Dahlin -> Major Rebuild?

[Crusader1969]

Every time someone compares a league with like 15 different positions to a league with 4, I laugh.

 

That said the bottom 8 should be in a lottery. The Last place should get a 65% chance of first. 8th gets 2%

 

 

I agree, though i would go further and say all 15 spots should be up for grabs.

[pi2000]

Really? You're the Indianapolis Colts you just won the lottery. Doesn't matter because you're not taking a qb anyway. Trade out.

 

You're Buffalo, Jack Hughes is in the draft. You win the lottery. You're drafting Hughes. There's more talent over more positions in the NFL

 

You're the Indianapolis Colts and Saquan Barkley is a generational talent at RB... you win the lottery, you take Barkley.

 

You're Buffalo... a stud C is in the draft, but there are 4 stud defensemen slotted right behind him.   BUF wins the lottery... you strongly consider a trade back. 

 

But anyway, why does that change the fact that a lottery is good idea or not? 

[LTS]

There are many other factors that go into the lottery system.  Because contracts are guaranteed in the NHL it makes things much more difficult in regards to changing out a roster.  In the NFL players are dropped and added all the time because contracts aren't guaranteed (well not 100%, all the time).

 

I don't particularly like the lottery system.  I could see a system that moves a team from picking in the top 3 in back to back years and forces a team down the draft order if they finish worse than they did the year before.  So, if a team drafted 6th the year before and they finish in a position to draft 5th this year they would be moved back to 7 and the 6 and 7 teams would be moved to 5 and 6.

 

A team that just misses out on the playoffs should not have any shot at a top draft pick. 

[Crusader1969]

There are many other factors that go into the lottery system.  Because contracts are guaranteed in the NHL it makes things much more difficult in regards to changing out a roster.  In the NFL players are dropped and added all the time because contracts aren't guaranteed (well not 100%, all the time).

 

I don't particularly like the lottery system.  I could see a system that moves a team from picking in the top 3 in back to back years and forces a team down the draft order if they finish worse than they did the year before.  So, if a team drafted 6th the year before and they finish in a position to draft 5th this year they would be moved back to 7 and the 6 and 7 teams would be moved to 5 and 6.

 

A team that just misses out on the playoffs should not have any shot at a top draft pick. 

 

 

theoretically it should only happen once in a hundred years, so Im ok that they have a shot.

 

I think that if you put every spot up for lottery, you take away almost all motivation to tank.  If you keep the bottom team with the current odds, it would be very unlikely they ever fall of out bottom 5.

[pi2000]

theoretically it should only happen once in a hundred years, so Im ok that they have a shot.

 

I think that if you put every spot up for lottery, you take away almost all motivation to tank.  If you keep the bottom team with the current odds, it would be very unlikely they ever fall of out bottom 5.

 

Then you have a league where teams become dynasties because they got lucky, while other teams suffer for decades.  

 

Just get rid of the lottery, done deal.   It worked for the NHL for over 100 years.      You'd have maybe 1 or 2 teams tank a couple times a decade when generational talent comes along.    Big deal.    Today you have a dozen teams trying to out-tank each other every year, just to increase their lottery odds.   Stupid.

[WildCard]

Then you have a league where teams become dynasties because they got lucky, while other teams suffer for decades.

 

Just get rid of the lottery, done deal. It worked for the NHL for over 100 years. You'd have maybe 1 or 2 teams tank a couple times a decade when generational talent comes along. Big deal. Today you have a dozen teams trying to out-tank each other every year, just to increase their lottery odds. Stupid.

Agreed

[mjd1001]

I don't get this talk of stripping down to the studs and rebuilding. It's not like they have anything significant to strip away. They need to rebuild the bottom 6, but they have some pieces already... Mittlestadt, Bailey, Smith.... Baptiste maybe, a couple UFAs and you're done.

Exactly.

 

What exactly does stripping it down mean? How many legit NHL players are on this roster that would matter in a move like this?  Risto? ROR?  Okposo? Reinhart?  Those are pretty much the only regulars of value (and thought to be in the long term leadership group) besides Eichel...and it wouldn't have been a surprise to see 1, even 2 of them moved anyway.  So what does stripping it down really mean?

[Stoner]

How many games you go to from '05-'07?

