2018 - 2019 Sabres Prospects

[jsb]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not all 19yr old kids are driven. I also noted in my response his work ethic. Further I can name a dozen players that were hard workers and nothing more at the NHL level. Great, you worked hard but still can't produce, fantastic. You need both, the question is will Nylander's mental maturity grow so he does have that compete. No idea but I am not throwing him out after 2 mediocre seasons. 

I'm with you on this one, not that he doesn't have a lot to prove this year but it does look like he's improved his physical fitness and I'm not going to dismiss the fact that with all the Swedish players moving to Rochester apparently next year, that he will feel more comfortable there which translates into wanting to prove to his mates that he belongs. I'm hoping for a big improvement year from him. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I completely disagree with your guys' takes of people's problem with Nylander.

His numbers by themselves are underwhelming, but we fully understand that he should have gone back to juniors and was set back because of it. 

None of those comparables have had a single work-ethic issue raised, where it's been talked about by coaches for the last two years with Alex, and observed by fans who payed to watch him dozens and dozens of times more than we ever have. And it hasn't been fixed - he was healthy scratched for his team's playoff games because of it the most recent hockey sample size we have for him. 

If you don't have the most important aspect for getting from his level to the next level, and the skill/base stats underneath it are as trash as Nylander's are, why should any fan have any faith? Why not have more faith in Cliff Pu, who is known for being a non-stop high-energy motor on the ice who will MAKE the coaches play him with his play?

It really isn't about the numbers at all with Alex, other than the numbers don't SAVE him from a flaw that he hasn't come close to overcoming yet.

 

Dont disagree with the point of this, but just to clarify, Nylander was not healthy scratched for playoff games. He played in all three games but was largely invisible and got 4th line ice time. It was Hudson Fasching who was scratched.

It’s worth noting that Justin Bailey looked pretty good in that series, while Brendan Guhle and Linus Ullmark were flat out bad.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, jsb said:

I'm with you on this one, not that he doesn't have a lot to prove this year but it does look like he's improved his physical fitness and I'm not going to dismiss the fact that with all the Swedish players moving to Rochester apparently next year, that he will feel more comfortable there which translates into wanting to prove to his mates that he belongs. I'm hoping for a big improvement year from him. 

That's my hope but at the same time I recognize that he might fall flat again and that just isn't acceptable this year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's my hope but at the same time I recognize that he might fall flat again and that just isn't acceptable this year. 

I agree, this might not be make or break, but he must make significant progress.

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

None of those comparables have had a single work-ethic issue raised, where it's been talked about by coaches for the last two years with Alex.

If you don't have the most important aspect for getting from his level to the next level, and the skill/base stats underneath it are as trash as Nylander's are, why should any fan have any faith? 

Here’s my take on Nylander: I don’t have faith, but I do still have some hope. 

I base my hope on two things:

Work ethic was never an issue I saw cited about Alex before he was drafted. In his draft year, he put up 75 points in 57 games, which is impressive enough on its own, but what I never see mentioned is the fact he had 6 goals and 6 assists and 6 playoff games that year. He also scored 11 points in 7 games at the World U18s and added 9 points in 7 games at the U20s. During the big games, he stepped up and produced. He followed it up with 12 points in 7 WJC games the following year.

Lack of confidence can look exactly like lack of work ethic, so can injury, especially with a guy whose game is essentially that of a thinker and a perimeter puck mover. We know Nylander was teenager away from home in a bad environment as a rookie. We know he was nursing some kind of lower body injury for much of last year. I was pleasantly surprised by Nylander’s brief stint in Buffalo at the end of last year. He didn’t blow me away, but he could skate and think at an NHL level, and he was more involved than I expected him to be.

I have no faith in Alex because he hasn’t given much reason for faith. For much of the past two seasons - really everything except the the last two months of this year - he hasn’t looked good enough for the AHL and that’s a bad sign for a top 10 draft pick. 

I have hope because lots of players have not been good enough for the AHL at 18 yet still been good NHL players, and there have been extenuating circumstances around his play. As far as I’m concerned, the circumstances have been removed for this year. He knows the AHL, he’s bulked up, and the environment is a good one. 

Tyler Ennis had 23 goals and 65 points as a 20-year-old AHLer. Jason Pominville had 13 and 34. Nylander needs to put up about 20 and 50 this year to keep my hope alive.

Edited July 23, 2018 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

Here’s my take on Nylander: I don’t have faith, but I do still have some hope. 

