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Trade Speculation and Rumors 2018-19

Brawndo

By Brawndo
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LTS First Liner

LTS

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At this point... how does Tavares not at least go to free agency and see what happens?

 

Are the Islanders going to reduce their offer?  Unlikely.

 

Your 11 days away from finding out how much money you could earn.  I'd stick it out.  I'd wait 11 days to have a drink if you told me I was going to get a 20yr Pappy at the end of it.

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Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

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At this point... how does Tavares not at least go to free agency and see what happens?

 

Are the Islanders going to reduce their offer?  Unlikely.

 

Your 11 days away from finding out how much money you could earn.  I'd stick it out.  I'd wait 11 days to have a drink if you told me I was going to get a 20yr Pappy at the end of it.

 

The incentive is that he can get one more year of term from the Islanders than he can from anyone else.  He could pull a Stamkos.

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Randall Flagg Hall of Famer

Randall Flagg

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There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.

 

I don't want to give up what it would take to get him, but my goooooooooooooooooooood what a winger for Jack he would be. 

 

Save some cap space for next offseason, Jason. 

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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC 49s50 seconds ago

 

 

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There is word today that Artemi Panarin has told CLB that he is not ready to consider an extension “at this time.” (UFA July 2019.) As a result, the Blue Jackets are testing the market for him.

I've found someone I'm willing to trade O'Reilly for.

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That Aud Smell Hall of Famer

That Aud Smell

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Re Panarin: What's CBJ's roster structure such that they would not do what's necessary to get him signed to a deal? I mean - isn't he one of their 4 or 5 core must-have guys? Or nah?

 

I also question whether this is the sort of thing JBOT would do. Seems more like a FGMTM move.

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Eleven Hall of Famer

Eleven

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Re Panarin: What's CBJ's roster structure such that they would not do what's necessary to get him signed to a deal? I mean - isn't he one of their 4 or 5 core must-have guys? Or nah?

 

I also question whether this is the sort of thing JBOT would do. Seems more like a FGMTM move.

 

I honestly believe that there are some markets that hockey players just don't want to be in, and that Columbus is one of them.

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Randall Flagg Hall of Famer

Randall Flagg

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Tweets like this started out around November:
@DaveDavisHockey
Friedman repeated what he said in HNIC about the Sabres being "open for business" and expected return in a Kane deal. Also said he "could see" the Flames being interested in Kane.
 
Then we have Friedmann. 
 
12/11/17, Friedmann: Obviously, Buffalo has rental options with Kane and Benoit Pouliot. Kane will be highly coveted, and potential pursuers say the Sabres are looking at the 2016 Andrew Ladd and 2017 Martin Hanzal trades as comparables. Ladd went from Winnipeg to Chicago for Marco Dano, a first-round selection and a conditional pick. Hanzal’s move from Arizona to Minnesota (with Ryan White) was for a first, a second and a fourth. The Sabres feel Kane is an even better option, so they will aim higher. Buffalo fans are hoping the winger brings back a stud defender, but it’s hard to see that for a rental.
 
Nothing crazy here, but the return Buffalo is looking for and will argue down from is being established. Then Bobby McK says this:
 
12/12/17: @NicholsOnHockey
McKenzie: "The talks on Evander Kane that have been going on virtually all season are intensifying and picking up." #Sabres
 
Dreger, January 19, via Brawndo: "Per Dreger Things are heating up around the Buffalo Sabres and things are intensifying around Kane as of this morning.

Teams are starting to get twitchy as the deadline approaches and may want to make a move before February 26. 

Says the asking price is high on Kane but the return may surprise people as players usually get more than expected in return."

 

We knew that we weren't going to get that initial return, and many people were speculating that we were going to be disappointed around this time.

 

Dreger, February 2nd: Dreger - the interest for Evander Kane remains consistent. However, there is still no clear distinctions between teams who are buyers or sellers. Botterill might as well hold his ground leading up to February 26. #Sabres

 

Dreger here is referring to the intensifying and heating talks that he and others claimed were happening. (Spoiler alert, they weren't happening.) 

 

Incarcerated Bob, who does actually break stuff, February 18: Blues and Sharks making strong push for Evander Kane talks heated up L24 hours. Penguins also involved

 

Insider Trading, a week before deadline (Dreger is on this): "Kane Trade Talks is starting to heat up, Botterill has a few offers but it sounds more like player for player rather than picks and prospects which is what the Sabres are looking for."

 

Botterill has a few offers, eh Darren?
 

Dreger, just before the deadline: "there wasn't a lot of interest in Kane until recently"

 

Um, sorry Darren, what? 

