2018 - 2019 Sabres Prospects

[WildCard]

So this is Nylander's 3rd season in the AHL. 

1st: .43 ppg

2nd: .53 ppg

3rd: .71 ppg

Not sure I can find another comparable, but take that for what it's worth. I don't think there's any doubt he's either on the Sabres next season, or moved in the offseason at this point

[WildCard]

10 minutes ago, Robviously said:

Sounds like UPL had a stellar WJC exhibition game last night against Canada. It’s been great to see him have a strong year after last season was so frustrating — and shows that development isn’t a straight line. After last year, UPL was struggling, most people were still down on the Laaksonen pick, and it didn’t seem like we’d be signing Borgen. (And we didn’t even know who Pilut was.)

Then you have guys like Guhle, Asplund, and Nylander that need more time in the AHL than we were hoping they would. 

Anyways, I guess we’ll see. And the WJC is quietly one of my favorite parts of the Holidays so excited to finally get a better look at some of these guys. 

To expand on your post

Asplund: 1-8-9 in 30gp

O'Reagan: 10-7-17  in 30gp

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, WildCard said:

So this is Nylander's 3rd season in the AHL. 

1st: .43 ppg

2nd: .53 ppg

3rd: .71 ppg

Not sure I can find another comparable, but take that for what it's worth. I don't think there's any doubt he's either on the Sabres next season, or moved in the offseason at this point

I can’t remember where I read it, but if a player is not a pt a game player in the AHL by the time he’s 20, it’s unlikely he’ll ever be more then a depth player in the NHL.  Nylander’s improvement is great, but it’s another example of TM’s incompetence as a talent evaluator.  The 2016 draft that once looked so promising is beginning to circle the drain. On the positive side Pu helped get us Skinner, but neither Asplund or Nylander look any better then 3rd line players and no one else looks to have an NHL future.  Fail!  

[dudacek]

I think that has to be older than 20, since that’s the rookie AHL year for most junior players and most college players start even later.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think that has to be older than 20, since that’s the rookie AHL year for most junior players and most college players start even later.

 

I think I quoted the research before in this thread.  I was surprised as well by the age.  I’ll find it and repost it.

[dudacek]

Interesting. I guess it depends on how you define “depth”player.

I’m thinking Rodrigues/Larsson, but maybe they’re more thinking Stafford-level?

[Robviously]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think I quoted the research before in this thread.  I was surprised as well by the age.  I’ll find it and repost it.

I really doubt it’s 20 since most players don’t arrive there until they’re 20. And a quick check of Jason Pominville’s stats showed he had 34 points in 73 games as a 20yo in Rochester. 

I might believe 21 or 22. But either way, we’re way too down on Nylander because we rushed him to the AHL before we should have and he struggled as a teenager and because we’re comparing him to his brother. 

[dudacek]

Pominville got 34 as a 20-year-old AHLer, but guys like Roy and Briere and Vanek were around point-a-game as rookies.

[Robviously]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Pominville got 34 as a 20-year-old AHLer, but guys like Roy and Briere and Vanek were around point-a-game as rookies.

So did Luke Adam.

Obviously you’d want every 20 year old in the AHL to have a PPG rate (and you’d expect nothing less from a future star like Briere or Vanek) but it’s not decisive and not everyone is the same. This is literally the point of “development isn’t a straight line.” Like who the hell was Lawrence Pilut as a 20 year old?

 

[Robviously]

Article about Samuelsson heading into the WJC:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/24/buffalo-sabres-prospects-mattias-samuelsson-western-michigan/

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Robviously said:

So did Luke Adam.

Obviously you’d want every 20 year old in the AHL to have a PPG rate (and you’d expect nothing less from a future star like Briere or Vanek) but it’s not decisive and not everyone is the same. This is literally the point of “development isn’t a straight line.” Like who the hell was Lawrence Pilut as a 20 year old?

 

I wasn’t disagreeing with you. Actually wrote my post before I saw yours. 

My experience is that it takes 3-5 years after the draft for most players to show whether they’re  NHLers and 3-4 NHL seasons to show what kind of NHLer they are. And early “success” (Myers, Ennis) and early “failure” (Pominville, Reinhart) doesn’t necessarily tell the story.

So I’m very interested in GA’s study.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Robviously said:

Article about Samuelsson heading into the WJC:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/24/buffalo-sabres-prospects-mattias-samuelsson-western-michigan/

Looking forward to see what he does. I’ve always been higher on this kid than most. Upside this year’s Bogo.

@GASabresIUFAN and @LGR4GM note: his coach former NHL coach Andy Murray talks about his “Good mobility”. Playing hard shutdown minutes as an 18-year-old.

[inkman]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I can’t remember where I read it, but if a player is not a pt a game player in the AHL by the time he’s 20, it’s unlikely he’ll ever be more then a depth player in the NHL.  Nylander’s improvement is great, but it’s another example of TM’s incompetence as a talent evaluator.  The 2016 draft that once looked so promising is beginning to circle the drain. On the positive side Pu helped get us Skinner, but neither Asplund or Nylander look any better then 3rd line players and no one else looks to have an NHL future.  Fail!  

