How badly did the tank fail?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

16 hours ago, Weave said:

LOL, Crusader thinks the pro tankers took abuse.  You were in the greater majority dude.  It came back in spades for the other side.

Like standing behind and supporting a son or daughter who made a disappointing life changing decision, I'll cheer this team and support it because it is part of me.

Will you marry me?

Your post sums up everything perfectly.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Wait, do people think the tank was a bad idea? 

[Kruppstahl]

13 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Thank god we tanked, otherwise we couldn't have traded Pu for Skinner, a 4th for Sheary, or signed Carter Hutton

True, but if this whole thing works out according to plan, the workhorses that do the heavy lifting for years to come will be named Eichel, Dahlin, and maybe even Reinhart. 

The only way you get those guys in this league is if you are picking at the top, or if you trade for such players when they are old and long past their sell by date.

If our top picks prove to not be the critical pieces to the pie, you might have a point, but that is highly unlikely.

 

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The second tank has been a great success.  We tanked for Dahlin, finally got lucky and with the seeds from the first tank (Sam and Jack) we have blossomed in just Jbot's 2nd full season as GM.

The first tank would have likely succeeded as well had we had a competent GM who knew how to evaluate talent, draft and development talent and not waste assets to hurry a turnaround.

Edited November 23, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The second tank has been a great success.  We tanked for Dahlin, finally got lucky and with the seeds from the first tank (Sam and Jack) we have blossomed in just Jbot's 2nd full season as GM.

The first tank would have likely succeeded as well had we had a competent GM who knew how to evaluate talent, draft and development talent and not waste assets to hurry a turnaround.

They did not tank for Dahlin.  They just were horrible.  Geez.

[Claude_Verret]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The second tank has been a great success.  We tanked for Dahlin, finally got lucky and with the seeds from the first tank (Sam and Jack) we have blossomed in just Jbot's 2nd full season as GM.

The first tank would have likely succeeded as well had we had a competent GM who knew how to evaluate talent, draft and development talent and not waste assets to hurry a turnaround.

This is a perfect example of how the discussion around this topic will forever be a clusterfukc.

The Sabres tanked for two back to back seasons only, with the prizes being Reinhart and Eichel. They purposely attempted to ice an awful team both those years, finished last, "lost" the lottery and drafted 2nd overall to draft the aforementioned players.

In no way, shape or form did the Sabres go out of their way to finish DFL last season, yet they did anyway and ended up being rewarded with Dahlin.

If people can't even agree and understand what tanking even is, then of course there never can be an honest discussion as to whether the strategy was successful or not.

Bottom line is the Sabres employed a PART of a team building strategy that other franchises have also tried and been rewarded for. It was a strategy that the Buffalo Sabres franchise hadn't ever tried in their history. It remains a work in progress. 

 

 

 

[pi2000]

23 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Thank god we tanked, otherwise we couldn't have traded Pu for Skinner, a 4th for Sheary, or signed Carter Hutton

Skinner would've looked great playing next to Dylan Strome.

[GASabresIUFAN]

24 minutes ago, Claude_Verret said:

This is a perfect example of how the discussion around this topic will forever be a clusterfukc.

The Sabres tanked for two back to back seasons only, with the prizes being Reinhart and Eichel. They purposely attempted to ice an awful team both those years, finished last, "lost" the lottery and drafted 2nd overall to draft the aforementioned players.

In no way, shape or form did the Sabres go out of their way to finish DFL last season, yet they did anyway and ended up being rewarded with Dahlin.

If people can't even agree and understand what tanking even is, then of course there never can be an honest discussion as to whether the strategy was successful or not.

Bottom line is the Sabres employed a PART of a team building strategy that other franchises have also tried and been rewarded for. It was a strategy that the Buffalo Sabres franchise hadn't ever tried in their history. It remains a work in progress. 

 

 

 

You don’t think they tanked.  Lets look at the players Jbot hired to be our depth last season

At forward he signed Pouliot, Nolan, Josefson, and Griffith and then traded for Wilson. He also didn’t acquire anyone as insurance for a recovering Okposo.

On defense he kept Falk and Gorges, signed Tennyson, traded for Baloo.  He also signed TM’s Antipin and then kept him all season despite his less then stellar play. 

He knowingly fielded a team with zero quality depth, who were slow and unmotivated.  Dudacek and I discussed for days prior to the season that our team had no depth scoring and a 3rd and 4th line that weren’t even decent nhl players.  We also discussed how slow and inadequate the 3rd pairing D.  

