Trade Speculation and Rumors 2018-19

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I think its ok, other boards are much worse than ours :P

 

Hey, there, I meant it.  This thread is great.

[Drunkard]

Seems that an O'Reilly trade is likely to happen after July 1st when his $7.5 million bonus payment hits (no team wants to trade for him until that happens). The rumor out of St. Louis was/is Colton Parayko and the Blues' 1st round pick last year Robert Thomas for O'Reilly and a defenseman (https://bleedinblue.com/2018/06/28/st-louis-blues-trading-colton-parayko-create-holes/).

 

I think if we were to get a guy like Pareyko on the right side that'd make Risto expendable. And, he could be traded for a scoring forward.

 

How would it make Ristolainen expendable? Is there some unknown league rule that the Sabres are only allowed to have one capable RHD on the roster at any given time? You do realize we need at least 3 of them who can play, right? 

[Doohicksie]

If Buffalo and Minnesota are looking at a deal, who are the key components going each way?

 

Could Coyle be the center we get to replace ROR if he is traded?

 

Would there be salary dumps going each way?  We take Ennis back if you take Bogo?

 

Could change of scenery help a couple of vets out?  We send Okposo and get back Niederreiter?

 

 

A couple of scenarios I would be interested in...

 

Trade 1-

Sabres send Okposo, Bogo, Nylander, and SJ 1st for Zucker, Coyle, and Ennis.

 

Trade 2- 

Sabres send Okposo, Nylander and McCabe for Coyle, Niederreiter, and Ennis.

 

Trade 3-

Sabres send Okposo, Bogo, Nylander and 2020 3rd for Coyle, Niederreiter, and Ennis.

 

None of those give me wood.

 

I don't think Okposo needs a change of scenery, I think he simply needs to start a season with a clean bill of health.  He didn't do that last year and it dogged him for most of the season.  He started to look like the player we want him to be at the end of the season.   I think we'll be glad we kept him if he stays put.

How would it make Ristolainen expendable? Is there some unknown league rule that the Sabres are only allowed to have one capable RHD on the roster at any given time? You do realize we need at least 3 of them who can play, right? 

 

:nana: I had the same thought.

[LGR4GM]

If Buffalo and Minnesota are looking at a deal, who are the key components going each way?

 

Could Coyle be the center we get to replace ROR if he is traded?

 

Would there be salary dumps going each way?  We take Ennis back if you take Bogo?

 

Could change of scenery help a couple of vets out?  We send Okposo and get back Niederreiter?

 

 

A couple of scenarios I would be interested in...

 

Trade 1-

Sabres send Okposo, Bogo, Nylander, and SJ 1st for Zucker, Coyle, and Ennis.

 

Trade 2- 

Sabres send Okposo, Nylander and McCabe for Coyle, Niederreiter, and Ennis.

 

Trade 3-

Sabres send Okposo, Bogo, Nylander and 2020 3rd for Coyle, Niederreiter, and Ennis.

Pass on all 3. 

[Randall Flagg]

Niederreiter and Okposo are very similar players on similar contracts.  Okposo is 5 years older.  We are relieving them of cap space by taking Ennis and his salary.

 

Niederreiter is due 21 million over the next four years.  Okposo is due 26 million in real money over next five years. 

 

Last five years...

 

Okposo- GP- 351, G- 101, A- 172, Pts- 273

 

Niederreiter- GP- 388, G- 101,  A- 104, Pts- 205

 

So statistically Okposo has been better, and I think going home to Minnesota definitely would spark his play.

They're looking to SHED Nino's contract, not trade it for a worse one. 

 

Nino is a far better player than Okposo right now, and Okposo getting to play on the PP to rack up secondary assists from Jack, ROR, Risto doesn't change that. Nino's ES production blows Kyle's out of the water and he is better than him at literally everything, especially skating.

Pass on all 3. 

Uh...why?

We couldn't GIVE Okposo away, with a 5th rounder on his hip. 

