Goat-lending

[Randall Flagg]

I wasn't going to make this topic so soon (we have a whole summer, after all, but I have some other stuff planned for then) but it has come up in the last few GDTs, because our goalies can't stop beach balls, but our defense! But our goalies.

 

I knew it was a problem but it only recently became apparent how big of a problem it is. Lehner and Johnson were both horrendous. For starters,

 

Lehner: 40th in save percentage, .908

Johnson: 57th in save percentage, .893

 

Not pretty, especially considering our team save percentage as a whole dropping from .921 to .904 as a whole, and Lehner put up .920 last year (backup Nilsson with .923). 

But how can we expect our goalies to play behind THIS defense? I mean it was truly awful! They break down all the time. It sucks. Except literally every team's defense breaks down plenty of times. Just for shits and giggles during the intermission tonight I grabbed a few highlight clips from games the lowly, offensively-inept Sabres played against top 10 teams in terms of goals allowed this year, and grabbed these in about 15 minutes:

 

Like I say at the end, I know the Sabres don't hold a candle to these teams defensively, but the point is that defenses quite often have horrible breakdowns and part of a goalie's job is to save their bacon at least some of the time. Ours failed to do this. Furthermore, there were so, so many games that we were in and playing well, only to be deflated by goals at the end of the period, or on soft shots. The amount of goals scored by the other team in the first or last 2 minutes of a period, and the amount of downright softies, was three times as high this season as any other I ever remember watching. It was pitiful. And don't even talk to me about OT and the shootout. Horrible. 

Why do I pin this drop in goalie performance for Lehner (and awful Johnson) on him, and not the Sabres? Even though Lehner is the same guy, but our team probably just got worse? Well, here's the thing about our team getting worse defensively - by any measure, they simply didn't. Here are pretty pictures: 

 

This was last year's heat map, shown where shot attempts were taken by our opponents relative to league average. Here's how they did this year:

 

 

Despite playing "run and gun" (they didn't), the shots from that dangerous center swipe decreased greatly, and they did an overall better job keeping them to the outside. That red area by the net has to be because everyone and their mother knows Lehner can't hug a post to save his life. 

 

Don't like charts, want raw numbers? The Sabres allowed 2656 shots on goal this year compared to 2803 last year. They allowed the SIXTH FEWEST scoring chances against this season at 1697, behind only Boston, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Calgary, and Dallas, all of which except Calgary finished top ten in goals against (gotta be able to PK).

 

Where did the Sabres finish in goals against? Third last. Now, I said the Sabres improved at this: last year they were 21st, in the bottom third of the league, in scoring chances against, with 1810. Only instead of giving up 278 goals like these goofballs did this season, Lehner and Anders gave up 231. That means 47 more goals allowed despite clear evidence that they were not hung out to dry as much this season as they were last. Despite shot totals against being down all year, and shot differentials actually being in our favor more times by game 50 this season than in 82 games last season. 

Still not happy? Well, just like you can weight shot locations based on shot type, whether it's a rebound, whether it's a rush, how far from the net you are, and what league shooting percentage is at that spot, you can also calculate what a goalie is expected to have as their save percentage based on those things being taken into account for in the shots they face. Lehner and Johnson should have been league average, as we had the 15th highest expected save percentage in the league, but Lehner, instead of posting his expected .927, gave us .908. Johnson, the same: .921 -> .893. 

 

In the plus minus thread, I posted an article that showed that while scoring chances for better correlate with future goals than corsi, corsi against better correlates with future goals allowed than scoring chances against, so I'll also throw out that the Sabres were 13th in the league in Corsi-against this season.

 

Between this and our 6th-ranked scoring chances allowed, and every memory of painful goals against being floaters from the point, dribblers under gloves, and bank-ins off of Lehner, along with Chad's utter lack of talent, and Robin's inability to maintain any fundamental base, abandoning it completely to lumber around slowly and close his eyes hoping pucks hit him, there is no surprise to me where we are in the standings, considering what league-average goaltending would have given us with our league-relative defensive zone statistics. Yes, our defense was worse than average in front of him, but worse than average defenses can still limit chances and ours actually did it effectively even though they were often painful to watch. That's the point of the video above. 

League average goaltending, naively calculated, gives us 232 goals against instead of 278. Don't tell me those 46 extra goals couldn't have swung a few games for the team that lost by far the most one goal games in the league, especially given all the late stinkers that totally sucked the momentum out of the bench. 

 

It wasn't until I looked into this stuff that I realized how important it is to fix that position for next year. We need everything. Wingers that can score, wingers and D that can skate, D that can score, D that can play D. But get average goaltending out of this team, and all of a sudden this season doesn't look so dire. Get average goaltending in front of this team and make some smart, nifty upgrades at forward and d, and the optimist will correctly tell you that we have a better chance at getting a lot better than you think we might be able to. 

 

Thoughts? 

 

 

[Sabel79]

I've been banging this drum forever this year. Without all the graphs. It's patently obvious.

