2018 - 2019 Sabres Prospects

[Hoss]

10 hours ago, Derrico said:

I hate pay walls but this one is worth the subscription imo.  

“I hate paywalls” = “I hate that journalists need to be paid.”

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

“I hate paywalls” = “I hate that journalists need to be paid.”

No.  It means I don’t find it important enough in my life to spend money on it.

[SwampD]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

“I hate paywalls” = “I hate that journalists need to be paid.”

A lot of people think they should get their music for free, as well.

[WildCard]

13 hours ago, pi2000 said:

It's an article by Kris Baker... so basically just gushing over every prospect.

He is the Sabres version of Sal Capaccio

[LTS]

5 hours ago, Hoss said:

“I hate paywalls” = “I hate that journalists need to be paid.”

I could see that sentiment.  The problem is, in this subscription world we are migrating to, is that keeping track of all subscriptions is a pain in the butt.  Of course that's why it's a popular business model.  They want people to sign up and forget they have it and not use it.  I think it depends on WHY you hate paywalls more than just hating them.  In addition, I don't think that people hate that journalists need to be paid, I think they just hate the hassle of having to directly pay for it.  Unfortunately the "free rider" advertising supported model is failing miserably (well, unfortunate for those people), except for the data miners who use all those advertising views, etc. to build predictive analytics models of our lives.

3 hours ago, Weave said:

No.  It means I don’t find it important enough in my life to spend money on it.

There's a difference in saying you hate a paywall and not finding it f value, I think.  If you don't find it important enough to spend money on it you probably don't find it important enough to hate either.  I mean, why waste energy hating something that has low importance to you?

 

[Sabel79]

7 minutes ago, LTS said:

Unfortunately the "free rider" advertising supported model is failing miserably (well, unfortunate for those people), except for the data miners who use all those advertising views, etc. to build predictive analytics models of our lives.

 

This is important to remember.  If it's free, you are the product.

[WildCard]

11 minutes ago, LTS said:

I could see that sentiment.  The problem is, in this subscription world we are migrating to, is that keeping track of all subscriptions is a pain in the butt.  Of course that's why it's a popular business model.  They want people to sign up and forget they have it and not use it.  I think it depends on WHY you hate paywalls more than just hating them.  In addition, I don't think that people hate that journalists need to be paid, I think they just hate the hassle of having to directly pay for it.  Unfortunately the "free rider" advertising supported model is failing miserably (well, unfortunate for those people), except for the data miners who use all those advertising views, etc. to build predictive analytics models of our lives.

Because I never find it worth it. I have paid subscriptions to things: Netflix, Spotify, Amazon...but I will not pay the Athletic to hear the same opinion I can hear anywhere else, or read the, IMO, sub-par breakdowns compared to what I can find here or do on my own. The only thing I would pay the Athletic for is breaking news, and for that I have twitter. Ultimately paywalls for any journalist article just aren't a unique enough product for me to pay for.

Edited August 8, 2018 by WildCard

[Sabel79]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Because I never find it worth it. I have paid subscriptions to things: Netflix, Spotify, Amazon...but I will not pay the Athletic to hear the same opinion I can hear anywhere else, or read the, IMO, sub-par breakdowns compared to what I can find here or do on my own. The only thing I would pay the Athletic for is breaking news, and for that I have twitter. Ultimately paywalls for any journalist article just aren't a unique enough product for me to pay for.

That's not what the Athletic is selling though.  It's long form journalism, the type which newspapers used to do but can't anymore.  If you're into it, then good.  If not, also good, don't buy it.  if you want breaking news, then yes, go absolutely anywhere else.  

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Because I never find it worth it. I have paid subscriptions to things: Netflix, Spotify, Amazon...but I will not pay the Athletic to hear the same opinion I can hear anywhere else, or read the, IMO, sub-par breakdowns compared to what I can find here or do on my own. The only thing I would pay the Athletic for is breaking news, and for that I have twitter. Ultimately paywalls for any journalist article just aren't a unique enough product for me to pay for.

Athletic isnt about breaking news or hot take opinions. It’s about insightful analysis and good writing.

