Holy Mackerel! Sabres Win Dahlin Lottery!

[ubkev]

Botterill Face.

You think he knows we got this?

[Thorner]

Botterill Face.

I’m sorry if the Sabres win 1st that’s my avatar forever.

[Kruppstahl]

Watching Botterill. 

I'm thinking of GMTM and how much he hated what Botts is doing right now.

 

LOL.

[Andrew Amerk]

Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher?

[Randall Flagg]

We know that there are 310 possible combinations that could have won right now. We own 185, or 60% of them.

Edited April 28, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Billznut]

Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher?

Right. Thats what im wondering now. Is it 33.3% chance for the lat three teams? Or do we still have better odds?

We know that there are 310 possible combinations that could have won right now. We own 185, or 60% of them.

So we now have a 2 to 1 chance of winning this?

[Randall Flagg]

Right. Thats what im wondering now. Is it 33.3% chance for the lat three teams? Or do we still have better odds?

We now have a 60% chance.

[bunomatic]

Right. Thats what im wondering now. Is it 33.3% chance for the lat three teams? Or do we still have better odds?

I would think the draw for last 3 was made when the others were drawn so the odds are the same as before.

[Randall Flagg]

If the Hurricanes win, we're totally doing ROR for Slavin right?

[bunomatic]

or I could be wrong. 

[Weave]

John Vogl‏Verified account @BuffNewsVogl 2m2 minutes ago

 

 

The Sabres have an 18.5 percent chance of being No. 1. Montreal has a 9.5 percent chance. Carolina has a 3 percent chance.

[DarthEbriate]

So...  Y'all really aren't watching bizKid$?

 

NBC... I am so ready to deal with you as I did the younglings.

[JujuFish]

Is the Buffalo fan base the only one that seems to think this is fixed? I think even the idea it is seems idiotic and reminds me of the birth certificate controversy.

 

I don't think anyone really believes it's fixed.  It's just a way to let off steam.

[Billznut]

We now have a 60% chance.

So it’s:

Buffalo 60%

Montreal 30%

Carolina 10%

 

Roughly??

 

John Vogl‏Verified account @BuffNewsVogl 2m2 minutes ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Sabres have an 18.5 percent chance of being No. 1. Montreal has a 9.5 percent chance. Carolina has a 3 percent chance.

Vogls #s aren’t accurate anymore

[Randall Flagg]

 

John Vogl‏Verified account @BuffNewsVogl 2m2 minutes ago

 

 

The Sabres have an 18.5 percent chance of being No. 1. Montreal has a 9.5 percent chance. Carolina has a 3 percent chance.

 

This isn't right anymore. The pool of possible combinations is down to 310. We have 185 combinations.

 

Come on Vogl. 

So it’s:

Buffalo 60%

Montreal 30%

Carolina 10%

 

Roughly??

Vogls #s aren’t accurate anymore

Yessir.

[bcsaberks]

Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher?

It's still 18.5% chance + the other 2 picks.

From DieByTheBlade:

Best case of getting a top three pick will be 64.55%

[‘#1’ pick 185/1000] + [#2 pick (if 30th team gets #1 pick) 185/865] + [#3 pick (if 29th team gets #2 pick) 185/750] = 64.55%

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2018/4/28/17128884/2018-nhl-draft-lottery-team-odds-buffalo-sabres-probability-rasmus-dahlin-how-to-watch-time-channel

[Randall Flagg]

We know for a fact that the combinations of the teams not drafting top 3 did not get picked at all. This eliminates 690 of the combinations that were contributing to our 18.5% chance. 

What we know right now is that one combination out of 310 possible ones was drawn to pick Dahlin, and that we have 185 of them.

[Eleven]

It was always 18.5.  The drawing already happened.

We know for a fact that the combinations of the teams not drafting top 3 did not get picked at all. This eliminates 690 of the combinations that were contributing to our 18.5% chance. 

What we know right now is that one combination out of 310 possible ones was drawn to pick Dahlin, and that we have 185 of them.

 

This also is correct.

[inkman]

Did it happen? Where it it on? This thread sucks.

[CallawaySabres]

Heart attack watching that #4 pick

 

Let's finish this but man, we know we are getting solid player now. Let's get the best now

[Kruppstahl]

Does this make the odds 33%, or is it higher?

It's higher.

[Randall Flagg]

Did it happen? Where it it on? This thread sucks.

inkman, they reveal the top three during the second intermission of the Sharks game. Then we'll know. 

[inkman]

So this is definitely not on NBC

Edited April 29, 2018 by inkman

[DarthEbriate]

Did it happen? Where it it on? This thread sucks.

You were watching bizKid$, too?

[JujuFish]

It was always 18.5.  The drawing already happened.

 

This also is correct.

 

It's more like:

Buffalo: 59.6774%

Montreal: 30.6452%

Carolina: 9.6774%

 

Think of it like the Monty Hall problem.  The "doors" that have been "opened" are teams that have been revealed, increasing the chances proportionally for the remaining teams.