2018 - 2019 Sabres Prospects

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here are our top picks over the last few years plus Thompson

1-1 2018 Dahlin

1-8 2017 Mittelstadt

1-8 2016 Nylander

1-26 2016 Thompson

2-51 2015 Guhle

2-33 2016 Asplund

2-37 2017 Davidsson

2-54 2017 UPL

2-32 2018 Samuelsson

Other then Nylander, all the guys have met or exceeded their development curve, but none have blown away their development on the upside either except Mittelstadt.  So I rank them accordingly.

For example. Davidsson vs Asplund.  They play a similar game from the same league.  Their numbers post draft year were nearly the same.  Asplund however is a year older,  took a big step in his production last season and has made the jump to NA putting him imo one year closer to the NHL and therefore he should be ranked higher.  

Guhle vs Asplund. Both are 2nd rd picks and both are two of TM’s key draft picks. Guhle was a combine wonder who has looked comfortable in the NHL since day one .  Asplund was a guy TM had a 1st rd grade on and traded Pysyk to help get him.  Guhle looks poised to be a full-time NHLer this season.  Asplund just arrived in NA and is starting next season in Roch.  Upsides are similar.  Guhle No.2 pairing vs Asplund middle 6 forward.  Close call, but again I’ll side with the guy closer to the NHL. 

Samuelsson vs Asplund, Davidsson and Guhle.  I like Samuelsson alot.  I was thrilled when we drafted him because, like Asplund, I thought he could go in the end of the first rd.  However, as none of the 2nd rd picks ahead of him on the conveyor have slipped, I slot him behind them except UPL, especially when I think he’s at least 3 years from the NHL. I mentioned previously Samuelsson still has work to do to insure an NHL future, mostly on his skating and two way play. He start college in the fall and a solid season there with some O production will move him up the rankings especially if (or when) the top 4 all establish themselves in the NHL. 

OK so why is Samuelsson 11th not 8th?  Because I think 3 other prospects have similar upside but are closer to the NHL then Matt in Pilut, Olofsson and Borgen. Olofsson is one of the few pure scorers in our system and the 2014 7th rd pick has finally jumped to NA.  Borgen, a 4th rd pick in 2015, brings a similar package to Samuelsson including some phyiscal play, has completed 3 college seasons, has represented the US both at the World Jrs and Olympics, there are no issues with his skating and is already in Rochester.  Lastly, Pilut.  Otto is 22 and was the SHL D of the year, has 5 years of SHL experience, plays the game that fit Housley’s system.  His placing is the most speculative as he wasn’t drafted and it’s hard to know if he can translate his game to NA. I place him high because of his pro experience and fit with the system, but it’s a bit of a shot in the dark.  However, if transitions well he could be in the NHL this season.

Ullmark is a 2012 draft pick and only now a full time NHL player.  UPL looks good so far, but it often takes years for even good goalies to properly develop.  That puts UPL down my list.  As to Pekar, I take a wait and see approach to 4th rd and later picks.  One good D camp raises his profile, but that is about it.  Glotov was a camp darling and it helped him earn an AHL deal and alot of twitter followers.  

[Derrico]

Your rankings are your opinion and nothing wrong with them other than disagreeing with a few but again, that's just my opinion.

What I'm wondering is your updated rankings.  Between the two you it had only been a couple of months and with it being the summer we have almost nothing at all to go on except maybe development camp.  Did you get a chance to watch much of it?  If anyone on the entire list earned an increase in any rankings based almost solely on the very limited viewings we had it was Pekar.  I don't see how there's enough to move many guys since most are just practising.  But that guy looked better then the 20th overall prospect after viewing him imo.  Small sample size ofcourse.

[nfreeman]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Guhle vs Asplund. Both are 2nd rd picks and both are two of TM’s key draft picks. Guhle was a combine wonder who has looked comfortable in the NHL since day one .  Asplund was a guy TM had a 1st rd grade on and traded Pysyk to help get him.  Guhle looks poised to be a full-time NHLer this season.  Asplund just arrived in NA and is starting next season in Roch.  Upsides are similar.  Guhle No.2 pairing vs Asplund middle 6 forward.  Close call, but again I’ll side with the guy closer to the NHL.  

 

Good post, but the bolded is simply not the case.  Guhle has looked well over his head more often than not at the NHL level.

I wouldn't be surprised if Guhle played a lot in the NHL this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he spends most of the year in Rochester either.

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Your rankings are your opinion and nothing wrong with them other than disagreeing with a few but again, that's just my opinion.

What I'm wondering is your updated rankings.  Between the two you it had only been a couple of months and with it being the summer we have almost nothing at all to go on except maybe development camp.  Did you get a chance to watch much of it?  If anyone on the entire list earned an increase in any rankings based almost solely on the very limited viewings we had it was Pekar.  I don't see how there's enough to move many guys since most are just practising.  But that guy looked better then the 20th overall prospect after viewing him imo.  Small sample size ofcourse.

