The avoidance of CHL players

[LGR4GM]

If it wasn't for a bias towards CHL players we could have come away with Jake Guentzel.  Pitt picked him up a few picks after Baptiste

You know the difference between Guentzal and Baptiste? Guentzal produced more than Baptiste which is the entire crux of this argument. We should have drafted Guentzal because he was a better player. Just like we should have drafted Cole Fonstad. Just like drafting Metaj makes sense. It isn't about the league it is about the underlying numbers that make later picks pan out. 

 

One note, Baptiste is significantly younger than Guentzal. Baptiste is almost 1 full year younger. If Baptiste is going to make it, this is probably the year. 

Edited June 25, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[apuszczalowski]

Low round players are a crap shoot anyway. Doesn't it make sense to have 4 years to decide if someone has the potential? After two years you still might not know but have to commit.

but it's not like you draft these players and they only get 2 year contracts, you still get the same amount of time with them, except that 2 of those years they are playing in the CHL instead of the AHL or another minor league. They can still evaluate the player there just like a European player staying there to play

[inkman]

Here's the problem. You are now assuming that outside of rounds 1 and 2 that CHL players are not as valuable as other leagues because of that extra time. That is exactly the type of thinking that doesn't get you Cliff Pu or Nic Baptiste.

Sure but neither of those players are difference makers. At this point they are both borderline NHLers.

[LGR4GM]

Just heard the Sabres AGM try to say that the CHL has less 19 to 20yr old players than the USHL. Also said the USHL plays faster. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[Eleven]

Just heard the Sabres AGM try to say that the CHL has less 19 to 20yr old players than the USHL. Also said the USHL plays faster. 

 

I really doubt this.

[LGR4GM]

Just heard the Sabres AGM try to say that the CHL has less 19 to 20yr old players than the USHL. Also said the USHL plays faster. 

 

 

I really doubt this.

I will find the audio.

Edited June 26, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[That Aud Smell]

Just heard the Sabres AGM try to say that the CHL has less 19 to 20yr old players than the USHL. Also said the USHL plays faster. 

 

I'm only recently becoming oriented to what the USHL is, frankly.

 

Don't a good number of USHL players move on to NCAA hockey when they're 18-20? And aren't the CHL players basically bound to their club until they're 20 years old (unless they can make an NHL roster)?

 

I'm unclear on how the USHL would have more 19 and 20 year old players than the CHL.

[Amerks8796]

I really doubt this.

If it is an older league, I’d believe it. A quick look at teams average ages on Eliteprospects and the USHL does appear to have a bit higher of an average age per team. It’s a very underrated league.

[LGR4GM]

At 5:04 they start to talk about it.

https://wgr550.radio.com/media/audio-channel/06-26-sabres-assistant-gm-randy-sexton-howard-and-jeremy 

"Because those players are geared almost exclusively to go to college, the speed and the pace is extremely high."  Hearing it again, I suppose he is not directly saying the USHL is faster but that was my first impression. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[That Aud Smell]

A quick look at teams average ages on Eliteprospects and the USHL does appear to have a bit higher of an average age per team. It’s a very underrated league.

 

Interesting.

[LTS]

I really doubt this.

 

Why?  In and around this entire discussion some of us have been throwing out that the Canadian style of play and development models are no longer holding up against the world.  Frankly I think Canada is going to see its contribution to the world of hockey decline over the next 5-15 years as they learn how the game has changed and update their thinking to adapt to it.  They will still have some top talent simply because of the number of Canadian children who play hockey.  Top to bottom, their numbers in the NHL will continue to decline.

 

The game is becoming much more the European model with far less big hits and much more speed and finesse.  There may be some elements of player control in this as well.

 

I believe 2015 was the first time Canadian born players no longer held the majority on NHL rosters.  In the past 4 seasons the makeup of the NHL has shifted with the Canadian born players in the league dropping by almost 5%.

Looking at some stats... https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/nationality-totals/nhl-players-2017-18-stats.html

 

Breakdown of player nationality percentage by year.

 

2017/2018

 

Canada - 45.3%

United States - 27.3%

Sweden - 9.9%

Russia - 4.0%

Finland - 4.3%

Czech - 3.8%

 

2016/2017

 

Canada - 45.9%

United States - 27.1%

Sweden - 9.3%

Russia - 4.3%

Finland - 4.0%

Czech - 3.9%

 

2015/2016

 

Canada - 49%

United States - 24.6%

Sweden - 8.6%

Russia - 4.1%

Finland - 3.9%

Czech - 3.9%

 

2014/2015

 

Canada - 50.8%

United States - 24.3%

Sweden - 7.8%

Czech - 4.0%

Russia - 3.6%

Finland - 3.6%

[LGR4GM]

Give me another 5 minutes... 

[LGR4GM]

almost there... 

What follows are the averages (using the team averages) for each league, USHL, OHL, WHL, and QMJHL. Heights are in centimeters. Weights in pounds. Age is expressed as AA or average age. QMJ=QMJHL

 

QMJ: 181.88cm / 179.056lbs / 18.717aa

 

OHL: 184.184cm / 183.9lbs / 18.612aa

 

WHL: 184.506cm / 185.364lbs / 18.964aa

 

USHL: 182.857cm / 178.824lbs / 18.692aa

So this statement is basically bu11$#it

WGR 550‏Verified account @WGR550 2h2 hours ago

More

Sexton - The USHL is a bit older of a league, it tends to be older than the Canadian Hockey league - the three major junior leagues there

[Eleven]

I will find the audio.

 

I don't doubt that it was said.  I doubt that it is correct.

