Trade: Ryan O'Reilly to St Louis Blues

[Robviously]

Who is the next problem in the Sabres locker room?

 

We got rid of Kane, and now ROR. Who is next on the list? Maybe Reinhart?

We also ditched Lehner. Basically the three main guys TM brought in to build a winner around are gone. Edited July 2, 2018 by Robviously

[Eleven]

I’m a pretty new hockey fan and am still learning the ins and outs of it. The situation the Sabres are in right now is eerily familiar to another team I’m a fan of. I’ve lived in Houston my entire life and have been a lifelong Astros fan. It’s well known by now that the Astros purposely stripped down the team, built through the draft and shrewd acquisitions and endured several years of bad baseball. They had a painful history very similar to that of the Sabres and fans were rightfully upset with the fact that the new GM and new ownership were purposefully stripping the team down and rebuilding. There were great draft picks that have become the foundation of the Astros 2017 Championship team and their future. For the Sabres that can very well be Eichel, Reinhart if he puts it all together, Dahlin, Mittelstadt and whoever they get with their 1st round picks next year. There were plenty of times where the Astros traded some of the most promising and talented players on an otherwise awful team. They knew that they needed to rebuild from the ground up and that those players weren’t going to be around by the time the team was actually ready to compete. Fans weren’t always happy with the returns of those trades. Heck, several of those trades didn’t necessarily materialize the way that management would have liked. I guess what I’m trying to get at is that there was all the reason in the world to disagree with some of the moves they made, but in the end, their decision to strip it down and build a great locker room culture paid off in a big way. They wouldn’t have won the World Series if it weren’t for the decision to be a cheap team for several seasons. I don’t see any reason why that can’t work for the Sabres. Eichel, Reinhart, Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Guhle and Co. can very well be the future Altuve’s, Correa’s, Springer’s and Bregman’s so to speak. Not all rebuilds go according to plan. From what I can tell there’s been multiple failed “rebuild” attempts in Buffalo over the past decade. But maybe this will finally be the one that changes the history of the franchise.

 

I don't mean to be harsh, but on my keyboard, it's the one to the right of the apostrophe key.

[Randall Flagg]

You are assuming so much about things based upon facts you can not possibly know with this.

We knowingly leveraged ROR as our Jay Beagle despite starving for offense with him as our 2nd best player, driving his ES production to career lows despite all other underlying stats getting better and suggesting that optimal usage wins him a Selke this year, if that's what you're talking about. 

I just saw that Bergy has 4 years left. 

 

The response I've settled on to minimize conflict is "oof." 

[Doohicksie]

It’s well known by now that the Astros purposely stripped down the team, built through the draft and shrewd acquisitions and endured several years of bad baseball.

I live in Fort Worth and I'm a Rangers fan.  We enjoyed taking the Silver Boot from the Stros since they came over to the AL.  And then a historically terrible Astros team won it all.  When the playoffs came, I was rooting for them.  It was fun.

 

Anyway, I can see your point.  It may take another year or two, but considering JBot said the way to build is from the farm club up, a very similar scenario could play out in Buffalo. 

[TrueBlueGED]

This is a good take and could be just as likely. I just think on paper that team should be more than a 60 point team.

 

I agree, and nothing more than average goaltending accomplishes it. Sort of like how Price being healthy made the Canadians good again for a season...but the NHL punditocracy attributed it to jettisoning the "problematic" PK Subban for the leadership of Shea Weber. Then one more season passes, and they go in the toilet. I worry the same kind of evaluative mistake is happening here.

[dejeanerret]

Some people on this board crack me up.  

 

You act as if Bots was given a choice between Parayko, R Thomas, or Berglund and chose Berglund.  Rumors sites all week have been listing Parayko and Thomas as possible pieces. Don't you think if he could have gotten Thomas or Parayko he would have?   It's obvious that Bots did his best to include those pieces, but the Blues woudn't budge.  Even Bergevin in Montreal told the press he was out of the running for ROR, and that Bots wanted to much and to call him when he lowered his price.

 

Had Bots waited a day to pull this deal off it would have been (EDIT:  $7.5 million of free money he was giving away to pay a player no longer on his roster.)  The fact he got what he did with the Blues knowing that was a coup in itself.  He HAD to do a deal today.  It didn't make sense for him to pull a deal off later this summer.

