Casey Mittelstadt, what will his rookie year be

[IKnowPhysics]

PP could depend on assistant coaches more than Housely.

 

We watched a good PP get slapped when Scotty Arniel left.

Edited June 7, 2018 by IKnowPhysics

[Taro T]

PP could depend on assistant coaches more than Housely.

We watched a good PP get slapped when Scotty Arniel left.

True. But, by midseason even the changes made when Wood left had been reversed and the top unit was clicking. Let O'Reilly & Okposo explain what their unit does to the coaches in training camp & then let the coaches work w/ that & their own ideas for the 2nd unit.

 

DO NOT F### w/ the 1st unit. It has worked (when run as Woods ran it) masterfully the past 2 years. As was demonstrated in October & November, it CAN be broken. Don't do that.

[Randall Flagg]

I don't remember exactly when PP1 was put back together, but they were at over 24% again, the rate which gave them first last year, from January 1 - the rest of the year.

[Beer]

You could argue that ROR is. 

 

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen

Jost - Kerfoot - Andrighetto

Nieto - Soderberg - Comeau

Wilson - Compher - Borque 

 

This is what turned the Avs around. Sabres comparable: 

ROR - Eichel - Reinhart 

Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo 

xxx - Girgensons - Baptiste 

Wilson - xxx - xxx

 

Throw in UFA forward depth and our forward group is just as good as that one with the same structure. 

 

ROR - Eichel - Reinhart 

Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo 

Girgensons - Nash - Baptiste 

Wilson - Asplund - Perron

 

The wet dream: 

ROR - Eichel - Baptiste 

Girgensons - Tavares - Reinhart 

Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo 

Asplund - Nash - Perron

 

Lots of Centers in that wet dream. Our two way game will be lights out.

[Thorner]

Well, he had 5 points in 6 games last season. So factor that ratio over 82 games.

 

68 points.

 

:D

[GASabresIUFAN]

Well, he had 5 points in 6 games last season. So factor that ratio over 82 games.

68 points.

:D

That’s as good a reference point as anyone else has mentioned.

[IKnowPhysics]

Based on his 30 points in 34 games as a Gopher in B1G (NHLe = 0.33), Casey's NHL equivalency is 240 points.

FTFY

[Rasmus_]

12 goals 28 assists for 40 points.  A decent showing on the PP and in terms of face off percentage.  It could be more in the 15 goal 20 assist range as well. 

[That Aud Smell]

12 goals 28 assists for 40 points.  A decent showing on the PP and in terms of face off percentage.  It could be more in the 15 goal 20 assist range as well. 

 

more and more, I feel like this would represent a genuinely successful rookie season for a somewhat slight 19 (yes, turning 20) year-old.

[dudacek]

Best Sabre rookie seasons this century.

Eichel 56

Ennis 49

Myers 48

Vanek 48

Reinhart 42

Kotalik 35

Afinogenov 34

Pominville 30

[ubkev]

Best Sabre rookie seasons this century.

Eichel 56

Ennis 49

Myers 48

Vanek 48

Reinhart 42

Kotalik 35

Afinogenov 34

Pominville 30

I'll set the over/under at 34.5

[That Aud Smell]

I'll set the over/under at 34.5

 

that's ... that's a fair number.

 

my heart says the over.

 

my brain says the under (but not by much (which may mean the smarter money is on the over)).

[Taro T]

I'll set the over/under at 34.5

  

that's ... that's a fair number.

 

my heart says the over.

 

my brain says the under (but not by much (which may mean the smarter money is on the over)).

Agree that's a good betting line. Really expect whether he meets it or misses comes down to whether he supports Eichel or Tavares ;) or is driving the 3rd line.

[nfreeman]

Y’know, Kotalik had his limitations but I kinda liked his game. Lindy really got just about all there was to get out of him.

[Doohicksie]

Y’know, Kotalik had his limitations but I kinda liked his game. Lindy really got just about all there was to get out of him.

 

That was one of Lindy's talents.  He reinvented his system several times to take advantage of the talents of the players on the team.  Right up until just before the end, he seemed to be able to squeeze all that talent out of his players.  We haven't had a coach that could do that since him*

 

*I'm still hoping Housley will figure out how.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This is getting off topic. Lindy had a bad habit late in his time here of helping players regress.

 

The key for Wowie will be getting the kids to improve. He really helped Jack and Sam, so I have high hopes for Casey and Dahlin.

