Jump to content

Sabres shots, this team might be better than we think


LGR4GM

Recommended Posts

http://buffalonews.com/2018/05/19/inside-the-sabres-shot-mentality-got-shot-full-of-holes/ - John Vogl

"Buffalo's overall shooting percentage was 7.7 percent. Of the 763 seasons put together by NHL teams since 1990, that ranks 745th."

 

First this was a good article. Second we had a historically bad shot percentage and lost something like 26 one goal games. Also it is encouraging to see the numbers by month from the bottom of the article. For the most part the team improved. The epic collapse of the defense and goalies should be noted. I think the depleted defense core and the garbage that was our goaltending both contributed to those declines. 

 

My main take away was we need more traffic and crashing the net and we need better shooters. Vogl mentions the better shooters part and I fully agree. Looking at the players with decent shot percentages, you can clearly see the talent drop. Baptiste was at 8.9 but then the next player is Nolan at 8.0 percent.  Only 6 players who played at least 20 games had a shot percentage above 9.0 and I am not counting Seth Griffiths 2 goals on 15 shots in that. 

 

Good article to look at. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Glad you commented because I had seen the article but did not bother to read it.

 

The part about opponent's scoring more over the season doesn't bother me as much.  I think any team in their situation is going to try a little less hard as they continue to lose. 

 

The defense is the biggest hole on the team but I think that started to shape up more as the season went on.  The emergency of Nelson, the show of Guhle, and generally being a bit more sound.  The biggest problem was the giant sieve in net.  I think a lot changes for this team next year.

 

Overall, the article reads that the team learned to play Housley's system and bought into it as time went on. They still didn't have enough talent to win but that should hopefully change this year.  Keeping youth down for a bunch of UFAs on 1 year deals is a good indicator that the team is going to struggle.  The hope has to be that the youth that gets brought into the lineup has the right talent to push the team forward.  At least on defense we saw strong evidence of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really highlights how terrible our talent up front is. Is there any doubt Mittelstadt and Nylander play here next year?

 

Mittelstadt will play in Buffalo for sure but I wouldn't be so sure about Nylander. He's done nothing to show he's ready at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mittelstadt will play in Buffalo for sure but I wouldn't be so sure about Nylander. He's done nothing to show he's ready at this point.

Yeah I made this comparison recently but this guy sees it the same way. Marek Zagrapan.

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2018/5/21/17374168/rochester-amerks-outlook-interview-with-keith-wozniak-buffalo-sabres

Edited by inkman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://buffalonews.com/2018/05/19/inside-the-sabres-shot-mentality-got-shot-full-of-holes/ - John Vogl

"Buffalo's overall shooting percentage was 7.7 percent. Of the 763 seasons put together by NHL teams since 1990, that ranks 745th."

 

First this was a good article. Second we had a historically bad shot percentage and lost something like 26 one goal games. Also it is encouraging to see the numbers by month from the bottom of the article. For the most part the team improved. The epic collapse of the defense and goalies should be noted. I think the depleted defense core and the garbage that was our goaltending both contributed to those declines. 

 

My main take away was we need more traffic and crashing the net and we need better shooters. Vogl mentions the better shooters part and I fully agree. Looking at the players with decent shot percentages, you can clearly see the talent drop. Baptiste was at 8.9 but then the next player is Nolan at 8.0 percent.  Only 6 players who played at least 20 games had a shot percentage above 9.0 and I am not counting Seth Griffiths 2 goals on 15 shots in that. 

 

Good article to look at. 

I agree, It's one of Vogl's better efforts. 

 

I have harped on shooting % for two years now, especially when it came to Kane and Eichel.  3 years in, Eichel has a shooting % of 10%.  That's not good enough. Kane's career is 9% (it was the same in Atl, Wpg and Buffalo).  We don't have any finishers 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think what might be missed is that the shooting percentage is a byproduct of both being told to shoot more as well as where they are shooting from.

 

The Sabres, over the season, changed their shots to get them more inside and as a result saw a trend up in shooting percentage.  Earlier they were shooting from anywhere and in many cases not often enough.

 

At least that's how I read it.

 

Eichel, I think, takes a lot of shots because he feels he has to take a lot of shots, good or bad.  Remember when he'd pass and everyone was losing their mind?

 

It's a balance.. really I want a guy like Eichel shooting when he thinks he has the shot and passing when he thinks someone else has it.  He has the ability to do that.  Someone like Kane definitely did not.. he was a shoot first mentality.  I perceive Eichel as being able to balance the two but when he's being forced into one or the other he's not playing his game.

 

And yea, we certainly need some people who can pot the puck.  You get the bottom 6 forwards putting in 4-8 more goals per year and that's 24-48 more goals scored... when losing games by 1 that makes a huge difference and I think I am being extremely conservative in the ask.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really highlights how terrible our talent up front is. Is there any doubt Mittelstadt and Nylander play here next year?

 

I doubt Nylander starts with Buffalo.  He looks terrible in decision making, his two way play is questionable and to be honest he doesn't shoot enough.  He needs to get stronger and learn the systems needed.  Right now he looks like a BUST. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://buffalonews.com/2018/05/19/inside-the-sabres-shot-mentality-got-shot-full-of-holes/ - John Vogl

"Buffalo's overall shooting percentage was 7.7 percent. Of the 763 seasons put together by NHL teams since 1990, that ranks 745th."

 

First this was a good article. Second we had a historically bad shot percentage and lost something like 26 one goal games. Also it is encouraging to see the numbers by month from the bottom of the article. For the most part the team improved. The epic collapse of the defense and goalies should be noted. I think the depleted defense core and the garbage that was our goaltending both contributed to those declines. 

 

My main take away was we need more traffic and crashing the net and we need better shooters. Vogl mentions the better shooters part and I fully agree. Looking at the players with decent shot percentages, you can clearly see the talent drop. Baptiste was at 8.9 but then the next player is Nolan at 8.0 percent.  Only 6 players who played at least 20 games had a shot percentage above 9.0 and I am not counting Seth Griffiths 2 goals on 15 shots in that. 

 

Good article to look at. 

 

That's not unlucky, that's refelctive of a poor system, where shot quantity is more important than shot quality.

 

Housley gets a free pass because the corsi numbers look better... but guess what... the only reason they're better is because his telling them to shoot from everywhere... which results in a low shooting percentage.

 

I'd like to see them generate more high quality scoring chances instead of just trying to bump up the shots-on-goal statistic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's not unlucky, that's refelctive of a poor system, where shot quantity is more important than shot quality.

 

Housley gets a free pass because the corsi numbers look better... but guess what... the only reason they're better is because his telling them to shoot from everywhere... which results in a low shooting percentage.

 

I'd like to see them generate more high quality scoring chances instead of just trying to bump up the shots-on-goal statistic.

Pi the article points out that we did get our share of scoring chances. In fact Vogl calculated that we took 32.1% of our shots from the prime scoring area which resulted in 77.5% of our goals. Our biggest issue was a terrible 10.5% shooting percentage for the season in that area. Vogl took this to mean that our shooters shot it directly into the goalie or we failed to get traffic in front of the net. I think both are true.

 

His research also illustrates our issues on D and in Net. Our opponents took about the same % (31.9) of shots from the prime scoring area but converted a staggering 13.6%.

 

While I’d agree that we always need more quality chances, unless we can find some guys who can actually finish and or create traffic, I’m not sure how the increase in chances will help us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...