues’ first-round pick in 2016. He played 41 NHL games as a rookie last season out of necessity and had his moments, registering three goals and nine points. But the 6-foot-5, 205-pound right winger also showed some flaws that might have worried the Blues.

 

“Tage, listen, I think he’s got potential,” said Corey Pronman, The Athletic’s prospect guru. “I think he might be a second-line forward one day. He’s 6-foot-5, he’s got high-end puck skills, a high-end shot, makes plays. But he doesn’t play with pace, he takes shifts off here and there, and he’s got some room to develop. I think with Buffalo, he’ll be a potential second-line, third-line guy, play some power play, that’s what I see him topping out as. You didn’t want to lose Thomas and you didn’t want to lose Kyrou. Those are the two big pieces, and you couldn’t lose either two of those guys, particularly Thomas. I did not see any way they could have included him.”

[Derrico]

Wildcard, I normally agree with many of your takes but I think you are off base with the most recent. Firstly it is wayyyyy too early to evaluate his last draft. Dahlin was obvious so it had to be Samuelson you had an issue with because in the 4th round onward it's all a big crapshoot. Not to mention from my limited viewing I've loved what I've seen from that 4th rounder.

 

Also, your wrong on pomiville. We got rid of Ennis in that deal. That's a huge positive right there. Then u factor in us getting scandella, that was without a doubt a great trade.

[Randall Flagg]

This is from The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford and Corey Pronman.

 

 

 

Thompson, 20, was the Blues’ first-round pick in 2016. He played 41 NHL games as a rookie last season out of necessity and had his moments, registering three goals and nine points. But the 6-foot-5, 205-pound right winger also showed some flaws that might have worried the Blues.

 

“Tage, listen, I think he’s got potential,” said Corey Pronman, The Athletic’s prospect guru. “I think he might be a second-line forward one day. He’s 6-foot-5, he’s got high-end puck skills, a high-end shot, makes plays. But he doesn’t play with pace, he takes shifts off here and there, and he’s got some room to develop. I think with Buffalo, he’ll be a potential second-line, third-line guy, play some power play, that’s what I see him topping out as. You didn’t want to lose Thomas and you didn’t want to lose Kyrou. Those are the two big pieces, and you couldn’t lose either two of those guys, particularly Thomas. I did not see any way they could have included him.”

Sweeeeeeeeeet Jesus.

[tom webster]

Tage Thompson equals Michael Peca. Book it. Not same type of player, same type of initial fan reaction followed by year two fan reaction.

And, by the way, he’s regarded as a pretty good skater, especially for a guy that big.

FWIW, I want fast, quick and shifty as well but as with everything, you need some balance.

[dudacek]

I'm not presenting this as a point but it's an amusing exercise: It was suggested to read the forums of neutral fan bases, their "wider NHL" threads around the time the trade went down. I've read probably 10 at this point and we've been uniformly laughed at in every single one. Not just questioned, laughed at. 

And this shouldn't convince anyone of anything, of course, but people who want to argue against it should note that others feel the same way towards the "experts." 

With the caveat that I can go to another team's forum and learn an in-depth injury history of their 9th best prospect, what skating adjustments were made to their 3rd line wing, nuances at the heart of their goaltender's rebound problem, and how the left-wing lock works within 30 seconds, whereas blue checkmark rumor monger who loves the trade can only tell me that Berglund is gritty and that Botts had 4 offers for Kane until a week later when he never had any offers for Kane.

 

 

 

Let me guess, HFBoards?

I agree that there is a lot of information available there. But you have to weed through a lot of noise.

Groupthink. Heavily weighted towards teenage hockey nerds. General dismissal of veterans and overvaluation of prospects.

Short attention spans. Lot of flavour of the month thinking.

 

 

1) Traded for Balloon

 

2) Targeted Tage Thompson and Danny O'Reagan as the principle/only prospects back, for a rebuilding team, in return for two of our best players

 

3) Drafted lumbering Samuelsson. Similarly, Tage Thompson is a big, lumbering guy

 

4) I didn't like his draft this year

 

5) He brought back Berglund and Sobotka as the big pieces for RoR. Two guys the Blues have been trying to ditch for awhile

 

6) Pomminstein

 

7) The only attempt at addressing the top 6 by Botterill so far? Trading for Connor Sheary.