Each of those trades gives us 2 top 9 players who are better than Okposo.

In exchange for two contract dumps, one of which is among the worst in the league.

[GASabresIUFAN]

They're looking to SHED Nino's contract, not trade it for a worse one.

Nino is a far better player than Okposo right now, and Okposo getting to play on the PP to rack up secondary assists from Jack, ROR, Risto doesn't change that. Nino's ES production blows Kyle's out of the water and he is better than him at literally everything, especially skating.

Uh...why?We couldn't GIVE Okposo away, with a 5th rounder on his hip.

Each of those trades gives us 2 top 9 players who are better than Okposo.

In exchange for two contract dumps, one of which is among the worst in the league.

Actually it doesn’t. KO has 173 EV pts over the last 5 years and Nino 163. Nino does get a higher % of his pts at EV, but KO has out scored him 4 of the 5 years in total pts, has the same number of total goals, but KO is a much better playmaker. Edited June 28, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

Actually it doesn’t. KO has 173 EV pts over the last 5 years and Nino 170. Nino does get a higher % of his pts at EV, but KO has out scored him 4 of the 5 years in total pts, has the same number of total goals, but KO is a much better playmaker.

Okay, but Kyle Okposo five years ago or even three years ago is a completely different player from Kyle now, who despite playing with Jack Eichel and Ryan O'Reilly put up 3 even strength points in a 30 game stretch this year. He's dreadful. I've already fleshed this out with you though so I won't annoy with the details again. 

 

Five years ago Lucic was a beast playing in the cup finals, and McDavid wasn't even an NHL player, so no way would I trade Milan for Connor. 

Calling Okposo a good playmaker makes me question whether you watched a single game this year. There is nobody who lost the puck off his stick to the other team, and not to a Sabre, in the offensive zone, more than Kyle did.

In his last 145 games, Nino has 28 goals and 39 assists, for 67 points at ES. Kyle has 21+24=43 in 141 despite playing with Jack and ROR, and I think none of us here would swap Jack and ROR on this team for Koivu and Coyle or Staal and expect a better team. 

 

Nino can still skate and stickhandle at an NHL level, Kyle can do neither. 

Nino isn't one hit away from devastating medical implications. 

Nino's contract is one year less for a smaller cap hit, I think. Too lazy to check. Kyle's is one of the 5 worst in the NHL. 

Underlying stats suggest Nino helps drive possession while Okposo is a complete passenger.

[TrueBlueGED]

Nino is also only going to be 26 this year. Okposo is already 30.

 

Sorry for the interruption Flagg. Please continue.

[dejeanerret]

 

This was from Elliot Freedman's 30thoughts

The Charging Buffalo‏ @TheChargingBUF 3m3 minutes ago

More

The Charging Buffalo Retweeted Elliotte Friedman

Buffalo is in on Goalie, Carter Hutton from STL. Also mentions STL as a team circling around ROR as we have expected. They were hoping they’d get a meeting with Tavares and didn’t, looking for a C.

 

Per LeBrun

 

It should be noted, there is no deal in place and nothing can become official until Sunday; however, Hutton -- who is considered all but out the door in St. Louis -- appears to be in line to take over the No. 1 job for the Sabres. Initial indications out of the Queen City had Linus Ullmark taking over for the departing Robin Lehner. If the 31-year-old Hutton does land in Buffalo, it also likely means the end of Chad Johnson's second stint with the club.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/blues-carter-hutton-targeted-by-buffalo/

[WildCard]

Okay, but Kyle Okposo five years ago or even three years ago is a completely different player from Kyle now, who despite playing with Jack Eichel and Ryan O'Reilly put up 3 even strength points in a 30 game stretch this year. He's dreadful. I've already fleshed this out with you though so I won't annoy with the details again. 

 

Five years ago Lucic was a beast playing in the cup finals, and McDavid wasn't even an NHL player, so no way would I trade Milan for Connor. 

