Around the NHL 2018-2019

[Thorner]

The Leafs are...very good.

Tavares, Matthews, Marner and Eichel are all very close, but they have 3 and we have 1. 

Reinhart's emergence and continued development is huge as is Mittelstadt's. Dahlin remains the x-factor.

But these Leafs are dynamic and their skill level is very impressive. 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Thorny

[Thorner]

11 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

The most interesting "take" I've seen is that it could signal NHL players moving to take more control of their future, a la NBA players. A ton of NBA stars don't take the max contract because they don't want to commit to one organization for 5 years. It makes sense to me for those at the top of the food chain, even if it carries some injury risk. I'd bet all the money in my retirement account that McDavid, off the record, would regret being tied to Edmonton for 7 more years. 

Yes please. 

The NHL is ridiculously stagnant where player movement is concerned relative to the other leagues. The market is so constricted that the only was to reasonably build your team for ensured success is to build, slowly, through the draft. League's don't need 5 year rebuilds. 

Add to that the drafting age being so young, it takes years and years to develop that way sustainably, and it's often a complete crap shoot.

The Sabres fan in me struggles with the idea of potentially not being able to lock up all our best assets, but the league is growing and purely from an entertainment, and league perspective, things need to change/are changing. Goes hand in hand with seeing more personality from the players, as well.

Good job by Matthews.

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yes please. 

The NHL is ridiculously stagnant where player movement is concerned relative to the other leagues. The market is so constricted that the only was to reasonably build your team for ensured success is to build, slowly, through the draft. League's don't need 5 year rebuilds. 

Add to that the drafting age being so young, it takes years and years to develop that way sustainably, and it's often a complete crap shoot.

5 year rebuilds aren't anything unless you're us. Personally I love that if I spend time scouting a guy for the draft, watching him develop and mature in our system, I know he's going to be with us for awhile. I really don't feel like watching a league where The Original 6 and Pittsburgh kick the ***** outta the rest of us

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

5 year rebuilds aren't anything unless you're us. Personally I love that if I spend time scouting a guy for the draft, watching him develop and mature in our system, I know he's going to be with us for awhile. I really don't feel like watching a league where The Original 6 and Pittsburgh kick the ***** outta the rest of us

There's still a cap, and it's never going to be as extreme as the NBA. Long rebuilds are definitely a thing outside of just Buffalo.

[CallawaySabres]

Will the Bruins ever just go away....

[WildCard]

40 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There's still a cap, and it's never going to be as extreme as the NBA. Long rebuilds are definitely a thing outside of just Buffalo.

They're not mandatory though, just the result of incompetence; it has nothing to do with FA or the draft. If anything incompetence is rewarded if we stray from that 

[Wyldnwoody44]

Hey the bruins lost in an epic shootout, only 1 point 

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Yes please. 

The NHL is ridiculously stagnant where player movement is concerned relative to the other leagues. The market is so constricted that the only was to reasonably build your team for ensured success is to build, slowly, through the draft. League's don't need 5 year rebuilds. 

Add to that the drafting age being so young, it takes years and years to develop that way sustainably, and it's often a complete crap shoot.

The Sabres fan in me struggles with the idea of potentially not being able to lock up all our best assets, but the league is growing and purely from an entertainment, and league perspective, things need to change/are changing. Goes hand in hand with seeing more personality from the players, as well.

Good job by Matthews.

I disagree in this being anything good. It will kill markets like Buffalo more than any of the larger market teams. The NBA is everything I hate in sports.

1. No defense or actual strategy until the final 3 min when it’s close

2. Super teams and complete refuse teams which horde many good players until they aren’t quite as useful 

3. No team loyalty. I’m not saying take a pay cut to stay, Im saying don’t flee at RFA conclusion and screw your fans for your own selfish desires. You will make multi millions regardless. Pay your dues and once your 30 or so, then go championship chasing if you weren’t  lucky.

4. Overly political

5. Far to much “me over the team mentality”

6. Personality is too far overboard to the point of dividing fans over their player’s beliefs and Twitter exploits. 

7. Seems to aim to please the lowest common denominator by making everything dramatic and earth shattering (I love trades but I cannot stand the sheer continuous churning of players) (everything needs to be fast, in your face, without one iota of thought) I didn’t mind the Spurs as much since they had a strategy, and executed as a team.

 

Baseball is too slow but I love the strategy and test of skill

Football is a slide show but it’s slides are fun

Hockey is faster and has some strategies but still has defense

Basketball is fun to play, but watching it bores me at the NBA level due to it tending to be solely a skills competition and nothing more. It’s the NHL shootout for 2 hours barring a small clump of time outs near the end of the game. I do enjoy game endings to a degree due to that.

