The avoidance of CHL players

[Eleven]

Botterill now is on record; he prefers non-CHL players because he can control their rights for a longer period of time.

 

He can. He is correct.

 

Is this smart, though?  Are the Sabres passing up good players just because of the league they're in?  And Vesey and Peterson remain as reminders that college players aren't always a great idea.

[Randall Flagg]

I believe he did say phrases like "all other things equal" and "especially later on." I don't think he would let himself pick a player he knows to be worse over one he knows to be better because of this. But if he does, then yeah, he's dumb.

[Amerks8796]

You also have to consider the CHL agreement with the NHL. It doesn’t allows players drafted from there to play in the AHL until they’re 20 by the end of the calendar year or 4 full seasons in juniors (I believe). European and college players can go to the AHL quicker if they're ready.

[Weave]

It concerns me. We have to be missing out on talent because of it.

[ubkev]

I agree with everything posted so far.

[dudacek]

Canadian hockey sucks.

Edited June 23, 2018 by dudacek

[ubkev]

Canadian hockey sucks.

True. They haven't won a U18 Championship since 2013.

[Taro T]

It is definitely disconcerting.

 

But don't believe he's passed on any standout CHL players in the top 3 rounds of either draft that were clearly better than who he chose. Will hold off on the pitchfork until he does so.

 

But would prefer to see at least 1 CHL kid drafted next year. WAAAAY too big a talent pool to shun reflexively.

[dudacek]

Anybody who watched the interviews with Botterill and Sexton today should be completely unconcerned that they are neglecting a talent pool.

 

It’s basically a moneypuck situation in the later rounds: a late bloomer in college or Europe has four years to bloom, a late bloomer in juniors has just two.

 

It’s the type of analytical approach I’d expect from an MBA.

[French Collection]

He would have taken McDavid over Jack.

 

I believe he would not pass up top talent, especially in the early rounds. Later picks need more time to develop and the Sabres gain time by going this route.

[Weave]

Anybody who watched the interviews with Botterill and Sexton today should be completely unconcerned that they are neglecting a talent pool.

 

It’s basically a moneypuck situation in the later rounds: a late bloomer in college or Europe has four years to bloom, a late bloomer in juniors has just two.

 

It’s the type of analytical approach I’d expect from an MBA.

 

There appears to be an early round avoidance as well though.  I'm not inclined to take at face value that the largest talent pool in the world didn't supply one single better prospect in the last two drafts, rounds 1-3.  Sample size is starting to suggest a bias, regardless of what he says.

[GASabresIUFAN]

There appears to be an early round avoidance as well though. I'm not inclined to take at face value that the largest talent pool in the world didn't supply one single better prospect in the last two drafts, rounds 1-3. Sample size is starting to suggest a bias, regardless of what he says.

Based on what? Mittelstadt fell to us. Dahlin was a must. He needed a goalie and drafted the best one on his board in UPL and Samuelsson was a value pick. Remember he was 20th on Baker’s board for example.

[dudacek]

There appears to be an early round avoidance as well though.  I'm not inclined to take at face value that the largest talent pool in the world didn't supply one single better prospect in the last two drafts, rounds 1-3.  Sample size is starting to suggest a bias, regardless of what he says.

You’re going to hold Dahlin and Mittelstadt against him? Occam’s razor man.

 

He admits a bias. He explained what it is. We will see if it hurts us in the long run.

 

In the 10 drafts before Botterill, we took 22 players out of the CHL after round 3.

Foligno and Paul Byron were the only ones to make it.

 

Maybe Botterill is on to something.

[Eleven]

You’re going to hold Dahlin and Mittelstadt against him? Occam’s razor man.

 

He admits a bias. He explained what it is. We will see if it hurts us in the long run.

 

In the 10 drafts before Botterill, we took 22 players out of the CHL after round 3.

Foligno and Paul Byron were the only ones to make it.

 

Maybe Botterill is on to something.

 

 

I wouldn't hold the last two first-round picks against him, but today's second-round pick was interesting.

[That Aud Smell]

He clearly intimated that he focused on non-CHL players in the later rounds, which makes sense — long shots, late bloomers need time to develop. Why not get 4 years instead of 2?

[Weave]

You’re going to hold Dahlin and Mittelstadt against him? Occam’s razor man.