Calling Okposo a good playmaker makes me question whether you watched a single game this year. There is nobody who lost the puck off his stick to the other team, and not to a Sabre, in the offensive zone, more than Kyle did.

In his last 145 games, Nino has 28 goals and 39 assists, for 67 points at ES. Kyle has 21+24=43 in 141 despite playing with Jack and ROR, and I think none of us here would swap Jack and ROR on this team for Koivu and Coyle or Staal and expect a better team. 

 

Nino can still skate and stickhandle at an NHL level, Kyle can do neither. 

Nino isn't one hit away from devastating medical implications. 

Nino's contract is one year less for a smaller cap hit, I think. Too lazy to check. Kyle's is one of the 5 worst in the NHL. 

Underlying stats suggest Nino helps drive possession while Okposo is a complete passenger.

Man, you really, really hate Kyle Okposo

[GASabresIUFAN]

I’m not saying Nino isn’t a better gamble going forward then KO. Nor did I say KO was a good playmaker, I just said he was better the Nino.

 

Also KO, in his worst NHL season, as he overcame a serious concussion, still outscored Nino in total 44 to 32 and was virtually tied with Nino as EV 23 to 24.

 

I also had an error in my earlier math. Nino only had 163 pts at EV over the last 5 years not 170.

[Iron Crotch]

How would it make Ristolainen expendable? Is there some unknown league rule that the Sabres are only allowed to have one capable RHD on the roster at any given time? You do realize we need at least 3 of them who can play, right? 

 

Been saying on this board for years that I think Risto is overrated. In my opinion, he isn't that great in his own zone and never was. That and Housley doesn't like that he is the last one on the ice and first off of it at practice. IMHO, he's one of the few assets we have that could fetch a considerable return. And, if we're looking to shake up team chemistry, moving Risto would certainly do so.

[Randall Flagg]

 

Evidence that Nino pulls every single teammate of his into better hockey. (Up and to the right is good, black and blue being up-right relative to red suggests he makes players better

Okposo's chart: 

 

The colors flip because worse things happen to people when they play with Okposo than when they play with Sabres-replacement level AHL fodder instead. The only players whose situations improve when they get Okposo are Nolan and Larsson. The only player that gets worse with Nino is Prosser in a very small amount of minutes, which is probably because Prosser sucks and wasn't being sheltered when out with Nino, a guy who is defensively responsible. 

 

I know heat maps aren't very insightful, but let's look at these two: 

Kyle's offensive zone at the top. When he's on the ice our piss-poor shooting gets even worse, especially where he goes (RW), especially in danger areas. Because he loses the puck every single time he touches it. Defensively (bottom) the right side of the ice allows more shots with him out there than it does when he's not. 

 

Nino's: 

 

On the contrary, for Nino, the left side of the offensive zone sees far more action when he's in it and the left side of the d-zone gets shut down. 

 

There is no raw or nuanced breakdown that can tell you Okposo is anywhere close to Nino right now, which is why those deals up there are nuts. There is not a team in the league that wants Kyle Okposo, Buffalo included. He makes us worse and we cannot acquire anything that would make us better in a deal involving him, unless you somehow drug Chiarelli or Bergevin. We would have to attach things to him just to be blessed with the opportunity to remove the contract from the organization. 

[WildCard]

Two things here

 

A) B-e-a-utiful stuff Flagg. I am now in the Okposo...bunker? We need something for this. Actually laughed out loud when I saw Okposo's WOWY graph

 

B) Come on, you know you don't need to drug Chiarelli or Bergevin to take him

Edited June 28, 2018 by WildCard

[Randall Flagg]

I’m not saying Nino isn’t a better gamble going forward then KO. Nor did I say KO was a good playmaker, I just said he was better the Nino.

 

Also KO, in his worst NHL season, as he overcame a serious concussion, still outscored Nino in total 44 to 32 and was virtually tied with Nino as EV 23 to 24.

 

I also had an error in my earlier math. Nino only had 163 pts at EV over the last 5 years not 170.

You think it's fair to use raw ES point totals and not mention the fact that Okposo played like 15 more games?