[SwampD]

Do charts that are "relative to league average" for each year really tell the story you want them to tell? I think I need to see a chart that shows this year relative to last year to be confident about your point.

 

With that said, our goalies suck.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Wilcox and Ullmark!!

[Randall Flagg]

Do charts that are "relative to league average" for each year really tell the story you want them to tell? I think I need to see a chart that shows this year relative to last year to be confident about your point.

 

With that said, our goalies suck.

That's what the raw numbers are for. The counts are all higher from all areas last season than this season.

 

If I had the raw numbers with which they made the maps, I'd give them, but I don't. Maybe if I pay hockeyviz I'd have access but i ain't doin that.

I get what you're saying though. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[SwampD]

That's what the raw numbers are for. The counts are all higher from all areas last season than this season.

 

If I had the raw numbers with which they made the maps, I'd give them, but I don't. Maybe if I pay hockeyviz I'd have access but i ain't doin that.

Raw numbers give equal weight to all shots, though. I know I saw more goals from guys unchallenged within ten feet from the goal this year than in a long time.

 

In my mind, our D is still the biggest problem with this team.

[Randall Flagg]

-------------------------------------------

Also as a general point, I'm not picking on goalies - I wanna do this for defense too, but I have some ideas that will take some time to put together, so it'll be a couple months. I aim to be done just in time for the draft and free agency. 

Raw numbers give equal weight to all shots, though. I know I saw more goals from guys unchallenged within ten feet from the goal this year than in a long time.

In my mind, our D is still the biggest problem with this team.

But I gave raw numbers for high danger shots too, as well as scoring chances, which each have slightly different definitions, and the expected save percentage, which we were dead average (15th in the league this year versus bottom third last year) calculates shots against weighted by position in the ice, taking into account league shooting percentage from that spot, distance from goal, slot versus the boards etc. So I don't think you're correct not only by my eye test, but also according to these numbers.

That's a valid take for a team that iced three of Gorges/Falk/Beaulieu/Antipin/Bogosian/McCabe in any given game this season, and I just mentioned I have big plans for a more in-depth version of this post for the defense, mainly because I'm far more interested in defensive play than goaltenders in general.

[SwampD]

-------------------------------------------

Also as a general point, I'm not picking on goalies - I wanna do this for defense too, but I have some ideas that will take some time to put together, so it'll be a couple months. I aim to be done just in time for the draft and free agency.

 

But I gave raw numbers for high danger shots too, as well as scoring chances, which each have slightly different definitions, and the expected save percentage, which we were dead average (15th in the league this year versus bottom third last year) calculates shots against weighted by position in the ice, taking into account league shooting percentage from that spot, distance from goal, slot versus the boards etc. So I don't think you're correct not only by my eye test, but also according to these numbers.

That's a valid take for a team that iced three of Gorges/Falk/Beaulieu/Antipin/Bogosian/McCabe in any given game this season, and I just mentioned I have big plans for a more in-depth version of this post for the defense, mainly because I'm far more interested in defensive play than goaltenders in general.

I really hope that someday, you are making charts that show where and how we score the most goals in the league and how we take advantage of other team's weaknesses.

 

I am so tired of sucking. This team sucks. They have sucked for a long time now and I'm at my limits of caring why and how we suck and how we sucked differently last year compared to how we suck this year.

 

Gatdammit! No fans should have to put up with this . off, Sabres! Another wasted year and hundreds of hours I'm not getting back! you!

 

 

I feel better.

 

 

Actually, I don't. you, Sabres.

Edited April 8, 2018 by SwampD

[Randall Flagg]

Swamp, I found something that might be hiding your point - our overall team's expected goals against at even strength is identical to last year's, they're each at 153, so the backup starts compared to Lehner must be offsetting Lehner's drop. 

 

That being said, charts show us clearing up the slot relative to last year (I have a hard time seeing meaningful fluctuations over league sample sizes that are thousands and thousands of shots, especially in a direction that makes "more goals from within ten feet than in a long time" to look like an improvement in that area instead), coupled with over a hundred fewer scoring chances allowed, enough to move from 20 something to 6th best, coupled with shots in general as well as high danger shots decreasing enough to have us jump 6-10 places in the rankings compared to where we were last season, just screams "fix ur goalie sitation" to me, though I also don't disagree that we need to be far better in front of him and bring in a bunch of guys to do so. 

 

I was almost ambivalent about goaltending, figuring that it would work itself out as the team improves, until I looked at this stuff. I just don't normally pay enough attention to care, but the last few weeks have been dreadful in this regard and it really opened my eyes that we don't have one goddamn aspect of this team even close to acceptable yet

I really hope that someday, you are making charts that show where and how we score the most goals in the league and how we take advantage of other team's weaknesses.

I am so ###### tired of sucking. This team ###### sucks. They have ###### sucked for a long time now and I'm at my limits of caring why and how we suck and how we sucked differently last year compared to how we ###### suck this year.