In the end I want skill to be important but not the sole reason behind every game’s result. 

Edited February 7, 2019 by thewookie1

[shrader]

14 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Right, I'm not predicting it's going to become commonplace or anything, but crazier things have happened. I certainly don't think players are going to start taking 2-year deals like in the NBA, but contracts that get them to UFA make some sense.

The bounceyball money is obscene though, which plays a huge factor.  The NHL players don't stand to gain anywhere near as much with the series of short term deal.  I really do think it mostly comes down to a team driven game vs. a player driven game.  When you know that you're a player who can turn a team around all on your own, you know that short of absolute catastrophe, that next deal is out there.  When you're more reliant on the rest of the team around you, it makes you think twice.

Luxury taxes and contract options also make it a hell of a lot easier for the player to cash out repeatedly.

[WildCard]

Koivu tore his ACL in that collision with Thompson Tuesday night

[That Aud Smell]

Wasn't sure where to put this, but this seems as good a spot as any.

RIP to a true Sabres fan.

[apuszczalowski]

Who knows, Matthew's deal may start a trend for players wanting to test FA. It can depend on the player though. Some players care more about the security then the money and want the term, others want the chance to cash in and will take the risk of a short term deal to get a chance to negotiate another one later on. One of those options only works for the top/elite players in the league. The average player usually wont want to risk potentially losing a large sum of money because they didnt live up to their short term contract. The upper tier guys like Crosby, Matthew's, etc. typically dont have to worry and can take that risk. But if your someone like say Sam Reinhart, your probably gonna take the term over Matthew's style deal.

As for basketball, they also have one of the weirdest systems in place when it comes to contracts and caps. They have trades that if you compare what's being moved it looks extremely lopsided, but it's done so teams can open up room for future roster moves. 

I would not be looking at trying to emulate the NBAs system or hoping they do as a fan of hockey. The league always seems to be the same few teams leading the league, being able to build super teams, while the average team has no chance year in and year out. The players also seem to run the show and theres obvious tampering going on. You have guys like Balls father running to the media saying what team his son will go play for (basically letting the league know ahead of time where their interests are), and many other who its widely known that they will be signing in certain places once they are a FA (its widely known Leonard of the Raptors wants to sign with an LA team this offseason), etc. I have never heard Crosbys mom going to the media and telling them her boy will only play in Montreal if traded, or it widely known that Eichel would only sign in the North east when he hits FA.

[Thorner]

Blues win again; our pick will likely be the highest 1st we have. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Blues win again; our pick will likely be the highest 1st we have. 

Wouldn't it be bad if we drafted 1st and 2nd....that would suck.

[jame]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Blues win again; our pick will likely be the highest 1st we have. 

They beat the best team in the league, and moved in to a wild card spot... the ROR trade will end up costing the Sabres multiple playoff seasons and go down as one of the all time worst trades in franchise history.

[JJFIVEOH]

2 hours ago, jame said:

They beat the best team in the league, and moved in to a wild card spot... the ROR trade will end up costing the Sabres multiple playoff seasons and go down as one of the all time worst trades in franchise history.

I wouldn't go that far. They will potentially have three 1st round picks after this year. Whether it's low or high, first round picks usually pan out. 

I hated losing O'Reilly, he is borderline all-star. But having either three 1st rounders this year, or two this year and two next year says a lot for the future. 

I'm not happy that they might become the second team in NHL history with a 10 game win streak and not make the playoffs, but the fact that they were dead last for two straight years and are now in playoff contention has me excited. 

I'm still thinking Housley has to go, but the roster is stacked. Re-signing the ballerina is a must, though. 

[Huckleberry]

14 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

Who knows, Matthew's deal may start a trend for players wanting to test FA. It can depend on the player though. Some players care more about the security then the money and want the term, others want the chance to cash in and will take the risk of a short term deal to get a chance to negotiate another one later on. One of those options only works for the top/elite players in the league. The average player usually wont want to risk potentially losing a large sum of money because they didnt live up to their short term contract. The upper tier guys like Crosby, Matthew's, etc. typically dont have to worry and can take that risk. But if your someone like say Sam Reinhart, your probably gonna take the term over Matthew's style deal.

As for basketball, they also have one of the weirdest systems in place when it comes to contracts and caps. They have trades that if you compare what's being moved it looks extremely lopsided, but it's done so teams can open up room for future roster moves. 