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Athletic isnt about breaking news or hot take opinions. It’s about insightful analysis and good writing.

7 minutes ago, Sabel79 said:

That's not what the Athletic is selling though.  It's long form journalism, the type which newspapers used to do but can't anymore.  If you're into it, then good.  If not, also good, don't buy it.  if you want breaking news, then yes, go absolutely anywhere else.  

I know that, I get what their product is, that's why I won't buy it. If someone else finds it worth it I'm not going to rag on them, but I personally don't

[dudacek]

59 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I know that, I get what their product is, that's why I won't buy it. If someone else finds it worth it I'm not going to rag on them, but I personally don't

Can’t even interest you in Craig Custance’s comparison of the Sabres roster to the Caps? Ryan Stimson’s examination of how Jack can improve his transition game? Vogl’s 30-minute sitdown this morning with Kim Pegula? ?

 

[WildCard]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Can’t even interest you in Craig Custance’s comparison of the Sabres roster to the Caps? Ryan Stimson’s examination of how Jack can improve his transition game? Vogl’s 30-minute sitdown this morning with Kim Pegula? ?

 

Ah now I see...how long have you been working there? ?

[Weave]

Wildcard, you and I are on the same page.  I don’t value it enough to pay for it.  If it were free, would I read the articles?  Sure, sometimes.  But I get all the info I need (and want, really) now.  I’m not interested in paying for more.

Or maybe I just hate journalists getting paid. *eyeroll*

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

13 minutes ago, Weave said:

Wildcard, you and I are on the same page.  I don’t value it enough to pay for it.  If it were free, would I read the articles?  Sure, sometimes.  But I get all the info I need (and want, really) now.  I’m not interested in paying for more.

Or maybe I just hate journalists getting paid. *eyeroll*

Or maybe limit you to like 8 articles / month and then you have to subscribe after that.....if you want more access you pay.

[nfreeman]

FWIW, I don’t subscribe to much online print content, but IMHO the Athletic offers the best professionally-produced Sabres and Bills content available anywhere. 

[dudacek]

And because Pi don’t trust Baker, here’s Pronman’s take on Laaksonen at WJC camp.

Oskari Laaksonen, D, Buffalo: When I watched Laaksonen in February and April, I was impressed. And during the past few weeks, I came away with a positive impression again. He’s a skilled puck-moving defenseman who tries to create chances every shift. I don’t love his decision making and sometimes he takes bad risks, but you take some bad with a lot of good. Laaksonen skates decent and defends OK. His calling card is his offensive creativity.

[Derrico]

A lot of people rushed to judge this draft as a poor one for JBotts immediately after the draft.  I've been quite impressed with what I've read and seen from some of our later round picks so far.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 6/24/2018 at 10:37 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

With the Fasching trade, the Pilut signing and the draft, who are our top prospects? I’m going to stick to players 23 and under with limited to no NHL games. I try to balance age, upside and time until NHL impact.

 

1) Dahlin

2) Mittelstadt

3) Guhle

4) Pilut

5) Olofsson

6) Asplund

7) Davidsson

? Nylander

9) Pu

10) Borgen

11) Smith

12) Samuelsson

13) Johansson

14) UPL

15) Hickey

16) Baptiste

17) Bailey

18) Weissbach

19) Fitzgerald

20) Pekar

21) Bryson

22) Oglevie

23) Laaksonen

24) Malone

25) Cornel

 

O’Regan and Ullmark are aged out of this list

New rankings:  With development camp and the World Jr show case in rearview mirror and the prospect tournament coming up in 4 weeks , I thought it would be a good time to update the rankings.  

1) Dahlin (old ranking 1)

2) Mittelstadt (2)

3) Guhle (3) - It will be interesting to see if he gets a legit shot at the NHL roster.  

4) Thompson (NA) - acquired in the ROR deal, the 26th overall pick in 2016, earned 41 games in Stl last season.  Could win a top RW job with us this fall.

5) Nylander (8) - up 3, not because of anything he did, but my re-thinking of his ceiling and likeihood to be recalled this season as compared with the players new to NA just behind him.