Never mind the moves you’ve neglected to mention, the vast majority of this consists of premature judgements, don’t you think?

[WildCard]

On the first part: Kane wasn’t a prime asset. We all thought he should be due to age and ability but the league did not. It was reported by Botterill and the top insiders (real insiders, not fake twitter ones) that San Jose’s offer was never topped at any point in the process. He wasn’t valued around the league.

Tage Thompson is by no means a “garbage prospect.” He’s highly regarded. He may not turn into anything significant and he’s definitely flawed, but that’s how prospects work. Eichel, McDavid, Dahlin and Matthews are the only prospects of the last five/six years that didn’t have some level of serious flaws.

 

Dahlin was a given. Mittelstadt was not, he fell and there were some grumbles among Sabres fans when he was picked. He’s also not a finished product so we’ll see.

 

Anybody on here that attempts to make serious evaluations of any picks outside of the very top names is fooling themselves and everybody else. Even when I went out of my way to try to catch prospects it was impossible to see more than like five of their games.

Thompson is highly regarded? Kyrou and Thomas are highly regarded, Thompson wasn't even in their top 5. He's viewed consistently by analysts as a slow footed guy who maybe is a 2nd liner at some point. He's got more than some flaws, he also doesn't have a ton of potential

 

I'll address your points one by one:

 

1- I'll give you Baloon

2- I like Tage, I think he is a legit prospect and goal scorer -- I'll give you Reagan, but that trade more about dumping an expiring contract and getting a 1st for player we couldn't resign (i.e. no way were we giving Kane 7x7) 

3- Samuelsson is a complement to puck moving defense and will be a nasty, big body -- need a balanced roster -- loved this pick

4- see #3, after that, who knows

5- The 1st, the 2nd and Tage were the pieces, the others are throw ins --- Berg and Svot will help bottom 6

6- I'll take Pommer over Ennis any day, seems like Minny would as well -- since they just bought out Ennis --- as for rest of that deal, Scandella > Foligno

7- You are forgetting Mittlestadt -- 

 

 

What about UPL ?

Hickey (getting rid of Fasching), Oglevie  and Pilut ?

Resigning Borgen and Nelson ?

Commitment to Rochester ?

Signing Asplund, Olofsson, 

 

 

A lot of these moves are singles, not HR's, but they are important as a series of steps and not a grand slam, like picking Dahlin

I'm never going to give a GM credit for signing draft picks by a previous regime. He did nothing to earn that decision making other than 'oh look these guys actually turned out, neat.'

 

UPL is nice, and yeah he got rid of Fasching, nice. He got rid of one prospect I don't like and brought in 2 more I don't like. Not great. 

 

I liked the Pilut move, for sure

 

Are they important steps? Sure, don't see why they're not. Listen I'd feel so much better about him if O'Reagan and Thompson weren't the two prospects we got back. But, they are. We emptied our cupboard and restocked it with boxed soup. 

 

Wildcard, I normally agree with many of your takes but I think you are off base with the most recent. Firstly it is wayyyyy too early to evaluate his last draft. Dahlin was obvious so it had to be Samuelson you had an issue with because in the 4th round onward it's all a big crapshoot. Not to mention from my limited viewing I've loved what I've seen from that 4th rounder.

 

Also, your wrong on pomiville. We got rid of Ennis in that deal. That's a huge positive right there. Then u factor in us getting scandella, that was without a doubt a great trade.

Sure it's way too early to evaluate the draft. But I'm not gonna wait 4 years to come back and address it on the board when it's 100% certain. All I can say right now is I just wasn't a fan

 

Yes, I did not like Samuelsson. I don't like big bodied, slow guys. And that's what Thompson and Samuelsson are

 

I liked the Scandella trade. We still also have Pomminstein. Granted he comes off in a year anyways, so maybe not a huge selling point in my favor

[apuszczalowski]

Who is the next problem in the Sabres locker room?

 

We got rid of Kane, and now ROR. Who is next on the list? Maybe Reinhart?

it will be whomever Eichel doesnt get along with again, and we will all blame that person for being a lockerroom cancer who just cant play nice with Eichel....

[WildCard]

This is from The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford and Corey Pronman.

 

 

 

Thompson, 20, was the Blues’ first-round pick in 2016. He played 41 NHL games as a rookie last season out of necessity and had his moments, registering three goals and nine points. But the 6-foot-5, 205-pound right winger also showed some flaws that might have worried the Blues.