We had the World Jr showcase the other day which featured Samuelsson, UPL and Laaksonen.  Of the three, Laaksonen really jumped out at me watching him move the puck up ice.  We also traded away Pu and acquired Thompson and made other roster moves which hurt some players ability to make the Sabres.  I also spent some time reading other reviews of our prospects and did some comparisons such as the one described between Asplund and Davidsson.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Good post, but the bolded is simply not the case.  Guhle has looked well over his head more often than not at the NHL level.

I wouldn't be surprised if Guhle played a lot in the NHL this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he spends most of the year in Rochester either.

I’ll respectfully disagree somewhat.  Last he he did struggle at times during the late season call up, but from preseason games in his draft year to the 3 game callup and games in Roch that season and last, the kid has played consistently good hockey.  I like that he has developed slowly and properly and think they’ll have a hard time sending him down.  That said with the contract situation as it is and Nelson the 3rd RHD, Guhle could easily end up being the odd man out.  

[dudacek]

The Leafs top 10, 23 and under, according to Pronman

Auston Matthews, C

Mitch Marner, RW

William Nylander, C

Kasperi Kapanen, RW

Timothy Liljegren, D

Travis Dermott, D

Andreas Johnsson, LW

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, C

Jeremy Bracco, RW

Carl Grundstrom, LW

 

The Sabres, according to me

Eichel

Dahlin

Mittelstadt

Reinhart

Ristolainen

Thompson

Nylander

Guhle

Asplund

Davidsson

 

How do we stack up?

[LTS]

We stack up pretty good...

[GASabresIUFAN]

so...

Matthews > Eichel - close?

Marner > Reinhart

Nylander > Mittelstadt (for now)

Lilhjegren < Dahlin

Dermott < Ristolainen

Kapenan > Thompson

Johnnson > Nylander

Sandin > Guhle

Semyon < Asplund

Bracco = Davidsson

Gundersson < Olofsson

I did 11 players.  I have no idea how Pronman  thinks their 3rd rd C pick from this year is a better prospect then their 1st rd pick this year, but whatever.  So I added Sandin for them to even out 3 D each and added Olofsson as the final forward to us.

I'd say we have more upside as a group right now, but Tor has the edge at forward talent and as a current group.  We have a much better D group.  

 

[dudacek]

@GASabresIUFAN

I think he rates Semyon over Sandin the same way you rank Olofsson over Samuelsson - perceived upside.

They are both in his 5th tier - players he thinks will play, but probably not in a top 4 D or top 6 F.

Liljegren is his only tier 4 Leaf prospect - likely top 4D/6F

Edited August 14, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, dudacek said:

@GASabresIUFAN

I think he rates Semyon over Sandin the same way you rank Olofsson over Samuelsson - perceived upside.

They are both in his 5th tier - players he thinks will play, but probably not in a top 4 D or top 6 F.

Liljegren is his only tier 4 Leaf prospect - likely top 4D/6F

Touche!  I was going to ask you where Samuelsson was on your list.

[pi2000]

Justin Bailey deserves to be in this discussion.    This is his year, his moment in time, where he's more than you thought he could be.   When all of his dreams are a heartbeat away,  and the answers are all up to him... Give him one moment in time.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

Justin Bailey deserves to be in this discussion.    This is his year, his moment in time, where he's more than you thought he could be.   When all of his dreams are a heartbeat away,  and the answers are all up to him... Give him one moment in time.

It's not even a good song

[dudacek]

Pronman’s ranking system:

• Special prospect: Projects to be one of the very best at their position in the league
• Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.
• High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.
• Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.
• Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play, probably not in a top role, but is close enough that he could realistically get there.
• Have a chance: Probably not an impact guy but could play in the league and has the toolkit to have an outside chance to be a real player. Have a chance refers to probability to be a good player, not his probability to play NHL games.
• Depth: Player who doesn’t have the skillset to play high in your lineup but could fill out your roster and/or be an injury call-up option.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Pronman’s ranking system:

• Special prospect: Projects to be one of the very best at their position in the league
• Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.
• High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.
• Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.
• Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play, probably not in a top role, but is close enough that he could realistically get there.
• Have a chance: Probably not an impact guy but could play in the league and has the toolkit to have an outside chance to be a real player. Have a chance refers to probability to be a good player, not his probability to play NHL games.
• Depth: Player who doesn’t have the skillset to play high in your lineup but could fill out your roster and/or be an injury call-up option.

Sounds exactly like Scott Cullens from TSN except Cullen adds AAAA players and AHL only.

