That Aud Smell Posted August 1, 2018 Report Posted August 1, 2018 12 hours ago, pi2000 said: Doesn't matter, they already won. So winning a title entitles management to pay for past performance, manage poorly. Got it. 12 hours ago, Weave said: The other way requires a working crystal ball. Feels like we’re into midsummer weirdness around here.
Huckleberry Posted August 1, 2018 Report Posted August 1, 2018 6 hours ago, Brawndo said: https://www.nhl.com/coyotes/video/c-60818503 Behind the scenes for Arizona’s Draft. Chayka speaks with Botterill about Fasching and wonders if there is anything off of the Pittsburgh Roster he could trade for to make a ROR Deal work. Guess rutherford wasn't so tight lipped about the sheary deal then. Why would he ask such a thing if he didn't know about Botts interest in some of those players.
WildCard Posted August 1, 2018 Author Report Posted August 1, 2018 @FriedgeHNIC Arbitration for Mark Stone (OTT): team offer, $5M. Player ask, $9M. This could be a record case @FriedgeHNIC Largest arbitration award was Shea Weber, at $7.5M
WildCard Posted August 1, 2018 Author Report Posted August 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said: OTT be chiseling them mofos. 5 minutes ago, Eleven said: Stone's gonna be a UFA. Melnyk will refuse to pay anyone, he wants the team to be as close to the cap floor as possible when he sells them. Still amazed Karlsson is still there
dudacek Posted August 1, 2018 Report Posted August 1, 2018 (edited) 12 hours ago, Brawndo said: https://www.nhl.com/coyotes/video/c-60818503 Behind the scenes for Arizona’s Draft. Chayka speaks with Botterill about Fasching and wonders if there is anything off of the Pittsburgh Roster he could trade for to make a ROR Deal work. It also makes it clear that the Coyotes were in on the O’Reilly talks, which surprises me a bit. Chayka was surprised when Tkachuk went to Ottawa. Not clear whether they wanted him, but he got a lot of exposure in that video. Its easy to speculate that the Sabres were talking an O’Reilly for pick five deal, just like they were allegedly angling for pick three. I wish I could remember where I saw the Sabres were very high on Tkachuk. I also wonder if their goal in the ROR trade was to get a young top-six winger and Thompson wound up as the best available. Edited August 1, 2018 by dudacek
pi2000 Posted August 1, 2018 Report Posted August 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, dudacek said: It also makes it clear that the Coyotes were in on the O’Reilly talks, which surprises me a bit. Chayka was surprised when Tkachuk went to Ottawa. Not clear whether they wanted him, but he got a lot of exposure in that video. Its easy to speculate that the Sabres were talking an O’Reilly for pick five deal, just like they were allegedly angling for pick three. I wish I could remember where I saw the Sabres were very high on Tkachuk. I also wonder if their goal in the ROR trade was to get a young top-six winger and Thompson wound up as the best available. I believe the target was Wahlstrom.
WildCard Posted August 1, 2018 Author Report Posted August 1, 2018 1 minute ago, pi2000 said: I believe the target was Wahlstrom. Same
TrueBlueGED Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 23 hours ago, Weave said: I would think the most accurate projections are based on past performance. These aren't the most interesting arguments, really. there is elements of both in play. the reality is, contracts aren't based on projections or past performance nearly as much as they are based on what the market will bear. Or, at minimum, the perception of the market. Past performance is part of it, and you will get more accurate projections using it...if it's reasonably representative. Trends matter. Age matters. Okposo and Lucic were legitimate 1st line players on playoff teams. It took less than 2 seasons for each to produce less than their body of work would suggest. Brent Seabrook was a top pairing Dman most of his career. Basing his contract on that was a good move...except it wasn't. He's currently a low-end 2nd pair player. And so on.
LGR4GM Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 (edited) 11 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said: Past performance is part of it, and you will get more accurate projections using it...if it's reasonably representative. Trends matter. Age matters. Okposo and Lucic were legitimate 1st line players on playoff teams. It took less than 2 seasons for each to produce less than their body of work would suggest. Brent Seabrook was a top pairing Dman most of his career. Basing his contract on that was a good move...except it wasn't. He's currently a low-end 2nd pair player. And so on. The last age v production chart I saw shows players peaking in the 25-27 range 28-29 is a small dip and then 30 the line starts a downwards trend. If you have a 28yr old UFA and you want to pay him for 8 years based off of what he did at 25-27, you are probably going to end up in a bad spot at about year 3 or 4 of that contract. There are exceptions but again, you should plan on your guy being Moulson, not Jagr. Edited August 2, 2018 by LGR4GM
Weave Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: The last age v production chart I saw shows players peaking in the 25-27 range 28-29 is a small dip and then 30 the line starts a downwards trend. If you have a 28yr old UFA and you want to pay him for 8 years based off of what he did at 25-27, you are probably going to end up in a bad spot at about year 3 or 4 of that contract. There are exceptions but again, you should plan on your guy being Moulson, not Jagr. The whole conversation is in regards to Tom Wilson, who is 24. Not yet in his peak. And the deal ends right about the time a player statistically would begin a decline.