 

“Tage, listen, I think he’s got potential,” said Corey Pronman, The Athletic’s prospect guru. “I think he might be a second-line forward one day. He’s 6-foot-5, he’s got high-end puck skills, a high-end shot, makes plays. But he doesn’t play with pace, he takes shifts off here and there, and he’s got some room to develop. I think with Buffalo, he’ll be a potential second-line, third-line guy, play some power play, that’s what I see him topping out as. You didn’t want to lose Thomas and you didn’t want to lose Kyrou. Those are the two big pieces, and you couldn’t lose either two of those guys, particularly Thomas. I did not see any way they could have included him.”

Sweeeeeeeeeet Jesus.

Exactly. This is the antithesis of a prospect report I want to read on a guy coming back

 

Tage Thompson equals Michael Peca. Book it. Not same type of player, same type of initial fan reaction followed by year two fan reaction.

And, by the way, he’s regarded as a pretty good skater, especially for a guy that big.

FWIW, I want fast, quick and shifty as well but as with everything, you need some balance.

The league is dominated by speed. Sure you need balance in contract money and skill level, but you can and should 10000% have a fast team, especially in your top 6, and that's apparently where Thompson is gonna slot

[Randall Flagg]

 

 

Let me guess, HFBoards?

I agree that there is a lot of information available there. But you have to weed through a lot of noise.

Groupthink. Heavily weighted towards teenage hockey nerds. General dismissal of veterans and overvaluation of prospects.

Short attention spans. Lot of flavour of the month thinking.

For sure. I could never leave this home for there. It's actually amazing how their trade reaction has been to bunker down in the pro and anti-Botterill groups that built literally 10 months ago and fling pooo about the trade from that context, whereas there's been a lot more free-flowing ideas over here. 

 

I meant that example to counter appeals to guys whose floor is not as low as hf dogma but who rarely provide us with true value the way you can find buried in a place like that. 

 

I'd just as soon listen to neither if I had unlimited tape, time, and stats at my hands

[WildCard]

Never mind the moves you’ve neglected to mention, the vast majority of this consists of premature judgements, don’t you think?

What moves did I neglect to mention?

 

If you have to pick comfortable or not with his talent evaluation, which is it? I get it's right to say 'well let's wait and see', but I mean come on we're on a message board, not a press conference

[IKnowPhysics]

After diving into the analytics, I think Botterill has an outside chance of winning this trade and immediately improving this team.  To understand this possibility, you have to look at both O'Reilly and the most important player coming back to the Sabres, Patrik Berglund, very closely to understand how each of them contributed to the team and produced points.  You have to go beyond the lopsided comparison of 24G and 37A for O'Reilly and 17G and 9A for Berglund.

 

Housley used O'Reilly as a jack of all trades: O'Reilly led Sabres forwards with 1268 minutes of even strength, was 2nd to Larsson in shorthanded minutes with 126, and led the team in powerplay minutes with 291.  This is akin to taking the player with the highest attributes in NHL 2018 and putting him on all of your lines.  His total time on ice was third on the team, only behind Risto and Scandella- ahead of every other defenseman.  To say he got leaned on to carry the team is an understatement- his player usage shows he has the hardest quality of competition of any regular forward, but he was successful in this role by all basic measurable individual attributes: goals, assists, possession, etc.

 

Breaking down O'Reilly's game will help reveal how he really contributed:  Of his 24 goals, 9 of them were even strength.  The other 15 were on the powerplay.  Of his 37 assists, 25 of them were even strength.  8 of them were on the powerplay.  4 were shorthanded.  O'Reilly produced 0.43 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 1.18 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  O'Reilly produced 0.87 P1/60 (P1 is goals or primary assists).

 

Berglund wasn't used very much, partly due to injury.  Berglund played 769 even strength minutes.  He played 53 minutes shorthanded.  He played 98 minutes on the powerplay.

 

Breaking down Patrik Berglund's game will help reveal how he could contribute:  Of his 17 goals, 13 were at even strength; even in his limited time, this put him fourth on the team behind only Tarasenko, Schenn, and Schwartz, who all logged more than 1200 even strength minutes.  3 goals were on the powerplay.  1 was shorthanded.  Of his 9 assists, 6 were at even strength.  3 of them were on the powerplay.  Berglund produced 1.01 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 0.47 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  Berglund produced 1.29 P1/60.