 

Again, if you think Kyle did any driving on the power play, you didn't watch it. He picked up a boatload of secondary PP assists because Eichel and ROR are phenomenal PP players. His ES production per game, per minute, per everything is terrible and worse than Nino's in a season where he was also battling injury. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Been saying on this board for years that I think Risto is overrated. In my opinion, he isn't that great in his own zone and never was. That and Housley doesn't like that he is the last one on the ice and first off of it at practice. IMHO, he's one of the few assets we have that could fetch a considerable return. And, if we're looking to shake up team chemistry, moving Risto would certainly do so.

We have never seen a Sabres defense when Risto wasn’t virtually a one man D group. Adding Scandella helped some last year as it gave him a decent partner for a change, but has played nearly every hard minute for this team for 3 straight season. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see what he can do with a competent group around him featuring Scandella, Guhle, Dahlin and Parayko, instead of McCabe, Bogo, Baloo and Antipin?

[dejeanerret]

Okposo was on track for 23 goals/ 32 Assists / 55 points over 80 games before his injury in 2017.  That's consistent with his last season on the Island.  

 

Last year I was labeling Okposo as one of the biggest busts due to his plus/minus.  But after the locker room clean out interview where he said he was just getting his game back after the devastating injury I think the guy deserves some slack.  He did come on the last part of the season.   This year he will have a full summer of training (he didn't have that last year due to injury) so I'm willing to give him one more year.

 

With that said, for me Okposo's situation gives me pause when it comes to FA like JVR.  He's 29 and probably looking for a similar 6 year deal.  Too many inflated contracts with players in their 30's when they lose speed is no Bueno.  JVR may have 3-4 good season left, and once it  goes down hill it's another contract we'll have to carry.

Edited June 28, 2018 by dejeanerret

[Sabel79]

I'm willing to give KO another shot this coming season, where he didn't spend time over the summer in an ICU and is going to show up to camp healthy before binning him.

 

It's not like he's going anywhere anyway, no matter what happens.

[dejeanerret]

We have never seen a Sabres defense when Risto wasn’t virtually a one man D group. Adding Scandella helped some last year as it gave him a decent partner for a change, but has played nearly every hard minute for this team for 3 straight season. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see what he can do with a competent group around him featuring Scandella, Guhle, Dahlin and Parayko, instead of McCabe, Bogo, Baloo and Antipin?

 

Agreed.  I don't think you can consider a 6'4 218 lb, 23 year old who has only missed 16 games the last four seasons and has led your defense in scoring playing insane minutes as over rated.

 

The only possible issue is him buying into Housley's system.  With that said you pair him with a guy like Dahlin and he turns from the Dman your hoping carries the play to the guy who lays back and covers the zone while allowing Dahlin to do his thing.  That might be a better role for him.

[pi2000]

We have never seen a Sabres defense when Risto wasn’t virtually a one man D group. Adding Scandella helped some last year as it gave him a decent partner for a change, but has played nearly every hard minute for this team for 3 straight season. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see what he can do with a competent group around him featuring Scandella, Guhle, Dahlin and Parayko, instead of McCabe, Bogo, Baloo and Antipin?

 

The Risto apologists need to understand something....   He's had the same built-in excuse for his entire career... that his assignment is simply too difficult considering his age.   

This season is it... no more excuses.    He is what the statistics say he is.     

[Randall Flagg]

Kyle Okposo: 
P/60 is 1.29

Primary points/60 is 0.98

The percentage of goals for while he was on the ice is tank bad: 37%

His expected-goals-for (which, if you are ever going to look at numbers to compare players, this one has the best predictive power of any number that exists and that is statistical fact) is 42%

 

Nino: 
P/60 is 1.62 in a down year, Primary points/60 is better than Kyle's total at 1.39, his GF% is 62% and xGF is 56%

He drives possession, plays legitimately good defense, and out-produces Kyle when you account for games and minutes and anything other than raw numbers with your eyes closed to how many games were played. 

