Casey Mittelstadt, what will his rookie year be

[That Aud Smell]

I expect Casey to start the season in Rochester.

 

As in: You think he should?

 

Or, as in: You think he will?

 

I would not disagree with the former. 

 

I do disagree with the latter.

[Randall Flagg]

Jay Beagle is a free agent right?

Problem solved!

I forgot this. 

 

I think we can build a good 4th line completely from UFA pieces on nice contracts. There are a ton of those guys out there. Even if you only get 2 and throw Wilson with them, it can be good. 

 

We need to do this, because it will make us able to scrape by as is, and will make us flourish with depth if young kids or JT surprise.

[Derrico]

Question marks, absolutely. However, we can’t continually do the TM two step and trade away prospects for vets. At some point you are going to have to give the kids a legit shot at the roster and see what you have. This is that season. I agree that Bailey, Nylander and Baptiste have disappointed so far, but Erod has done nothing but get better each year in the pros. Wilson was also a step up over Pouliot and company after being acquired. O’Regan and Smith have a similar pedigree to Erod, Rust and Sheary. At some point we are going to hit on one of these college kids. I like Smith’s chances. I also really like Olofsson’s game. If he makes the team and plays with Casey or Jack, he’ll score 20.

 

One other thing you aren’t considering. You want complimentary skills on a line. Ruff used to refer to it as a scorer, a playmaker and a grinder/physical presense.

If I’m building out this lineup

1) Erod Jack Okposo - Jack is the scorer, Erod the playmaker and Okposo is physical but can also do the other two jobs

2) Wilson ROR Reinhart - Wilson the grinder and ROR and Sam playing off each other like they did last year

3) Olofsson/Smith Casey Baptiste - Baptiste is the grinder, Casey the playmaker if with Olofsson or scorer if with Smith

4) Bailey O’Regan Pominville - effort with a little veteran touch.

 

This is far from hopeless, it’s just a young group. This is what happens in a rebuild. I won’t complain if we sign a vet or two like Vanek or Neal.

I'm not ready/willing to trade those guys away.  But I'm definitely not ready to rely on those as top 9 players either.  I agreed with you on Erod.  He's the one top 9 (3rd line) guy you listed and I agreed with you.

 

I'm considering the second point.  I just think it's a giant leap to look at the list of guys you had and expect atleast 3 guys to basically turn into top 6/9 players.  The lineup you have listed there looks brutal.  I don't know the answer other than I would describe our wingers as pretty close to hopeless.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Derrico

[Thorner]

ROR wouldn't suddenly stop playing defense on the wing. 

I could rewrite that as Eich-ROR-Reinhart if it made you feel better. But stacking a top line in particular when your best offensive player still loses his even strength matchups is not a guarantee of failure, especially if you lack forward depth, as evidenced in Colorado and Boston this season. We gave ROR Jay Beagle's role, which nobody in this league does with a top six center outside of Kopitar on occasion, and it gave us last place and one of the worst offenses out there.

 

Good post.

[Weave]

There are a fair amount of internal candidates for the other jobs. Bailey, Baptiste, Smith, Olofsson, Wilson, O’Regan, and Nylander. A couple of these guys will step up and make this team. Smith, Wilson and Baptiste are my favorites, but Olofsson really intrigues me. There are also plenty of FAs to choose from such as Neal, Vanek, JVR and Perron to fill voids until the kids develop.

:barf

 

Definition of hopeless right there.

You named one top 6. Another a top 6 if healthy (which he hasn't been and isn't getting any younger). Plus one top 9.

 

That's a hopeless situation my friend.

 

Bailey: Isn't consistent and hasn't shown any signs of being a top 6

Baptiste: I think he's a great 4th line guy

Smith: Prove it

Olofsson: Same as above

Wilson: Really should be 4th line, maybe 3rd

O'Regan: Really prove it

Nylander: Same as above

 

That whole list is riddled with question marks and disappointments

Well put.