6) Asplund (6) -

7) Olofsson (5) - moves on LW have made extremely unlikely he’ll get a look in camp for the NHL roster.  Likely needs time in Roch to acclimate.

8.) Pilut (4) - The SHL’s top D last season at 22.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets an early callup.

9) Davidsson (7) - 2nd rd pick developing nicely and set for another year in Sweden, but I don’t think he has the O upside of the 3 other Swedes forwards ahead of him

10) Borgen (10) - Reminds me of McCabe w similar upside.

11) Samuelsson (12) - He had a solid show case and shows a simple, physical game with some O.  He doesn’t skate as well as or have the O upside of the 3 D ahead of him.  He is also the farthest away from the NHL of the top 4 D prospects as he is just beginning his college career.  

12) Smith (11) - Jbot’s moves seem to mean another year the AHL.  If he stays healthy, he’ll be an early callup.

13) Baptiste (16) - I’ve moved him up because he seems to be on the verge of being a full time NHL player and I think he has a real chance of getting the 4th line RW spot.  Since he has to clear waivers to go back down, this just might give him an edge in camp over someone like Thompson who doesn’t need to clear waivers and needs to also physically mature.

14) UPL (14) - Change to Sudbury a huge positive for his development. Still probably 3 years away from Buffalo.

15) Hickey (15) - college vet signed here following Fasching trade.  Has speed and some skill.  3rd BU teammate of Jacks’s currently in our organization.

16) Weissbach (18) - Had a great freshman year at Wis.  Reading an article om the net convinced me that I had him to low.

17) Laaksonen (23) - Showed some high level flashes at the showcase.  Looks like some real potential here.

18) Oglevie (22) - similar quality prospect to guys like Erod, Smith, O’Regan, Sheary etc... Could jump up this board if college scoring ability translates to the pros.

19) Bailey (16) - Not sure if there is place for him here anymore.

20) Pekar (20) - Star of D camp for his personality, hits, some O, and all around being a pest.  Our Marchand someday? Or a slightly better Keleta?

21) Bryson (21) - College D with potential, but still years away.  Small player but has better college numbers then Hickey/

22) Fitzgerald (22) - Already 21, but management left him in college for his senior year.

23) Johansson (23) - re-signing Wilcox and signing Wedgewood likely means a return to the ECHL for Johansson dropping his status.

24) Malone (24) - if he continues to improve, he’ll likely earn a bottom 6 recall and could easily improve his status

25) Cornel (25) - Hard to get PT in Rochester with so many better prospects ahead of him.

 

Edited August 10, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

I’m still not entirely sure how you weigh your criteria, but I will reiterate the Sabres rate Samuelsson and UPL higher than you do. 

Samuelsson isn’t a sexy pick, but his offence and skating are better than he’s been getting credit for and his size and decision-making are excellent. He has an NHL body already and every coach he has ends up leaning on him in a shutdown role. Players like Nylander have a higher upside, but if this list was weighted towards a player’s floor - certainty to be a top-4 D/top 9 forward - Samuelsson would be battling Asplund for 3rd on the list.

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m still not entirely sure how you weigh your criteria, but I will reiterate the Sabres rate Samuelsson and UPL higher than you do. 

Samuelsson isn’t a sexy pick, but his offence and skating are better than he’s been getting credit for and his size and decision-making are excellent. He has an NHL body already and every coach he has ends up leaning on him in a shutdown role. Players like Nylander have a higher upside, but if this list was weighted towards a player’s floor - certainty to be a top-4 D/top 9 forward - Samuelsson would be battling Asplund for 3rd on the list.

I look at upside, likelihood of playing in the NHL and when the player should arrive.  

Asplund is 6th, not 3rd.  I think Samuelsson right now is the 4th or 5th best D prospect in the organization.  His upside is top 4 but more likely a physical 3rd pairing guy.  The guys in front of him have all show they can contribute at a higher level of hockey then Samuelsson. That isn’t a slight on Samuelsson, but until Samuelsson proves he can contribute at both ends in college and then the AHL, he’ll remain behind some other D in the organization.  

[Derrico]

36 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m still not entirely sure how you weigh your criteria, but I will reiterate the Sabres rate Samuelsson and UPL higher than you do. 

