Trade Speculation and Rumors 2018-19

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, shrader said:

You've dug a bit too deeply on this one.  I'm not sure how exploring the center trade market has morphed into sending multiple pieces for an O'Reilly clone.  I'll give you credit though, you've always been very consistent with the value you place on the team's prospects and picks.  I really wish we could quantify this stuff, figure out the success rate of a poster's favorite prospects.  I'd call it the Catenacci scale.

I'd trade thompson, Nylander I would wait on. 

As for other prospects, I've gotten better over the years. 

[Marions Piazza]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Also teams aren't trading those ROR type of players. I would target a younger guy. Mitchell Stephens for example in Tampa. Trade them for him and a cap dump while giving them a First or whatever. 

Dunno if we could tak on a cap dump without moving another roster player, i think the Sabres only have something like $1.3M in space right now

[shrader]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd trade thompson, Nylander I would wait on. 

As for other prospects, I've gotten better over the years. 

I'd trade any of them depending on what the return in.  That's as far as I'm willing to go though, I'm not going to suggest potential targets.  It's not something I have the time and resources to explore.

Physics has his conversion factors for what WHL/NCAA/AHL stats would predict at the NHL level.  We need similar conversion factors for point predictions from every poster.  Yours might be something like 0.8 while someone like freeman would be at 1.5.

[TrueBlueGED]

42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sure you can, but if we are trading for younger ROR giving up multiple pieces to do it seems short sighted when Mittelstadt is supposed to develop into our 2nd line center.

Remember when you proclaimed we didn't need ROR because we had Girgensons? Learn from your mistakes, my friend! 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, shrader said:

I'd trade any of them depending on what the return in.  That's as far as I'm willing to go though, I'm not going to suggest potential targets.  It's not something I have the time and resources to explore.

Physics has his conversion factors for what WHL/NCAA/AHL stats would predict at the NHL level.  We need similar conversion factors for point predictions from every poster.  Yours might be something like 0.8 while someone like freeman would be at 1.5.

When it comes to draft prospects, I am actually far better than Nfreeman. 

Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

Remember when you proclaimed we didn't need ROR because we had Girgensons? Learn from your mistakes, my friend! 

I did. We didn't get anywhere with ROR so it was a wash. 

[TrueBlueGED]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

When it comes to draft prospects, I am actually far better than Nfreeman. 

I did. We didn't get anywhere with ROR so it was a wash. 

No, it wasn't a wash, you were spectacularly wrong in your assessment that Girgensons would become O'Reilly. You dug your heels too hard on potential, and you might be doing the same here. To dismiss trading a late 1st out of hand because you might win the (figurative) lottery and snag a Barzal is simply digging in too strongly again. 

[LGR4GM]

And I admitted that I was wrong about ROR but if you are just going to use that going forward we can play that game. "Hey Liger said something, just say he was wrong about ROR HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHQAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" 

Late first round picks I have been right about... Barzal , Boeser, Jokiharju. If we want to list my failures, feel like we should list my successes too. 

[shrader]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

No, it wasn't a wash, you were spectacularly wrong in your assessment that Girgensons would become O'Reilly. You dug your heels too hard on potential, and you might be doing the same here. To dismiss trading a late 1st out of hand because you might win the (figurative) lottery and snag a Barzal is simply digging in too strongly again. 

The reasons he suggested for not moving anyone were essentially "what if each player and pick pans out".  That's exactly why life would be so much easier if we had the poster conversion factor (yes, I know it's BS).  Some people have a more rosy outlook when it comes to this stuff.  There's nothing wrong with that as long as you realize exactly who the optimists and pessimists are.

And yeah, I realize that my point of view may be the most useless of them all, suggesting that there's a price that is right, but not speculating as to what that is.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, shrader said:

The reasons he suggested for not moving anyone were essentially "what if each player and pick pans out".  That's exactly why life would be so much easier if we had the poster conversion factor (yes, I know it's BS).  Some people have a more rosy outlook when it comes to this stuff.  There's nothing wrong with that as long as you realize exactly who the optimists and pessimists are.

And yeah, I realize that my point of view may be the most useless of them all, suggesting that there's a price that is right, but not speculating as to what that is.