 

Thorny's reaction to this made me laugh: "So they’ve been wrong for months? Or they were deliberately fabricating information to generate clicks. 

Sounds like the latter. So bogus."

 

Dreger, a couple days before: "Monday is still most likely trade scenario for Evander Kane, but talks have intensified following Nash trade"

 

Then the day before the deadline, Shannon says there's belief that Kane will not be moved at all. Then he got yelled at by fans, so five minutes later he tweeted that Kane will be traded for less return than Botterill was initially asking for (which was a first, a high end prospect, yadda yadda) no duh. I believe I started ranting when this happened.

 

Then on the deadline it comes out that one team made an actual offer for Kane. Nobody else even called with a realistic proposal, before ultimately saying "no thanks, not interested." One team briefly mentioned a first rounder before yanking the offer off the table because they had a more appealing option, supposedly. This information came directly from Botterill, who basically said almost nothing else this whole time, because he runs a tight ship. McKenzie, Dreger, and I believe Custance all independently said that nothing was getting out of Buffalo's front office at all leading up to these events. Which is an important point for our O'Reilly discussion.  

 

I quoted a few pieces from more prominent names of NHL rumor-mongering, but it annoys me so much because it drives all of the "rumor guys" underneath the big ones, and pushes 50+ page threads of conversation for months, when they're AT BEST being annoyingly vague and getting played by people with agendas, but more accurately, IMO, are being downright dishonest. Claims of multiple offers on the table for Botterill followed by the same guys saying there was no interest at that time and retweeting how Botterill says the only offer they got was the one they took a few minutes before the deadline ended.

It just bugs the crap out of me. I understand if people don't feel the same way. It's not that I don't like rumors and speculation, but somewhere along the way there are large amounts of contradiction from guys that start to get taken at their word with reputations far greater than what they're actually giving to us. 

 
As far as what this has to do with ROR...
 
In Botterill's introductory press conference, he had glowing things to say about Ryan O'Reilly and the Sabres' center situation in general. 
"The league is run through centers"
"People are craving for centermen like O'Reilly and Eichel"
Those are the only exact quotes I can grab because I'm not rewatching his early interviews, ain't nobody got time for that.
 
Fast forward through some of this dreadful season: 

"ROR is not a player he would like to move now, he is not shopping him. But the team is not where it needs to be right now. 

Botterill added "O'Reilly is a huge part of what we're doing here""  (Feb 1st)
 
Early rumblings of a potential ROR trade that existed because we were in last place and he's a piece with value.
 
Dudacek response to this initial rumor:
"Also, I listened to the Botterill interview.
If O’Reilly is going anywhere, it’s for a king’s ransom.
Either Botterill considers Ryan a core piece, or he is an outstanding poker player... 
 
...Did you hear Botterill’s GR interview?
He basically laughed at the idea.
Said there is 100 per cent of a chance O’Reilly will be here after the deadline, and reiterated his belief in winning with strength down the middle." 
 
 
The dreadful season ends, we all know about ROR saying that hockey ###### sucks when your team ###### sucks. 

“It’s out of my control,” O’Reilly said of his future. “I think I have to do what I can. I want to be here. I want to be part of the solution here. I want an opportunity to stick around. I have a real good opportunity here.” "I want to change. I want to be in Buffalo. I love it there."
 
"Buffalo GM Jason Botterill reportedly isn't shopping Ryan O'Reilly, but he is willing to listen to offers on players who aren't Jack Eichel or Casey Mittelstadt." -rotoworld
 
On Botterill in TBN today, June Nineteenth:" The Sabres aren't shopping O'Reilly or anybody else, for that matter. When you're a 62-point team, you're willing to do a lot of listening.

"To be honest, the interest in Ryan is not surprising at all. Ryan is one of our better players," Botterill told The Buffalo News. "He had another successful World Championship even though Team Canada was disappointed that they didn't come away with the medal. But he played a very big role for Canada again."Look, when I'm having discussions with other teams or other teams call me, they're not looking for some of our players who are struggling. They're looking to improve with our talented players.""

This is all what you'd expect about a good player who said a juicy comment with today's journalism tactics. A great player on a bad team losing his love for the game,
and lots of teams, including the one with the second-biggest and second-most-annoying media, desperately needing players at that position? TBN and Botterill himself acknowledge this obvious truth, while reiterating that they aren't setting out to trade Ryan for the tenth time, but that they understand why he'd get a lot of interest (for the reasons I just outlined).