Samuelsson isn’t a sexy pick, but his offence and skating are better than he’s been getting credit for and his size and decision-making are excellent. He has an NHL body already and every coach he has ends up leaning on him in a shutdown role. Players like Nylander have a higher upside, but if this list was weighted towards a player’s floor - certainty to be a top-4 D/top 9 forward - Samuelsson would be battling Asplund for 3rd on the list.

Agree with this.  I thought those two (particularly Samuelsson) is way too low on this list.

Also, how does Pekar not move up your rankings after Sabres development camp?  He was one of the top 5 guys there most of the week and for sure a top 5 player in the 3 on 3 tourney IMO.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Derrico

[Thorner]

Sounds fun, here's my ranking of the top 15:

1) Dahlin

2) Mittelstadt

3) Nylander

4) Thompson

5) Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

6) Guhle

7) Samuelsson

8) Olofsson

9) Davidsson 

10) Asplund

11) Pilut

12) Pekar

13) Borgen

14) Laaksonen

15) Smith 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I look at upside, likelihood of playing in the NHL and when the player should arrive.  

Asplund is 6th, not 3rd.  I think Samuelsson right now is the 4th or 5th best D prospect in the organization.  His upside is top 4 but more likely a physical 3rd pairing guy.  The guys in front of him have all show they can contribute at a higher level of hockey then Samuelsson. That isn’t a slight on Samuelsson, but until Samuelsson proves he can contribute at both ends in college and then the AHL, he’ll remain behind some other D in the organization.  

I think you misread me on Asplund: it’s my opinion that he and Samuelsson have the third-highest floors; others have more upside, but those two are both going to play for sure.

I think Samuelsson is being downgraded (and not just by you) because little fast guys are in vogue and he is neither. But what he is is a shutdown defender who could - if he develops to his upside - eventually be Dahlin’s partner on our pair that faces other team’s top lines. 

He’s not a slug. He was the captain and second-highest scoring defenceman on the USNDP team, despite not padding his stats on the PP - 31 points in 58 games. Will Borgen has never put up more than 15 points in the USHL or college. In four years of junior, Brendan Guhle’s best season was 33 points. Prior to last season Lawrence Pilut has never put up more than 21 points in a season.

Hes not going to score points in the NHL, but neither will he be Josh Gorges, toting the puck like a live grenade. If you watch his highlights, he closes his gaps very well and moves the puck up-ice smartly. He’s also a nasty 6’4” 220 pounds at 18; he has a reach and strength none of the others can match. He works hard, and with an edge, but what sets him apart from the Justin Falks of the world are his hockey smarts and the fact he is skilled enough to take advantage.

There’s still room in the NHL for defencemen who you trust against the other team’s big guns. The Sabres have had their share over the years - Regehr, Tallinder, Lydman, McKee, Warrener, Smehlik, Ramsey, maybe Scandella. I think he pretty safely slots somewhere in that spectrum.

Ill say it again, the Sabres used the 32nd pick in the draft on him. How many players that you have ranked ahead of him would garner that type of return in a trade?

I’d say the answer is somewhere between 2 and 7.

Edited August 9, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

If he turns into a Scandella great.  I'd be thrilled.  I think we'll get a better feel when he plays in college this fall.  He is definitely physical and a shutdown guy, but if he doesn’t have the wheels to skate with the better players he becomes very limited.  In the USHL his size and reach was a major advantage, but most USHL guys are never going to play in the NHL.  In college he'll compete against older players and faster players overall.  If he continues to dominate I'll reconsider.

I understand your argument about floors, but even that is speculative.  Everyone after the draft would have said at worst that Nylander would become a top 9 player.  Another bad season and he floor will be a return to Sweden.

Edited August 10, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

I think you hit the nut of our disagreement here: It’s not like Samuelsson hasn’t already been exposed to the best in the world from his age group. He is the guy who the USNDP used against the other team’s best players and he has excelled. 

The bulk of these guys are no more expert than you and I, but this thread is an interesting read:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/ld-mattias-samuelsson-usntdp-ushl-2018-32nd-buf.2202311/

Edited August 9, 2018 by dudacek