 

O'Reilly had good even strength possession in a tough role.  He posted a Corsi For % of 49.9 in a role where his Quality of Competition of 0.13 and Offensive Zone Start % was 41.1.  Berglund matched that possession with a CF% of 52.4 in an extremely similar even strength usage: he had a QoC of 0.15 and a OZ Starts % of 43.2.

 

The analysis so far shows that the Sabres might try to use Berglund in a way that he produces primary points as a 2/3 center and give him the even strength minutes to do so.  He produced that way in a similar situation in St Louis.  I don't know if the Sabres will give him shorthanded or powerplay minutes.

 

The problem that arises is that O'Reilly's even strength possession could have been held back by his teammates.  O'Reilly's Corsi For % Quality or Teammate (Corsi Quality of Teammates; The weighted average CF% of a player’s teammates) was 46.5.  This was bottom five among Sabres.  Berglund's possession numbers, close to O'Reilly's, came with better teammates: Berglund's Corsi For % Quality of Teammate was 50.7.  This is middle of the road among Blues players, but still a considerably better situation than O'Reilly.  This isn't surprising, considering St Louis is a markedly better possession team than Buffalo: The overall range of CF%QoTs for each team, Buffalo players ranged from 46.15 to 48.45.  St Louis ranged from 47.28 to 52.69.  (Side note: Combined with the game outcomes (losing), this could be a contributing factor to why O'Reilly wasn't happy with the team performance: he had on average some of the worst possession teammates on a bad possession team.)  So while Berglund may have had a better set of teammates than O'Reilly, O'Reilly wasn't going to be in a much better spot regardless of who he played with in Buffalo.

 

The gigantic X factor left standing in this analysis is if Berglund can continue to produce at the pace he did at even strength in St Louis but with Buffalo Sabres as teammates.  If the answer is yes, it is possible that Berglund can replace much of O'Reilly's even strength contribution.  And if that is the case, Buffalo will have won this trade hands down, no question, and received a package of players that can improve this team, with draft pick cherries on top.

 

Another, lesser factor is who will replace O'Reilly's 3.1G/60 on the powerplay, but this is harder to pin down statistically.

 

If this all sounds familiar, Marty Biron was spouting these kinds of thoughts in different way, claiming that most of O'Reilly's production was on the powerplay.  It's not necessarily wrong, but there's definitely a deeper nuance here.

 

The takeaway is that this is not an off-the-hip trade by Botterill.  This was very carefully calculated, likely with help from his analytics department.  But this is also the kind of modern trade that's right out of Moneyball (see: trading Pena to play Hatteberg): a trade of a team's star player for a statistical gain, and if it backfires, it could cost Botterill his job.

Edited July 2, 2018 by IKnowPhysics

[Mustache of God]

It took me literally all day to read through this thread at work and get caught up. Lots of good stuff, some bad stuff and some silly stuff in here.

 

I'm in the camp of not liking this trade but if the 3 players that were brought in help push Girgensons and Larsson out of the line-up then I'll like it more.

 

ROR, while a hell of a hockey player, really came off as a guy who sniffed his own farts and I hope his absence makes improves the "locker-room", whatever that means.

[dudacek]

What moves did I neglect to mention?

 

If you have to pick comfortable or not with his talent evaluation, which is it? I get it's right to say 'well let's wait and see', but I mean come on we're on a message board, not a press conference

Dumping Ennis, acquiring Scandella for Foligno, signing a bunch of crappy free agents last summer, burying Moulson, trading for Wilson, trading Fasching for Hickey, rebuilding the depth on defence, trading for Sheary

[WildCard]

Real solid post IKP, very well done

Dumping Ennis, acquiring Scandella for Foligno, signing a bunch of crappy free agents last summer, burying Moulson, trading for Wilson, trading Fasching for Hickey, rebuilding the depth on defence, trading for Sheary

I addressed all of those in subsequent posts. Besides the burying Moulson part, which I do like

[Taro T]

What about his moves makes you feel like you can trust his talent evaluation?

Mittelstadt, who, though we were all ecstatic about picking, was not a lock.

