Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[Hoss]

There aren't a lot of people that talk about this trade on twitter and radio shows whose opinions on hockey mean anything to me, to be honest. Hall for Larsson was great for the Oilers in their eyes, as was PK-Weber for Montreal. Tough, but necessary moves.

 

And Botterill doesn't give my solace by virtue of being an NHL GM, especially when stupid-me was able to predict the depth scoring problem that he made worse as the initial moves were being made. I judge the move on the merits of things I know and nothing more, and nothing less, while trying at all times to absorb as much new information as I can.

 

Especially when I can pinpoint where we differentiate - they view Berglund and Sobotka both as they were 4 years ago and thus adding value to the deal when every bit of evidence in the world suggests we could have grabbed the both of them for virtually nothing, as their own GM's words suggest he's been trying to dump them for a long time now.

I stopped reading after the part about Hall for Larsson. That’s revisionist history. Everybody hated that. The only “positive” comments I remember were people saying that Larsson isn’t complete trash.

[LGR4GM]

I have serious questions about botterill ability to evaluate talent effectively.

[Sherman]

The Pham interview places more blame on ROR than Eichel and goes far enough to sound like ROR was petty and even jealous

Wasn’t that the rumor that got him shipped out of Colorado? He was jealous of the attention Duchene got when he felt he was more deserving? While he may have arguably been correct in both situations in a team sport and in a leadership role you cannot let that affect your game or your relationships with teammates.

[WildCard]

I have serious questions about botterill ability to evaluate talent effectively.

Same

[Randall Flagg]

I stopped reading after the part about Hall for Larsson. That’s revisionist history. Everybody hated that. The only “positive” comments I remember were people saying that Larsson isn’t complete trash.

I can delete it if you'd like to keep reading, most of my post happened after that.

 

I'm not actively trying to revise history, but I absolutely, without a doubt read that exact justification from reputable published sources of hockey media.

Edited July 2, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Neo]

Thanks!

 

It's going to be one hell of an interesting year regardless of what their record is.  I'm excited to see how Ulmark does, how "amazing" Dahlin is, and if the Sabres can improve at all.

 

I'm also a little curious to see how much O'Reilly might improve the Blues this year.

 

 

I'll keep the trend going!   Glad you're here and what a wonderful username and avatar.   For an expat like me, seeing old school reminders of WNY is awesome ...  Man, I want a cold one NOW.

[Randall Flagg]

My brother, who follows the Sabres, is of the belief that O'Reilly was a locker room cancer.  My opinion is that "cancer" is somewhat overstated, and trading O'Reilly will leave a big hole in the Sabres roster.

 

I think the Sabres will miss having a defensively responsible match-up center, who's good at face offs and seems to be clutch from what I've seen of him internationally at the World Championships for team Canada.

 

For those who follow more closely than me, how did it get to this point - that the Sabres had to get rid of O'Reilly? 

Welcome! as for your question, you'll get radically different answers depending on who you ask, of course :lol:

[darksabre]

Thanks!

 

It's going to be one hell of an interesting year regardless of what their record is.  I'm excited to see how Ulmark does, how "amazing" Dahlin is, and if the Sabres can improve at all.

 

I'm also a little curious to see how much O'Reilly might improve the Blues this year.

UC for me!

[Hoss]

I have serious questions about botterill ability to evaluate talent effectively.

i don’t understand how people have gotten to this point already. There simply isn’t enough of a history here to evaluate this yet.

[WildCard]

i don’t understand how people have gotten to this point already. There simply isn’t enough of a history here to evaluate this yet.

What about his moves makes you feel like you can trust his talent evaluation?

[Randall Flagg]

I have serious questions about botterill ability to evaluate talent effectively.

True, Flagg, Liger, Pi, and WC are going to make one weird TSC. 

 

Shall we bicker amongst ourselves and blame each other for things or focus on acquiring talent to build a team? :P 

[Georgia Blizzard]

What about his moves makes you feel like you can trust his talent evaluation?

 

He inherited a roster that was void of any goalie, defense or winger depth, several bloated contracts and no organizational commitment to pipeline development.