We'd be buying low on Nino because they also want to dump Ennis and he's in a down year with every indication being that he'll go back up to being a 25 goal scorer with 50+ points, almost all at ES, which is our biggest need in improvement, ES offense. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

You think it's fair to use raw ES point totals and not mention the fact that Okposo played like 15 more games?

 

Again, if you think Kyle did any driving on the power play, you didn't watch it. He picked up a boatload of secondary PP assists because Eichel and ROR are phenomenal PP players. His ES production per game, per minute, per everything is terrible and worse than Nino's in a season where he was also battling injury.

 

I’m not disagreeing with your premise that Buffalo would be better with Nino then KO. However, I think it’s a little unfair using last season as a reference point for KO when I think last season was a lost year for KO because of the concussion. I’d like to see the charts on KO for 2016-17 when he was healthy. I understand the worry that last year is the player KO will be going forward and I agree no one is taking him off our hands.

[Randall Flagg]

I’m not disagreeing with your premise that Buffalo would be better with Nino then KO. However, I think it’s a little unfair using last season as a reference point for KO when I think last season was a lost year for KO because of the concussion. I’d like to see the charts on KO for 2016-17 when he was healthy. I understand the worry that last year is the player KO will be going forward and I agree no one is taking him off our hands.

Happily - 

Kyle Okposo, 16-17:

12 G, 10A for 22 PTS at ES in 65 games. .33 PPG at ES

1.2 P/60, 1.01 Primary P/60

46.9 CF% (+0.8% relative to his team without him)

49.2 GF% (+0.5% relative to his team without)

47.0 xGF%

 

Played with ROR and an equal amount of Kane, Reinhart, Eichel, and Moulson

 

Nino, 16-17:

17G, 26A for 43 PTS at ES in 82 games, .52 PPG at ES

2.29 P/60, 1.94 Primary P/60

55.4 CF% (+7.8% relative to his team without)

59.8 GF% (+5.7% relative to team without)

59.0 xGF%

 

Played with Eric Staal, Charlie Coyle the most 

 

The heat maps are unavailable for the previous year without a subscription to Hockey Viz, but the with/without are as follows: 

A complete mixed bag with bad leanings.

 

Nino: 

 

Again consensus elevation. 

 

This is the most fair season to use because every number comes with usual linemates, over 60 games, and play without injury (Okposo was completely healthy until the end of the season and played no games after being out the first time)

 

And since Okposo's injury, he's fallen and will likely continue to fall, as I'm still waiting on the first slow, lumbering winger to ever get their legs back, and that's without the precipitous and looming injury situation Kyle has. He's a different player from last year and a far, far different player from 3-5 years ago, and there isn't a shred of evidence that suggests he'll get his feet back to anything better than when they were his weakness last year, and he also has to pull his hands and processing speed back up to competence at the same time. It just isn't likely and it's quite unfortunate for him. 

Man, you really, really hate Kyle Okposo

He's my least favorite piece of the organization now that Moulson has been vanquished (Lehner too) and Bogosian has only 2 years left (1 now?) 

Edited June 28, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Derrico]

Okposo was on track for 23 goals/ 32 Assists / 55 points over 80 games before his injury in 2017.  That's consistent with his last season on the Island.  

 

Last year I was labeling Okposo as one of the biggest busts due to his plus/minus.  But after the locker room clean out interview where he said he was just getting his game back after the devastating injury I think the guy deserves some slack.  He did come on the last part of the season.   This year he will have a full summer of training (he didn't have that last year due to injury) so I'm willing to give him one more year.

 

With that said, for me Okposo's situation gives me pause when it comes to FA like JVR.  He's 29 and probably looking for a similar 6 year deal.  Too many inflated contracts with players in their 30's when they lose speed is no Bueno.  JVR may have 3-4 good season left, and once it  goes down hill it's another contract we'll have to carry.

Pi, is that you :nana:

[Randall Flagg]

So I must really hate Tim Murray