 

 

If that is the collection of wingers we are going to supply for Casey, his numbers will be horrible.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm not ready/willing to trade those guys away.  But I'm definitely not ready to rely on those as top 9 players either.  I agreed with you on Erod.  He's the one top 9 (3rd line) guy you listed and I agreed with you.

 

I'm considering the second point.  I just think it's a giant leap to look at the list of guys you had and expect atleast 3 guys to basically turn into top 6/9 players.  The lineup you have listed there looks brutal.  I don't know the answer other than I would describe our wingers as pretty close to hopeless.

I think you are over estimating what other teams have depth wise on the wing. The likely Cup winning team has Tom Wilson is playing on the top line. His best season before scoring 35 pts this year, was 23 back in 2015-16. Their top wingers are Oshie (47pts this year) and Ovie. Wilson is their third highest scoring winger. They fill out the wing with Brett Connolly (27pts), Vrana (27 pts) Burakovsky (25 pts).

 

Last year we had Reinhart 50 pts, Okposo 44, Pommers 34, Erod 25 in 48gms (43 pt pace), Wilson 14pts in 49 gms (24 pts pace).

[Drunkard]

:barf

 

Definition of hopeless right there.

 

Well put.

 

 

If that is the collection of wingers we are going to supply for Casey, his numbers will be horrible.

 

That's why they should stick him at left wing.

 

Mittelstadt Eichel Okposo

Rodriguez O'Reilly Reinhart

 

That's a decent top 6.

 

We tried to spread our talent out last year and Reinhart floundered there despite being a natural center and it being his third year in the league. Now people want to do that again but this time with a rookie. Makes no damn sense.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Alkoholist

[IKnowPhysics]

Based on his 30 points in 34 games as a Gopher in B1G (NHLe = 0.33), Casey's NHL equivalency is 24 points.

 

Now, he did this as a freshman, so he's young and has a lot of potential to tap.

[pi2000]

Based on his 30 points in 34 games as a Gopher in B1G (NHLe = 0.33), Casey's NHL equivalency is 24 points.

 

Now, he did this as a freshman, so he's young and has a lot of potential to tap.

Also consider he was on an offensively challenged Minnesota squad. He consistently generated chances, which should translate well to the NHL.

 

That said, in my amateurish opinion, he'll finish somewhere around 90 goals and 120 assist.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Soooo...

 

Hand injury, game 26,out 7 games

Concussion game 58, out 9 games

Checking from behind, 2 game suspension

 

Missing 18 games

1 own goal

1 #antics

 

11 goals, 13 assists

 

31 PIM

 

Ends up in Phil's doghouse for a stretch and is demoted to 4th line duty

[DarthEbriate]

Please be realistic. I really have no desire to read a bunch of posts that claim Mittelstadt will beat up Thor while scoring 100goals.

 

Well sure... you say that. But as the Spice Girls will tell you what you really really want...  His rookie year is going to be a lot of this blaring over the soundsystem as the goals pile up:

[Drunkard]

Based on his 30 points in 34 games as a Gopher in B1G (NHLe = 0.33), Casey's NHL equivalency is 24 points.

 

Now, he did this as a freshman, so he's young and has a lot of potential to tap.

 

Those equivalency stats are for mere mortals. You need to factor in Casey's diety status. It multiplies his NHLe factor tenfold at least.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Alkoholist

[That Aud Smell]

Those equivalency stats are for mere mortals. You need to factor in Casey's diety status. It multiplies his NHLe factor tenfold at least.

 

We keed, we keed, of course.

 

But I am wondering whether -- come January -- there will be some hand wringing and head scratching about Mittelstadt around here and elsewhere.

 

I'll say preemptively: There needn't be. I predict that the guy is going to struggle somewhat next season, and that he will also have some stretches of play that are spectacular. I'll stand by a prediction of 30 points.

[Derrico]

We keed, we keed, of course.