I wasn't thinking back that far. The library moniker didn't start with the tank.

[LGR4GM]

I wasn't thinking back that far. The library moniker didn't start with the tank.

Almost like the team was trash before the tank.

[WildCard]

Almost like the team was trash before the tank.

Shhhh, just let it happen

[Stoner]

Almost like the team was trash before the tank.

The range of points in the five seasons after losing the co-captains ranged from 89 to 100 points, with one division title and two playoff appearances. Then they were .500 during the lockout-shortened 12-13 season. I railed on the core, Millsie and Lindy as much as anyone, but that's not trash.

[Thorner]

That would suck.

Assuming it doesn't mean TANKING, and just rebuilding (again), if they did it I wouldn't be MAD, because I can't be mad at a coherent plan when it has felt like we haven't had one since the tank ended. It would definitely be hard to watch them next season, but I can't point to any results we've gotten in the last decade to argue that the conclusion is incorrect.

If we did do that, we'd likely have two pieces to build around - Jack and Dahlin.

If Botterill thinks things are bad enough he wants to tear it all down, he’ll do so regardless of if we get Dahlin.

 

There were reports Botterill’s view was everyone is on the table but Eichel. Seems he meant it literally.

 

I don't get this talk of stripping down to the studs and rebuilding. It's not like they have anything significant to strip away. They need to rebuild the bottom 6, but they have some pieces already... Mittlestadt, Bailey, Smith.... Baptiste maybe, a couple UFAs and you're done.

So supplement the worst team in the league with some players from one of the worst teams in the AHL in the second half, add a couple UFAs and “done”? Done what, ensuring another last place finish?

 

If Friedman’s quote is accurate, it means he doesn’t want to build around the current core. It means guys in the category of O’Reilly, Ristolainen, and Reinhart.

 

Jack is the only guy safe.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Thorny

[bunomatic]

If Botterill thinks things are bad enough he wants to tear it all down, he’ll do so regardless of if we get Dahlin.

 

There were reports Botterill’s view was everyone is on the table but Eichel. Seems he meant it literally.

 

 

So supplement the worst team in the league with some players from one of the worst teams in the AHL in the second half, add a couple UFAs and “done”? Done what, ensuring another last place finish?

 

If Friedman’s quote is accurate, it means he doesn’t want to build around the current core. It means guys like O’Reilly, Ristolainen, and Reinhart.

 

Jack is the only guy safe.

Lets hope Jbots knows what he's doing. I have little confidence in anyone connected to this franchise right now.  

[pi2000]

So supplement the worst team in the league with some players from one of the worst teams in the AHL in the second half, add a couple UFAs and “done”? Done what, ensuring another last place finish?

 

If Friedman’s quote is accurate, it means he doesn’t want to build around the current core. It means guys in the category of O’Reilly, Ristolainen, and Reinhart.

 

Jack is the only guy safe.

 

I don't think BUF is that far off.   They lost 33 games by one goal.     Throwing the baby out with the bathwater would be a huge mistake.    There is talent there... Housley needs to be better, goaltending needs to be better... young guys need to take that step with consistency.     Leftovers poisoned by the tank years need to be shipped out... Larsson, Girgensons, maybe even Risto.. None of them respond well to adversity.   

[Huckleberry]

If Botterill thinks things are bad enough he wants to tear it all down, he’ll do so regardless of if we get Dahlin.

 

There were reports Botterill’s view was everyone is on the table but Eichel. Seems he meant it literally.

 

 

So supplement the worst team in the league with some players from one of the worst teams in the AHL in the second half, add a couple UFAs and “done”? Done what, ensuring another last place finish?

 

If Friedman’s quote is accurate, it means he doesn’t want to build around the current core. It means guys in the category of O’Reilly, Ristolainen, and Reinhart.

 

Jack is the only guy safe.

 

Doubt any of those move, the price is to high.

[LGR4GM]

I don't think BUF is that far off.   They lost 33 games by one goal.     Throwing the baby out with the bathwater would be a huge mistake.    There is talent there... Housley needs to be better, goaltending needs to be better... young guys need to take that step with consistency.     Leftovers poisoned by the tank years need to be shipped out... Larsson, Girgensons, maybe even Risto.. None of them respond well to adversity.   