 

He had to deal a player who mailed it in on many nights.  You can quote me all the defensive zone starts and analytical BS all you want.  If you have a guy that has a $7.5 mil AVV, he has to be part of the solution, not the problem. He has to be a leader, kicking guys in the butt each night saying get it together. Leading with his work ethic during games and in practice.  A guy at the end of the season like Jack saying we ARE going to fix this and I'm going to be part of the reason why.  Not moping and whining about how he lost his love for the game.

 

Instead of being that rock, he was a guy that the younger players looked at and said, "well if he can mail it in so can I".

 

Frick, he was coming off two seasons with the Avs where he averaged 22 goals and 37 assists at 24 years old and (forget about $7.5 million) the Avs didn't even want to pay him $6.2 million. Why?  Because he had fallen out of favor with the coaches.  He was soft.  They saw what we saw this season.  So they traded him to Buffalo for what ended up being not much.  

 

Sorry, but with all of his analytical BS, goals, and assists, the Sabres finished in last place. It's not like he was carrying the team on his back.  On the contrary, he was showing our youth through his work ethic that it was OK to not give it your all each and every night, even if your one of the top earners on the team. That's not acceptable in a professional sports environment, period.

 

I look at it as Bots acquired assets.  I applaud the fact that we got two 1st round picks.  Say what you want, but Thompson is an unknown, and it's not like he's 22 years old with barely a sniff of NHL experience.   He was 19 when last season started.

 

A guy like Sobotka he can play solid 3rd line center minutes and his goals and assists matched the sorry pair of Larsson and Girgensons combined minus the whining about wanting out of Buffalo from Larsson.  Berglund's goal total last season would have placed him 5th on this sorry a$$ team.

 

There is no knowing who actually will be suiting up in Buffalo come October.  There could be more moving parts and some of the guys acquired today may be gone tomorrow.  But this deal had to be done today, and Bots moved a player that he knew he had to move.  He got the most he could, and all you couch potato GM's can complain all you want.  It's all white noise.  I'll take the haul, and I'm excited about the direction of this team and the culture and players that Bots is building in the locker room.  We have some young studs, and it's only a matter of time before our core starts taking this team to the next level.

 

Anyone fed up, the Maple Leaf Bandwagon is taking applications. Get your JT jerseys while they're hot.

Edited July 2, 2018 by dejeanerret

[TrueBlueGED]

I think Kane and Lehner were the big ones, closely followed by ROR, whose "problem" was less-known, defined, and certain. 

 

Then you have the party kids who hopefully grow out of it, Jack and Reino. Then, Risto, nobody knows what his problem is but somebody said once he might not listen to coach. 

 

But really, if we were competent at team-building, this stuff has a remarkable ability of smoothing over during not-disgusting seasons

 

We know what it is: being played like Drew Doughty when he's really a 2nd pairing defenseman. This notion, however, leaves Paul Hamilton mystified, so he claims Risto to be uncoachable. 

[Doohicksie]

Maybe Botterill thinks that Reinhart or Mittlestadt is ready.  Maybe he's right, and maybe he's wrong.  And a center came back in the trade, too.

 

Three centers, actually.  Granted, they've all played some wing, but they're all natural centers.

[Eleven]

Some people on this board crack me up.  

 

You act as if Bots was given a choice between Parayko, R Thomas, or Berglund and chose Berglund.  Rumors sites all week have been listing Parayko and Thomas as possible pieces. Don't you think if he could have gotten Thomas or Parayko he would have?   It's obvious that Bots did his best to include those pieces, but the Blues woudn't budge.  Even Bergevin in Montreal told the press he was out of the running for ROR, and that Bots wanted to much and to call him when he lowered his price.

 

Had Bots waited a day to pull this deal off it would have been a $15.7 million cap hit on our books vs. a $8.2 million cap hit (not including Thompson who will probably start in minors.)  The fact he got what he did with the Blues knowing that was a coup in itself.  He HAD to do a deal today.  It didn't make sense for him to pull a deal off later this summer.

 

He had to deal a player who mailed it in on many nights.  You can quote me all the defensive zone starts and analytical BS all you want.  If you have a guy that has a $7.5 mil AVV, he has to be part of the solution, not the problem. He has to be a leader, kicking guys in the butt each night saying get it together. Leading with his work ethic during games and in practice.  A guy at the end of the season like Jack saying we ARE going to fix this and I'm going to be part of the reason why.  Not moping and whining about how he lost his love for the game.

 

Instead of being that rock, he was a guy that the younger players looked at and said, "well if he can mail it in so can I".