 

But I am wondering whether -- come January -- there will be some hand wringing and head scratching about Mittelstadt around here and elsewhere.

 

I'll say preemptively: There needn't be. I predict that the guy is going to struggle somewhat next season, and that he will also have some stretches of play that are spectacular. I'll stand by a prediction of 30 points.

This all sounds right.

 

But in another world, I'm imagining Casey-ROR-Sam as line and Casey looking spectacular playing with two guys that have hockey sense to match him.  He's fighting with Svechnikov and Dahlin for the Calder putting up 70 points.  Other teams cannot believe this guy fell to 8th overall because he couldn't do a single pull-up (I know there were other concerns as well).

[Drunkard]

We keed, we keed, of course.

 

But I am wondering whether -- come January -- there will be some hand wringing and head scratching about Mittelstadt around here and elsewhere.

 

I'll say preemptively: There needn't be. I predict that the guy is going to struggle somewhat next season, and that he will also have some stretches of play that are spectacular. I'll stand by a prediction of 30 points.

 

The only way he scores in the 30 point range is by getting stapled to the 3rd line with dog on his wings. I hope they don't over a promising rookie like that.

[Randall Flagg]

The only way he scores in the 30 point range is by getting stapled to the 3rd line with dog ###### on his wings. I hope they don't ###### over a promising rookie like that.

This isn't true. I don't care that he got 5 points in 6 games, about 4 of which were of the "I didn't do that much but got an assist that Eichel would have given his kidney for with how hard he usually has to work for them" variety. 

 

He's a slight kid that is going to hit a couple of walls like they all do. You could see his skill and hockey sense, but especially on the walls, the game is too big and too fast for him to consistently do well there as of now. He's got that ultra-light stickhandling I have mentioned more than once - he almost doesn't even stickhandle the puck sometimes more than just wiggling his stick super fast on either side of it, barely touching it, and that lost him the puck about thirty times in his 6 games. 

 

He's gonna be a good hockey player but 30-40 points would neither be surprising nor disappointing necessarily. 

[Drunkard]

This isn't true. I don't care that he got 5 points in 6 games, about 4 of which were of the "I didn't do that much but got an assist that Eichel would have given his kidney for with how hard he usually has to work for them" variety. 

 

He's a slight kid that is going to hit a couple of walls like they all do. You could see his skill and hockey sense, but especially on the walls, the game is too big and too fast for him to consistently do well there as of now. He's got that ultra-light stickhandling I have mentioned more than once - he almost doesn't even stickhandle the puck sometimes more than just wiggling his stick super fast on either side of it, barely touching it, and that lost him the puck about thirty times in his 6 games. 

 

He's gonna be a good hockey player but 30-40 points would neither be surprising nor disappointing necessarily. 

 

You can doubt Lord Casey (pbuh) all you want, but that doesn't make it true. He is the alpha and the omega and the only thing that can stop this superman is the kryptonite of stapling dog ###### players like Pominville and Wilson/Bailey/Baptiste to his wings on the 3rd line. You will eventually be forgiven, as Lord Casey (pbuh) is a just and loving God to all that are not his sworn enemies.

 

Be forewarned that enough doubtful talk can cause you to be moved from the list of the doubtful to the list of sworn enemies where you will be smited. So it has been written..... So it shall be done.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Alkoholist

[Weave]

We keed, we keed, of course.

 

But I am wondering whether -- come January -- there will be some hand wringing and head scratching about Mittelstadt around here and elsewhere.

 

I'll say preemptively: There needn't be. I predict that the guy is going to struggle somewhat next season, and that he will also have some stretches of play that are spectacular. I'll stand by a prediction of 30 points.

As long as there are stretches of spectacular play there need not be any worry, regardless of points.

 

My concerns re: Sam was the absolute lack of spectacular plays at center, not his lack of points. If Casey can demonstrate the skill, that’s all we need his rookie season.