 

He admits a bias. He explained what it is. We will see if it hurts us in the long run.

 

In the 10 drafts before Botterill, we took 22 players out of the CHL after round 3.

Foligno and Paul Byron were the only ones to make it.

 

Maybe Botterill is on to something.

 

I'm not holding anything against him.  But shading away from the largest talent pool in the world should be questioned on some level.

[dudacek]

I wouldn't hold the last two first-round picks against him, but today's second-round pick was interesting.

 

Because we picked the captain of the U.S. national development team, ranked as a late first in most rankings I saw, instead of a CHLer?

Less than half of the picks in the first two rounds were from the CHL.

[thewookie1]

Seeing as late picks are far less easy to project have 2 more years does make a lot of sense. So until he proves us otherwise I'd take him at his word. I also believe that many of the forwards he wanted were taken prior to his pick and the BPA just ended up with D every time.  And seeing as D tend to take longer to reach the NHL and are technically harder to get it technically makes sense from a value approach. A "C" Defensive prospect holds more value than a "C" Winger prospect more often than not. 

[North Buffalo]

Agree that he said spefically said later rounds he has a bias, but not the first two. Gotta think it makes sense. We shall see if the early rounds are a trend in the next couple years and if the later round development of players from college and Europe yields better results.

Edited June 24, 2018 by North Buffalo

[Sabel79]

The sample size here, and where the Sabres were drafting, has to be taken into account.

 

The front-end picks really can't be argued. The question is, in the first or second round, if the consensus BPA is a CHL kid, does JBOTS pass him over and go for a college / euro kid. I don't think he does. He said it himself, all other things being equal, more time to control the player wins out. If all things are not equal, the better layer comes in from the CHL, if that's the case.

[Doohicksie]

What really bothers me is that the Sabres haven't drafted out of the JIHL in decades.

[TrueBlueGED]

I'm not holding anything against him.  But shading away from the largest talent pool in the world should be questioned on some level.

 

Agreed. The top end of the draft for his two drafts here arguably forced his hand, and I think his logic holds with late-round shots in the dark. But the question becomes what does he do with a mid-late 1st round pick, his 2nds, and maybe his 3rds. We haven't picked enough in those ranges to know for sure, but I have an eyebrow raised.

You’re going to hold Dahlin and Mittelstadt against him? Occam’s razor man.

 

He admits a bias. He explained what it is. We will see if it hurts us in the long run.

 

In the 10 drafts before Botterill, we took 22 players out of the CHL after round 3.

Foligno and Paul Byron were the only ones to make it.

 

Maybe Botterill is on to something.

 

I don't care in the slightest that he has a bias in the late rounds for picks we're unlikely to ever see in the NHL anyway. I am, however, concerned that it might also bias picks in the range where it could be foregoing talent. 

[GoPuckYourself]

Agreed. The top end of the draft for his two drafts here arguably forced his hand, and I think his logic holds with late-round shots in the dark. But the question becomes what does he do with a mid-late 1st round pick, his 2nds, and maybe his 3rds. We haven't picked enough in those ranges to know for sure, but I have an eyebrow raised.

 

I don't care in the slightest that he has a bias in the late rounds for picks we're unlikely to ever see in the NHL anyway. I am, however, concerned that it might also bias picks in the range where it could be foregoing talent.

 

Why would you be concerned with it if he said "in the later rounds" ?

[LTS]

I think if you are concerned about this you overvalue the Canadian leagues.

 

The trend has been away from Juniors for awhile now.  The Canadian development program has not kept up with the changes that other countries have implemented.

 

Sure, there is talent there but not so much that there isn't talent somewhere else.

 

Frankly I like that they trend away from CHL.  It shows a realization of what is happening in the world.  If they were still holding onto drafting CHL players it would seem too old school.

[Weave]

If Botteril really was the architect of Pittsburgh's drafts then we do have a much larger sample size.  In 2014, 15, and 16 Pittsburgh drafted a total of 3 CHL players, one 2nd rd pick, one 3rd, and a 6th.  So we now have 5 draft years, 26 players drafted total.  Only 3 out of the CHL and they were sprinkled through early, mid and late rounds.

 

I am doubting this is situational.  Maybe the plan has success the way Detroit had mining Europe.  Frankly, it needs to.