[dudacek]

My take, in order of how I’d pick them in an expansion draft

Tier 1: Dahlin

Tier 2: Mittelstadt

Tier 3: No one

Tier 4: No one

Tier 5: Nylander*, Asplund, Samuelsson, Ullmark, Thompson

Tier 6: Davidsson, Guhle, Lukkonnen, Olofsson, Pilut, Borgen, Bailey, Baptiste, Hickey

Tier 7: Nelson, Malone, Smith, Ogilvie, Pekar, Laaksonen, Fitzgerald, O’Regan

* I think Nylander has tier 3 skills,  but I don’t believe in him

[Hoss]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

My take, in order of how I’d pick them in an expansion draft

Tier 1: Dahlin

Tier 2: Mittelstadt

Tier 3: No one

Tier 4: No one

Tier 5: Nylander*, Asplund, Samuelsson, Ullmark, Thompson

Tier 6: Davidsson, Guhle, Lukkonnen, Olofsson, Pilut, Borgen, Bailey, Baptiste, Hickey

Tier 7: Nelson, Malone, Smith, Ogilvie, Pekar, Laaksonen, Fitzgerald, O’Regan

* I think Nylander has tier 3 skills,  but I don’t believe in him

Mine based on Pronman’s tiers:

Tier 1: Dahlin

Tier 2: Mittelstadt

Tier 3: none

Tier 4: Nylander, Thompson

Tier 5: Asplund, Samuelsson, Ullmark, Davidsson, Guhle, Olofsson

Tier 6: Lukkonen, Borgen, Nelson, Lakksonen, Pilut, Smith

Tier 7: Bailey, Baptiste, Hickey, Malone, Ogilvie, Pekar, Fitz, O’Regan

[WildCard]

Dahlin tossing out a first pitch. He's a lefty, who knew?

 

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by WildCard

[TrueBlueGED]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Leafs top 10, 23 and under, according to Pronman

Auston Matthews, C

Mitch Marner, RW

William Nylander, C

Kasperi Kapanen, RW

Timothy Liljegren, D

Travis Dermott, D

Andreas Johnsson, LW

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, C

Jeremy Bracco, RW

Carl Grundstrom, LW

 

The Sabres, according to me

Eichel

Dahlin

Mittelstadt

Reinhart

Ristolainen

Thompson

Nylander

Guhle

Asplund

Davidsson

 

How do we stack up?

Top 5, really well. I think Toronto's next 5 smoke us though. Can definitely change based on the type of seasons our bottom 5 have in the AHL or whatever league they end up in. 

And looking at this ranking just makes Nylander so heartbreaking. If he could even come close to matching his draft status, we look so much better. 

[LGR4GM]

Now just imagine that we use all 3 first round picks we have in 2019. Would certainly close that gap if not eliminate it if the Sabres can draft well. 

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Now just imagine that we use all 3 first round picks we have in 2019. Would certainly close that gap if not eliminate it if the Sabres can draft well. 

The three picks next year will not necessarily be "best player available."  If we keep them, I expect JBot will be selecting players to fill specific holes on the team.

[WildCard]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Now just imagine that we use all 3 first round picks we have in 2019. Would certainly close that gap if not eliminate it if the Sabres can draft well. 

 

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

The three picks next year will not necessarily be "best player available."  If we keep them, I expect JBot will be selecting players to fill specific holes on the team.

I don't think we have specific holes that are any more glaring than the rest right now. I would bet this is the perfect year to go bpa

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

The three picks next year will not necessarily be "best player available."  If we keep them, I expect JBot will be selecting players to fill specific holes on the team.

Then he is an idiot. The team needs: Top 6 forwards and Top 4 Defenders.  So he should take the best player available because I can guarantee it fills a Sabres need. 

[Doohicksie]

Eh.  We'll see.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

 

I don't think we have specific holes that are any more glaring than the rest right now. I would bet this is the perfect year to go bpa

That will be determined by their play this year more than anything. 

Speed and talent seen to be the top 2 things looking at it right now. But that could change come the end of season.

Using those picks or trading some could also be a varying status between now and then. For those who think we could make the playoffs (or push for them) this means possibly 3 picks in the back half of the 1st round....then BPA would seem to be a smart bet and trading at least one of them for a  player who can fill a need would also seem a good bet.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

The three picks next year will not necessarily be "best player available."  If we keep them, I expect JBot will be selecting players to fill specific holes on the team.

What will those holes 2-3 years out be?  Because that is when a non-top 10 pick will be making the squad in all likelihood.

This team still has an immediate need for a top 4 D-man.  But there are now a plethora of prospects that are that far off.

LW went from a serious weekness to a potential strength, especially if Olafsson & Nylander can actually play at this level.

C now looks shallow if Eichel or Mittelstadt get injured.  Probably should draft for that &/or D unless there is a stud winger that they can't believe dropped to them.  Aka, going after the BPA.  ;)