If a team gets 2 NHL players per draft, the GM is doing well.  

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, Robviously said:

I really doubt it’s 20 since most players don’t arrive there until they’re 20. And a quick check of Jason Pominville’s stats showed he had 34 points in 73 games as a 20yo in Rochester. 

I might believe 21 or 22. But either way, we’re way too down on Nylander because we rushed him to the AHL before we should have and he struggled as a teenager and because we’re comparing him to his brother. 

Alex could get called up and outscore his brother for a few games. I would love to rub that in Leafs fans faces.

I haven't given up on him yet, he may fit in better at the NHL level. He probably needs to be on the top 2 lines to showcase his skills. He may be unsuitable for the 3rd or 4th lines in order to crack a lineup.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

If a team gets 2 NHL players per draft, the GM is doing well.  

I used to think that as well. But the math doesn’t support that idea any longer.

There are 710+ NHL players on 31 teams.  The vast majority were drafted.  However if GM’s average 2 a year that is only 20 players per team over a decade.  According to Quant Hockey 50% of all NHL players last 100 games or less for their careers, that means if even if teams produce 20 players over a decade, that half won't make much of an impact. Many others will be bottom 6 or 2rd pairing type players.  You simply can’t build a team with only 2 players a year.

I think modern GMs need 3 at a minimum; 4 would be better.

 

 

[dudacek]

I’m wondering if Nylander has enough in common with Reinhart (hockey sense, passing) to be effective with Jack and Jeff.

[inkman]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m wondering if Nylander has enough in common with Reinhart (hockey sense, passing) to be effective with Jack and Jeff.

I'm hoping he can get some time with Casey and see if they can develop some chemistry. Then it becomes a game of ring around the Rosie with Sheary. Connor needs to be on a scoring line to be effective otherwise he just flails around the ice without much of an impact. 

[tom webster]

In days gone by, when you had two scoring lines, a checking line and an energy line guys like Sheary would move around a lot. Never good enough to stick top six, but capable of exploding with proper linemates.

Vinny Prospal comes to mind.

Now with teams going with more balanced lines, a guy like Sheary can stick around longer bouncing along lines as needed

[GASabresIUFAN]

I thought Samuelsson’s skating looked mediocre at best in game 1 of the World Jrs.  Just looked slow.

[Thorner]

Brett Murray. Huge grain of salt here as he's an overager, but he's having a pretty great season in the USHL with 39 points in 29 games. He's also still only 20. Kris Baker thinks he could be a late bloomer potentially (granted, I'm not sure he's met a Sabres prospect he doesn't like). 

Regardless, I'm glad we have his rights until at least June 2020, and probably longer with his re-entering college next season. You never know. 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Thorny

[Brawndo]

Botterill said that UPL will turn pro next season. 

Cincinnati or Rochester with the former being most likely 

[pi2000]

28 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Botterill said that UPL will turn pro next season. 

Cincinnati or Rochester with the former being most likely 

Or Europe

[PalmTreeMafia]

On 12/24/2018 at 3:22 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I used to think that as well. But the math doesn’t support that idea any longer.

There are 710+ NHL players on 31 teams.  The vast majority were drafted.  However if GM’s average 2 a year that is only 20 players per team over a decade.  According to Quant Hockey 50% of all NHL players last 100 games or less for their careers, that means if even if teams produce 20 players over a decade, that half won't make much of an impact. Many others will be bottom 6 or 2rd pairing type players.  You simply can’t build a team with only 2 players a year.

I think modern GMs need 3 at a minimum; 4 would be better.

 

 

This pretty much explains why the Buffalo Sabres are in their current predicament. From 2005-2011, the drafting was absolutely ATROCIOUS. And then since the drafting began during the playoff drought (2012-now), the quality and quantity has been better but still lacking:

2012: Girgensons, McCabe, Ullmark

2013: Ristolainen

2014: Reinhart, Olofsson?

2015: Eichel, Guhle?, Borgen?

2016: Nylander?, Asplund?

2017: Mittelstadt, Davidsson?, Luukkonen?, Laaksonen?

2018: Dahlin, Samuelsson?, Pekar?

So in the past 7 drafts, we've only added 8 players currently on the roster and an additional 10 who have a reasonable shot of making it someday. That's insufficient in terms of quantity. In terms of quality, I'd say we're drafting okay for goaltending and defense but not at forward...which may partly explain our current predicament. So far we've only found two top-six forwards (Eichel and Reinhart), and it took back-to-back tank seasons to obtain them at #2 overall each. Skinner certainly helps, but it's very important that Mittelstadt and Nylander aren't busts. Otherwise, it puts a lot of extra pressure on JB to fill out the second scoring line via trades, free agency, and draft picks outside the top 10 picks.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Or Europe

Unlikely.  He had him go to Sudbury to better monitor his development.  Why send him back to Europe.

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Unlikely.  He had him go to Sudbury to better monitor his development.  Why send him back to Europe.

I can't believe how many people haven't figured out Pi yet.  He's insinuating that the kid is gonna jump ship.