Trade Speculation and Rumors 2018-19

[WildCard]

Wait you value RoR > Reinhart, Flagg?

[Randall Flagg]

Wait you value RoR > Reinhart, Flagg?

Very much so. 

[WildCard]

Very much so. 

You crazy man

[LGR4GM]

Reinhart makes those who play with him better. Risto... kinda does? 

[Randall Flagg]

You crazy man

Not even a little bit. ROR is closer to Bergeron than he is to Reinhart by a fair amount. Every ounce of underlying stats shows that his production stands to increase as the team gets more talented around him, and even WITH that fact he put up 61 points in the most bizarrely tough usage situation I've ever seen a forward go through. He had more defensive zone starts per game than any player since the stat has been tracked, won more faceoffs than any player in the history of the league, and is ferociously smart and tenacious defensively, while also being our second best offensive player by a large margin. Reinhart's chores on the ice were cake compared to ROR and he still barely crept up to 50 points on the last day of the season. 

 

People get on ROR's contract while forgetting the cap raising. Matthews is about to get 12 million. Kane just got essentially ROR's deal. Johansen is worse than ROR and signed a year ago for 8 mil a year. That contract is perfect now and is going to be a steal in a year. He's got 5 years left, and his game doesn't rely on speed and physicality, it relies on his brain, which means there's a great chance that he's the exact same player 5 years from now when it ends. If we get our head out of our ass and play him as any great coach would, like the 2nd best offensive piece on an offensively starved team, with a dash of Quenneville-creativity to also make use of his defensive abilities, or like Bergeron with a stacked top line, he could easily be a 70 point Selke winner. He is coaching tweaks from winning the Selke. Reinhart is a disaster at center, and a nice cerebral wing who is coming off of a 50 point career-high season. 

 

ROR has more value and it isn't really close. 5 years of guaranteed elite two way play and very good offense from the most important position on the ice has more value than potential, especially low-ceiling potential from a 22 year old in the case of Reinhart. 

[dudacek]

Fans have been sold hope based on the kids by bad teams for so long they are blinded by shiny new toys and what players could be.

NHL GMs care about two things: winning the cup and keeping their jobs.

 

For any contender, of course O’Reilly is better than Reinhart.

 

I laugh at the Blues fans who are dead-set against trading Robert Thomas for O’Reiily.

Really? Thomas’s ceiling is O’Reilly and there is a fairly decent chance he never hits that.

 

If he does, it will be four or five years from now, when the window of your Tarasenko/Schwartz/Pietrangelo core is closing.

If I was a Blues fan, I would be salivating at a chance to acquire the player the stature and age of O’Reilly to fill my biggest need without giving up a roster player from my pretty good team.

 

Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn are very good players and Mike Richards is out of hockey.

The LA Kings do not regret that trade for one second.

Edited June 12, 2018 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

I don't agree Reinhart has a low ceiling. 

[WildCard]

Not even a little bit. ROR is closer to Bergeron than he is to Reinhart by a fair amount. Every ounce of underlying stats shows that his production stands to increase as the team gets more talented around him, and even WITH that fact he put up 61 points in the most bizarrely tough usage situation I've ever seen a forward go through. He had more defensive zone starts per game than any player since the stat has been tracked, won more faceoffs than any player in the history of the league, and is ferociously smart and tenacious defensively, while also being our second best offensive player by a large margin. Reinhart's chores on the ice were cake compared to ROR and he still barely crept up to 50 points on the last day of the season. 

 

People get on ROR's contract while forgetting the cap raising. Matthews is about to get 12 million. Kane just got essentially ROR's deal. Johansen is worse than ROR and signed a year ago for 8 mil a year. That contract is perfect now and is going to be a steal in a year. He's got 5 years left, and his game doesn't rely on speed and physicality, it relies on his brain, which means there's a great chance that he's the exact same player 5 years from now when it ends. If we get our head out of our ass and play him as any great coach would, like the 2nd best offensive piece on an offensively starved team, with a dash of Quenneville-creativity to also make use of his defensive abilities, or like Bergeron with a stacked top line, he could easily be a 70 point Selke winner. He is coaching tweaks from winning the Selke. Reinhart is a disaster at center, and a nice cerebral wing who is coming off of a 50 point career-high season. 