That's the problem. You suggested the price which we know is correct because it just f##king happened without picking even a range of targets. So yes, I would rather keep Nylander, 2 depth forwards, and a 1st than trade for a complete unknown. Sorry I forgot, I said the ROR thing so I am just stupid. Where's Taro to call me Flounder?

[LGR4GM]

I think what this has taught me is that I should not post anything in the draft thread ever again. My opinions and knowledge are bad because of ROR is better than Zemgus. I mean I was 100% correct about Lehner v Boeser but f##k it, the only thing that matters is that I disliked ROR. So no draft analysis it is. Don't want to go 3-4 years down the road and continually hear about it. 

[shrader]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

That's the problem. You suggested the price which we know is correct because it just f##king happened without picking even a range of targets. So yes, I would rather keep Nylander, 2 depth forwards, and a 1st than trade for a complete unknown. Sorry I forgot, I said the ROR thing so I am just stupid. Where's Taro to call me Flounder?

If the team is making the particular package you're suggesting, it's not for an unknown though.  If they're in that trade market, they're targeting specific people, and most likely someone with an established NHL track record.  They're the ones doing their homework, not me, and I trust that they've done it.  The moves so far suggest that they know what they're looking for.  Now if they were to move your hypothetical package for picks or prospects, ok, now you're getting the unknown return.  But at this point, the only unknown I see there is what Buffalo would be shipping out.

You've merged a few different conversations here, which is fine.  I'll just mention that when I say any of this, I'm talking about adding an additional 2nd-3rd line center.  I happen to think that could be done at a lower price than what you're suggesting.

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's the problem. You suggested the price which we know is correct because it just f##king happened without picking even a range of targets. So yes, I would rather keep Nylander, 2 depth forwards, and a 1st than trade for a complete unknown. Sorry I forgot, I said the ROR thing so I am just stupid. Where's Taro to call me Flounder?

WtF dude?.   I don't have a horse in this race & have no intention of joining back into the conversation at present.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

56 minutes ago, shrader said:

"Supposed to" is a big phrase there.  That is no guarantee, but even if he does, center is the position where I want more depth than anywhere else.  I'll listen to that including defense in that debate, but that's where I fall personally on this one.

That extra depth would also allow for Mittelstadt to grow into his role.

Is it really that big a phrase?

Casey is already developing nicely and may not be where some hoped at the moment, but by all accounts he is not a liability. I really don't see the need for anything drastic and like LGR4 said we have our pipeline.

Also, pushing Casey to a 3rd line C could hurt more than help. Personally, I'd like to build our depth through the draft or see what's available in FA.

It's great being able to have these discussions and actually not have a real pressing desire or need....winning does that kinda thing.

[Hoss]

The marriage to “first line” “second line” and beyond is something hockey fans will never shake. If you acquire another center is barely changes anything for Mittelstadt. Sure, you can “protect” him a little more but if, over the next few years, he develops as we hope he can easily get top two or three center minutes on a team that’d be able to run three good lines out there.

I think a deep team competing into the playoffs would be ideal for his development.

[Weave]

7 minutes ago, Hoss said:

The marriage to “first line” “second line” and beyond is something hockey fans will never shake. If you acquire another center is barely changes anything for Mittelstadt. Sure, you can “protect” him a little more but if, over the next few years, he develops as we hope he can easily get top two or three center minutes on a team that’d be able to run three good lines out there.

I think a deep team competing into the playoffs would be ideal for his development.

Yup.  especially the last sentence.

And there is also the flexibility to move a surplus center to wing as well.

[dudacek]

If I recall, didn’t Derek Roy and Tim Connolly have their best seasons playing with Danny Briere, Chris Drury and Paul,Gaustad also at centre?

Last time I checked Casey was 4th in ice time amongst Sabre centres.

Edited November 16, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

If I recall, didn’t Derek Roy and Tim Connolly have their best seasons playing with Danny Briere, Chris Drury and Paul,Gaustad also at centre?

Last time I checked Casey was 4th in ice time amongst Sabre centres.

Briere played a great deal of RW that season with TC at center.  

[Weave]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Briere played a great deal of RW that season with TC at center.  

#can'thavetoomanycenters

[Taro T]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

If I recall, didn’t Derek Roy and Tim Connolly have their best seasons playing with Danny Briere, Chris Drury and Paul,Gaustad also at centre?

Last time I checked Casey was 4th in ice time amongst Sabre centres.