Edited June 11, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Neo]

I know their paths are different, but can anyone see a DeBrincat rookie stat line for Mittlestadt?

[Drunkard]

I know their paths are different, but can anyone see a DeBrincat rookie stat line for Mittlestadt?

 

That'll do for the 2018 portion of the season. Then he needs to replicate it again for the 2019 portion.

[Neo]

That'll do for the 2018 portion of the season. Then he needs to replicate it again for the 2019 portion.

You never let me down !

[WildCard]

Man, DeBrinct is a real tiny fellow

Edited June 11, 2018 by WildCard

[Doohicksie]

This is getting off topic. Lindy had a bad habit late in his time here of helping players regress.

 

I won't argue.  For the first 3/4 of his tenure (more or less), he was good, but then he lost the room and the rotten core and who knows whose fault it was.  But it was time for Lindy to go.

[nfreeman]

Outstanding article in the Athletic today on Casey:  https://theathletic.com/486383/2018/08/24/the-gifted-sabres-super-prospect-casey-mittelstadt-a-playmaker-in-the-truest-sense/
 

Quote

...he has continued to demonstrate to me that he has all of the tools he needs, led by that composure and the anticipation that comes with it, to be an elite NHL player (a term I am extremely reluctant to throw around with players his age)

... Mittelstadt makes a ton of plays by relying not on his feet (he’s a good skater but he’s not going to blow by guys at the NHL level) but by keeping his hands high on his shaft and using his stick to change directions or make plays through defencemen

... The other thing from the play above — and maybe a more important facet of his game than the world-class skill he has as a handler — is the way Mittelstadt uses the ice. Everything he does pushes the play to the middle of the ice.

... Mittelstadt is never going to take that play wide and into the corner to start the cycle, or throw a bad angle shot on net to occasionally get lucky and create a goal. Instead, he’s going to consistently make the higher risk play — and occasionally turn the puck over — relying on his skill to create a more dangerous scoring chance. He consistently works from the outside-in, rather than the inside-out.

... The end result, occasionally, when you put that complete package together, is a player who can take over a shift and a game without having to rely on his linemates to do it. And that’s the best sign of a player who can be dominant at the next level.

 

 

 

[WildCard]

Just now, nfreeman said:

Outstanding article in the Athletic today on Casey:  https://theathletic.com/486383/2018/08/24/the-gifted-sabres-super-prospect-casey-mittelstadt-a-playmaker-in-the-truest-sense/
 

...Mittelstadt makes a ton of plays by relying not on his feet (he’s a good skater but he’s not going to blow by guys at the NHL level) but by keeping his hands high on his shaft and using his stick to change directions or make plays through defencemen

 

I'm still a child

[dudacek]

@nfreeman just came to post that.

Loved how the piece quantified the “it” factor Casey has to his game.

This was my favourite line:

”One of the first things I look for when I watch a player is whether or not the plays they’re a part of are dictated by their contribution or dictated to them. Primary production and data can sometimes illuminate if a player is driving play or reacting to it but a lot of that can be tested by watching the player over repeated viewings. With Mittelstadt, he’s almost always the biggest factor in the plays that happen when he’s on the ice.”

Edited August 24, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

I am as excited about Casey as anyone and the following is not bashing Casey, but I do want to play devil’s advocate for a minute.

We saw Casey play in three different situations last season, but his largest sample size was arguably a bit of a disappointment.  He dominated kids his own age at the World Jrs.  He looked good in 6 NHL games at season’s end, but for most of the season in college has was good but not stellar.

To compare

Eichel: 40gms 26g 45a 71 pts

Larkin: 35gms 15g 32a 47pts

Mittelstadt: 34gms 11g 19a 30 pts

I watched many of Casey’s Gophers games and in W Jrs and you could see what the Athletic mentioned, but I’m not sure he is ready to make that kind of play in the NHL against bigger, older and more skilled players consistently.  He wasn’t able to do it in college enough to dominate, can we really expect it in the NHL?

In Casey’s favor is the confidence that Jbot has placed in him by trading away ROR.  It reminds me of Brian McCann as a rookie with the Braves.  The Braves had an All-star catcher in Johnny Estrada.  McCann came up in late 2005 at 21 years old and Estrada was traded before the 2006 season.  I actually had a beer with McCann that off-season at a Falcons game and we talked about the Estrada trade which had happened a few days earlier.  I hope Casey justifies Jbot’s confidence like McCann did for the Braves (7 All-stars games and 5  Silver Sluggers).