Why?  In and around this entire discussion some of us have been throwing out that the Canadian style of play and development models are no longer holding up against the world.  Frankly I think Canada is going to see its contribution to the world of hockey decline over the next 5-15 years as they learn how the game has changed and update their thinking to adapt to it.  They will still have some top talent simply because of the number of Canadian children who play hockey.  Top to bottom, their numbers in the NHL will continue to decline.

 

[snip]

 

 

Because the USHL is, top-to-bottom, measurably worse than the CHL leagues.  Kids with star potential are *just starting* to think of the USHL as an option.  In my mind, USHL is somewhere between CHL and Junior A.

[LGR4GM]

I put the USHL on par with the QMJHL at this point as far as talent and such. That makes it a fine feeder league and I think it produces better results (players) than the Q but Sexton is full of ######. It took some rando with a computer 30 minutes to double check the math. Clearly I should work for the Sabres as at least I verify facts before running with them. 

Edited June 26, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[Amerks8796]

I put the USHL on par with the QMJHL at this point as far as talent and such. That makes it a fine feeder league and I think it produces better results (players) than the Q but Sexton is full of ######. It took some rando with a computer 30 minutes to double check the math. Clearly I should work for the Sabres as at least I verify facts before running with them.

I mean, who really cares in the end? I didn’t add it all up, just did an eye test on the average ages. The USHL has 5/17 teams with an average age of 19 or higher while the OHL has 2/20. It’s obvious the USNTDP is an outlier in terms of average age in that league. But it’s splitting hairs.

[That Aud Smell]

Is average age the way to confirm or dispute what Sexton said?

 

I'm asking.

[Amerks8796]

Is average age the way to confirm or dispute what Sexton said?

 

I'm asking.

It sounded like to me he was saying there are more 19 and 20 years olds overall in the USHL versus the CHL. And I’m sure they have access to more information internally than we do online.

[That Aud Smell]

It sounded like to me he was saying there are more 19 and 20 years olds overall in the USHL versus the CHL. And I’m sure they have access to more information internally than we do online.

 

Thanks.

 

My question, to Liger, I think remains: Is average age the way to determine whether Sexton was right to say that he USHL tends to have more 19 and 20 year olds?

 

I'm wondering whether (and, really, why) Sexton would say something like that, if it were demonstrably untrue.

[TrueBlueGED]

Thanks.

 

My question, to Liger, I think remains: Is average age the way to determine whether Sexton was right to say that he USHL tends to have more 19 and 20 year olds?

 

I'm wondering whether (and, really, why) Sexton would say something like that, if it were demonstrably untrue.

Median is probably a better way to go about it. As to why he'd say it if it's not true...people say things in interviews. Could have been a harmless slip up. Or it's possible that "b word" distorting reality... :p ;)

[LTS]

I don't doubt that it was said.  I doubt that it is correct.

 

Because the USHL is, top-to-bottom, measurably worse than the CHL leagues.  Kids with star potential are *just starting* to think of the USHL as an option.  In my mind, USHL is somewhere between CHL and Junior A.

 

Top to bottom it might be... for now.  The question is not just how do they compare now but also how are they trending?   

 

There is also a bit of a cross-over in these comparisons because not all CHL players are Canadian and not all USHL or other league players are comprised of that specific nationality.  

 

I'd just say that overall Canada and Canadian development programs (including CHL) are losing ground to other countries and leagues. 

 

Unfortunately Quanthockey.com does not have a breakdown by league, just by nationality.  

[dudacek]

After listening to the interview, I’d say this is a lot of scrutiny for an offhand comment.

The USHL has existed primarily as a college feeder league and doesn’t have many 16 or 17 year olds.

[LGR4GM]

I mean, who really cares in the end? I didn’t add it all up, just did an eye test on the average ages. The USHL has 5/17 teams with an average age of 19 or higher while the OHL has 2/20. It’s obvious the USNTDP is an outlier in terms of average age in that league. But it’s splitting hairs.

When the assistant GM is using that as part of his eval of potential draft picks criteria it matters. Whether it is a positive or a negative remains to be seen. 

After listening to the interview, I’d say this is a lot of scrutiny for an offhand comment.

The USHL has existed primarily as a college feeder league and doesn’t have many 16 or 17 year olds.

the CHL has very very few 16 year olds. 17 year olds are typically in their draft year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Jbot puts an emphasis on USHL/NCAA players and Euros, especially in the later rounds because he gets 4 years of development time vs 2. Seems perfectly reasonable. However only time will tell.

 

Also who cares what the average age is in Jrs. What matters is whether our farm system is producing good NHL players consistently. This hasn’t been the case for the last decade.

 

Fyi: from 2006-2015 we drafted 52 kids from the 3 to 7th rounds.

29 from the CHL - 25 busts

12 from US high schools - 10 busts

5 from the NCAA or USHL/NAHL only 1 bust

4 from Sweden also only 1 bust

2 from lower Canadian Juniors league - 2 busts

[Amerks8796]

Top to bottom it might be... for now. The question is not just how do they compare now but also how are they trending?

 

There is also a bit of a cross-over in these comparisons because not all CHL players are Canadian and not all USHL or other league players are comprised of that specific nationality.

 

I'd just say that overall Canada and Canadian development programs (including CHL) are losing ground to other countries and leagues.

 

Unfortunately Quanthockey.com does not have a breakdown by league, just by nationality.

The USHL had more players taken than any of the individual CHL leagues.

 

I think it’s clear the CHL has more elite talent, but the USHL is rapidly improving.

When the assistant GM is using that as part of his eval of potential draft picks criteria it matters. Whether it is a positive or a negative remains to be seen.

 

the CHL has very very few 16 year olds. 17 year olds are typically in their draft year.

Evaluation of what? Your problem with what he said makes no sense. He was asked how the USHL wa and he said it’s a very good league and has more older players than the CHL. I’d guess he’s right based on their own internal information. Nothing he said indicts the organizations one way or the other for any reason.