Randy Sexton today: "We don't know that we need to blow up the roster but clearly we do need to make changes. And we're working on several fronts in parallel to improve our team in the near term and the long term. We believe we have some terrific young players in place and terrific middle age players in place that can be with us for years to come but clearly we need to make changes and thats the plan we set about to put into action." 

I don't think there's been anything more consistent through the last year than the Sabres being terrible and the Sabres wanting to keep ROR unless their doors get blown off. How does the media feel? 
Again, in February, Friedmann says: “I don’t think so,” said Elliotte Friedman during a Tuesday TV hit on Sportsnet. “I started to hear Ryan O’Reilly’s name just before the weekend and I asked around and I checked a couple of things. I think it would be a huge surprise if he got traded by Buffalo. I think teams have asked. He’s got a big ticket in terms of signing bonus is most of his contract. But I think if you look at Jason Botterill and where he comes from, where was the Penguins’ strength – it was down the middle. And he’s trying to build that with O’Reilly and Jack Eichel and maybe a Casey Mittelstadt in the future. I think teams have asked Buffalo if they would consider moving O’Reilly. Anything can happen, but I really get the sense it’s not what Buffalo wants to do.” 
This follows what has come out of the Sabres organization this whole time, by the book, really. 

Dreger in April: "The sense that I've been given from the management in Buffalo, is yeah of course he's going to listen on Ryan O'Reilly...but it would take an absolute sweetheart deal for the Buffalo Sabres to consider. In saying that, he's a hell of a player. On pretty much every team in the league he's at least a #2 center isn't he? There's going to be a market for Ryan O'Reilly and Jason Botterill is going to have some tough decisions specific to O'Reilly.

"Teams who need centers will do whatever they need to do to get in that conversation...Botterill will be big game hunting."

This is more of the same. 

Now, however, that bozo Shannon is claiming that ROR is actively being shopped by Buffalo. He also claims that he's worth a second round pick and that his contract is almost unmoveable, for what it's worth: 
Over the past few days, trade rumors and speculations have started to pick up surrounding the Sabres and center Ryan O'Reilly. Several around the NHL have thought that O'Reilly is being actively shopped by the Sabres, despite being acquired by the team just three years ago at the 2015 NHL Draft.
 
John Shannon of Sportsnet shed some light on the trade talks, and confirmed that they are not just rumors being thrown into the wind.
 
"Well, they're real. It's not something that somebody made up and sat in their basement and it just started to spread," Shannon said with Howard Simon and Jeremy White on Thursday. "It's one of those ones where whether his comments at the end of the season were a factor or not, I wonder what the new leadership (Phil Housley and Jason Botterill) feel about O'Reilly as a player."
 
This is, without a doubt, a sharp turn from where things were even after the season ended. But let's look at the rumors that John references. 
A couple weeks ago, LeBrun parrots this same info, while adding that his opinion is that we go against what we know, and will end up trading him. He doesn't claim that he knows or has heard anything.
 "Ryan O’Reilly is more than happy to return to Buffalo and the Sabres have no problem keeping him, but I still think he’s the most likely core player that gets dealt by GM Jason Botterill.

The Sabres were 31st this season and they need change, something I think Botterill wants to bring. The reality is that O’Reilly could bring a handsome return, and teams certainly have been calling. Montreal is indeed among those clubs with interest. No surprise there.

The Sabres would want a younger NHL player or two in return, I believe, the idea being to re-tool around the similar age range around Jack Eichel, Casey Mittelstadt and soon-to-be drafted Rasmus Dahlin.

Affecting the O’Reilly trade market to some degree is the future of John Tavares. Once the pending UFA franchise centre either decides who he’s signing with or his camp identifies a short list, the market will open for the field for the teams left off to then focus on pending UFA Paul Stastny or a trade for O’Reilly."

 

What does Bob McKenzie think? May 17th: 

"In my mind, the #Sabres are open for business. After the exit interviews were done I think hey realized they really need to make changes to their core."
"I don't think its a fire sale there, but I do think that if they get a call that's on just about anyone but Eichel or the 1st overall pick they're going to listen."
"I feel the player most likely to be moved is veteran center Ryan O'Reilly. He's a core guy and if you're going to affect a culture change you're going to need to move a core guy."
"I think the more practical reason why the Sabres are right now intent on trading ROR, is that the #Sabrea are trying to surround Eichel and Dahlin with younger players" 
 
Interesting. First off, look at the qualifiers. "In my mind." "I feel." "I think." This is not coming from a source or our organization. Bob is constructing a logical hockey opinion based on things he has heard. This opinion is reasonable, but there is nothing that indicates he has been informed that this is the case, and in fact, nothing coming out of any source or any organization has agreed with this. 