 

Frick, he was coming off two seasons with the Avs where he averaged 22 goals and 37 assists at 24 years old and (forget about $7.5 million) the Avs didn't even want to pay him $6.2 million. Why?  Because he had fallen out of favor with the coaches.  He was soft.  They saw what we saw this season.  So they traded him to Buffalo for what ended up being not much.  

 

Sorry, but with all of his analytical BS, goals, and assists, the Sabres finished in last place. It's not like he was carrying the team on his back.  On the contrary, he was showing our youth through his work ethic that it was OK to not give it your all each and every night, even if your one of the top earners on the team. That's not acceptable in a professional sports environment, period.

 

I look at it as Bots acquired assets.  I applaud the fact that we got two 1st round picks.  Say what you want, but Thompson is an unknown, and it's not like he's 22 years old with barely a sniff of NHL experience.   He was 19 when last season started.

 

A guy like Sobotka he can play solid 3rd line center minutes and his goals and assists matched the sorry pair of Larsson and Girgensons combined minus the whining about wanting out of Buffalo from Larsson.  Berglund's goal total last season would have placed him 5th on this sorry a$$ team.

 

There is no knowing who actually will be suiting up in Buffalo come October.  There could be more moving parts and some of the guys acquired today may be gone tomorrow.  But this deal had to be done today, and Bots moved a player that he knew he had to move.  He got the most he could, and all you couch potato GM's can complain all you want.  It's all white noise.  I'll take the haul, and I'm excited about the direction of this team and the culture and players that Bots is building in the locker room.  We have some young studs, and it's only a matter of time before our core starts taking this team to the next level.

 

Anyone fed up, the Maple Leaf Bandwagon is taking applications. Get your JT jerseys while they're hot.

 

I like a lot of what you wrote, but I think Thompson starts the season here.

[Tondas]

Now we're on 16 pages and I certainly can't read all of them.  I really think everyone needs to relax, take a look at this tomorrow, and see if the Sabres got value.  I think they may have done so.  Three roster players and two picks isn't horrible.  It might immediately shore up the Sabres' bottom six, which REALLY needed it, and the Sabs now have three (maybe two*) first-round picks next year.  Think it through.

 

 

 

*SJ will make the playoffs.  But in that rough Central Division, Saint Louis might not.

 

I read that the Blues pick was Top-10 protected.  I think that means if they finish in 22 thru 31 place in the standings (hence draft picks 1-10), the pick is protected.  1 through 21 it is not.  So the Blues could miss the playoffs and finish at 17-21 and we would still get their first rounder in 2019.  Correct??

[TrueBlueGED]

Some people on this board crack me up.  

 

You act as if Bots was given a choice between Parayko, R Thomas, or Berglund and chose Berglund.  Rumors sites all week have been listing Parayko and Thomas as possible pieces. Don't you think if he could have gotten Thomas or Parayko he would have?   It's obvious that Bots did his best to include those pieces, but the Blues woudn't budge.  Even Bergevin in Montreal told the press he was out of the running for ROR, and that Bots wanted to much and to call him when he lowered his price.

 

Had Bots waited a day to pull this deal off it would have been a $15.7 million cap hit on our books vs. a $8.2 million cap hit (not including Thompson who will probably start in minors.)  The fact he got what he did with the Blues knowing that was a coup in itself.  He HAD to do a deal today.  It didn't make sense for him to pull a deal off later this summer.

 

He had to deal a player who mailed it in on many nights.  You can quote me all the defensive zone starts and analytical BS all you want.  If you have a guy that has a $7.5 mil AVV, he has to be part of the solution, not the problem. He has to be a leader, kicking guys in the butt each night saying get it together. Leading with his work ethic during games and in practice.  A guy at the end of the season like Jack saying we ARE going to fix this and I'm going to be part of the reason why.  Not moping and whining about how he lost his love for the game.

 

Instead of being that rock, he was a guy that the younger players looked at and said, "well if he can mail it in so can I".

 

Frick, he was coming off two seasons with the Avs where he averaged 22 goals and 37 assists at 24 years old and (forget about $7.5 million) the Avs didn't even want to pay him $6.2 million. Why?  Because he had fallen out of favor with the coaches.  He was soft.  They saw what we saw this season.  So they traded him to Buffalo for what ended up being not much.  

 

Sorry, but with all of his analytical BS, goals, and assists, the Sabres finished in last place. It's not like he was carrying the team on his back.  On the contrary, he was showing our youth through his work ethic that it was OK to not give it your all each and every night, even if your one of the top earners on the team. That's not acceptable in a professional sports environment, period.

