LGR4GM Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Please be realistic. I really have no desire to read a bunch of posts that claim Mittelstadt will beat up Thor while scoring 100goals. Who are his linemates? I have already heard a suggestion of Erod - Mittelstadt - Okposo which I actually really like. I think somewhere in the upper 30pt range is probable. Honestly if he hits 30 points we should all be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 I think this will come down to where he plays. If he's third line C then I think 30 points is a good benchmark. I would expect Dahlin will end up with more points in our rookie battle. If he ends up as a top 6 winger then he's either with Jack, or more likely Sam and ROR. I wouldn't be surprised he puts up 45 - 50 in this scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 It's too soon to tell because we don't know where he'll be playing. They could bury him on the 3rd line with dead wood, they could play him at wing with better players, or they could move O'Reilly and have him center the second line with better linemates. Given the various scenarios, I'd guess: 3rd Line Center - 30 points 2nd Line Center (with O'Reilly traded or moved to wing) - 40 points Top 6 winger - 50 points On a side note, without some improvements to the roster or Housley attempting to "balance" the lines I don't think he gets paired with Rodriguez on the 3rd line because our wingers suck too much to have Rodriguez down there. He is arguably our 3rd best winger after Reinhart and Okposo right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustache of God Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Will he stay on the 3rd line all season? Does he get saddled with Larsson/Girgenson types or will he play with people who can help him produce. Does he get Power Play time on the 1st unit? Does Dahlin play on the 1st PP Unit? I like the idea of Sam in front of the net, Dahlin on the point cycling the puck between Casey, RoR and Jack. The points will come for Casey, for sure, I'm curious to see how well he plays C in our defensive zone. Realistically I think we'll see Casey start the season the way he finished his dry-run this year, which was 5 points in 6 games. 24 games into the season he'll be sitting at 20 points. There will be mentions of the Calder, however, the grind of the NHL will catch up to him, and from games 25-65, his production will pull a "Fall '17 Reinhart" and dry up. He'll find his game for the last 20 games or so and will finish the season between 45-50 points. Or he starts hot, stays hot, goes supernova in the playoffs and takes home his first of 13 Conn Symthe Trophies and helps ROR, "fall back in love with the game and also with Casey". also: I'm expecting Jbots to make some moves around the draft/FA period and hopefully the roster will have a shakeup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 He is the player I am most excited to watch next season. Was really impressed with him. I'd be shocked if he didn't get significant power play time and I'd be pissed if he gets stuck on the third line with unskilled players (Okposo is fine, Rodriguez might work, not sure). He seems more of a play maker than goal scorer right now, so I'll go with 13 goals and 33 assists. Or he starts hot, stays hot, goes supernova in the playoffs and takes home his first of 13 Conn Symthe Trophies and helps ROR, "fall back in love with the game and also with Casey". this!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodbuster Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 12g, 24a Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Please be realistic. I really have no desire to read a bunch of posts that claim Mittelstadt will beat up Thor while scoring 100goals. Who are his linemates? I have already heard a suggestion of Erod - Mittelstadt - Okposo which I actually really like. I think somewhere in the upper 30pt range is probable. Honestly if he hits 30 points we should all be happy. I was thinking about this the other day since the jokers on WGR were talking about how he could be the rookie of the year this year. I think they were smoking something as they were talking 60pts, him replacing ROR and being in the Barzal conversation (potential ROY this year w/ 80+ pts). Schopp & Bulldog are obviously required to make some "hot takes" in order to generate discussion. I think your estimate of middle six players and lines with 30-40pts is about what we should be expecting. Anything more is gravy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 I was thinking about this the other day since the jokers on WGR were talking about how he could be the rookie of the year this year. I think they were smoking something as they were talking 60pts, him replacing ROR and being in the Barzal conversation (potential ROY this year w/ 80+ pts). Schopp & Bulldog are obviously required to make some "hot takes" in order to generate discussion. I think your estimate of middle six players and lines with 30-40pts is about what we should be expecting. Anything more is gravy. Yep. Eichel and ROR are the only Sabres to score 60 points in the last, probably, six years. And the highest point total there is 64. then 61 and 60. Casey is not getting 60 points this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 (edited) Most translation/prediction factors assign about a .33 value to players from the Big 10. Middlestadt's 30 points in 34 games at Minnesota would have translated to 72 points over 82 games. If you factor 72 by .33, you'd be looking at about 23 points. While I am sure power play usage could up his numbers a bit, I am skeptical about the calls for him to post ~35-40 points (or more). He's likely going to struggle for good chunks of time next year. He'll probably be a healthy scratch for ~7 games or so. I'd say if he gets 30 points, that would be a very good rookie campaign. Edited June 6, 2018 by That Aud Smell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 If he’s at center I expect the best winger he’ll