I wasn’t very surprised when the team failed because we knew it wasn’t good enough from day 1.  You may not want to call it a tank, but the lousy season gave Jbot an excuse to continue to get rid of TM’s players and rebuild it with speed and skill in the image of his Pittsburgh teams and PH’s Nashville teams.

 

As I’ve said before the tank wasn’t a failure, but TM failed to execute the strategy.

 

Edited November 23, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Eleven said:

They did not tank for Dahlin.  They just were horrible.  Geez.

This is confusing the hell out of me as well. The "tank" for Dahlin was the year we were supposed to lose in the cup final in the original tank plans.

Edited November 23, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[inkman]

21 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Wait, do people think the tank was a bad idea? 

A ton 

[Thwomp!]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You don’t think they tanked.  Lets look at the players Jbot hired to be our depth last season

At forward he signed Pouliot, Nolan, Josefson, and Griffith and then traded for Wilson. He also didn’t acquire anyone as insurance for a recovering Okposo.

On defense he kept Falk and Gorges, signed Tennyson, traded for Baloo.  He also signed TM’s Antipin and then kept him all season despite his less then stellar play. 

He knowingly fielded a team with zero quality depth, who were slow and unmotivated.  Dudacek and I discussed for days prior to the season that our team had no depth scoring and a 3rd and 4th line that weren’t even decent nhl players.  We also discussed how slow and inadequate the 3rd pairing D.  

I wasn’t very surprised when the team failed because we knew it wasn’t good enough from day 1.  You may not want to call it a tank, but the lousy season gave Jbot an excuse to continue to get rid of TM’s players and rebuild it with speed and skill in the image of his Pittsburgh teams and PH’s Nashville teams.

 

As I’ve said before the tank wasn’t a failure, but TM failed to execute the strategy.

 

If at first you don't succeed, tank, tank again.

I think last year was a mini tank from the beginning.  It was labeled as an "evaluation year" very early on and when the team was awful, it was allowed to continue to be awful for the rest of the season.

It allowed Jbot and Phil to evaluate who to keep around and what was needed on and off the ice.  The moves made and the team's performance this year indicate who/what the problems were and that Jbot was able to more than adequately address them.

Unfortunately Jbot would have been perfect for the first rebuild, but at least I'm glad he's here now.

Plus the cap was a mess (Thanks Timmy!) for a team that was not very good.  It takes time to clean that mess up and we're still in the process.  Luckily, (so far) Bogo is finally playing adequately and in the lineup.  His cap hit is (currently) not as big of a problem as it had previously been.

[pastajoe]

The tank worked, it put the Sabres in position to win the lottery for McDavid. We got the next best thing with Eichel as the foundation to build around. The rebuild took longer, but now we’re seeing the benefit of “raking the floor” of dead wood to make room for the new growth.

[GASabresIUFAN]

One of the biggest problems with this discussion has always been separating the strategy of tanking and then the execution of the rebuild after the tank.

The rules at the time guaranteed the the 30th team got either the 1st or 2nd overall pick.  Therefore with McDavid and Eichel on the board it made sense to try to secure one of them for a franchise that hadn't had a true franchise skater since Pat LaFontaine.  (edit requested and accepted)

The strategy also allowed the franchise to stockpile 1st and 2nd rd picks and the franchise marketed that stockpile.  

From the standpoint of getting Eichel and stockpiling picks the tank worked.  

The problem became TM's execution of the rebuild post tank.  He and his rebuild were and are an abysmal failure.  In retrospect what move, besides drafting Eichel and Reinhart (and even the Reinhart choice is debatable), by TM did the franchise come out ahead?  Lehner, Gorges, Kane/Bogo, ROR, Fasching, Kulikov, Okposo, Vesey, McGinn, Disco Dan, Chad Johnson?  IMHO not one thing TM tried worked in the end.  To make matters worse he spent us to the cap with over $80 mill in actual salary and fielded a terrible team.

The McNabb/Fasching mess is my least favorite (after Lehner).  DR traded Regher top LA for 2 2nds, TM then traded those 2 2nds and McNabb back to LA for Fasching and Delo.  Jbot trying to get something for those two players traded Delo for AHL star Redmond and Fasching for D prospect Hickey.  So ultimately we have Regher, 2 2nds and McNabb for AHL Redmond and a medium D prospect in Hickey.  Wow! Talk about a fail.