 

Davidsson. Kid looked great at the WJC. Expect he needs to marinate a lot more, but he'll be a good one.

 

Pekar looks like he was a good value pick as well.

 

And the Kane & O'Reilly deals along w/ his faith in Housley bring his evaluation skills into question.

[dudacek]

Real solid post IKP, very well done

 

I addressed all of those in subsequent posts. Besides the burying Moulson part, which I do like

I see that. But not before I wrote my post. ????

After diving into the analytics, I think Botterill has an outside chance of winning this trade and immediately improving this team.  To understand this possibility, you have to look at both O'Reilly and the most important player coming back to the Sabres, Patrik Berglund, very closely to understand how each of them contributed to the team and produced points.  You have to go beyond the lopsided comparison of 24G and 37A for O'Reilly and 17G and 9A for Berglund.

 

Housley used O'Reilly as a jack of all trades: O'Reilly led Sabres forwards with 1268 minutes of even strength, was 2nd to Larsson in shorthanded minutes with 126, and led the team in powerplay minutes with 291.  This is akin to taking the player with the highest attributes in NHL 2018 and putting him on all of your lines.  His total time on ice was third on the team, only behind Risto and Scandella- ahead of every other defenseman.  To say he got leaned on to carry the team is an understatement- his player usage shows he has the hardest quality of competition of any regular forward, but he was successful in this role by all basic measurable individual attributes: goals, assists, possession, etc.

 

Breaking down O'Reilly's game will help reveal how he really contributed:  Of his 24 goals, 9 of them were even strength.  The other 15 were on the powerplay.  Of his 37 assists, 25 of them were even strength.  8 of them were on the powerplay.  4 were shorthanded.  O'Reilly produced 0.43 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 1.18 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  O'Reilly produced 0.87 P1/60 (P1 is goals or primary assists).

 

Berglund wasn't used very much, partly due to injury.  Berglund played 769 even strength minutes.  He played 53 minutes shorthanded.  He played 98 minutes on the powerplay.

 

Breaking down Patrik Berglund's game will help reveal how he could contribute:  Of his 17 goals, 13 were at even strength; even in his limited time, this put him fourth on the team behind only Tarasenko, Schenn, and Schwartz, who all logged more than 1200 even strength minutes.  3 goals were on the powerplay.  1 was shorthanded.  Of his 9 assists, 6 were at even strength.  3 of them were on the powerplay.  Berglund produced 1.01 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 0.47 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  Berglund produced 1.29 P1/60.

 

O'Reilly had good even strength possession in a tough role.  He posted a Corsi For % of 49.9 in a role where his Quality of Competition of 0.13 and Offensive Zone Start % was 41.1.  Berglund matched that possession with a CF% of 52.4 in an extremely similar even strength usage: he had a QoC of 0.15 and a OZ Starts % of 43.2.

 

The analysis so far shows that the Sabres might try to use Berglund in a way that he produces primary points as a 2/3 center and give him the even strength minutes to do so.  He produced that way in a similar situation in St Louis.  I don't know if the Sabres will give him shorthanded or powerplay minutes.

 

The problem that arises is that O'Reilly's even strength possession could have been held back by his teammates.  O'Reilly's Corsi For % Quality or Teammate (Corsi Quality of Teammates; The weighted average CF% of a player’s teammates) was 46.5.  This was bottom five among Sabres.  Berglund's possession numbers, close to O'Reilly's, came with better teammates: Berglund's Corsi For % Quality of Teammate was 50.7.  This is middle of the road among Blues players, but still a considerably better situation than O'Reilly.  This isn't surprising, considering St Louis is a markedly better possession team than Buffalo: The overall range of CF%QoTs for each team, Buffalo players ranged from 46.15 to 48.45.  St Louis ranged from 47.28 to 52.69.  (Side note: Combined with the game outcomes (losing), this could be a contributing factor to why O'Reilly wasn't happy with the team performance: he had on average some of the worst possession teammates on a bad possession team.)  So while Berglund may have had a better set of teammates than O'Reilly, O'Reilly wasn't going to be in a much better spot regardless of who he played with in Buffalo.

 

The gigantic X factor left standing in this analysis is if Berglund can continue to produce at the pace he did at even strength in St Louis but with Buffalo Sabres as teammates.  If the answer is yes, it is possible that Berglund can replace much of O'Reilly's even strength contribution.  And if that is the case, Buffalo will have won this trade hands down, no question, and received a package of players that can improve this team, with draft pick cherries on top.