 

He also might have inherited a toxic locker room.

 

 

Since he's taken over:

 

He's addressed goalie, defense depth -- has a start on forward depth, created winning culture as a priority in minors, has instilled a development mindset with prospects

 

Signed who needed to be signed, i.e. Hickey, Pilut, Asplund, UPL, Olofsson, Pu, Borgen

Edited July 2, 2018 by Georgia Blizzard

[WildCard]

He inherited a roster that was void of any goalie, defense or winger depth, several bloated contracts and no organizational commitment to pipeline development.

 

He also might have inherited a toxic locker room.

 

 

Since he's taken over:

 

He's addressed goalie, defense depth -- has a start on forward depth, created winning culture as a priority in minors, has instilled a development mindset with prospects

 

Signed who needed to be signed, i.e. Hickey, Pilut, Asplund, UPL, Oloffsson

1) He addressed goalie and defensive depth, not exactly hard things to do to sign a UFA goalie and trade for spare defensive parts around the league. We have no idea if Pilut or others will even work out; his first attempt with Balloon sure as hell didn't

 

2) Signing players you need to sign, most of which are draft picks he didn't even draft, again isn't impressive at all. What's the alternative, just to not sign them? Why are we giving this guy any credit for following the only steps available to him anyways? 

 

He had two prime assets and got garbage prospects back. We lost a two top 6 players and received a collection of 3rd round talent and two 1sts back. 

 

And look at his draft picks. Mittelstadt and Dahlin were givens. What other picks has he made that really impressed you. Mekar?

Edited July 2, 2018 by WildCard

[Georgia Blizzard]

1) He addressed goalie and defensive depth, not exactly hard things to do to sign a UFA goalie and trade for spare defensive parts around the league. We have no idea if Pilut or others will even work out; his first attempt with Balloon sure as hell didn't

 

2) Signing players you need to sign, most of which are draft picks he didn't even draft, again isn't impressive at all. What's the alternative, just to not sign them? Why are we giving this guy any credit for following the only steps available to him anyways? 

 

He had two prime assets and got garbage prospects back. We lost a two top 6 players and received a collection of 3rd round talent and two 1sts back. 

 

 

On Goalies --- He also drafted UPL, so far, looks like a very promising prospect and WAIVED Lehner (addition by subtraction)

 

On Defense -- He also added Hickey (remember GMTM lost a 3rd in failed attempt at Vesey) and drafted Samuelsson --- in addition to resigning Borgen and Nelson --- again, creating organizational depth at the position 

 

As for signing GMTM's guys --- I get that he didn't draft them, but, he kept the ones that mattered, isn't that a sign that he knows what he's doing ?

 

As for the trades of Kane and ROR -- he got value back, you can argue he should have gotten more, but, they have to run their course

 

Right now, it looks good for him on the Scandella trade and the Sheary trade --- 

 

 

Again, YOU said he can't evaluate talent -- what in all that he's done implies that ?

[MDFan]

There aren't a lot of people that talk about this trade on twitter and radio shows whose opinions on hockey mean anything to me, to be honest. Hall for Larsson was great for the Oilers in their eyes, as was PK-Weber for Montreal. Tough, but necessary moves. 

 

And Botterill doesn't give my solace by virtue of being an NHL GM, especially when stupid-me was able to predict the depth scoring problem that he made worse as the initial moves were being made. I judge the move on the merits of things I know and nothing more, and nothing less, while trying at all times to absorb as much new information as I can. 

 

Especially when I can pinpoint where we differentiate - they view Berglund and Sobotka both as they were 4 years ago and thus adding value to the deal when every bit of evidence in the world suggests we could have grabbed the both of them for virtually nothing, as their own GM's words suggest he's been trying to dump them for a long time now.

I am not disputing your analysis of Berglund and Sobotka, but I think it is highly unlikely they were integral to this deal for JBOT.  Rather, it seems clear they were pieces he had to take to make the money come out right for St. Louis.  It quite possible, even likely in my opinion, that these two guys will perform better than the bottom feeders they have been putting out there the last couple of years in any case.  This was not about saving money, or even about an immediate replacement for O'Reilly, but about shaking up a moribund core that has not worked.  There is certainly room for disagreement as to whether O'Reilly was part of the problem and I guess we will see, but that is the only way to see this trade in my view.