Gatdammit! No fans should have to put up with this ######. ###### off, Sabres! Another wasted ###### year and hundreds of hours I'm not getting back! ###### you!


I feel better.


Actually, I don't. ###### you, Sabres.

Oh man, ain't this right. It would be a lot more fun for me to do and you to read that way for sure.

Edited April 8, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Huckleberry]

I could defend Lehner at start of year, Didn't want to let go of him because we paid a 1st round pick for him.

But after the year he had, I can't really defend him any more.

[Weave]

I see a pretty damned big red blob to the left of our goal in the 2nd graphic that tells me shots went way up from there.  And that is a danger area.  The biggest change I see from Dan to Phil is that the area of the ice that we are most vulnerable switched from center to RW, and we are now getting killed there.  That seems to me much more like a new area of weakness than improvement of any kind.

[Gramps]

Are you counting empty-net goals in your calcs ? 

[Taro T]

I see a pretty damned big red blob to the left of our goal in the 2nd graphic that tells me shots went way up from there.  And that is a danger area.  The biggest change I see from Dan to Phil is that the area of the ice that we are most vulnerable switched from center to RW, and we are now getting killed there.  That seems to me much more like a new area of weakness than improvement of any kind.

There is the big pink blob over on Lehner's glove side where he can't hug the post to save his life. Guessing the total chances from there is more than offset by the bright red circle between the circles & the pink blob over on his stick side.

 

As Randy speculated above, pretty sure that was teams intentionally working to that spot knowing Lehner was AWFUL when the puck was brought up from below the goal line to that side. He REALLY should use the standard VH techinique rather than the reverse VH. With his size, being a bit slow getting across the crease is much less dangerous tgan simply leaving the short side uncovered.

 

Don't really have anything to add to Randy's well thought out post from the analytics side. From the eyeball test side regarding Johnson, if he could make it through the 1st 5 minutes of a game w/out giving up a goal, he would be solid. EVERY game he'd be beat early, but if that puck would go through the crease & wide of the net or Scandella could stop it at the goal line, he'd get his confidence & play well. If not, might as well have put D4rk between the pipes; it couldn't be worse.

 

Lehner's oopses always SEEMED much later in a period (typically, the 3rd) or in OT. (Not referring to the wraparounds - those were an exploitable flaw at any point.)

 

Would really like to see an analysis broken down by game time if the data were available. Expect that Johnson's S% & GAA average in games where he gives up the early goal is significantly worse than ones where he doesn't (even when that goal isn't counted against him). And expect Lehner's GAA & S% are awful in the last 5 minutes of periods & downright attrocious in OT but look real good the 1st 15 minutes of regulation periods.

[rakish]

Would really like to see an analysis broken down by game time if the data were available. Expect that Johnson's S% & GAA average in games where he gives up the early goal is significantly worse than ones where he doesn't (even when that goal isn't counted against him). And expect Lehner's GAA & S% are awful in the last 5 minutes of periods & downright attrocious in OT but look real good the 1st 15 minutes of regulation periods.

 

Johnson:

Opponent - Description of goal - How many seconds in

 

Not sure on the seconds when they pull the goaltender, also haven't downloaded the most recent games

 

NYI #72 BEAUVILLIER(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #2 LEDDY(1); #53 CIZIKAS(1) 1119

N.J #23 NOESEN(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assist: #39 GIBBONS(1) 388

N.J #39 GIBBONS(1), Snap, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #13 HISCHIER(1); #90 JOHANSSON(1) 1136

N.J #63 BRATT(2), Backhand, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #14 HENRIQUE(1); #25 MUELLER(1) 1523

N.J #90 JOHANSSON(1), Backhand, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assist: #9 HALL(2) 1669

N.J #63 BRATT(3), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #9 HALL(3); #6 GREENE(1) 1939

N.J #90 JOHANSSON(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 16 ft.Assist: #63 BRATT(2) 2336

ANA #21 WAGNER(1), Backhand, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #50 VERMETTE(1); #42 MANSON(4) 2148

VGK #24 LINDBERG(3), Snap, Off. Zone, 30 ft.Assists: #19 SMITH(3); #71 KARLSSON(2) 855

VGK #89 TUCH(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 56 ft.Assists: #5 ENGELLAND(2); #13 LEIPSIC(4) 1600

VGK #19 SMITH(1), Wrist, Off. Zone, 38 ft.Assists: #77 HUNT(1); #6 MILLER(1) 2317

VGK #57 PERRON(1), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #18 NEAL(1); #21 EAKIN(3) 2630

VGK #57 PERRON(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 28 ft.Assists: #47 SBISA(4); #18 NEAL(2) 3654

VAN #60 GRANLUND(1), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #15 DORSETT(1); #20 SUTTER(1) 716

VAN #15 DORSETT(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 15 ft.Assists: #20 SUTTER(2); #8 TANEV(2) 1552

VAN #22 SEDIN(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #33 SEDIN(3); #18 VIRTANEN(1) 1690