LGR4GM Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Weave said: The whole conversation is in regards to Tom Wilson, who is 24. Not yet in his peak. And the deal ends right about the time a player statistically would begin a decline. Tom Wilson should be entering his peak years then. If I thought he were better, I would give him a 5 or 6 year deal taking him up to the 30 threshold. My issue with Tom Wilson is that he overshot his career shooting percentage. Tom Wilson's shooting percentage should fall between 5.5 and 9.7, 95% of the time. Let's say he maintains his shot rate of 123 a season. If we take the high end of his sh% (9.7) and do the math, we get 12 goals. If we take the low end, we get roughly 7 goals. I wouldn't pay a player who is probably a 10goal guy that kind of money even though I know what he did in the playoffs. In the playoffs his shot percentage was 14.7%. That is double his career average. Now can he still contribute assists and help other ways even if he only gets 10 goals? Yes. Personally, I don't value that as highly as the Capitals which is why I don't care for the contract. Edited August 2, 2018 by LGR4GM
Eleven Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Tom Wilson should be entering his peak years then. If I thought he were better, I would give him a 5 or 6 year deal taking him up to the 30 threshold. And there's the issue. Either the Caps know something that every fan, sportswriter, TV/radio analyst, etc. in the hockey world doesn't know, or they did something stupid. The end result is that it drives up the price for the Reinharts of the world. (Maybe that was their intention?)
Weave Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: Tom Wilson should be entering his peak years then. If I thought he were better, I would give him a 5 or 6 year deal taking him up to the 30 threshold. My issue with Tom Wilson is that he overshot his career shooting percentage. Tom Wilson's shooting percentage should fall between 5.5 and 9.7, 95% of the time. Let's say he maintains his shot rate of 123 a season. If we take the high end of his sh% (9.7) and do the math, we get 12 goals. If we take the low end, we get roughly 7 goals. I wouldn't pay a player who is probably a 10goal guy that kind of money even though I know what he did in the playoffs. In the playoffs his shot percentage was 14.7%. That is double his career average. Now can he still contribute assists and help other ways even if he only gets 10 goals? Yes. Personally, I don't value that as highly as the Capitals which is why I don't care for the contract. And I have almost no opinion on the worth of Tom Wilson. Can't say I've ever really watched him with a critical eye. Every single one of my posts on this subject has been in regards to the market forces that shape these contracts, not Tom Wilson.
LGR4GM Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Weave said: And I have almost no opinion on the worth of Tom Wilson. Can't say I've ever really watched him with a critical eye. Every single one of my posts on this subject has been in regards to the market forces that shape these contracts, not Tom Wilson. I don't think it is the market, but is the Washington GM not being very good at long term deals. Didn't he sign TJ Oshie too? Edited August 2, 2018 by LGR4GM
Weave Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 (edited) 22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: I think the market is the Washington GM isn't very good at long term deals. Didn't he sign TJ Oshie too? Sometimes the only way to retain a player is to pay more than you want. Tom Wilson and TJ Oshie don't exactly grow on trees. The decision making may have been based on an owner that wants a Stanley Cup roster for the next 5 yrs. If I were to guess, the owner wants what is left of Ovie's career to be maximized. Are guys like Wilson and Oshie critical to that? I'm not the right guy to answer, but someone apparently thinks so. Edited August 2, 2018 by Weave
WildCard Posted August 2, 2018 Author Report Posted August 2, 2018 @lukefoxjukebox William Nylander says he wants a long-term contract with Maple Leafs as opposed to a bridge deal. @reporterchris William Karlsson/Vegas Golden Knights salary arbitration filings Player ask: $6.5M Team offer: $3.5M Hearing is scheduled for Saturday.
TrueBlueGED Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, WildCard said: @lukefoxjukebox William Nylander says he wants a long-term contract with Maple Leafs as opposed to a bridge deal. @reporterchris William Karlsson/Vegas Golden Knights salary arbitration filings Player ask: $6.5M Team offer: $3.5M Hearing is scheduled for Saturday. I'm surprised. That seems like a really low ask from Karlsson given the season he just had.
WildCard Posted August 2, 2018 Author Report Posted August 2, 2018 1 minute ago, TrueBlueGED said: I'm surprised. That seems like a really low ask from Karlsson given the season he just had. Same, and an equally low offer from Vegas. I was expecting a $7.5M ask from Karlsson, team offer of $5.5M
WildCard Posted August 2, 2018 Author Report Posted August 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dudacek said: How good is Karlsson? Honestly can't ever remember a player in any sport exploding in such a statistical anomaly as he has. Going to be real interesting to see his next season
dudacek Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WildCard said: Honestly can't ever remember a player in any sport exploding in such a statistical anomaly as he has. Going to be real interesting to see his next season Absolutely. Watching him in the playoffs, I like his game, but not in a top line kind of way.
LGR4GM Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 (edited) You have 3 solid years of numbers on Karlsson. He was at 8.3, 6.3 and then 23.4% as his shooting percentage. No one in the league shoots consistently at 23.4%. If you are at 15% you are at the top of league. Let's say he is human and drops back to 15%, that gives him 27goals next year as opposed to 43. That is probably worth 6.5m in this market. For the record, I think it far more likely he drops to something like 10-12% Edited August 2, 2018 by LGR4GM
shrader Posted August 2, 2018 Report Posted August 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, WildCard said: Honestly can't ever remember a player in any sport exploding in such a statistical anomaly as he has. Going to be real interesting to see his next season Everything about Vegas as a whole fits this description. I welcome all conspiracy theories when it comes to that team.
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