THEN, Bob goes into parameters of a potential trade after these premises which he admits to be speculation, or at least doesn't claim to be fact. In these parameters, he mentions the package return that is getting cited by everyone under the sun, the Richards/Carter thing. He says he is TOLD this. He says when somebody tells him something. He didn't say this when he said he believes the Sabres are going to trade ROR. He did say this when talking about a potential return. We know teams are calling on ROR and everyone else, that is information that was given to us by Botterill and sources in general. So I think it is safe to assume that this is true. 
 
My problem is that this entire post sort of kick-started the crazy spiraling rumor mill, as the entire twitter thread was then purported to be under the umbrella of things Bob has been told by dozens of people. 
 
But in reality, nobody has ever said in the Sabres organization or otherwise that they'd like to trade O'Reilly. It was an educated opinion that they are, that opinion reasonably counters everything we know, that opinion did not come from any source, and sources have independently said that teams are calling the Sabres on anyone, which makes sense and is backed by what the Sabres have said, and that the Sabres have clarified what the return might have to be. I hope I'm not being unclear on this, but a logical jump was made that kickstarted all of the conversations and hype, and that logical jump was flawed, and I think I've pinpointed the exact place it went wrong. 
 
Bozo Shannon's take was after this Bob tweet. So was LeBrun's. Dreger's was before. After Bob says this, he also put out the dreaded "Carolina likes ROR, Sabres like Skinner" tweet which was handled reasonably here, but which blew up twitter and hf with ZOMG BOTTERILL WANTS TO TRADE ROR FOR SKINNER takes. The ROR "rumors" were officially burning like an out of control wildfire, and I started getting really irritated. 
 
With all of this noise firmly planted, Friedmann finally gives an opinion, which he does not claim is backed by any sort of insider knowledge, or talks with any team. This opinion is the opposite of what it was a couple months ago. He forms it after all of this noise is ###### everywhere. He says: “While I think it’s likely O’Reilly is traded right now, I don’t think it’s as much of a slam dunk guarantee as Kane was.” 

This adds nothing to our knowledge base but it stokes the fires even more. It's still a valid opinion. It's an opinion we could and have talked about to generate summer discussion. But it changes nothing and it teaches us nothing. It sure does make the noise louder and APPEAR to tell us that things are suddenly more serious and imminent though. 

The same day as Friedmann says this, Dreger reiterates the same thing he's always said. The return would have to be huge, ROR and the Sabres have a good working relationship and think highly of each other.
 
It is also right after Friedmann that bozo Shannon makes his "THE RUMERS R REAL" proclamation, and says that ROR is worth a 2nd because of his nearly un-movable contract. He provides no evidence or direct link to where he could have learned this, and drooled over how ROR would help the Canadiens for ten minutes.
 
A few days later, Dreger says the Sabres like Hanifin and separately Carolina continues to enjoy Ryan O'Reilly, a Selke-level elite two-way center, a revelation. Then twitter, here, and hf explode with Hanifin-ROR trade proposals and people apoplectic all over again.
 
Then, on Friday, Friedmann continues his opinion, making it more definite, adding no new insight into how he learned this, while also not claiming it to be anything more than opinion - he says HE THINKS that ROR has a very good chance of being dealt, and the question is if it's before or after the draft. Everyone explodes again for the ninth time. 
 
And here we are today, everyone, me included, refreshing Sabrespace every 5 minutes, waiting for the trade to fall. 

