Reinhart, The Force Awakens

[Derrico]

How much is he getting this offseason?  3 year @ $4 per?  $5?

[LGR4GM]

id guess 4mil

[GASabresIUFAN]

Pre-Dahlin, people may have had varying degrees of acceptance, but I think everyone would have understood a Sam-Hanifin type deal. We don't need that anymore. I don't see any purpose for trading Sam at this point - it's more valuable to us to keep what he is now and see if we can get him to be what he showed at the end of the year than it is to plug in his equal in current trade value.

 

  

 

Agreed!

 

How much is he getting this offseason?  3 year @ $4 per?  $5?

$100,000 per point from last year’s production for 3 years.

[Doohicksie]

  $100,000 per point from last year’s production for 3 years.

 

A good starting point, but that metric ($100k/point) is getting a bit stale.  It might be a little more than that.

[MattPie]

Hammiltoe implied on WGR this morning that Reinhart's results improved this season when he played more "his game" and less "Sabres system".

I'm not sure if that's a typo, but I love it.

[Assquatch]

I'm not sure if that's a typo, but I love it.

 

As an overweight guy who has done nothing more than "know" I have to drop some lbs, I have great respect for the amount of weight PH has been able to lose.

 

As a 12 year old with 32 years experience, I've always mentally referred to him as Hammiltoe.

[inkman]

I'm not sure if that's a typo, but I love it.

Agreed

[dudacek]

I'll go against the prevailing sentiment and say that I'd trade Reinhart in a second if the right deal is available. He's one of the few guys on the roster who could bring a good return in a trade, and in doing so would shake up the chemistry of this awful team. (Risto could bring a good return too, but defensemen are a lot harder to find than scoring wingers)

 

I look at Reinhart and just don't see the sort of winger that I see on the top teams (e.g., the 5 that are still alive for the Cup). He's a kid who has nice hands around the net for sure... but I don't see the grit and determination in him that I think it takes to win in the playoffs, when time and space are at a premium and the game becomes much more physical. I don't think he's all that great defensively (which is obviously why he isn't at Center). And, on some level, I think you either have that win at all costs "fire" or you don't. Does he have it?

 

The only real time we’ve seen Reinhart in those situations was when he was the leading scorer and top centre who was out there for the final two minutes of a one goal WJC final. He came through and won gold. Small sample size, for sure.

 

He’s certainly willing to take a beating to make plays, and can process better than most in high-speed, no-space situations. I remember when Columbus’ Ryan Johansen was called a soft, lazy prima Donna. I also know Sam has scored 50 more NHL points than Ryan did after three NHL seasons.

 

How much is he getting this offseason? 3 year @ $4 per? $5?

Drouin or Horvat signed 6-year $5.5 million deals in Sam’s position. Wennberg signed for six years at $4.9 million.

I can’t find better comparables.

 

If Sam signs for $4 million it will be on a one-year deal and the Sabres may next summer regret not getting him long-term at under $6 million now.

Edited May 9, 2018 by dudacek

[Drunkard]

So I was wrong and he will never be a NHL center. That said, what the hell happened with this guy after December? He flipped a switch and was fine. Reinhart is fine. He's never going to be fast, but he is quick. I think he looks faster than ROR for example. What do we do with him? Do we keep him or trade him? Is he the best RW we have and how do we value that? 

 

Offer him a 3 year bridge deal (around $12 million total) that leaves him an RFA at the end of it and keep him as a RW in the top 6 unless we have a ton of injuries at the center position. Keep him paired with O'Reilly or Eichel and find some more wingers for our adequate center depth to play with.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Alkoholist

[Beer]

The dude scores goals from the dirty areas. Keep him just for that.

[Iron Crotch]

The only real time we’ve seen Reinhart in those situations was when he was the leading scorer and top centre who was out there for the final two minutes of a one goal WJC final. He came through and won gold. Small sample size, for sure.

 

He’s certainly willing to take a beating to make plays, and can process better than most in high-speed, no-space situations. I remember when Columbus’ Ryan Johansen was called a soft, lazy prima Donna. I also know Sam has scored 50 more NHL points than Ryan did after three NHL seasons.

 

 

If your argument is that, like Joey, Samson should be traded at age 23 for a Seth Jones-type defenseman then I agree completely!

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

Reinhart: EVG= even strength goals, PPG= powerplay goals, EVA= even strength assists, PPA= powerplay assists

2015: 15 Evg, 8 Ppg / 17 Eva, 2 Ppa

 

2016: 8 Evg, 9 Ppg / 22 Eva, 8 Ppa

 

2017: 13 Evg, 12 Ppg / 16 Eva, 9 Ppa

 

The numbers make sense to me.  On the PP you start in your zone, and if they clear the zone the winger usually sits high near the opponents blue line, so a lack of speed doesn't hurt guys like Sam and O'Reilly when the Sabres have the man advantage. 

 

That said I thought Sam was doing all the little things right, and let me be specific instead of just making a general cliche. 

1) He won a lot of puck battles behind the net with his poke check and his combo poke-and-spin off move

2) He was in front of the net to pickup up the garbage, get deflections, and screen the goalie

3) His passing was much better in the 2H of the season.

 

I think a lot of his improvement came when the entire team finally became comfortable and implemented Housley's system in Jan/Feb.  The defense was quickly moving the puck to the forwards and did a great job of opening up the neutral zone.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Sam start off strong next season.       

Edited May 9, 2018 by SHAAAUGHT!!!

[nfreeman]

I need to see Reino start off next season strong, and clearly be part of the solution and not part of the problem, before I think of him as a core piece of this team's future. 