Jbot has been turning lemons into lemonade since he was hired.  He has recovered all 3 of the wasted 1st rd picks my trading Kane and ROR and getting 2 1sts and Thompson (26th overall in 2016).  Thompson is an equal young player or better to the guys chosen with our former picks Roslovic (25th overall in 2015) and Colin White (21st overall in 2015).  Hopefully, one of the picks becomes a D as good as Zadorov.  Unlike TM, Jbot has made smart value moves to enhance the roster (Hutton, Skinner, Sheary, Scandella), seems to be drafting well (although only time will tell), rebuilt the Amerks and has built system wide depth all in 2 off-seasons.  

If Jbot had taken the job initially instead of TM,  I think we'd have been a playoff team already.  Interestingly I'm not sure if the team would have as much upside as the team does now.  Dahlin and Mittelstadt have added another layer of top talent that would not have been here but for TM's ineptitude.

Edited November 23, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Sabel79]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

The rules at the time guaranteed the the 30th team got either the 1st or 2nd overall pick.  Therefore with McDavid and Eichel on the board it made sense to try to secure one of them for a franchise that hadn't had a true franchise skater since Pat LaFontaine.  

 

fify.

[Weave]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One of the biggest problems with this discussion has always been separating the strategy of tanking and then the execution of the rebuild after the tank.

 

 

That is because you cannot perform the first without an expectation of performing the second.  You absolutely cannot separate a rebuild from a preceding tank.  When a tank exists, like sith, it must come with an understudy pair.

The biggest problem with the discussion was that although the tank was sold as a short term event, you cannot tank for 2 seasons without sufficiently removing talent from the roster to ensure a long, arduous rebuild period.  A period that is roughly the same length of time as a rebuild that didn't include tanking.

Edited November 23, 2018 by Weave

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

 

That is because you cannot perform the first without an expectation of performing the second.  You absolutely cannot separate a rebuild from a tank.  Like siths, they come in pairs.

The biggest problem with the discussion was that although the tank was sold as a short term event, you cannot tank for 2 seasons without sufficiently removing talent from the roster to ensure a long, arduous rebuild period.  A period that is roughly the same length of time as a rebuild that didn't include tanking.

I do agree that the selloff of talent insured a long rebuild especially because our cupboard (thanks DR)was bare.  However anyone who has ever followed successful rebuilds knew that a smart rebuild because of our lack of talent in the pipeline (whether we "tanked" or not) would take at least 4-5 years.  TM's incompetence made it longer.  This was never going to be a quick turnaround.  The only one who thought he could do it faster was TM and we know what his judgement is worth.

Additionally the tank and rebuild are separate and have always been. A rebuild in Buffalo was necessary regardless of whether we tanked or not.  TM didn't create the tank strategy DR did.  It was Regier that started the selloff of the talent on the roster to stockpile draft picks .  It was Regier who traded away Roy, Leopold, Regehr, Pominville, Sekera, Tallinder, and Vanek.  TM just continued a strategy already in place by trading Moulson, and Miller.  DR created the tank and TM was brought in to execute the rebuild.   

[Robviously]

13 minutes ago, Weave said:

 

That is because you cannot perform the first without an expectation of performing the second.  You absolutely cannot separate a rebuild from a preceding tank.  When a tank exists, like sith, it must come with an understudy pair.

The biggest problem with the discussion was that although the tank was sold as a short term event, you cannot tank for 2 seasons without sufficiently removing talent from the roster to ensure a long, arduous rebuild period.  A period that is roughly the same length of time as a rebuild that didn't include tanking.

That’s true for how our Tank unfolded but I’m not sure it has to be. If the Sabres had brought in the right players to start the 2015-2016 season, the turnaround would have been quick. Murray’s rebuild was built around ROR, Kane, Lerner, Bogo, etc., and we made a few other crummy trades (e.g. Fasching), on our way to being the first team in NHL history to finish in 31st place. 

[Weave]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A rebuild in Buffalo was necessary regardless of whether we tanked or not.   

 

100% agree here.  I don't think anyone felt otherwise.  We all know and understand the positions here regarding where it went from there.  Suffice to say, the arena didn't have to be empty for 6 seasons.

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, Weave said:

 

100% agree here.  I don't think anyone felt otherwise.  We all know and understand the positions here regarding where it went from there.  Suffice to say, the arena didn't have to be empty for 6 seasons.

That may or may not be so.  However, when I look back at the pipeline, I don't see enough talent from which any GM could have done a partial rebuild or retool.  At the time the "tank" decision was made (March 30 2013 -  with the Leopold trade), we had a very limited prospect pool.  Our best prospects at the time were Armia, Girgensons, Pysyk and Grigorenko.  The double G's were recently drafted and none of the top 4 prospects were thought to have star potential other the Grigorenko and he turned out the worst of the group.  I fully understand why DR made the decision he made and honestly I somewhat agree with him.  Teams like Pitt and Chi, the class of the NHL at the time, even LA and Wash, had rebuilt their teams by getting franchise players at or near the top of the draft.  Regier thought he could do it to.  