CBJ #28 BJORKSTRAND(2), Snap, Off. Zone, 47 ft.Assists: #22 MILANO(1); #3 JONES(5) 720

CBJ #3 JONES(2), Snap, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #17 DUBINSKY(2); #13 ATKINSON(1) 2120

CBJ #71 FOLIGNO(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 4 ft.Assist: #7 JOHNSON(3) 2258

CBJ #11 CALVERT(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 6 ft.Assists: #65 NUTIVAARA(1); #27 MURRAY(2) 2299

CBJ #77 ANDERSON(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 42 ft.Assists: #9 PANARIN(9); #10 WENNBERG(6) 3561

DAL #91 SEGUIN(8), Slap, Off. Zone, 21 ft.Assists: #3 KLINGBERG(10); #47 RADULOV(7) 144

DAL #21 ROUSSEL(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #3 KLINGBERG(11); #91 SEGUIN(7) 1703

MTL #65 SHAW(4), Wrist, Off. Zone, 57 ft.Assists: #92 DROUIN(9); #67 PACIORETTY(5) 2461

MTL #67 PACIORETTY(7), Backhand, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assist: #24 DANAULT(8) 3788

CAR #14 WILLIAMS(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #16 KRUGER(2); #22 PESCE(3) 2085

CAR #20 AHO(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #86 TERAVAINEN(10); #4 FLEURY(4) 3314

MIN #63 ENNIS(4), Backhand, Off. Zone, 22 ft.Assists: #17 FOLIGNO(5); #3 COYLE(3) 539

MIN #64 GRANLUND(4), Wrist, Off. Zone, 41 ft. 748

MIN #22 NIEDERREITER(7), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #9 KOIVU(9); #20 SUTER(10) 868

PIT #71 MALKIN(8), Snap, Off. Zone, 17 ft.Assists: #59 GUENTZEL(7); #3 MAATTA(10) 1124

PIT #62 HAGELIN(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #17 RUST(11); #15 SHEAHAN(6) 1536

PIT #72 HORNQVIST(10), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #87 CROSBY(17); #58 LETANG(18) 2340

PIT #81 KESSEL(12), Snap, Off. Zone, 25 ft.Assist: #71 MALKIN(16) 3194

CAR #14 WILLIAMS(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #23 MCGINN(8); #11 STAAL(11) 1816

CAR #11 STAAL(8), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #74 SLAVIN(5); #14 WILLIAMS(15) 2580

CAR #7 RYAN(6), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assist: #22 PESCE(5) 2643

CAR #28 LINDHOLM(9), Wrist, Off. Zone, 18 ft.Assists: #7 RYAN(11); #20 AHO(15) 2817

CAR #74 SLAVIN(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 46 ft.Assists: #28 LINDHOLM(9); #20 AHO(16) 3735

CAR #20 AHO(8), Wrist, Off. Zone, 20 ft.Assists: #22 PESCE(6); #86 TERAVAINEN(18) 33

CAR #11 STAAL(10), Deflected, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #28 LINDHOLM(10); #86 TERAVAINEN(19) 1313

CAR #27 FAULK(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #20 AHO(17); #86 TERAVAINEN(20) 1475

CAR #27 FAULK(3), Snap, Off. Zone, 46 ft.Assists: #74 SLAVIN(6); #53 SKINNER(14) 1876

WPG #33 BYFUGLIEN(1), Slap, Off. Zone, 61 ft.Assists: #26 WHEELER(35); #29 LAINE(17) 566

WPG #8 TROUBA(3), Slap, Off. Zone, 55 ft.Assists: #9 COPP(7); #15 HENDRICKS(7) 945

WPG #26 WHEELER(14), Snap, Off. Zone, 31 ft.Assists: #57 MYERS(15); #27 EHLERS(15) 1565

WPG #18 LITTLE(8), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #8 TROUBA(12); #44 MORRISSEY(12) 2424

WPG #81 CONNOR(14), Wrist, Off. Zone, 7 ft.Assists: #26 WHEELER(38); #8 TROUBA(14) 683

WPG #27 EHLERS(19), Wrist, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #57 MYERS(18); #18 LITTLE(18) 856

WPG #81 CONNOR(15), Snap, Off. Zone, 16 ft.Assist: #8 TROUBA(15) 1542

DAL #23 LINDELL(5), Wrist, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #47 RADULOV(26); #14 BENN(27) 156

DAL #12 FAKSA(12), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #28 JOHNS(5); #21 ROUSSEL(8) 479

DAL #18 PITLICK(8), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 22 ft.Assists: #3 KLINGBERG(40); #12 FAKSA(11) 1072

CGY #19 TKACHUK(14), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #13 GAUDREAU(40); #5 GIORDANO(14) 480

FLA #3 YANDLE(6), Slap, Off. Zone, 36 ft.Assists: #16 BARKOV(29); #21 TROCHECK(29) 647