As he should be at this point.  He runs the 3rd offensive line (or 2nd 2 way line as neither the Rodrigues nor Mittelstadt lines have brung  all that much offense YET) & is still learning the NHL game.

Which just reinforces a point that's been made often here, just because your line is officially the "2nd" or "3rd" (or even 4th for that matter) based on typical usage doesn't mean the line will will get that level of ice time.

The Briere & Drury lines were 1A & 1B in ice time but Drury's line was used as a checking line that could also bring offense & the RAV line definitely was 3rd in ice time but was used as the 2nd scoring line.

On this team, Eichel's line is the clear #1 (even though it typically has used the 3rd or 4th best RW) & the other 3 all could be listed as 2nd depending on how the line rank is defined.

[Huckleberry]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If they are next year or this year, as long as we use them. Our prospect pool is still not where I want it to be. Taking 4 players in the first round in the next 2 years could net us 4 players for the top 6 forwards or top 4 def.  Maybe we will get a Pastrnak or a Barzal or a Jokiharju. We will know a lot more about these years draft class after January when midterms come out. That is really when things start to solidify and you can find good write ups. I really hope the Athletic has some good draft prospect coverage. 

Ah but what you are saying we probably won't find out until 2021.   Barzal and the other 1st round wonders came popping a year after their draft.

[TrueBlueGED]

11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

And I admitted that I was wrong about ROR but if you are just going to use that going forward we can play that game. "Hey Liger said something, just say he was wrong about ROR HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHQAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" 

Late first round picks I have been right about... Barzal , Boeser, Jokiharju. If we want to list my failures, feel like we should list my successes too. 

So, this was taken quite a bit differently than I intended. My point, succinctly, is that you're way too certain about the value of picks/prospects with innate high uncertainty. 

5 hours ago, Hoss said:

The marriage to “first line” “second line” and beyond is something hockey fans will never shake. If you acquire another center is barely changes anything for Mittelstadt. Sure, you can “protect” him a little more but if, over the next few years, he develops as we hope he can easily get top two or three center minutes on a team that’d be able to run three good lines out there.

I think a deep team competing into the playoffs would be ideal for his development.

Agreed. I've written before that "top-6 v bottom-6" is a pretty antiquated notion, and you really want 3 lines you can roll without a ton of discrimination. 

[...]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Agreed. I've written before that "top-6 v bottom-6" is a pretty antiquated notion, and you really want 3 lines you can roll without a ton of discrimination. 

YES! Your wording is perfect, too.  

[Weave]

12 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

So, this was taken quite a bit differently than I intended. My point, succinctly, is that you're way too certain about the value of picks/prospects with innate high uncertainty. 

Agreed. I've written before that "top-6 v bottom-6" is a pretty antiquated notion, and you really want 3 lines you can roll without a ton of discrimination. 

Interesting counterpoint from Sportsnet.  apparently super lines at the expense of line depth is the NHL strategy du jour.

Quote

 

Mark Spector‏Verified account @SportsnetSpec 54m54 minutes ago

Mark Spector Retweeted Sportsnet

“You run your Varsity line out there, then three shifts of junior varsity, then the big guys again. That’s where the game is going.” - scout.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-consider-loading-nhl-leans-theory-super-lines/

Quote

 

Are the new “super lines” the way of the future?

“It looks like it,” Peters said this week. “Teams are having unreal success with it — Boston, Colorado. You watch those kids play, and it makes sense. It makes it easier, as a coach, to get those people consistent ice time.

 

Quote

as the game changes and player fitness levels continue to rise, perhaps that 20-man team concept that has defined hockey for so many years is becoming antiquated as well. With TV time outs and shorter shifts for the other lines, maybe your best forwards can all play 25 minutes now.

One line of studs and 3 lines of role players.  the new NHL wave.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Weave

[GASabresIUFAN]

Hey Duda, Cernak, the D you doubted would play in the NHL from the terrible McNabb and 2 2nds for Fasching and Delo, made his NHL debut for TB against the Sabres.  

[Hoss]

So... the Buffalo News did a profile piece on Patrick Kane as he turns 30. A little weird, but it was a reminder of the days we all spent wondering about his possible future as a Sabre someday.

Let’s pose the question: with the Blackhawks struggling and looking like they’re in need of a roster flip and some cap flexibility, would you have any interest in trading for Kane? If so, for what?