Edited November 23, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That may or may not be so.  However, when I look back at the pipeline, I don't see enough talent from which any GM could have done a partial rebuild or retool.  At the time the "tank" decision was made (March 30 2013 -  with the Leopold trade), we had a very limited prospect pool.  Our best prospects at the time were Armia, Girgensons, Pysyk and Grigorenko.  The double G's were recently drafted and none of the top 4 prospects were thought to have star potential other the Grigorenko and he turned out the worst of the group.  I fully understand why DR made the decision he made and honestly I somewhat agree with him.  Teams like Pitt and Chi, the class of the NHL at the time, even LA and Wash, had rebuilt their teams by getting franchise players at or near the top of the draft.  Regier thought he could do it to.  

Yup. But you can say the same about most teams that rebuilt without purposefully losing.  Any team that has been in the top 1/3 f the league for any stretch of time is going to have a thin farm.  It comes with consistently drafting 20-30.  And yet they somehow managed to take a fairly empty farm and out of date core and turn things around without losing on purpose.

It's all been debated before.  There was, is and will still be more than one way to skin the cat we had.  But only one of them required setting up to lose on purpose for multiple seasons.

[dudacek]

Here’s something about the tank: the stated goal was to get up to the top end of the draft because that where teams are most likely to acquire top talent. The current Sabre roster certainly reflects that; I doubt if there is a team in the league starting so many high picks.

Draft position is not a pure indicator of talent level, but it is a reasonable proxy; Our roster has 12 first-round picks, 8 of them in the top 10, and 5 2nd-rounders. Sobotka, Rodrigues, Sheary, Nelson and the goalies are later picks/free agents.

1) Dahlin

2) Eichel

2) Reinhart

3) Bogosian

7) Okposo

8 Skinner

8 Ristolainen

8 Mittelstadt

14) Girgensons

17) Beaulieu

25) Berglund

26) Thompson

[Weave]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Here’s something about the tank: the stated goal was to get up to the top end of the draft because that where teams are most likely to acquire top talent. The current Sabre roster certainly reflects that; I doubt if there is a team in the league starting so many high picks.

Draft position is not a pure indicator of talent level, but it is a reasonable proxy; Our roster has 12 first-round picks, 8 of them in the top 10, and 5 2nd-rounders. Sobotka, Rodrigues, Sheary, Nelson and the goalies are later picks/free agents.

1) Dahlin

2) Eichel

2) Reinhart

3) Bogosian

7) Okposo

8 Skinner

8 Ristolainen

8 Mittelstadt

14) Girgensons

17) Beaulieu

25) Berglund

26) Thompson

 

Right out of the propaganda flyer from your OP in this thread. 

 

Wow.  2013.  20 freaking 13.  Man, it sucks that it's been unbearable since before  2013.  Holy cow is it nice to look forward to games again though.

Edited November 23, 2018 by Weave

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

 

Right out of the propaganda flyer from your OP in this thread. 

 

Wow.  2013.  20 freaking 13.  Man, it sucks that it's been unbearable since before  2013.  Holy cow is it nice to look forward to games again though.

I've said many times that a proper rebuild takes 4-5 years.  March 2013 DR traded Leopold.  Since then we have had 4 coaches, 2 more GMs, an overhaul of our scouting department and yet we are only at the beginning of 6th year.  Again the rebuild is behind schedule because of TM, but amazingly not that far behind.  Also the delay netted us Casey and Dahlin in the draft and Skinner in trade.  I think we are in great shape going forward and unlike the Edm and Tor rebuilds we actually have depth on D.

Also I believe Toronto tanked for Matthews, but they had been bad for 50 years so no one really noticed.  While Matthews was the prize, they had been rebuilding for years.   Between 2009 and 2015 the Leafs drafted early and often.  Kadri 7th in 2009, they would have drafted 2nd in 2010 (if not for the Kessel trade), Reilly 5th in 2012, Nylander 8th in 2014, Marner 7th in 2015 and Matthews 1st in 2016. That's 6 top 8 drafts slots over 8 years

We are not dissimilar.   Risto (8th in 2013), Reinhart (2nd in 2014), Eichel (2nd in 2015), Nylander (8th in 2016), Mittelstadt (8th in 2017) and Dahlin (1st in 2018).  We just went 6 for 6.