FLA #19 MATHESON(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 58 ft.Assist: #27 BJUGSTAD(14) 850

FLA #62 MALGIN(8), Backhand, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #3 YANDLE(22); #11 HUBERDEAU(32) 1072

FLA #7 SCEVIOUR(7), Backhand, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #90 MCCANN(8); #3 YANDLE(23) 3437

BOS #51 SPOONER(9), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #74 DEBRUSK(18); #47 KRUG(25) 2079

BOS #42 BACKES(10), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 16 ft.Assists: #37 BERGERON(23); #63 MARCHAND(31) 3541

T.B #37 GOURDE(22), Deflected, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #86 KUCHEROV(42); #77 HEDMAN(30) 803

T.B #90 NAMESTNIKOV(19), Snap, Off. Zone, 8 ft. 1999

T.B #24 CALLAHAN(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #98 SERGACHEV(22); #21 POINT(28) 3096

WSH #8 OVECHKIN(35), Deflected, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #29 DJOOS(11); #74 CARLSON(36) 1278

WSH #74 CARLSON(11), Snap, Off. Zone, 2 ft.Assists: #77 OSHIE(21); #13 VRANA(9) 2013

BOS #73 MCAVOY(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #88 PASTRNAK(33); #63 MARCHAND(34) 1415

T.B #89 CONACHER(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #5 GIRARDI(10); #37 GOURDE(27) 1083

TOR #47 KOMAROV(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #29 NYLANDER(36); #12 MARLEAU(16) 1192

TOR #47 KOMAROV(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #15 MARTIN(9); #22 ZAITSEV(8) 1848

TOR #16 MARNER(18), Snap, Off. Zone, 33 ft.Assists: #8 CARRICK(5); #44 RIELLY(32) 3477

CGY #93 BENNETT(10), Wrist, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #77 JANKOWSKI(8); #24 HAMONIC(10) 335

CGY #77 JANKOWSKI(12), Snap, Off. Zone, 37 ft.Assists: #93 BENNETT(15); #7 BRODIE(27) 515

CGY #5 GIORDANO(12), Slap, Off. Zone, 53 ft.Assists: #79 FERLAND(15); #23 MONAHAN(30) 1500

CGY #23 MONAHAN(30), Snap, Off. Zone, 32 ft.Assists: #13 GAUDREAU(55); #7 BRODIE(28) 1561

CHI #82 OESTERLE(5), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 15 ft.Assists: #88 KANE(43); #19 TOEWS(31) 1695

CHI #13 JURCO(4), Deflected, Off. Zone, 13 ft. 2055

CHI #19 TOEWS(20), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 7 ft.Assists: #20 SAAD(15); #88 KANE(44) 2420

ARI #20 STROME(2), Deflected, Off. Zone, 3 ft.Assists: #33 GOLIGOSKI(22); #11 PERLINI(12) 218

ARI #21 STEPAN(13), Wrist, Off. Zone, 35 ft.Assists: #23 EKMAN-LARSSON(26); #9 KELLER(34) 1064

TOR #43 KADRI(30), Snap, Off. Zone, 21 ft.Assists: #16 MARNER(45); #12 MARLEAU(19) 2251

TOR #12 MARLEAU(24), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #34 MATTHEWS(24); #51 GARDINER(40) 2322

DET #72 ATHANASIOU(15), Wrist, Off. Zone, 18 ft.Assists: #8 ABDELKADER(21); #55 KRONWALL(19) 110

DET #65 DEKEYSER(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 17 ft.Assists: #14 NYQUIST(17); #40 ZETTERBERG(40) 610

DET #77 SVECHNIKOV(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 31 ft.Assists: #39 MANTHA(21); #71 LARKIN(45) 1019

NSH #76 SUBBAN(16), Deflected, Off. Zone, 46 ft.Assists: #59 JOSI(38); #92 JOHANSEN(37) 179

NSH #51 WATSON(13), Deflected, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #14 EKHOLM(23); #13 BONINO(13) 1020

NSH #8 TURRIS(16), Snap, Off. Zone, 32 ft.Assists: #15 SMITH(25); #22 FIALA(25) 1320

NSH #13 BONINO(12), Backhand, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #4 ELLIS(20); #51 WATSON(5) 1970

TOR #18 JOHNSSON(2), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #19 PLEKANEC(20); #46 POLAK(10) 344

TOR #34 MATTHEWS(32), Wrist, Off. Zone, 27 ft.Assists: #44 RIELLY(45); #18 JOHNSSON(1) 1501

TOR #29 NYLANDER(18), Wrist, Off. Zone, 18 ft.Assist: #34 MATTHEWS(27) 1659

TOR #29 NYLANDER(19), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assist: #11 HYMAN(25) 1832

TOR #34 MATTHEWS(33), Wrist, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #29 NYLANDER(40); #51 GARDINER(45) 2782

[Weave]

Thats a lot of goals.