[nfreeman]

I predict 3rd-line C, with wingers consisting of a fading and overpaid vet (Pommer or KO) and a youngster (DOR, Smith, Baptiste, other), plus 2nd PP mainstay.

 

He'll end up with around 38 points in 15ish sheltered minutes per game, he'll elevate his wingers and he'll be in the ROY mix.

 

Because that is how TF he rolls.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I predict 3rd-line C, with wingers consisting of a fading and overpaid vet (Pommer or KO) and a youngster (DOR, Smith, Baptiste, other), plus 2nd PP mainstay.

 

He'll end up with around 38 points in 15ish sheltered minutes per game, he'll elevate his wingers and he'll be in the ROY mix.

 

Because that is how TF he rolls.

I think this is pretty reasonable. 40 pts is a good number for 3rd line centers

[Randall Flagg]

I think this is pretty reasonable. 40 pts is a good number for 3rd line centers

That would be amazing. The last few years we've gotten, from the 3rd highest scoring C on the rotster, 17, 16, 18, 17, and 22 points. (2018, 17, 16, 15, 14). 

And it's not like Casey won't likely beat those numbers by a fair amount. He could be key to jump starting our depth. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

That would be amazing. The last few years we've gotten, from the 3rd highest scoring C on the rotster, 17, 16, 18, 17, and 22 points. (2018, 17, 16, 15, 14). And it's not like Casey won't likely beat those numbers by a fair amount. He could be key to jump starting our depth.

 

Casey is a huge upgrade from the black hole of talent we had playing the 3rd line center role. I did a Hockeydb.com search and found the 3rd line centers on good teams score 30-50 points. I think Casey is going to get siginifcant PP time which should boost his point production.

[nfreeman]

That would be amazing. The last few years we've gotten, from the 3rd highest scoring C on the rotster, 17, 16, 18, 17, and 22 points. (2018, 17, 16, 15, 14). 

And it's not like Casey won't likely beat those numbers by a fair amount. He could be key to jump starting our depth. 

 

Well, they have been freaking abysmal for the past few years.

 

JBott is going to bring in a good goalie and hopefully at least 2 good vets who will show Jack and Reino how to behave like pros, Casey and Dahlin are going to be impact players, ROR is going to stop moping and the Sabres are going to be much improved.

 

(...he said bravely.)

[Derrico]

Casey is a huge upgrade from the black hole of talent we had playing the 3rd line center role. I did a Hockeydb.com search and found the 3rd line centers on good teams score 30-50 points. I think Casey is going to get siginifcant PP time which should boost his point production.

That right there will probably be the second biggest factor for his point total.  I really wonder what Phil does with the lineup.  Casey tends to play the half wall and likes to QB the pp in a very similar way to Eichel.  So I could easily see him taking Eichel's spot on the PP2.  Then again, kid has unreal vision so maybe Phil loads him on that top unit and tries to get them back to #1 in the NHL again.

[Taro T]

That right there will probably be the second biggest factor for his point total.  I really wonder what Phil does with the lineup.  Casey tends to play the half wall and likes to QB the pp in a very similar way to Eichel.  So I could easily see him taking Eichel's spot on the PP2.  Then again, kid has unreal vision so maybe Phil loads him on that top unit and tries to get them back to #1 in the NHL again.

Would REALLY like to see Housley follow the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" model when handling the 1st PP unit.

 

The 2nd unit can have Mittelstadt in Eichel's role and Dahlin in Ristolainen's role. Let at least 1 of the others be a FA brought in this summer & round out the other 2 spots based on what seems to be working w/ the other pieces on the roster.

 

Having the top unit be one of the top 5 in the league like it should be, combined w/ getting more than a goal every 10 games from the 2nd unit & top 3 in the league should be a very reasonable goal for the PP units & the top ranking overall should be the stretch goal. (That and limiting opponents to 4 or fewer SH goals over the course of a season rather than just a single homestand.)