Robin Lehner - .908sv%

Chad Johnson - . 0891sv%

 

League Average for the top 50 GT: 0.914sv%

 

Also agree with the second bolded. I am starting to wonder if Risto isn't very coachable. He just gives up the blue line consistently. 

Edited April 26, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[etiennep99]

Crazy RO'R trade idea:

 

Ryan O'Reilly & Larsson(C/LW) to Montreal for  Artturi Lehkonen(LW/RW), 1st (2018), 2nd (2018), 3rd (2018)   [Montreal is loaded with 2nds and 3rds this year; and this year is a supposed to be a deep draft, right?].

Edited April 26, 2018 by etiennep99

[LGR4GM]

Montreal is loaded with 2nd's and 4ths. 

[LTS]

I won't try to quote everyone...

 

The statement was "tearing the team down to the studs".

 

There are 20 players on the bench.  How many of them are the "studs" on ANY team?

 

The players who aren't the studs are the drywall it would seem.  There's more drywall than studs in any build.  I don't think it's as extreme as Friedman makes it out to be.

 

The players who are the "studs": Eichel, Reinhart, ROR, Mittlestadt, Okposo, Ristolainen, Scandella, McCabe"  Eight players of 20... the remaining 12 are open to be drywall.  You remove any more of those studs and the house falls down.

 

Now, it might require moving ROR and Bogosian to get him off the books.  Hopefully the team gets the right player back in return.  Perhaps, if Okposo isn't on the list you'll need to bundle him with someone like Ristolainen to get the salary dump.  However, it won't be easy.

 

Pominville and Moulson just need to get buried again.  The cap space isn't required yet and they're gone after next year.

 

The only way this entire plan changes is if they are going in on major UFAs this season and they need to move people out.  (ie. Sign Tavares if he's available and then move ROR and Bogosian, etc.)

[Crusader1969]

The range of points in the five seasons after losing the co-captains ranged from 89 to 100 points, with one division title and two playoff appearances. Then they were .500 during the lockout-shortened 12-13 season. I railed on the core, Millsie and Lindy as much as anyone, but that's not trash.

 

 

How many play-off series wins in this time period?  slice it anyway you want, they weren't good enough and needed to be trashed.

[LGR4GM]

The range of points in the five seasons after losing the co-captains ranged from 89 to 100 points, with one division title and two playoff appearances. Then they were .500 during the lockout-shortened 12-13 season. I railed on the core, Millsie and Lindy as much as anyone, but that's not trash.

They were trash. They almost won a playoff series in 2011. That's it. From 2012 on they have been trash. 

[Sabel79]

They were trash. They almost won a playoff series in 2011. That's it. From 2012 on they have been trash.

 

And that almost won playoff series was more of a massive capitulation.

[Crusader1969]

I won't try to quote everyone...

 

The statement was "tearing the team down to the studs".

 

There are 20 players on the bench.  How many of them are the "studs" on ANY team?

 

The players who aren't the studs are the drywall it would seem.  There's more drywall than studs in any build.  I don't think it's as extreme as Friedman makes it out to be.

 

The players who are the "studs": Eichel, Reinhart, ROR, Mittlestadt, Okposo, Ristolainen, Scandella, McCabe"  Eight players of 20... the remaining 12 are open to be drywall.  You remove any more of those studs and the house falls down.

 

Now, it might require moving ROR and Bogosian to get him off the books.  Hopefully the team gets the right player back in return.  Perhaps, if Okposo isn't on the list you'll need to bundle him with someone like Ristolainen to get the salary dump.  However, it won't be easy.

 

Pominville and Moulson just need to get buried again.  The cap space isn't required yet and they're gone after next year.

 

The only way this entire plan changes is if they are going in on major UFAs this season and they need to move people out.  (ie. Sign Tavares if he's available and then move ROR and Bogosian, etc.)

 

 

Am i the only one who doesn't want ROR traded? can we just get away from the "sign" Tavares posts - why would he come to a last place team? 

[LGR4GM]

After they made the playoffs the last time, the following 2 years they started the nose dive that lead to the tank. 

[WildCard]

Am i the only one who doesn't want ROR traded? can we just get away from the "sign" Tavares posts - why would he come to a last place team? 

HE'S NEVER LEAVING!

 

I fully expect this to come back and bite me in the ass when he and Kane win a Cup in SJ of course