[Taro T]

Johnson:

Opponent - Description of goal - How many seconds in

 

Not sure on the seconds when they pull the goaltender, also haven't downloaded the most recent games

 

NYI #72 BEAUVILLIER(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #2 LEDDY(1); #53 CIZIKAS(1) 1119

N.J #23 NOESEN(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assist: #39 GIBBONS(1) 388

N.J #39 GIBBONS(1), Snap, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #13 HISCHIER(1); #90 JOHANSSON(1) 1136

N.J #63 BRATT(2), Backhand, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #14 HENRIQUE(1); #25 MUELLER(1) 1523

N.J #90 JOHANSSON(1), Backhand, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assist: #9 HALL(2) 1669

N.J #63 BRATT(3), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #9 HALL(3); #6 GREENE(1) 1939

N.J #90 JOHANSSON(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 16 ft.Assist: #63 BRATT(2) 2336

ANA #21 WAGNER(1), Backhand, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #50 VERMETTE(1); #42 MANSON(4) 2148

VGK #24 LINDBERG(3), Snap, Off. Zone, 30 ft.Assists: #19 SMITH(3); #71 KARLSSON(2) 855

VGK #89 TUCH(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 56 ft.Assists: #5 ENGELLAND(2); #13 LEIPSIC(4) 1600

VGK #19 SMITH(1), Wrist, Off. Zone, 38 ft.Assists: #77 HUNT(1); #6 MILLER(1) 2317

VGK #57 PERRON(1), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #18 NEAL(1); #21 EAKIN(3) 2630

VGK #57 PERRON(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 28 ft.Assists: #47 SBISA(4); #18 NEAL(2) 3654

VAN #60 GRANLUND(1), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #15 DORSETT(1); #20 SUTTER(1) 716

VAN #15 DORSETT(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 15 ft.Assists: #20 SUTTER(2); #8 TANEV(2) 1552

VAN #22 SEDIN(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #33 SEDIN(3); #18 VIRTANEN(1) 1690

CBJ #28 BJORKSTRAND(2), Snap, Off. Zone, 47 ft.Assists: #22 MILANO(1); #3 JONES(5) 720

CBJ #3 JONES(2), Snap, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #17 DUBINSKY(2); #13 ATKINSON(1) 2120

CBJ #71 FOLIGNO(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 4 ft.Assist: #7 JOHNSON(3) 2258

CBJ #11 CALVERT(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 6 ft.Assists: #65 NUTIVAARA(1); #27 MURRAY(2) 2299

CBJ #77 ANDERSON(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 42 ft.Assists: #9 PANARIN(9); #10 WENNBERG(6) 3561

DAL #91 SEGUIN(8), Slap, Off. Zone, 21 ft.Assists: #3 KLINGBERG(10); #47 RADULOV(7) 144

DAL #21 ROUSSEL(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #3 KLINGBERG(11); #91 SEGUIN(7) 1703

MTL #65 SHAW(4), Wrist, Off. Zone, 57 ft.Assists: #92 DROUIN(9); #67 PACIORETTY(5) 2461

MTL #67 PACIORETTY(7), Backhand, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assist: #24 DANAULT(8) 3788

CAR #14 WILLIAMS(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #16 KRUGER(2); #22 PESCE(3) 2085

CAR #20 AHO(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #86 TERAVAINEN(10); #4 FLEURY(4) 3314

MIN #63 ENNIS(4), Backhand, Off. Zone, 22 ft.Assists: #17 FOLIGNO(5); #3 COYLE(3) 539

MIN #64 GRANLUND(4), Wrist, Off. Zone, 41 ft. 748

MIN #22 NIEDERREITER(7), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #9 KOIVU(9); #20 SUTER(10) 868

PIT #71 MALKIN(8), Snap, Off. Zone, 17 ft.Assists: #59 GUENTZEL(7); #3 MAATTA(10) 1124

PIT #62 HAGELIN(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #17 RUST(11); #15 SHEAHAN(6) 1536

PIT #72 HORNQVIST(10), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #87 CROSBY(17); #58 LETANG(18) 2340

PIT #81 KESSEL(12), Snap, Off. Zone, 25 ft.Assist: #71 MALKIN(16) 3194

CAR #14 WILLIAMS(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #23 MCGINN(8); #11 STAAL(11) 1816

CAR #11 STAAL(8), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #74 SLAVIN(5); #14 WILLIAMS(15) 2580

CAR #7 RYAN(6), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assist: #22 PESCE(5) 2643

CAR #28 LINDHOLM(9), Wrist, Off. Zone, 18 ft.Assists: #7 RYAN(11); #20 AHO(15) 2817

CAR #74 SLAVIN(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 46 ft.Assists: #28 LINDHOLM(9); #20 AHO(16) 3735

CAR #20 AHO(8), Wrist, Off. Zone, 20 ft.Assists: #22 PESCE(6); #86 TERAVAINEN(18) 33

CAR #11 STAAL(10), Deflected, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #28 LINDHOLM(10); #86 TERAVAINEN(19) 1313