[WildCard]

Again, YOU said he can't evaluate talent -- what in all that he's done implies that ?

1) Traded for Balloon

 

2) Targeted Tage Thompson and Danny O'Reagan as the principle/only prospects back, for a rebuilding team, in return for two of our best players

 

3) Drafted lumbering Samuelsson. Similarly, Tage Thompson is a big, lumbering guy

 

4) I didn't like his draft this year

 

5) He brought back Berglund and Sobotka as the big pieces for RoR. Two guys the Blues have been trying to ditch for awhile

 

6) Pomminstein

 

7) The only attempt at addressing the top 6 by Botterill so far? Trading for Connor Sheary.

Edited July 2, 2018 by WildCard

[Randall Flagg]

I am not disputing your analysis of Berglund and Sobotka, but I think it is highly unlikely they were integral to this deal for JBOT.  Rather, it seems clear they were pieces he had to take to make the money come out right for St. Louis.  It quite possible, even likely in my opinion, that these two guys will perform better than the bottom feeders they have been putting out there the last couple of years in any case.  This was not about saving money, or even about an immediate replacement for O'Reilly, but about shaking up a moribund core that has not worked.  There is certainly room for disagreement as to whether O'Reilly was part of the problem and I guess we will see, but that is the only way to see this trade in my view.

His comments told me otherwise, though they could just be posturing for sure. Regardless, if you time traveled to February and told this board that we traded deadline rental Kane for a man named Tage Thompson, a late, lotto protected 1st, and a 2nd 3 years from now, everyone would say "sounds about right, look at Hanzal/Tatar" and "I certainly haven't heard of that guy" (Liger is excluded from the latter group), which is problematic because Kane was a rental winger. 

[Hoss]

What about his moves makes you feel like you can trust his talent evaluation?

He was respected around the entire league and got one of the 31 top decision-making positions in the world’s greatest league. We’ll see if he earned it but a single season and one and a half offseasons isn’t close to enough time to make any meaningful observations on his talent evaluation.

Scandella was a good get. Kane deal sucked (got lucky with that turning into a first) but it appears the league had no interest in Kane, so I’d rather get what he got than absolutely nothing. This deal is less than 24 hours old so it’s going to be much longer before we can make final judgements on it.

[WildCard]

He was respected around the entire league and got one of the 31 top decision-making positions in the world’s greatest league. We’ll see if he earned it but a single season and one and a half offseasons isn’t close to enough time to make any meaningful observations on his talent evaluation.

Scandella was a good get. Kane deal sucked (got lucky with that turning into a first) but it appears the league had no interest in Kane, so I’d rather get what he got than absolutely nothing. This deal is less than 24 hours old so it’s going to be much longer before we can make final judgements on it.

I will say this for Botterill: with him gone, Rutherford has been turning Pittsburgh into a clown show

 

As for the bold, Bergevin and Chiarelli have one of those top 31 jobs too. Not only that, but Chiarelli has been hired for one of those 31 jobs by multiple teams, and Bergevin holds one in the most demanding market in the entire world, and has held it for a long time. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by WildCard

[nfreeman]

Welcome Utica!

 

 

True, Flagg, Liger, Pi, and WC are going to make one weird TSC. 

 

Shall we bicker amongst ourselves and blame each other for things or focus on acquiring talent to build a team? :P

 

Dude. 

 

Did you just refer to yourself in the 3rd person?

[Randall Flagg]

Welcome Utica!

 

 

 

Dude. 

 

Did you just refer to yourself in the 3rd person?

No, I meant the other Flagg.

[Hoss]

He had two prime assets and got garbage prospects back. We lost a two top 6 players and received a collection of 3rd round talent and two 1sts back.

 

And look at his draft picks. Mittelstadt and Dahlin were givens. What other picks has he made that really impressed you. Mekar?