see is Pominville and his stats will suffer accordingly. Hopefully he doesn’t flounder in that role as Samson did. If on line 3, I’m hoping for lower than wanted points totals but effective play otherwise. Cuz the points won’t be coming 5v5. I still think starting the season on Jack or RORs left side is a solid way to get him started in the NHL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 If he's where IMHO he should start the year - on Eichel or O'Reilly's wing, would expect he'll get close to 40 points. Running the 3rd line from day 1, would expect 28-31 points. Linemates & usage matter tremendously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Casey is our 3rd line center next season. If they bring in a winger, such as fellow Minn alum Vanek, and put Casey between them, I can easily see 120 pts plus from that line. If you don’t want Pommers in the top 9, you play Baptiste there. I actually think our winger situation isn’t a hopeless as many here seem to think. Reinhart is top 6. Okposo if fully healthy is also. Erod will be in the top 9, maybe on Jack’s wing and he’ll be productive regardless of where he plays. So that is 3/6 of the wingers we need. There are a fair amount of internal candidates for the other jobs. Bailey, Baptiste, Smith, Olofsson, Wilson, O’Regan, and Nylander. A couple of these guys will step up and make this team. Smith, Wilson and Baptiste are my favorites, but Olofsson really intrigues me. There are also plenty of FAs to choose from such as Neal, Vanek, JVR and Perron to fill voids until the kids develop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Casey is our 3rd line center next season. If they bring in a winger, such as fellow Minn alum Vanek, and put Casey between them, I can easily see 120 pts plus from that line. If you don’t want Pommers in the top 9, you play Baptiste there. I actually think our winger situation isn’t a hopeless as many here seem to think. Reinhart is top 6. Okposo if fully healthy is also. Erod will be in the top 9, maybe on Jack’s wing and he’ll be productive regardless of where he plays. So that is 3/6 of the wingers we need. There are a fair amount of internal candidates for the other jobs. Bailey, Baptiste, Smith, Olofsson, Wilson, O’Regan, and Nylander. A couple of these guys will step up and make this team. Smith, Wilson and Baptiste are my favorites, but Olofsson really intrigues me. There are also plenty of FAs to choose from such as Neal, Vanek, JVR and Perron to fill voids until the kids develop. You named one top 6. Another a top 6 if healthy (which he hasn't been and isn't getting any younger). Plus one top 9. That's a hopeless situation my friend. Bailey: Isn't consistent and hasn't shown any signs of being a top 6 Baptiste: I think he's a great 4th line guy Smith: Prove it Olofsson: Same as above Wilson: Really should be 4th line, maybe 3rd O'Regan: Really prove it Nylander: Same as above That whole list is riddled with question marks and disappointments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 You named one top 6. Another a top 6 if healthy (which he hasn't been and isn't getting any younger). Plus one top 9. That's a hopeless situation my friend. Bailey: Isn't consistent and hasn't shown any signs of being a top 6 Baptiste: I think he's a great 4th line guy Smith: Prove it Olofsson: Same as above Wilson: Really should be 4th line, maybe 3rd O'Regan: Really prove it Nylander: Same as above That whole list is riddled with question marks and disappointments Exactly. Evan Rodriguez is the best LW currently on this roster. Let that sink in for a minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 I predict his rookie year will be this one If he's where IMHO he should start the year - on Eichel or O'Reilly's wing, would expect he'll get close to 40 points. Running the 3rd line from day 1, would expect 28-31 points. Linemates & usage matter tremendously. I don't know how he isn't firmly planted on Jack's wing this season. It just makes too much sense. Forcing him to play center while having to adjust to a whole slew of things could be too much. Let him freelance at wing for a season and evaluate after that. With that being said, they should give him some opportunity to be a center this year. Just do it in sheltered situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Exactly. Evan Rodriguez is the best LW currently on this roster. Let that sink in for a minute. You could argue that ROR is. Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen Jost - Kerfoot - Andrighetto Nieto - Soderberg - Comeau Wilson - Compher - Borque This is what turned the Avs around. Sabres comparable: ROR - Eichel - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo xxx - Girgensons - Baptiste Wilson - xxx - xxx Throw in UFA forward depth and our forward group is just as good as that one with the same structure. ROR - Eichel - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo Girgensons - Nash - Baptiste Wilson - Asplund - Perron The wet dream: ROR - Eichel - Baptiste Girgensons - Tavares - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo Asplund - Nash - Perron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 You could argue that ROR is. Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen Jost - Kerfoot - Andrighetto Nieto - Soderberg - Comeau Wilson - Compher - Borque This is what turned the Avs around. Sabres comparable: ROR - Eichel - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo xxx - Girgensons - Baptiste Wilson - xxx - xxx Throw in UFA forward depth and our forward group is just as good as that one with the same structure. ROR - Eichel - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo Girgensons - Nash - Baptiste Wilson - Asplund - Perron The wet dream: ROR - Eichel - Baptiste Girgensons - Tavares - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo Asplund - Nash - Perron Chi Chi can't be our 2nd line center Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 I predict his rookie year will be this one I don't know how he isn't firmly planted on Jack's wing this season. It just makes too much sense. Forcing him to play center while having to adjust to a whole slew of things could be too much. Let him freelance at wing for a season and evaluate after that. With that being said, they should give him some opportunity to be a center this year. Just do it in sheltered situations. Agree w/ all that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 You could argue that ROR is. Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen Jost - Kerfoot - Andrighetto Nieto - Soderberg - Comeau Wilson - Compher - Borque This is what turned the Avs around. Sabres comparable: ROR - Eichel - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo xxx - Girgensons - Baptiste Wilson - xxx - xxx Throw in UFA forward depth and our forward group is just as good as that one with the same structure. ROR - Eichel - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo Girgensons - Nash - Baptiste Wilson - Asplund - Perron The wet dream: ROR - Eichel - Baptiste Girgensons - Tavares - Reinhart Mittelstadt - Rodrigues - Okposo Asplund - Nash - Perron You could argue that, but you'd be wrong. O'Reilly is too good defensively to waste on the wing. Rodriguez is our best LW and has been since we traded Kane for O'Reagan and some kid who may not even be old enough to drive yet, depending on the protections of that future 1st round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 I expect Casey to start the season in Rochester. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 You could argue that, but you'd be wrong. O'Reilly is too good defensively to waste on the wing. Rodriguez is our best LW and has been since we traded Kane for O'Reagan and some kid who may not even be old enough to drive yet, depending on the protections of that future 1st round pick. ROR wouldn't suddenly stop playing defense on the wing. I could rewrite that as Eich-ROR-Reinhart if it made you feel better. But stacking a top line in particular when your best offensive player still loses his even strength matchups is not a guarantee of failure, especially if you lack forward depth, as evidenced in Colorado and Boston this season. We gave ROR Jay Beagle's role, which nobody in this league does with a top six center outside of Kopitar on occasion, and it gave us last place and one of the worst offenses out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Jay Beagle is a free agent right? Problem solved! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drunkard Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 ROR wouldn't suddenly stop playing defense on the wing. I could rewrite that as Eich-ROR-Reinhart if it made you feel better. But stacking a top line in particular when your best offensive player still loses his even strength matchups is not a guarantee of failure, especially if you lack forward depth, as evidenced in Colorado and Boston this season. We gave ROR Jay Beagle's role, which nobody in this league does with a top six center outside of Kopitar on occasion, and it gave us last place and one of the worst offenses out there. I realize he'd still be defensively responsible even as a winger, but wingers usually cover the opposing defenders while centers typically cover the other team's center or other forward. My main point was that I'd rather see Mittelstadt play LW to Eichel or O'Reilly than to see him play with Pominville and some other plug like Wilson or Bailey all season. The LW position is a bigger hole than 3rd line center so it's better to put a talented rookie there rather than sticking him on the third line with has beens/never weres. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 Jay Beagle is a free agent right? Problem solved! Can you image how good the Sabres will be down the middle next year? Tavares, Eichel, O'Reilly, & Beagle with Mittelstadt & Rodrigues ready to step in in a pinch. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted June 6, 2018 Report Share Posted June 6, 2018 (edited) You named one top 6. Another a top 6 if healthy (which he hasn't been and isn't getting any younger). Plus one top 9. That's a hopeless situation my friend. Bailey: Isn't consistent and hasn't shown any signs of being a top 6 Baptiste: I think he's a great 4th line guy Smith: Prove it Olofsson: Same as above Wilson: Really should be 4th line, maybe 3rd O'Regan: Really prove it Nylander: Same as above That whole list is riddled with question marks and disappointments Question marks, absolutely. However, we can’t continually do the TM two step and trade away prospects for vets. At some point you are going to have to give the kids a legit shot at the roster and see what you have. This is that season. I agree that Bailey, Nylander and Baptiste have disappointed so far, but Erod has done nothing but get better each year in the pros. Wilson was also a step up over Pouliot and company after being acquired. O’Regan and Smith have a similar pedigree to Erod, Rust and Sheary. At some point we are going to hit on one of these college kids. I like Smith’s chances. I also really like Olofsson’s game. If he makes the team and plays with Casey or Jack, he’ll score 20. One other thing you aren’t considering. You want complimentary skills on a line. Ruff used to refer to it as a scorer, a playmaker and a grinder/physical presense. If I’m building out this lineup 1) Erod Jack Okposo - Jack is the scorer, Erod the playmaker and Okposo is physical but can also do the other two jobs 2) Wilson ROR Reinhart - Wilson the grinder and ROR and Sam playing off each other like they did last year 3) Olofsson/Smith Casey Baptiste - Baptiste is the grinder, Casey the playmaker if with Olofsson or scorer if with Smith 4) Bailey O’Regan Pominville - effort with a little veteran touch. This is far from hopeless, it’s just a young group. This is what happens in a rebuild. I won’t complain if we sign a vet or two like Vanek or Neal. Edited June 6, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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