CAR #27 FAULK(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #20 AHO(17); #86 TERAVAINEN(20) 1475

CAR #27 FAULK(3), Snap, Off. Zone, 46 ft.Assists: #74 SLAVIN(6); #53 SKINNER(14) 1876

WPG #33 BYFUGLIEN(1), Slap, Off. Zone, 61 ft.Assists: #26 WHEELER(35); #29 LAINE(17) 566

WPG #8 TROUBA(3), Slap, Off. Zone, 55 ft.Assists: #9 COPP(7); #15 HENDRICKS(7) 945

WPG #26 WHEELER(14), Snap, Off. Zone, 31 ft.Assists: #57 MYERS(15); #27 EHLERS(15) 1565

WPG #18 LITTLE(8), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #8 TROUBA(12); #44 MORRISSEY(12) 2424

WPG #81 CONNOR(14), Wrist, Off. Zone, 7 ft.Assists: #26 WHEELER(38); #8 TROUBA(14) 683

WPG #27 EHLERS(19), Wrist, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #57 MYERS(18); #18 LITTLE(18) 856

WPG #81 CONNOR(15), Snap, Off. Zone, 16 ft.Assist: #8 TROUBA(15) 1542

DAL #23 LINDELL(5), Wrist, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #47 RADULOV(26); #14 BENN(27) 156

DAL #12 FAKSA(12), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #28 JOHNS(5); #21 ROUSSEL(8) 479

DAL #18 PITLICK(8), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 22 ft.Assists: #3 KLINGBERG(40); #12 FAKSA(11) 1072

CGY #19 TKACHUK(14), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #13 GAUDREAU(40); #5 GIORDANO(14) 480

FLA #3 YANDLE(6), Slap, Off. Zone, 36 ft.Assists: #16 BARKOV(29); #21 TROCHECK(29) 647

FLA #19 MATHESON(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 58 ft.Assist: #27 BJUGSTAD(14) 850

FLA #62 MALGIN(8), Backhand, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #3 YANDLE(22); #11 HUBERDEAU(32) 1072

FLA #7 SCEVIOUR(7), Backhand, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #90 MCCANN(8); #3 YANDLE(23) 3437

BOS #51 SPOONER(9), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #74 DEBRUSK(18); #47 KRUG(25) 2079

BOS #42 BACKES(10), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 16 ft.Assists: #37 BERGERON(23); #63 MARCHAND(31) 3541

T.B #37 GOURDE(22), Deflected, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #86 KUCHEROV(42); #77 HEDMAN(30) 803

T.B #90 NAMESTNIKOV(19), Snap, Off. Zone, 8 ft. 1999

T.B #24 CALLAHAN(3), Wrist, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #98 SERGACHEV(22); #21 POINT(28) 3096

WSH #8 OVECHKIN(35), Deflected, Off. Zone, 9 ft.Assists: #29 DJOOS(11); #74 CARLSON(36) 1278

WSH #74 CARLSON(11), Snap, Off. Zone, 2 ft.Assists: #77 OSHIE(21); #13 VRANA(9) 2013

BOS #73 MCAVOY(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #88 PASTRNAK(33); #63 MARCHAND(34) 1415

T.B #89 CONACHER(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #5 GIRARDI(10); #37 GOURDE(27) 1083

TOR #47 KOMAROV(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #29 NYLANDER(36); #12 MARLEAU(16) 1192

TOR #47 KOMAROV(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #15 MARTIN(9); #22 ZAITSEV(8) 1848

TOR #16 MARNER(18), Snap, Off. Zone, 33 ft.Assists: #8 CARRICK(5); #44 RIELLY(32) 3477

CGY #93 BENNETT(10), Wrist, Off. Zone, 19 ft.Assists: #77 JANKOWSKI(8); #24 HAMONIC(10) 335

CGY #77 JANKOWSKI(12), Snap, Off. Zone, 37 ft.Assists: #93 BENNETT(15); #7 BRODIE(27) 515

CGY #5 GIORDANO(12), Slap, Off. Zone, 53 ft.Assists: #79 FERLAND(15); #23 MONAHAN(30) 1500

CGY #23 MONAHAN(30), Snap, Off. Zone, 32 ft.Assists: #13 GAUDREAU(55); #7 BRODIE(28) 1561

CHI #82 OESTERLE(5), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 15 ft.Assists: #88 KANE(43); #19 TOEWS(31) 1695

CHI #13 JURCO(4), Deflected, Off. Zone, 13 ft. 2055

CHI #19 TOEWS(20), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 7 ft.Assists: #20 SAAD(15); #88 KANE(44) 2420

ARI #20 STROME(2), Deflected, Off. Zone, 3 ft.Assists: #33 GOLIGOSKI(22); #11 PERLINI(12) 218

ARI #21 STEPAN(13), Wrist, Off. Zone, 35 ft.Assists: #23 EKMAN-LARSSON(26); #9 KELLER(34) 1064