 

Another, lesser factor is who will replace O'Reilly's 3.1G/60 on the powerplay, but this is harder to pin down statistically.

 

If this all sounds familiar, Marty Biron was spouting these kinds of thoughts in different way, claiming that most of O'Reilly's production was on the powerplay.  It's not necessarily wrong, but there's definitely a deeper nuance here.

 

The takeaway is that this is not an off-the-hip trade by Botterill.  This was very carefully calculated, likely with help from his analytics department.  But this is also the kind of modern trade that's right out of Moneyball (see: trading Pena to play Hatteberg): a trade of a team's star player for a statistical gain, and if it backfires, it could cost Botterill his job.

I don’t know that I believe this take. But I do think hockey departments are smarter than we credit them.

 

And I am relatively certain our PP and PK can survive without O’Reilly.

Edited July 2, 2018 by dudacek

[Samson's Flow]

After diving into the analytics, I think Botterill has an outside chance of winning this trade and immediately improving this team.  To understand this possibility, you have to look at both O'Reilly and the most important player coming back to the Sabres, Patrik Berglund, very closely to understand how each of them contributed to the team and produced points.  You have to go beyond the lopsided comparison of 24G and 37A for O'Reilly and 17G and 9A for Berglund.

 

Housley used O'Reilly as a jack of all trades: O'Reilly led Sabres forwards with 1268 minutes of even strength, was 2nd to Larsson in shorthanded minutes with 126, and led the team in powerplay minutes with 291.  This is akin to taking the player with the highest attributes in NHL 2018 and putting him on all of your lines.  His total time on ice was third on the team, only behind Risto and Scandella- ahead of every other defenseman.  To say he got leaned on to carry the team is an understatement- his player usage shows he has the hardest quality of competition of any regular forward, but he was successful in this role by all basic measurable individual attributes: goals, assists, possession, etc.

 

Breaking down O'Reilly's game will help reveal how he really contributed:  Of his 24 goals, 9 of them were even strength.  The other 15 were on the powerplay.  Of his 37 assists, 25 of them were even strength.  8 of them were on the powerplay.  4 were shorthanded.  O'Reilly produced 0.43 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 1.18 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  O'Reilly produced 0.87 P1/60 (P1 is goals or primary assists).

 

Berglund wasn't used very much, partly due to injury.  Berglund played 769 even strength minutes.  He played 53 minutes shorthanded.  He played 98 minutes on the powerplay.

 

Breaking down Patrik Berglund's game will help reveal how he could contribute:  Of his 17 goals, 13 were at even strength; even in his limited time, this put him fourth on the team behind only Tarasenko, Schenn, and Schwartz, who all logged more than 1200 even strength minutes.  3 goals were on the powerplay.  1 was shorthanded.  Of his 9 assists, 6 were at even strength.  3 of them were on the powerplay.  Berglund produced 1.01 goals per 60 minutes at even strength.  He produced 0.47 assists per 60 minutes at even strength.  Berglund produced 1.29 P1/60.

 

O'Reilly had good even strength possession in a tough role.  He posted a Corsi For % of 49.9 in a role where his Quality of Competition of 0.13 and Offensive Zone Start % was 41.1.  Berglund matched that possession with a CF% of 52.4 in an extremely similar even strength usage: he had a QoC of 0.15 and a OZ Starts % of 43.2.

 

The analysis so far shows that the Sabres might try to use Berglund in a way that he produces primary points as a 2/3 center and give him the even strength minutes to do so.  He produced that way in a similar situation in St Louis.  I don't know if the Sabres will give him shorthanded or powerplay minutes.

 

The problem that arises is that O'Reilly's even strength possession could have been held back by his teammates.  O'Reilly's Corsi For % Quality or Teammate (Corsi Quality of Teammates; The weighted average CF% of a player’s teammates) was 46.5.  This was bottom five among Sabres.  Berglund's possession numbers, close to O'Reilly's, came with better teammates: Berglund's Corsi For % Quality of Teammate was 50.7.  This is middle of the road among Blues players, but still a considerably better situation than O'Reilly.  This isn't surprising, considering St Louis is a markedly better possession team than Buffalo: The overall range of CF%QoTs for each team, Buffalo players ranged from 46.15 to 48.45.  St Louis ranged from 47.28 to 52.69.  (Side note: Combined with the game outcomes (losing), this could be a contributing factor to why O'Reilly wasn't happy with the team performance: he had on average some of the worst possession teammates on a bad possession team.)  So while Berglund may have had a better set of teammates than O'Reilly, O'Reilly wasn't going to be in a much better spot regardless of who he played with in Buffalo.