On the first part: Kane wasn’t a prime asset. We all thought he should be due to age and ability but the league did not. It was reported by Botterill and the top insiders (real insiders, not fake twitter ones) that San Jose’s offer was never topped at any point in the process. He wasn’t valued around the league.

Tage Thompson is by no means a “garbage prospect.” He’s highly regarded. He may not turn into anything significant and he’s definitely flawed, but that’s how prospects work. Eichel, McDavid, Dahlin and Matthews are the only prospects of the last five/six years that didn’t have some level of serious flaws.

 

Dahlin was a given. Mittelstadt was not, he fell and there were some grumbles among Sabres fans when he was picked. He’s also not a finished product so we’ll see.

 

Anybody on here that attempts to make serious evaluations of any picks outside of the very top names is fooling themselves and everybody else. Even when I went out of my way to try to catch prospects it was impossible to see more than like five of their games.

[shrader]

I'm not presenting this as a point but it's an amusing exercise: It was suggested to read the forums of neutral fan bases, their "wider NHL" threads around the time the trade went down. I've read probably 10 at this point and we've been uniformly laughed at in every single one. Not just questioned, laughed at.

 

Message boards aren't a great representation though.  The view of this trade winds up being clouded by the stuff that came out on Friday.  People were throwing around deals where we pretty much were landing every single prospect in the St. Louis system, along with Parayko and a 25 year old Brett Hull (just imagine the amount of pain we undo with that one).  You read all that stuff and it's next to impossible not to think that the deal came up short.  Those other board are far more likely to be aware of that chatter.  I think it's become very obvious over the years here that this message board is not a good representation of the fanbase as a whole. 

[Georgia Blizzard]

1) Traded for Balloon

 

2) Targeted Tage Thompson and Danny O'Reagan as the principle/only prospects back, for a rebuilding team, in return for two of our best players

 

3) Drafted lumbering Samuelsson. Similarly, Tage Thompson is a big, lumbering guy

 

4) I didn't like his draft this year

 

5) He brought back Berglund and Sobotka as the big pieces for RoR. Two guys the Blues have been trying to ditch for awhile

 

6) Pomminstein

 

7) The only attempt at addressing the top 6 by Botterill so far? Trading for Connor Sheary.

 

I'll address your points one by one:

 

1- I'll give you Baloon

2- I like Tage, I think he is a legit prospect and goal scorer -- I'll give you Reagan, but that trade more about dumping an expiring contract and getting a 1st for player we couldn't resign (i.e. no way were we giving Kane 7x7) 

3- Samuelsson is a complement to puck moving defense and will be a nasty, big body -- need a balanced roster -- loved this pick

4- see #3, after that, who knows

5- The 1st, the 2nd and Tage were the pieces, the others are throw ins --- Berg and Svot will help bottom 6

6- I'll take Pommer over Ennis any day, seems like Minny would as well -- since they just bought out Ennis --- as for rest of that deal, Scandella > Foligno

7- You are forgetting Mittlestadt -- 

 

 

What about UPL ?

Hickey (getting rid of Fasching), Oglevie  and Pilut ?

Resigning Borgen and Nelson ?

Commitment to Rochester ?

Signing Asplund, Olofsson, 

 

 

A lot of these moves are singles, not HR's, but they are important as a series of steps and not a grand slam, like picking Dahlin

Edited July 2, 2018 by Georgia Blizzard

[Randall Flagg]

Message boards aren't a great representation though.  The view of this trade winds up being clouded by the stuff that came out on Friday.  People were throwing around deals where we pretty much were landing every single prospect in the St. Louis system, along with Parayko and a 25 year old Brett Hull (just imagine the amount of pain we undo with that one).  You read all that stuff and it's next to impossible not to think that the deal came up short.  Those other board are far more likely to be aware of that chatter.  I think it's become very obvious over the years here that this message board is not a good representation of the fanbase as a whole. 

I agree, which is why the rest of my post addressed the fact that a bunch of guys whose opinions I don't respect in general make me feel the same way as that fact might make you feel. Largely indifferent and dismissive, with some nod to a nugget of truth here and there.