 

ROR has more value and it isn't really close. 5 years of guaranteed elite two way play and very good offense from the most important position on the ice has more value than potential, especially low-ceiling potential from a 22 year old in the case of Reinhart. 

He's also a lot younger, faster, and could easily become RoR. He's already been more consistent than RoR was at this point in his career. Saying he can't play center and implying he therefore may never will is just a bananas take. Or maybe you weren't implying that, but he's not limited to what you call a cerebral winger

 

Is he better now for a contender? Sure. For a team like us? Reinhart has more value

Edited June 12, 2018 by WildCard

[nfreeman]

Reino is substantially slower than ROR (who is on the slow side himself).

 

I'll see you in the other thread, mister.

[Randall Flagg]

I don't agree Reinhart has a low ceiling. 

How could you disagree when I neglected to even mention what I meant by that?

[dudacek]

All that said, Reinhart and Hanifin are generally undervalued because of the opposite of shiney new toy syndrome.

Noah Hanifin had more NHL points at age 20 than Brandon Montour has today at age 24. There are people who think Montour is a budding star and Hanifin a disappointment.

 

It’s all about development curves and perception. Young players get better, but if they arrive early and don’t make a big splash, they get tarnished in the eyes of fans.

Nolan Patrick got 30 points as an 19-year-old yet there are 10 fan bases including ours who wouldn’t trade their 2017 pick for him because their guy tore up junior and Patrick wasn’t an immediate star. They ignore the fact Patrick was playing in the NHL!

 

For the Sabres, Reinhart is better to keep than O’Reilly because of age and upside.

He’s just nowhere near the player right now.

[Randall Flagg]

He's also a lot younger, faster, and could easily become RoR. He's already been more consistent than RoR was at this point in his career. Saying he can't play center and implying he therefore may never will is just a bananas take. Or maybe you weren't implying that, but he's not limited to what you call a cerebral winger

 

Is he better now for a contender? Sure. For a team like us? Reinhart has more value

I don't think you realize how many prospects there are that "could easily become ROR" when compared to the number of players in the league (There are roughly 6 right now, over the course of the last 5 years) that actually become an ROR.

[sweetlou]

ETA until somebody proposes Okposo for Lucic because of toughness?

So if Edmonton offered Lucic and Klefbom for Okposo, Nylander and McCabe do you turn it down?

[spndnchz]

So if Edmonton offered Lucic and Klefbom for Okposo, Nylander and McCabe do you turn it down?

Edmonton is hoping to get more than a bag of pucks for Lucic at this point. They’ve inferred it already.

[dudacek]

I do Nylander and McCabe for Klefbom.

But I prefer Okposo to Lucic as a player and despise Lucic.

[Randall Flagg]

Okposo had that incredibly anemic stretch last year, but Lucic's was worse - I believe he had 1 goal in 30 games or something like that...with more than half of those games being played next to McDavid. 

[LGR4GM]

All that said, Reinhart and Hanifin are generally undervalued because of the opposite of shiney new toy syndrome.

Noah Hanifin had more NHL points at age 20 than Brandon Montour has today at age 24. There are people who think Montour is a budding star and Hanifin a disappointment.

 

It’s all about development curves and perception. Young players get better, but if they arrive early and don’t make a big splash, they get tarnished in the eyes of fans.

Nolan Patrick got 30 points as an 19-year-old yet there are 10 fan bases including ours who wouldn’t trade their 2017 pick for him because their guy tore up junior and Patrick wasn’t an immediate star. They ignore the fact Patrick was playing in the NHL!

 

For the Sabres, Reinhart is better to keep than O’Reilly because of age and upside.

He’s just nowhere near the player right now.

See Alex Nylander. It's a form of recency bias.

Okposo had that incredibly anemic stretch last year, but Lucic's was worse - I believe he had 1 goal in 30 games or something like that...with more than half of those games being played next to McDavid.