 

I look at it as Bots acquired assets.  I applaud the fact that we got two 1st round picks.  Say what you want, but Thompson is an unknown, and it's not like he's 22 years old with barely a sniff of NHL experience.   He was 19 when last season started.

 

A guy like Sobotka he can play solid 3rd line center minutes and his goals and assists matched the sorry pair of Larsson and Girgensons combined minus the whining about wanting out of Buffalo from Larsson.  Berglund's goal total last season would have placed him 5th on this sorry a$$ team.

 

There is no knowing who actually will be suiting up in Buffalo come October.  There could be more moving parts and some of the guys acquired today may be gone tomorrow.  But this deal had to be done today, and Bots moved a player that he knew he had to move.  He got the most he could, and all you couch potato GM's can complain all you want.  It's all white noise.  I'll take the haul, and I'm excited about the direction of this team and the culture and players that Bots is building in the locker room.  We have some young studs, and it's only a matter of time before our core starts taking this team to the next level.

 

Anyone fed up, the Maple Leaf Bandwagon is taking applications. Get your JT jerseys while they're hot.

 

1) I do think he would have if he could have. That he couldn't is one of the prime reasons myself and others hate the deal. Unlike Kane, who was poised to walk as a UFA, we had no compelling reason to have to move O'Reilly for poor value just to get some value.

 

2) That's not how the cap works. We could have paid O'Reilly the bonus, then traded him, and had him on our cap for zero dollars. 

 

Edit: I'm going to keep going.

 

3) This notion that O'Reilly mailed it in is such complete nonsense. He had his best statistical season as a Sabre and second best ever. 

 

4) You could use the "they finished in last place in spite of him" argument for literally the entire roster. It's so weak. By this reasoning we should move every single player because they were part of a last place team and couldn't lead us higher than that.

Edited July 2, 2018 by TrueBlueGED

[TXSabresFan]

I don't mean to be harsh, but on my keyboard, it's the one to the right of the apostrophe key.

Ha it’s no worry. Just my perspective. I’m sure it very well could be different if I was a lifelong Sabres fan.

[North Buffalo]

I agree, and nothing more than average goaltending accomplishes it. Sort of like how Price being healthy made the Canadians good again for a season...but the NHL punditocracy attributed it to jettisoning the "problematic" PK Subban for the leadership of Shea Weber. Then one more season passes, and they go in the toilet. I worry the same kind of evaluative mistake is happening here.

I worry, though the Sabres seem to be working on developing goaltenders too.  3 first rounders next year depending on what the draft looks like should help, especially if St. Louis doesn't make the playoffs.  Sabres are loading up on developing talent, but I hate how long it is taking and waiting to see if any of them actually can take the next step is such a question mark.  I guess next year will be about developing the young guys which probably means they stink at the beginning of the season and are destined to a similar result as last year.  Maybe more points, but still in the bottom sludge.  Still a healthy Bergland will be a good thing.  The rest of those guys coming back for ROR meh... disappointing.

[Sabel79]

We knowingly leveraged ROR as our Jay Beagle despite starving for offense with him as our 2nd best player, driving his ES production to career lows despite all other underlying stats getting better and suggesting that optimal usage wins him a Selke this year, if that's what you're talking about. I just saw that Bergy has 4 years left. 

 

The response I've settled on to minimize conflict is "oof."

 

Mainly, i was referring to “the handling of off-ice situations” and how this apparently ruined Antipin and made O’Riley sad.

 

It’s easy to watch the big fish (relatively) swim around a tiny pond (a terrible Buffalo team for years now) and be upset when he’s replaced by several smaller fish. But that just might be what the pond needs.

[Doohicksie]

Ha it’s no worry. Just my perspective. I’m sure it very well could be different if I was a lifelong Sabres fan.

 

No, it's not the perspective he was commenting on... it was the long, run-on paragraph.  Use a page break once in a while.

[Randall Flagg]

1) I do think he would have if he could have. That he couldn't is one of the prime reasons myself and others hate the deal. Unlike Kane, who was poised to walk as a UFA, we had no compelling reason to have to move O'Reilly. 

 

2) That's not how the cap works. We could have paid O'Reilly the bonus, then traded him, and had him on our cap for zero dollars. 

One/two more clever moves like Sheary combined with internal usage changes gave this team a lot of potential, keeping their "speed" future in mind. Adding two lumbering cap dumps and a supposed slow prospect while removing the biggest bed of usage-shift potential improvement we had is puzzling. Mittelstadt excites the hell out of me, but he's so young and has produced nowhere to suggest he's even a lock to hit ROR's numbers someday, even though I think he will, I just don't see what is going on here. 

