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Holy Mackerel! Sabres Win Dahlin Lottery!

Randall Flagg

By Randall Flagg
in The Aud Club

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WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

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Peters asked Botts if he was taking Dahlin #1 and this was the response

Botterill - Dahlin is a very talented player. With that No. 1 pick, we get to control who and where we get to pick. #Sabres

 

He was laughing the entire time he answered that question too

And Terry Pegula just called in as 'Terry from Pennsylvania'. He's answering questions now

sodbuster Second Liner

sodbuster

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Machine 1 - Ball, guy records the number

Machine 2 - Ball, guy records the number

Machine 3 - Ball, guy records the number

Machine 4 - Ball, guy records the number

 

The full number is read out in case someone missed it.

This. Then they sit in the room by themselves until the rest of the world is given the glorious news.
WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

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The first three numbers drawn for the first overall pick were 1, 4, 14, in that specific order. After those three numbers were called, Buffalo, Arizona, Vancouver and Chicago each had two number combinations remaining that could’ve seen them win the top selection, while Ottawa had three potential winning combos. No. 6 was called and that meant it was the Sabres that became the lucky team with the opportunity to draft consensus top prospect Rasmus Dahlin, a player who said he enjoys watching Senators captain Erik Karlsson above all others.

sodbuster Second Liner

sodbuster

Posted
Posted

 

The first three numbers drawn for the first overall pick were 1, 4, 14, in that specific order. After those three numbers were called, Buffalo, Arizona, Vancouver and Chicago each had two number combinations remaining that could’ve seen them win the top selection, while Ottawa had three potential winning combos. No. 6 was called and that meant it was the Sabres that became the lucky team with the opportunity to draft consensus top prospect Rasmus Dahlin, a player who said he enjoys watching Senators captain Erik Karlsson above all others.

Man, poor Arizona. They get so close every year.
That Aud Smell Hall of Famer

That Aud Smell

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Posted

Im wrong, there is 1 machine with all the numbers. 

Yeah. They just replace the ball each time. Same outcome.

 

Gotcha.

 

 

 

The first three numbers drawn for the first overall pick were 1, 4, 14, in that specific order. After those three numbers were called, Buffalo, Arizona, Vancouver and Chicago each had two number combinations remaining that could’ve seen them win the top selection, while Ottawa had three potential winning combos. No. 6 was called and that meant it was the Sabres that became the lucky team with the opportunity to draft consensus top prospect Rasmus Dahlin, a player who said he enjoys watching Senators captain Erik Karlsson above all others.

 

 

Is there artificiality or some sort of faulty reasoning in saying that the odds were such-and-such at the pulling of the 4th number? Or is that, in truth, what the odds had become at that point? Do the original odds remain applicable in some way, up until the final number is drawn?

He uttered the phrase "the final solution" earlier in his call about the Bills and it was yet again not the best choice of words...

 

GTFO.

 

You're joking.

WildCard Hall of Famer

WildCard

Posted
Posted

He uttered the phrase "the final solution" earlier in his call about the Bills and it was yet again not the best choice of words...

Well that explains Allen > Rosen

darksabre Hall of Famer

darksabre

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If that's the context and the full sentence there's nothing to see here.

Right, it's not really bad. But it's just another one of those phrases that I would never use in any capacity in the business world. You'd think, being in that world, he'd have that one completely scrubbed from his head. I just thought it was funny given his propensity for saying weird stuff. 

That Aud Smell Hall of Famer

That Aud Smell

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Right. Although his comments the other day about the NFL needing to be more like the NRA were a little more suspect. 

 

Is true.

 

It wasn't necessarily a non-apt parallel for the point he was trying to make. But it was ... a curious one.

Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

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The NHL lottery has 14 balls numbered 1 - 14 in a single hopper. 4 balls are drawn out of the hopper w/ none getting replaced. They don't care the order in which the numbers come out of the hopper, i.e. 1-2-3-14 is equivalent to 14-3-2-1.

 

There are 1,001 different combinations that can be drawn. 1,000 of these combinations are assigned randomly to the 16 teams in the lottery (Vegas had the same odds as the 29th place team) and if the 1,001st combination came up it would be a redraw.

 

After a particular ball is drawn, the odds change as the probability of drawing that particular ball goes from 1/14 to 100% & every other ball now has a 1/13th chance of being drawn.

 

In the example where the Otters had the best chances once only 1 ball was left, it had been assigned the most combinations containing the already drawn 3 ball combo. (They likely had 3 combos that worked as Buffalo & 3 others had the 2nd best odds & necessarily had 2 combos that worked (11 remaining balls, Otters w/ 3 of those, Buffalo & the other 3 w/ 2 each of the combos).)

 

The math of the original 14 balls yeilding 1,001 combinations is 14!/10! 4! (14*13*...*2*1)/((10*9*8*...*2*1)*(4*3*2*1)).

Yeah. They just replace the ball each time. Same outcome.

No, they don't replace the balls each time after a ball has been selected. There are only 11 balls left in the hopper to determine the 4th number.

 

They likely use a fresh set of lottery balls for each of the 3 draws to make sure none of the previously selected balls have been damaged/altered.

Sabres Fan in NS Hall of Famer

Sabres Fan in NS

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Posted

^

 

Sorry, Taro, but that makes it harder to get my head around ...  :P

 

And, this from a guy who just spend an hour reading up on marital status and changes to that as it pertains to Canadian tax law.

 

Man, I could really use a month long, at least, vacation.

darksabre Hall of Famer

darksabre

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Posted

Is true.

 

It wasn't necessarily a non-apt parallel for the point he was trying to make. But it was ... a curious one.

I think he's just one of those people who has no knowledge of history. He's never watched a lick of history channel, or been to a museum, or considered anything remotely related to a social issue of any sort. He's only ever done business things. So because he's a rich white dude who probably hangs out with conservative business types a lot, the NRA has probably been discussed in his circles as a branding success. The context of the NRA, gun violence, black communities, Kaep, etc, is completely lost on him. He's probably never heard the phrase "the final solution" used in the context of the holocaust. He probably just has no idea. 

 

It's gotta be weird to be his kids...

Taro T Hall of Famer

Taro T

Posted
Posted

^

 

Sorry, Taro, but that makes it harder to get my head around ...  :P

 

And, this from a guy who just spend an hour reading up on marital status and changes to that as it pertains to Canadian tax law.

 

Man, I could really use a month long, at least, vacation.

IIRC, Buffalo had 186 (18.6%) of the 1,000 assigned random number permutations. And they aren't just given combos 1-2-3-4 - ~ 1-2-13-14. Their 186 combos are assigned randomly so that simply having a 1 or a 14 pop out wouldn't guarantee a win (nor a loss, for as many teams as possible).

 

After those 1st 3 balls had been selected, 11 teams had been eliminated from winning the lottery & five remained w/ the Otters having ~27% chance of winning & the other 4 each w/ ~18% chance of winning.

 

 

For the following 2 drawings, each team still had their original #'s, so when on the 3rd draw a combo belonging to the Sabres came up, they redrew the numbers & a combo belonging to the Habs came up. Technically, they could have had an infinite number of redraws for the 2nd &/or 3rd drawing because the Sabres combo still had the best odds of winning & each draw was an independent event.

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a VERY SPECIFIC REASON to revive this one.

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