 

The gigantic X factor left standing in this analysis is if Berglund can continue to produce at the pace he did at even strength in St Louis but with Buffalo Sabres as teammates.  If the answer is yes, it is possible that Berglund can replace much of O'Reilly's even strength contribution.  And if that is the case, Buffalo will have won this trade hands down, no question, and received a package of players that can improve this team, with draft pick cherries on top.

 

Another, lesser factor is who will replace O'Reilly's 3.1G/60 on the powerplay, but this is harder to pin down statistically.

 

If this all sounds familiar, Marty Biron was spouting these kinds of thoughts in different way, claiming that most of O'Reilly's production was on the powerplay.  It's not necessarily wrong, but there's definitely a deeper nuance here.

 

The takeaway is that this is not an off-the-hip trade by Botterill.  This was very carefully calculated, likely with help from his analytics department.  But this is also the kind of modern trade that's right out of Moneyball (see: trading Pena to play Hatteberg): a trade of a team's star player for a statistical gain, and if it backfires, it could cost Botterill his job.

This is excellent IKP and makes me feel less pessimistic about the trade than I had reading the previous 26 pages.

 

If Berglund can fill the defensive center role, that leaves Jack and Casey to play the scoring center roles. You know, like actual team building.

[Randall Flagg]

I didn't even think about the PP. I have IKP's post bookmarked to read soon. 

 

That changes a lot of things. Dahlin and Risto on the same unit, back to 3 forwards? 

[dudacek]

IKP’s post is an example of the type of alternate thinking that can get lost in a sea of quick reaction message board piling on.

 

And also an example of why I love this board.

Edited July 2, 2018 by dudacek

[darksabre]

I didn't even think about the PP. I have IKP's post bookmarked to read soon. 

 

That changes a lot of things. Dahlin and Risto on the same unit, back to 3 forwards? 

Mittelstadt, Reinhart, Eichel, Rodrigues, Dahlin, Guhle all possibly available for regular PP duty this year?

[Randall Flagg]

Here's an analysis of Sobotka of a poster who's particularly angry today on hf. It's analytics heavy and I don't know what most of them mean, but it's interesting because it's a take from before we had any idea we were getting Vlad, early April: 

 

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/roster-speculation-2018-off-season.2474709/page-4#post-144216721

Edited July 2, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[IKnowPhysics]

I see that. But not before I wrote my post.

 

I don’t know that I believe this take. But I do think hockey departments are smarter than we credit them.

 

And I am relatively certain our PP and PK can survive without O’Reilly.

 

There are absolutely reasons why this could be wrong.  Maybe second assists really matter and O'Reilly's better than Berglund's primary points.  Maybe Berglund needs teammates to get possession so he can produce.  Maybe O'Reilly's teammates were trash and he's a god.

 

I agree about the special teams: I think we have talented players that can produce on the PP.  Even strength is where we got our ###### kicked in.

 

 

This is excellent IKP and makes me feel less pessimistic about the trade than I had reading the previous 26 pages.

 

If Berglund can fill the defensive center role, that leaves Jack and Casey to play the scoring center roles. You know, like actual team building.

 

I feel the same way.  It's a feeling of relief.

 

I don't even think that Berglund needs to be used as a defensive specialist like Larsson.  I think he's going to be given a two-way 2/3C role that wasn't far from O'Reilly's even strength usage.

Edited July 2, 2018 by IKnowPhysics

[Randall Flagg]

Mittelstadt, Reinhart, Eichel, Rodrigues, Dahlin, Guhle all possibly available for regular PP duty this year?

I think if you put me at gunpoint I'd still shy away from building units without ROR. I wouldn't know what to do. Phil will experiment and we'll try to learn from the results! 

[darksabre]

I wonder if we could end up being a team that leans heavily on the PP this year? I think we'll have the tools to do it, even if we don't quite have it at even strength.