I would not be looking at trying to emulate the NBAs system or hoping they do as a fan of hockey. The league always seems to be the same few teams leading the league, being able to build super teams, while the average team has no chance year in and year out. The players also seem to run the show and theres obvious tampering going on. You have guys like Balls father running to the media saying what team his son will go play for (basically letting the league know ahead of time where their interests are), and many other who its widely known that they will be signing in certain places once they are a FA (its widely known Leonard of the Raptors wants to sign with an LA team this offseason), etc. I have never heard Crosbys mom going to the media and telling them her boy will only play in Montreal if traded, or it widely known that Eichel would only sign in the North east when he hits FA.

Matthews deal is a deal that won't keep him in Toronto.   And gives him more power on where to play.   Eichel took the discount to play for the sabres for a long time and wants to be here.   Matthews I'm not so sure he wants to be a leaf for life.   

There are players out there with big long time deals , sure they got payed well, but do regret not being able which team to play for.    

[SABRES 0311]

Maybe in five years we can trade Eichel and sign Matthews.?

Edited February 8, 2019 by SABRES 0311

[jame]

6 hours ago, JJFIVEOH said:

I wouldn't go that far. They will potentially have three 1st round picks after this year. Whether it's low or high, first round picks usually pan out. 

I hated losing O'Reilly, he is borderline all-star. But having either three 1st rounders this year, or two this year and two next year says a lot for the future. 

I'm not happy that they might become the second team in NHL history with a 10 game win streak and not make the playoffs, but the fact that they were dead last for two straight years and are now in playoff contention has me excited. 

I'm still thinking Housley has to go, but the roster is stacked. Re-signing the ballerina is a must, though. 

Things that are not true. The success rate of mid-low 1st 1st rounders is not good... it's more like 25%

[That Aud Smell]

18 minutes ago, jame said:

Things that are not true. The success rate of mid-low 1st 1st rounders is not good... it's more like 25%

There are a lot of charts out there on the subject. I think this is a good one. Looks to me like you don't hit a 25% flame-out rate until you're into the 50s? I'm following that yellow line. Then again, I am not so great at reading charts. I think that's what it says, though.

 

And it also looks like your hit rate on mid-round 1st picks is about 50%. Around 38% by the end of round 1.

[jame]

12 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

There are a lot of charts out there on the subject. I think this is a good one. Looks to me like you don't hit a 25% flame-out rate until you're into the 50s? I'm following that yellow line. Then again, I am not so great at reading charts. I think that's what it says, though.

 

And it also looks like your hit rate on mid-round 1st picks is about 50%. Around 38% by the end of round 1.

1. That chart is over 10 years old

2. 200gp is not a good barometer for a successful draft pick.... unless you think we got a good deal on Zemgus Girgensons because of games played.

3. Here's a link that breaks down the same draft years you displayed, but by draft slot and whether the player is Top6/4/1G. You can see that most of the mid-late 1st round draft slots net a 20-30% return rate... 

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-values-1.1119528

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

 

Note: Every single pick after 15, has a >50% chance of being 4th line or worse.... and no pick has a >36% chance of being a difference maker.

Edited February 8, 2019 by jame

[CallawaySabres]

Yup, the O'Reilly trade will be the one that kills this team for a while. Our current GM is starting to look equally as bad as our last and this franchise has at least 2 more years to even sniff the 8 spot. With Tampa, Toronto, and Boston all being ahead of Buffalo in talent for a while, we will have to scrap it out with all the Wild Card teams for the coming years. How the hell did we end up being the Bills in the Patriots division....AGAIN

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

Yup, the O'Reilly trade will be the one that kills this team for a while. Our current GM is starting to look equally as bad as our last and this franchise has at least 2 more years to even sniff the 8 spot. With Tampa, Toronto, and Boston all being ahead of Buffalo in talent for a while, we will have to scrap it out with all the Wild Card teams for the coming years. How the hell did we end up being the Bills in the Patriots division....AGAIN

Again, that fully depends on Mittelstadt. The ROR trade was always going to be a major hit. 

[CallawaySabres]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Again, that fully depends on Mittelstadt. The ROR trade was always going to be a major hit. 

Regardless of Mittle, it was an awful trade.

[rakish]

I think you guys are confusing the value of draft picks with the results they create. If you look at the raw data (the pointy lines), I read it that the 40th pick has better results than the 30th pick. The 40th pick will generally have more opportunity to progress than with the really good teams (picks 29 and 30), and isn't being selected by poor selectors (picks 32 and 33). The people creating this chart flatten the regression lines to hide this, because having the value of the 40th pick higher than the 30th pick ruins the narrative.