 

If he has another season like he did this year -- i.e. terrible when it counted and then a bunch of garbage-time points to juice his stats for the year -- then he looks a lot more like Derek Roy than Patrick Sharp.

[dudacek]

I need to see Reino start off next season strong, and clearly be part of the solution and not part of the problem, before I think of him as a core piece of this team's future. 

 

If he has another season like he did this year -- i.e. terrible when it counted and then a bunch of garbage-time points to juice his stats for the year -- then he looks a lot more like Derek Roy than Patrick Sharp.

Derek Roy would have looked a lot like Patrick Sharp if he was playing with Toews, Kane and Hossa.

Hell, he looked a lot like Patrick Sharp when he was playing with Briere, Drury and Vanek.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Derek Roy would have looked a lot like Patrick Sharp if he was playing with Toews, Kane and Hossa.

Hell, he looked a lot like Patrick Sharp when he was playing with Briere, Drury and Vanek.

 

Derek Roy ... much lambasted, but lets not forget that one magical year where he was better that a PPG guy.

[nfreeman]

Respectfully, I don't think Roysie EVER displayed an iota of the heart that is a big part of Sharp's game.

 

What Roysie was good at was putting up numbers in a low-pressure, favorable-matchup role -- i.e. as the center of the 3rd line when Briere's and Drury's lines drew the opponent's top defenders.

 

If that's all Reino can do -- it's better than nothing, but it's not a core role either.

[Drunkard]

Respectfully, I don't think Roysie EVER displayed an iota of the heart that is a big part of Sharp's game.

 

What Roysie was good at was putting up numbers in a low-pressure, favorable-matchup role -- i.e. as the center of the 3rd line when Briere's and Drury's lines drew the opponent's top defenders.

 

If that's all Reino can do -- it's better than nothing, but it's not a core role either.

 

I disagree. His 3 best seasons (production wise) were the 3 seasons after Briere and Drury had already left. Derek Roy produced just fine taking on the opponent's top defenders.

The bigger issue was once Connolly and Roy got bumped up to the top 6 we had nobody behind them to step into the roles they vacated once they got moved up the depth chart.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Alkoholist

[Thorner]

No.

He got 12 points in 15 games while Jack was out, 14 in the 15 games before, 11 in the 12 after.

Sam is the team’s best winger. His ice time and role is not really affected by who is and isn’t playing centre

A little late on this but a quick add: Reinhart’s best stretch was actually right there before Eichel got hurt, where he had those 14 points in the stretch of 11 games before the injury. He kept a solid pace, but it may have been even better had Jack stayed healthy.

[pi2000]

I think he gets moved. In his locker clean out interview he said that told himself "screw it, I'm just going to play my game" around mid-season. Sounds like a slight on Housley.

[GASabresIUFAN]

[quname=pi2000" post="1054781" timestamp="1526457690]

 

I think he gets moved. In his locker clean out interview he said that told himself "screw it, I'm just going to play my game" around mid-season. Sounds like a slight on Housley.

 

Why? Maybe Housley told him to play his game. Maybe Wowie said we need you to focus on using your hockey IQ. Make smart passes, get in front of the net. Possess the puck. Maybe Reinhart was trying to forecheck more or shoot all the time like Kane or play a speed game and both player and coach realized that wasn’t what he should be doing. I haven’t check the stats, but it seemed that Reinhart was skating nearly 20 minutes a night by seasons end up significantly over the first half. No coach increases your PT when you aren’t listening.

 

I think his statement is more about self motivation then anything else. It’s like saying I’ve got to be better or I’ve got to work harder.

[LGR4GM]

He also spoke about how his game fits with the team. 

[LGR4GM]

https://www.thescreen.co/single-post/2018/06/05/Turns-Out-Good-Players-Play-Better-With-Other-Good-Players-The-Sam-Reinhart-and-Ryan-OReilly-Story

"(Reinhart's) change in pure point production is quite extreme. In his first 40 games he had 13 points compared to his final 42 games where he had 37 points. That's a .556 change in points per game, or slightly more than half a point per game. That's a massive uptick in scoring and illustrates just how bad his first half was. He was on pace for roughly 26 points through the first 40 games, but finished with 50. "

[Derrico]

https://www.thescreen.co/single-post/2018/06/05/Turns-Out-Good-Players-Play-Better-With-Other-Good-Players-The-Sam-Reinhart-and-Ryan-OReilly-Story

"(Reinhart's) change in pure point production is quite extreme. In his first 40 games he had 13 points compared to his final 42 games where he had 37 points. That's a .556 change in points per game, or slightly more than half a point per game. That's a massive uptick in scoring and illustrates just how bad his first half was. He was on pace for roughly 26 points through the first 40 games, but finished with 50. "

Great article and thanks for posting.

 

So the crux of explaining Reinhart's change in production is he played more minutes with better players the second half of the year as the first.  Ofcourse that made a huge difference.  This is what worries me about Casey Mittlestadt.  Do we start him at wing or 3rd line Centre?  If it's Centre we don't even have 3 top 6 wingers let alone 9.  His stats WILL reflect this.  So don't everyone jump off a bridge if his stats aren't huge come year 1.

[LGR4GM]

You start him at Center because that is where he will play. He is ROR replacement, the future #2 center. 

[Derrico]

You start him at Center because that is where he will play. He is ROR replacement, the future #2 center. 

Maybe.  I wouldn't mind seeing him play half the season on wing to get his confidence up first.  Can you imagine a Sam, ROR, Casey second line?