TOR #43 KADRI(30), Snap, Off. Zone, 21 ft.Assists: #16 MARNER(45); #12 MARLEAU(19) 2251

TOR #12 MARLEAU(24), Wrist, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #34 MATTHEWS(24); #51 GARDINER(40) 2322

DET #72 ATHANASIOU(15), Wrist, Off. Zone, 18 ft.Assists: #8 ABDELKADER(21); #55 KRONWALL(19) 110

DET #65 DEKEYSER(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 17 ft.Assists: #14 NYQUIST(17); #40 ZETTERBERG(40) 610

DET #77 SVECHNIKOV(2), Wrist, Off. Zone, 31 ft.Assists: #39 MANTHA(21); #71 LARKIN(45) 1019

NSH #76 SUBBAN(16), Deflected, Off. Zone, 46 ft.Assists: #59 JOSI(38); #92 JOHANSEN(37) 179

NSH #51 WATSON(13), Deflected, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assists: #14 EKHOLM(23); #13 BONINO(13) 1020

NSH #8 TURRIS(16), Snap, Off. Zone, 32 ft.Assists: #15 SMITH(25); #22 FIALA(25) 1320

NSH #13 BONINO(12), Backhand, Off. Zone, 12 ft.Assists: #4 ELLIS(20); #51 WATSON(5) 1970

TOR #18 JOHNSSON(2), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #19 PLEKANEC(20); #46 POLAK(10) 344

TOR #34 MATTHEWS(32), Wrist, Off. Zone, 27 ft.Assists: #44 RIELLY(45); #18 JOHNSSON(1) 1501

TOR #29 NYLANDER(18), Wrist, Off. Zone, 18 ft.Assist: #34 MATTHEWS(27) 1659

TOR #29 NYLANDER(19), Wrist, Off. Zone, 13 ft.Assist: #11 HYMAN(25) 1832

TOR #34 MATTHEWS(33), Wrist, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #29 NYLANDER(40); #51 GARDINER(45) 2782

So, maybe the eye test observation has a smidge ('bout a mile wide ;)) of a recency bias. That early goal given up was there 4 out of the last 5 (happened in TB as well & then in FLA, though to no fault of him in that occurance) & just missed being 5 for 5 by about 30 seconds.

 

:oops:

 

Thanks for posting the data. :beer:

Edited April 8, 2018 by Taro T

[Randall Flagg]

Ullmark is what, 24?

 

Our best chance at this moment is if hes ready and hits his potential.

 

That can change with a quick trade but it's pretty bleak right now.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

We haven't had a good goat-lender in a pretty long time.

 

Miller was OK, but even he had his moments.

 

Bottom line is that we have maybe a third of an NHL roster and no goat-lenders.  I hope Ullsie turns into something.

[darksabre]

We haven't had a good goat-lender in a pretty long time.

 

Miller was OK, but even he had his moments.

 

Bottom line is that we have maybe a third of an NHL roster and no goat-lenders. I hope Ullsie turns into something.

Miller was completely underrated here. He should have been a Sabre for life.

[Randall Flagg]

Miller was completely underrated here. He should have been a Sabre for life.

His stats in Anaheim are like still good, in 28 games

 

Could be a function of that glorious defense though

[Stoner]

Miller was completely underrated here. He should have been a Sabre for life.

The memories are thankfully fading, but didn't Vanek and Miller opt-out of the tank?

[rakish]

Ok, you guys aren't going to buy this one at all:

 

Goaltender skill comes in the shape of a bell curve, and as such, there is a fair amount of difference between the best and the second best in the world, but very little difference between the 31st and the 62nd, meaning we can judge the context of the defense by the stats of the backup goaltender (see! I knew you'd go ape ###)

 

The context of the defense isn't a stat we have, it has little to do with the distance of the shot, it has a lot to do with the pass just prior to the shot (does it move the goaltender?). A good example is the shot from the point, which is fairly meaningless if the goaltender can see it and it doesn't bounce off anything on the way.

 

So valuing goaltenders is looking at the difference between your best guy and the standard backup. Does Johnson qualify as a standard backup? I think he does.

 

On another subject, what do you do with Lehner? It looks like to me that things were said between Lehner and someone else, and he won't be back. If you offer him a contract, he might sign it.

[Weave]

The memories are thankfully fading, but didn't Vanek and Miller opt-out of the tank?

 

That is how I remember it.  they didn't want to stick around for a complete overhaul.

[darksabre]

The memories are thankfully fading, but didn't Vanek and Miller opt-out of the tank?

I think Darcy basically told them he was shipping them out to do them a favor. Unfortunately they've both just bounced around since then instead of landing anywhere long term. I can't help but think they might have preferred staying here despite the rebuild. I don't think either guy ever really wanted to leave Buffalo.

[Stoner]

That is how I remember it.  they didn't want to stick around for a complete overhaul.

And Terry even wanted to make Vanek the highest paid player in the league?