 

I set up my Giroux post the other week just for this kind of situation. He had two main shifts - he went C-to-wing even though that appeared to eviscerate his team's C depth, and played with the other two best forwards, like I clamored for with ROR. His production increased over 70% despite being as old and as slow as he's ever been. Usage matters. Usage and line-building and matching are literally what separates Joel Quenneville and Babcock from hoser coaches that get flushed out of the league. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[dejeanerret]

1) I do think he would have if he could have. That he couldn't is one of the prime reasons myself and others hate the deal. Unlike Kane, who was poised to walk as a UFA, we had no compelling reason to have to move O'Reilly for poor value just to get some value.

 

2) That's not how the cap works. We could have paid O'Reilly the bonus, then traded him, and had him on our cap for zero dollars. 

Why would we pay a player $7.5 million and then trade him?  That's stupid.  Whether it counted towards the cap or not, it doesn't make sense.

[Randall Flagg]

Mainly, i was referring to “the handling of off-ice situations” and how this apparently ruined Antipin and made O’Riley sad.

 

It’s easy to watch the big fish (relatively) swim around a tiny pond (a terrible Buffalo team for years now) and be upset when he’s replaced by several smaller fish. But that just might be what the pond needs.

Clarifying that was dealing with Victor's lack of language somehow to get him in the lineup when he was one of the only D who could flip the ice, finding the situation for his skill rather than jamming a system and changing rosters to do so like schmucks do, and then having a problem with ROR off-ice, whatever it may be, while actively doing those things I just described. If you have to move Ryan, you shouldn't needlessly adhere to a suspect methodology that is achieving you nothing but last place.

[dejeanerret]

I like a lot of what you wrote, but I think Thompson starts the season here.

 

You could be right.  If he does then it's a $832,000 cap hit.  Adjust accordingly

[Eleven]

1) I do think he would have if he could have. That he couldn't is one of the prime reasons myself and others hate the deal. Unlike Kane, who was poised to walk as a UFA, we had no compelling reason to have to move O'Reilly for poor value just to get some value.

 

2) That's not how the cap works. We could have paid O'Reilly the bonus, then traded him, and had him on our cap for zero dollars. 

 

Edit: I'm going to keep going.

 

3) This notion that O'Reilly mailed it in is such complete nonsense. He had his best statistical season as a Sabre and second best ever. 

 

4) You could use the "they finished in last place in spite of him" argument for literally the entire roster. It's so weak. By this reasoning we should move every single player because they were part of a last place team and couldn't lead us higher than that.

 

Don't be so quick to discount dejenneret's analysis.  He/she might not post a lot, but that was a well-thought post (not like your response wasn't; it was).  But there's a lot to unpack in there, and I think he/she may have gotten a couple of things right.

[Doohicksie]

Sabres are loading up on developing talent

 

This is the JBot method.  The idea is that once the talent starts to push its way into your NHL roster, you just keep replenishing the farm club talent, resulting in a long-running contender.  It's the model Pittsburgh used.  And we hired JBot from them to use it here.

 

I'm still on board the JBot bandwagon, hoping he will eventually the method will bear the intended fruit.

 

Pruning the tree a bit as the prospects ripen is to be expected.  The tree is smaller at the moment, but there is a lot of growth coming from the prospects.

[Eleven]

You could be right.  If he does then it's a $832,000 cap hit.  Adjust accordingly

 

I think they can absorb it!

[TrueBlueGED]

Why would we pay a player $7.5 million and then trade him?  That's stupid.  Whether it counted towards the cap or not, it doesn't make sense.

 

I was simply saying you made a point based on a misunderstanding of the cap. Make the cash argument if you want, but if Pegula doesn't care, I certainly don't.

[jahnyc]

Just seems very strange to me that JBot would take on contracts for players that no one else would want when trying to rebuild.  All of these players (Hunwick, Sobotka, Pominville and Berglund) cannot be in our long term plans, yet account for more than $15 million of our cap.  JBot has received very little in return for agreeing to take on these salary obligations.  Add in Bogo and Okoposo for another $11 million in cap and you have a total of six players with about $26 million in space that are untraceable.

 

I am really worried that JBot is in way over his head.

[Two or less]

Who is the next problem in the Sabres locker room?

 

We got rid of Kane, and now ROR. Who is next on the list? Maybe Reinhart?

 

They also got rid of Lehner.