Let me summarize.
- Botterill gets here, effing loves ROR like everyone else on the planet. Raves about how important centers are in general, especially centers like him, talks about how it wins cups and how long teams wait to build spines like we have. 
- We suck. ROR is very good, aside from stumbling at the beginning. As the trade deadline approaches, Botterill reaffirms that ROR is not being shopped and that he is a huge part of what we want to do here. Friedmann says:“I don’t think so,” said Elliotte Friedman during a Tuesday TV hit on Sportsnet. “I started to hear Ryan O’Reilly’s name just before the weekend and I asked around and I checked a couple of things. I think it would be a huge surprise if he got traded by Buffalo. I think teams have asked." "Anything is possible" but he doesn't think we're looking to move him. Note the importance of Friedmann clarifying what is opinion versus what he has heard and checked in on. He's a professional, he does that.
-Media all comments that not a peep gets out of Buffalo.
- The season ends, ROR makes his comments. Botterill keeps saying the same goddamn thing he's said the whole time. ROR agrees in three separate interviews. He loves Buffalo, wants to stay, has a good working relationship with the GM, and thinks the feeling is mutual, that they both want each other. 
- Right after this stuff, Dreger says that 'sure, ROR can be traded in principle' but that he continues to feel we're not interested in doing so and it would take a huge return, as is the case for any good player on a team that finishes in last place. 
- Then comes the tipping point. Bob McKenzie unleashes the bombshell of pure, admitted opinion, without claiming that he was told it, and giving every indication that he's just pontificating. In doing so, he used something he was told as potential return by a team that was doing the calling of the Sabres that we DID know about, and that makes complete sense given that ROR is a good player on a bad team. This bit of information he was told also upholds the conventional thought that ROR isn't for sale or being shopped, but that teams are calling. 
-After Bob McKenzie says this, floodgates opened. bozo Shannon gave his opinion described above, and Friedmann abruptly changed his mind, without adding that he has more information, even though when he does get information he outlines it, as a professional, which supports the logical conclusion that Bob McK's noise generator is what changed his mind. 
- After Friedmann and Shannon, Dreger says the same goddamn thing he's always been saying, that ROR could be moved in principle because we suck but the Sabres like him and it would take a crazy offer. Unfortunately, he also tweets out the Skinner and ROR interest, both of which make complete sense and shouldn't have been conflated by others the way they were, neither of which change Dreger's opinion or the reality about ROR's availability (it's the same as it was before we knew that Carolina was one of the teams calling)
-Friedmann then declares it's a matter of if, not when, with the same opinion-rhetoric and completely intentional lack of a "sources say," just a reference to the noise that was created by pure opinion that were never taken as anything but by important people, but were conflated as known sourced fact in giant echo chambers.
-Today Botterill spoke and said the same goddamn thing he's said since he got here, laughing at the obviousness of the fact that people would call about his good player on a bad team, but insisting that he loves ROR and isn't shopping him. Randy Sexton made reference to terrific middle-age players that are part of the team's future. 
 
This is what I mean about how irritating this rumor thing is. It is certainly possible that ROR gets traded, but the amplification of rumors are driven by twitter and lower-tier insiders that don't listen to the nuance of a guy like McKenzie or Friedmann, who probably revels in the fact that he creates the craziness that he does. They specify when a team or a source says that a team is looking to move a team, and they specify when they're giving opinion by using proper phrasing. Taking this into account, I stand by everything I've said to this point about the likelihood of ROR getting traded and the increase in noise about the possibility. 
Edited by Randall Flagg
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Randall Flagg Hall of Famer

Randall Flagg

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Posted (edited)

If ever there was a time for TL;DR this is it. 

I'll do a better TL:DR. 

 

Botterill, as recently as this morning, has held the exact same position on ROR. He is great, coveted, and not being shopped. That being said, we suck and need to take any call we can. But we love ROR. 

 

ROR's quote made twitter users lick their chops and detonate. 

 

Despite ROR's quote, he wants to stay here and Botts still wants him here. 

 

Dreger has parroted that this is what he knows, all the way through all the rumors. 

 

McKenzie mused a month ago that it is his belief that ROR will get traded, and he laid out hockey reasons why that might make sense, while being clear it was his own opinion. The only source he referenced did not say that this is how Buffalo feels, it just clarified what return we're looking for, and this information came from a team that was calling us because we have a good player on a bad team, which we already knew about. 

 

This musing made Friedmann change his mind, from Dreger's stance, the correct one, to Bob's. Friedmann and McKenzie feeling this way, while not actually hearing it, because they affirmatively say when they hear things and make distinctions between their opinions and what they're reporting. Everyone on twitter and forums ignored this and talked about it as fact, making the din louder, and prompting John Shannon to give the most aggressive take on ROR being traded out there - that it is definitely happening. 

 

John Shannon is the man who claimed on trade deadline day that Kane wasn't being traded that day. Then changed his mind because fans yelled at him for being a moron on twitter. He believes, in the same breath as the ROR claim, that the return will be a second round pick because of ROR's contract. 

 

There aren't actual rumors of us wanting to move ROR under any of this. As recently as this morning, the updated facts are that we are not shopping ROR, but we're taking calls on everyone, because we suck and need to make changes, and of course teams would ask about ROR. We knew this in November. However, the din created by these guys has all of us refreshing SS and twitter every 3 minutes waiting for the trade to happen. 

 

My conclusion is that all of these guys are goddamn morons and that we might trade ROR, which I could have told you if I had no internet and had never heard of any of them, but that we'd be stupid to unless the return was amazing. Botterill agrees according to every bit of actual fact out there.

Edited by Randall Flagg
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