Holy Mackerel! Sabres Win Dahlin Lottery!

[That Aud Smell]

According to Rangers fans, he sucks.

 

Nice.

[Randall Flagg]

He's a better prospect than Eichel was.

 

Holy sh1t.

If he never improved another ounce, he would be a second pairing, fluid skating, 30 point 2-way defenseman for us for 18 years.

[WildCard]

@reporterchris

More Chris Johnston Retweeted Sportsnet

Ottawa had the highest chances of winning the No. 1 pick headed to the last ball. Vancouver, Chicago and Arizona had the same odds as eventual winner Buffalo.

[That Aud Smell]

I 100% do not understand how the odds work.

[WildCard]

I 100% do not understand how the odds work.

Say Buffalo's number was 1523, Ottawa's is 1524, Arizona's is 1525, and Vancouver's is 1526

 

So the last ball would be the number 3, and we have already selected 152 (hence why each of the 4 teams above are still alive)

 

For some reason, there are more 4's left than 3's, 5's, or 6's. So Ottawa has the highest chance of winning

 

But a 3 was selected, so Buffalo won

[That Aud Smell]

Say Buffalo's number was 1523, Ottawa's is 1524, Arizona's is 1525, and Vancouver's is 1526

 

So the last ball would be the number 3, and we have already selected 152 (hence why each of the 4 teams above are still alive)

 

For some reason, there are more 4's left than 3's, 5's, or 6's. So Ottawa has the highest chance of winning

 

But a 3 was selected, so Buffalo won

 

Appreciate the effort. I am still lost.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Appreciate the effort. I am still lost.

 

Me too, but I did not hold out much hope of a clear explanation from a guy who is lost in a supermarket.

[Doohicksie]

Yep. I over rate Sabres prospects but from other analysts I've heard 'Connor mcdavid of defensemen', 'best d prospect to come out since perhaps Denis potvin.'. Christ that was pushing 50 years ago.

 

Due to my age I wasn't able to watch potvin. How did his career end up going?

 

If he's the best defenseman since Nick Lidstrom, I'll be happy.  As it is, one of the profiles said he's ahead of where Lidstrom was at the same age.  Lidstrom went +36 and scored 60 points his freshman campaign with the Wings.

[WildCard]

Me too, but I did not hold out much hope of a clear explanation from a guy who is lost in a supermarket.

How about from a guy who's created the technology to let spiders talk to cats?

 

[sodbuster]

Appreciate the effort. I am still lost.

It's even simpler than he's making it.

 

Each team is assigned a whole bunch of possible permutations of lottery ball numbers. As each ball comes out of the machine, that eliminates a certain number of possible permutations. By the time the last ball was coming out of the machine, Ottawa had the most assigned remaining possible outcomes.

Edited April 30, 2018 by sodbuster

[WildCard]

It's even simpler than he's making it.

 

Each team is assigned a whole bunch of possible permutations of lottery ball numbers. As each ball comes out of the machine, that eliminates a certain number of possible permutations. By the time the last ball was coming out of the machine, Ottawa had the most assigned remaining possible outcomes.

I mean that's exactly what I said, just with an example  ;)

 

Kinda figured not everyone would know what a permutation is

Edited April 30, 2018 by WildCard

[sodbuster]

I mean that's exactly what I said, just with an example ;)

 

Kinda figured not everyone would know what a permutation is

I don't think it is. From what I've read, each ball comes out of a different machine, making each draw an independent event. So the permutation 2,2,2,2 has the same probability of appearing as 1,2,3,4.

 

Unless my exposure to statistics from the professors in the political science department at Brockport has failed me, which is entirely possible. :lol:

Edited April 30, 2018 by sodbuster

[WildCard]

I don't think it is. From what I've read, each ball comes out of a different machine, making each draw an independent event. So the permutation 2,2,2,2 has the same probability of appearing as 1,2,3,4.

Can you explain what you mean more? Each permutation has the same probability, sure. But that doesn't explain why my example is incorrect; there is a reason Ottawa had the highest chance coming down to the last ball

[sodbuster]

Can you explain what you mean more? Each permutation has the same probability, sure. But that doesn't explain why my example is incorrect; there is a reason Ottawa had the highest chance coming down to the last ball

Absolutely.

 

Say three teams are involved, and the drawing is only 2 single digit balls. Teams are A, B, and C.

 

A is assigned 00-09 and 10.

B is assigned 10-19 and 20.

C is assigned everything else, which would be 21-99.

 

Going into the drawing, A and B each have an 11% chance of winning, C has 88%.

 

The first ball drawn is 1, eliminating 90 possible outcomes, of which, A posses 1, B possesses 9, and C possesses 0.

 

A has a 10% chance.

B has a 90% chance.

C is SOL.