I base my hope on two things:

Work ethic was never an issue I saw cited about Alex before he was drafted. In his draft year, he put up 75 points in 57 games, which is impressive enough on its own, but what I never see mentioned is the fact he had 6 goals and 6 assists and 6 playoff games that year. He also scored 11 points in 7 games at the World U18s and added 9 points in 7 games at the U20s. During the big games, he stepped up and produced. He followed it up with 12 points in 7 WJC games the following year.

Lack of confidence can look exactly like lack of work ethic, so can injury, especially with a guy whose game is essentially that of a thinker and a perimeter puck mover. We know Nylander was teenager away from home in a bad environment as a rookie. We know he was nursing some kind of lower body injury for much of last year. I was pleasantly surprised by Nylander’s brief stint in Buffalo at the end of last year. He didn’t blow me away, but he could skate and think at an NHL level, and he was more involved than I expected him to be.

I have no faith in Alex because he hasn’t given much reason for faith. For much of the past two seasons - really everything except the the last two months of this year - he hasn’t looked good enough for the AHL and that’s a bad sign for a top 10 draft pick. 

I have hope because lots of players have not been good enough for the AHL at 18 yet still been good NHL players, and there have been extenuating circumstances around his play. As far as I’m concerned, the circumstances have been removed for this year. He knows the AHL, he’s bulked up, and the environment is a good one. 

Tyler Ennis had 23 goals and 65 points as a 20-year-old AHLer. Jason Pominville had 13 and 34. Nylander needs to put up about 20 and 50 this year to keep my hope alive.

He was the youngest player in the AHL when he was 18 and among the youngest when he played last year partially injured. It isn't a bad sign at all. If he was a true CHL player who wouldn't have been AHL eligible until literally this upcoming season. 

I do see the rest of your argument, I am just commenting that that particular sentence I disagree with. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Alex Nylander outproduced Jason Pominville at 19 compared to Pommers at 20 in the AHL. Ennis is probably a good comparable but again, even if he doesn't hit 50 points he needs to up his ppg. Ennis was at .94ppg at 20. Pommers was at 0.47. Nylander was at .53ppg last season. I would like to see him play all year in the AHL and see his ppg between .8 and 1 for me to believe. 

Keep in mind Pommers played another 2 full season in the AHL, not arriving in Buffalo until he was 22. We just need to see an increase in that .53ppg for hope to be kept alive. The bigger increase I mention above would restore full faith but even if he goes from .53 to .65 I would have faith he is trending in the right direction. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by LGR4GM

[pi2000]

Don't care about his PPG.   Only care about his work ethic and what the coaches are saying about him.     If his PPG improves significantly but he's still a lazy bum, then I don't want him anywhere near this big club.     

[LGR4GM]

Thanks Ted. 

2 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Don't care about his PPG.   Only care about his work ethic and what the coaches are saying about him.     If his PPG improves significantly but he's still a lazy bum, then I don't want him anywhere near this big club.     

 

[pi2000]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Thanks Ted. 

 

You're welcome, Phil.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

You're welcome, Phil.

My name's Kent... 

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My name's Kent... 

Dorfman?

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Dorfman?

Ask Taro, he knows

[3putt]

Now that exchange was funny.  

[Hoss]

Scott Wheeler of the Athletic did a top 50 drafted NHL prospects list.

http://bit.ly/2NRx7DF

Sabres have number one and four (surprise surprise) but don’t have another name on the list. He goes on to mention 70 “other” prospects of interest and the only name we have there is Alex Nylander. 

One team has zero prospects on the list (New Jersey). 16 teams have one. Nine have two. Four have three and one has four (Vancouver).

In our division: Boston (1), Buffalo (2), Carolina (3), Detroit (1), Florida (2), Montreal (1), Ottawa (2), Tampa (1), Toronto (1).

 

Dahlin (1) and Mittelstadt (4) combine for 5 spots in the ranking. Vancouver has the next lowest combination with Elias Pettersson (2) and Quinn Hughes (8) combine for 10. Carolina has 3 (Andrei Svechnikov) and 9 (Martin Necas).

Edited July 27, 2018 by Hoss

[dudacek]

It was interesting that guys like Guhle, Samuelsson, Davidsson and Asplund aren’t even sniffing his top 100. He talked about the list being heavily weighted toward top-end upside, so perhaps it’s as simple as that.