1 in his last 48 I think it was.

Reino is substantially slower than ROR (who is on the slow side himself).

 

I'll see you in the other thread, mister.

What? How is Reinhart substantially slower than ROR?

[That Aud Smell]

I think Jack has an older sister named Jessie. Cannot comment on whether or not they get along :P

 

I am an idiot.

 

Lesson: When the Wiki preview page on a Google page of search results (for a search re Noah Hanifin) prominently lists Noah Hanifin's siblings, but a similar search results page (for Jack Eichel) does NOT Jack Eichel's siblings, that does not mean Eichel doesn't have a sibling. 

[nfreeman]

What? How is Reinhart substantially slower than ROR?

 

Well, obviously I have zero numbers to back up my assertion, but to my eye Reino is substantially slower, both in smaller spaces where quickness is needed to get to a puck 1-2 strides away, and in longer sprints.  I appreciate that YMMV.

[LGR4GM]

I don't agree in the slightest.

[North Buffalo]

Well, obviously I have zero numbers to back up my assertion, but to my eye Reino is substantially slower, both in smaller spaces where quickness is needed to get to a puck 1-2 strides away, and in longer sprints. I appreciate that YMMV.

Quicker, I disagree, ROR is more skilled and tougher though, I think Sam is developing in the corners... he just needs to keep working at it. ROR is a moose in the corners, better shielder. Sam has moments and have seen him occasionally find space, but ROR creates space with his body. Also, Sam does have another gear up the wing and only just started to show it late last season. He plays too much under control, needs to skate with more abandon that he has shown he can but rarely. More mental imo. Edited June 12, 2018 by North Buffalo

[dudacek]

What? How is Reinhart substantially slower than ROR?

Freeman has Reinhart confused with Brad Miller and Dave Andreychuk.

You aren’t going to change his mind on this one.

[pi2000]

Hanifin was a -20.  His TRpm is around a -12.    

 

Translation... he's a significant liability.  DO NOT WANT

Edited June 12, 2018 by pi2000

[Randall Flagg]

Hanifin was a -20.  His TRpm is around a -12.    

 

Translation... he's a significant liability.  DO NOT WANT

 

To actually look at all of his stats: 

The normal stats are pretty good. 32 points from the back end at 21 years old is great, and that number could well increase going forward. He gets a reasonable amount of ice time and produces mostly at even strength. Some of his possession stats are as follows:

P/60: 1.07

CF%: 55.92%

GF%: 45%

xGF%: 54.77%

PDO: 97.45%

 

I picked these particular ones out for a reason. First, that P/60 is very, very good for a defenseman. It's roughly 25th in the league, for defenseman that played at least half of a season. PK Subban is right underneath him, and Seth Jones is right above him in that regard. 

 

Second, while he is incredibly sheltered, he puts it to good use - that corsi percentage is the fourth best in the league of any D that has played at least 500 minutes. Now, Carolina is the best possession team in the league, so it's worth noting that - he's a good piece to fit the system, but the system helps that out just as much. And just like last year and the year before, the reason they have been let down despite this is evident in that PDO - usually PDOs between 98 and 102 aren't really worth looking at, but his is quite low and has never been higher than 98.2%, because the last three years, you probably cannot find a team with worse goaltending over the stretch between Ward, Lack, and Darling. They don't have a lot of talented forwards either, which has hindered their ability to capitalize on the fact that they regularly outshoot and outchance the opponents. 

 

Third, this leads to his low percentage of goals scored while he's on the ice being for his team, which explains his +/-. But when you weight where shots are coming from, the quality of shots, with league shooting percentages from those areas, which is what xGF% is, you see that with league average shooting and save percentage, he would actually be on the ice for more goals than goals against, which is good - so it's not that he's "even failing in sheltered minutes", he's playing in such a way that is conducive to succeeding in those minutes, but the results aren't there yet, and that can largely be traced to events outside of his control. 

 

Nuance is so gay 

[WildCard]

Nuance is so gay

Indeed