 

Ottawa is basically team B in this situation. The Sabres are team A.

Edited April 30, 2018 by sodbuster

[WildCard]

It's combination based. Ottawa or whatever had more combinations that started with 1-4-6 then anyone else who had a 1-4-6 combination. 

Right

[Stoner]

Appreciate the effort. I am still lost.

Moving targets when thinking about the odds. There were pre-drawing odds, odds once we knew the three teams, then odds at the moment the last ball was drawn. In the case of the latter, it's thought of in retrospect. The mind warp is the feeling that these drawings were taking place at different times.

[WildCard]

Absolutely.

 

Say three teams are involved, and the drawing is only 2 single digit balls. Teams are A, B, and C.

 

A is assigned 00-09 and 10.

B is assigned 10-19 and 20.

C is assigned everything else, which would be 21-99.

 

Going into the drawing, A and B each have an 11% chance of winning, C has 88%.

 

The first ball drawn is 1, eliminating 90 possible outcomes, of which, A posses 1, B possesses 9, and C possesses 0.

 

A has a 10% chance.

B has a 90% chance.

C is SOL.

Right, that all makes sense. How does it differ from my example though?

 

Sorry, this is actually just interesting to me :)

[sodbuster]

Right, that all makes sense. How does it differ from my example though?

 

Sorry, this is actually just interesting to me :)

Because it has nothing to do with the probability of certain balls coming out of the machine. The odds of any ball coming out of the machine are the same each time, as long as they're replacing each ball that comes out or drawing each ball from different machines that have identical sets of balls in them (which is my understanding). Edited April 30, 2018 by sodbuster

[WildCard]

Because it has nothing to do with the probability of certain balls coming out of the machine. The odds of any ball coming out of the machine are the same each time, as long as they're replacing each ball that comes out or drawing each ball from different machines that have identical sets of balls in them (which is my understanding).

Right but all I did was take 4 specific permutations to illustrate a point. If I had assigned them like you did, 152[1-3], 152[4-6], 152[7-9] the example would still be the same, there would just be more possibilities involved 

[sodbuster]

Right but all I did was take 4 specific permutations to illustrate a point. If I had assigned them like you did, 152[1-3], 152[4-6], 152[7-9] the example would still be the same, there would just be more possibilities involved

In that situation, the probability of all of those outcomes would be the same.

[WildCard]

In that situation, the probability of all of those outcomes would be the same.

Ah alright, I see what you're saying. Yeah my mistake. It would be 152[1-7] (Ottawa) 152[8] Buffalo, 152[9] Vancouver

[Sabres Fan in NS]

:unsure:

 

But, hey, who cares.  WE WON THE DAMN LOTTERY, IN SPITE OF THE ODDS.

 

Still not sure how that makes me feel.

 

Onward ...

[That Aud Smell]

It's even simpler than he's making it.

 

Each team is assigned a whole bunch of possible permutations of lottery ball numbers. As each ball comes out of the machine, that eliminates a certain number of possible permutations. By the time the last ball was coming out of the machine, Ottawa had the most assigned remaining possible outcomes.

 

Ahh, so. Okay.

 

Absolutely.

 

Say three teams are involved, and the drawing is only 2 single digit balls. Teams are A, B, and C.

 

A is assigned 00-09 and 10.

B is assigned 10-19 and 20.

C is assigned everything else, which would be 21-99.

 

Going into the drawing, A and B each have an 11% chance of winning, C has 88%.

 

The first ball drawn is 1, eliminating 90 possible outcomes, of which, A posses 1, B possesses 9, and C possesses 0.

 

A has a 10% chance.

B has a 90% chance.

C is SOL.

 

Ottawa is basically team B in this situation. The Sabres are team A.

 

DAMN! This makes me enjoy the gift that much more.

 

Also: Thank you.

 

Moving targets when thinking about the odds. There were pre-drawing odds, odds once we knew the three teams, then odds at the moment the last ball was drawn. In the case of the latter, it's thought of in retrospect. The mind warp is the feeling that these drawings were taking place at different times.

 

This is also super helpful. The bolded still boggles my mind. It would help to know the precise mechanics of how these numbers were drawn.

 

But, hey, who cares.  WE WON THE DAMN LOTTERY, IN SPITE OF THE ODDS.

 

Still not sure how that makes me feel.

 

Makes me feel great.

[sodbuster]

Moving targets when thinking about the odds. There were pre-drawing odds, odds once we knew the three teams, then odds at the moment the last ball was drawn. In the case of the latter, it's thought of in retrospect. The mind warp is the feeling that these drawings were taking place at different times.

This isn't correct. They are all drawn at the same time. The two sessions of card flipping are just theatrics.

[pi2000]

Did they post the video of the lottery draw yet?