Otherwise, that was a nice article to wake up to. He ranked Dahlin in a tier by himself and Casey as part of a three-person second tier with Svechnikov and Pettersson.

His Dahlin take:

Rasmus Dahlin, LHD, 18 (Buffalo Sabres — 1st overall, 2018)

This wasn’t up for debate. As good as the trio of players who follow him on this list really are, I believe Dahlin has the ability to become the best defenceman in the world, taking the mantle from Erik Karlsson in the process. I don’t love the term ‘generational talent’ but that would make him one. Dahlin can break a game open offensively as a shooter, passer, and handler, and he can impact it at a high level defensively (a newer development) with his gap control and an emerging physical game. Dahlin has some of the best puck skills I’ve ever seen for a player his age, let alone a defenceman. His game will take him as far as he wants it to. For more on what makes Dahlin so special, read my stylistic breakdown of his game

and Mittlestadt:

Casey Mittelstadt, C, 19 (Buffalo Sabres — 8th overall, 2017)

Casey Mittelstadt is that rare mix of already-incredibly-talented and yet still super, super raw. I rarely leave a viewing in awe of young players anymore, but I remember feeling that way after watching Mittelstadt play in the 2016-2017 All-American Prospects Game at the start of his draft year. He was, in a game with players like Kailer Yamamoto and Jason Robertson, peerless. And he has just exploded ever since. Today, he’s more of a playmaker than a passer. There are spurts in games where he looks like he can create scoring chances at will and we got a brief taste of that in his end-of-year stint with the Sabres. He’s going to be a terror at the NHL level within a year or two.

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It was interesting that guys like Guhle, Samuelsson, Davidsson and Asplund aren’t even sniffing his top 100. He talked about the list being heavily weighted toward top-end upside, so perhaps it’s as simple as that.

Otherwise, that was a nice article to wake up to. He ranked Dahlin in a tier by himself and Casey as part of a three-person second tier with Svechnikov and Pettersson.

What's interesting is that Jordan Kyrou is on that list but Tage Thompson is not. 

[dudacek]

Tage played 40ish games last year and would not have qualified.

[LGR4GM]

46 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Tage played 40ish games last year and would not have qualified.

Maybe but the author's exclusion criteria is somewhat vague.

Quote

• Players approaching that age cutoff who spent the bulk of last season in the NHL, including young talents like Sonny Milano and Travis Sanheim, were also excluded.
• Some other players (primarily those closer to the 23-year-old cutoff) who finished the year in the NHL and look poised to return this fall, such as the Maple Leafs’ Travis Dermott and Kasperi Kapanen, were also arbitrarily excluded.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

How many players on his list weren’t 1st rd picks over the last 2-3 years.  My guess is nearly zero.  

Duda, all the guys you mentioned were 2nd rd picks.  I doubt Wheeler gave it that much thought.

Edited July 27, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Hoss]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Maybe but the author's exclusion criteria is somewhat vague.

 

Not claiming TT2.0 would be on there but I think it’s pretty clear he wouldn’t qualify based on the criteria and examples given.

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How many players on his list weren’t 1st rd picks over the last 2-3 years.  My guess is nearly zero.  

Duda, all the guys you mentioned were 2nd rd picks.  I doubt Wheeler gave it that much thought.

Reading through the comments, he addresses Guhle directly: fine player, nothing special, projects 3rd pair.

He says the list is his personal opinion and he’s watched all the players ranked extensively. 

He was asked multiple times about Thompson but he didn’t respond.

[Hoss]

25 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How many players on his list weren’t 1st rd picks over the last 2-3 years.  My guess is nearly zero.  

Duda, all the guys you mentioned were 2nd rd picks.  I doubt Wheeler gave it that much thought.

11 (Kaprizov) was a 5th round pick in 2015.

31 (Abramov) was a 3rd round pick in 2016.

34 (Fox) was a 3rd round pick in 2016.

48 (Sorokin) was a 3rd round pick in 2014.

Those are the only non-1st/2nd rounders.

[LGR4GM]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Reading through the comments, he addresses Guhle directly: fine player, nothing special, projects 3rd pair.

He says the list is his personal opinion and he’s watched all the players ranked extensively. 

Well if he has watched Guhle, I am not sure how he comes out with 3rd pairing guy. Looks like a solid 2nd pairing guy to me with his skating, size, and passing. 

[jsb]

He's entitled to his opinion, it doesn't mean that he or you are wrong in your assessments.