How badly did the tank fail?

[dudacek]

What's the definition of insanity again? Trade him while his value is high. O'Reilly, Risto, even Jack. Where have they gotten us? Jack? I know, I know. But if the return were three or four good pieces in an old-fashioned hockey trade, it might be a wise move. The tank/rebuild got us him and little else. Are we destined to watch him play 11 years in Buffalo without sniffing the playoffs? Is he our Barry Sanders? We need more good players.

Old topic maybe, but worth revisiting.

Do we need to blow it up again, or can we work with what we have?

This, if you remember, was the plan:

Edited March 15, 2018 by dudacek

[Sabel79]

The tank, rightly or wrongly, by the skin of its teeth, did what it was supposed to do: raze the franchise so it could be built around one of two players. Preferably not the one they got, mind, but whatever. Turns out an aptitude for demolition does not ensure success in construction, as XGMTM demonstrated.

 

No more tearing down. This team needs to be better next year. And even better the year after that. JBOTs has a job on his hands. I'd like to think he knew what he was getting into when he walked in the door. Things we've all heard lately make me think this is not entirely the case, at least as it relates to the extent of the rot. This makes me less hopeful, to be honest. I suppose we'll see.

[pi2000]

if they win a Cup with Eichel, it was a success

[PerreaultForever]

The key imo is to change the culture. There are not enough players on this roster who are used to winning, expect to win, and demand it from others. Even ROR has always been on losers for most of his career. Wilson and Nolan were maybe brought in as cheap guys who could hopefully transmit that idea but there are still very few. Most of the young guys for sure have only been on winners in junior. 

 

So, blowing it up again means starting from ground zero again and it'll be rudderless yet again. Better is to make moves to bring in guys with solid work ethics and winning ways. Trade the lazy and the poor work habits away one at a time until they are all gone. 

 

Creating a winning culture in Rochester is the first step so that guys who come up carry that attitude forward with them.  This, does seem to be the plan and I can't disagree with it so far. 

 

As for Eichel, I think he needs to be surrounded by players who work hard, not players who take shifts off or sit back and watch him or expect him to carry the load. team unity and solid work habits, that's what we need to build. It's a long road. 

[bunomatic]

The key imo is to change the culture. There are not enough players on this roster who are used to winning, expect to win, and demand it from others. Even ROR has always been on losers for most of his career. Wilson and Nolan were maybe brought in as cheap guys who could hopefully transmit that idea but there are still very few. Most of the young guys for sure have only been on winners in junior. 

 

So, blowing it up again means starting from ground zero again and it'll be rudderless yet again. Better is to make moves to bring in guys with solid work ethics and winning ways. Trade the lazy and the poor work habits away one at a time until they are all gone. 

 

Creating a winning culture in Rochester is the first step so that guys who come up carry that attitude forward with them.  This, does seem to be the plan and I can't disagree with it so far. 

 

As for Eichel, I think he needs to be surrounded by players who work hard, not players who take shifts off or sit back and watch him or expect him to carry the load. team unity and solid work habits, that's what we need to build. It's a long road. 

I like this post. Its also where I'm at with this team. Hopefully JBots rolls up his sleeves and gets to work. 

[dudacek]

The plan above says the key was the 8 1st-rounders and 9 second-rounders acquired between 2012 and 2015 that were going to evolve into a talented core once they were between the ages of 23 and 29, when players are at their peak production.

The first fruits of that would be arriving around now.

 

Murray accelerated that program by traded some for players closer to that age window, and this is what we are left with -ironically 17 players:

 

Bogosian 27, O’Reilly, 27, Lehner, 26, Larsson, 25, Girgensons, 24, McCabe, 24, O’Regan, 24, Ristolainen, 23, Bailey 22, Hurley, 22, Fasching, 22, Reinhart, 22, Karabacek 21, Cornel, 21, Eichel, 21, Guhle 20 and the San Jose Kane pick.

 

To me, that’s 4 very good players, 4 or 5 lower-tier NHLers, maybe 4 or 5 guys that still could become some kind of NHLers and maybe 4 or 5 guys that won’t amount to anything.

 

And it seems to me that’s the sort of mixed bag you would expect from 17 first and second rounders.

 

So maybe the tank was never going to save us anyway.

 

We still need to develop, coach, create culture and occasionally we need to get lucky.

Work with what have, work hard and continue to get incrementally better using every tool available.

We were sold a bill of goods. There is no magic formula.

Edited March 15, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

The plan above says the key was the 8 1st-rounders and 9 second-rounders acquired between 2012 and 2015 that were going to evolve into a talented core once they were between the ages of 23 and 29, when players are at their peak production.

The first fruits of that would be arriving around now.

 

Murray accelerated that program by traded some for players closer to that age window, and this is what we are left with -ironically 17 players:

 

Bogosian 27, O’Reilly, 27, Lehner, 26, Larsson, 25, Girgensons, 24, McCabe, 24, O’Regan, 24, Ristolainen, 23, Bailey 22, Hurley, 22, Fasching, 22, Reinhart, 22, Karabacek 21, Cornel, 21, Eichel, 21, Guhle 20 and the San Jose Kane pick.

 

To me, that’s 4 very good players, 4 or 5 lower-tier NHLers, maybe 4 or 5 guys that still could become some kind of NHLers and maybe 4 or 5 guys that won’t amount to anything.

 

And it seems to me that’s the sort of mixed bag you would expect from 17 first and second rounders.

 

So maybe the tank was never going to save us anyway.

 

We still need to develop, coach, create culture and occasionally we need to get lucky.

Work with what have, work hard and continue to get incrementally better using every tool available.

We were sold a bill of goods. There is no magic formula.

Wait, didn't we argue for months about all the assets TM pissed away.  Didn't you tell me he acquired so many other assets that it didn't matter.  Didn't you say he acquired, albeit lower quality, almost as many picks as he pissed away?

 

The tank hasn't failed, yet!  In fact this is the year that may save the tank.  However TM failed the tank.  You can't accelerate a rebuilt.  You need to build a base, then acquire the vets to fill roster holes.  It's what Pitt did and Chi.  Also rebuilds can take a decade or more.  Toronto has truly sucked since 2007, long before they hit on Marner, Nylander and then bottoming out with Matthews.  Guys like Kadri and JVR were already there.  Chicago had Seabrook (2003) and Keith (2002) long before they drafted Kane (2007) and they sucked for the better part of 2 decades.

 

TM traded away our base of young player and draft/prospect assets to acquire his future stars and destroyed the depth of the organization.  It also didn't help that he was a terrible amateur and pro player evaluator.  It hasn't helped that he didn't draft any D besides Guhle of the pedigree he traded away.  It didn't help that he and DR drafted or acquired some 15 or so forwards (in the 1st 3 rounds) from 2013 to 2016 and only 2, Jack and Sam are contributing.  It didn't help that choose Nylander to compete with Tor and forget our organizations gaping hole on defense.  

 

However we are far from done.  Guhle, Asplund, Mittelstadt and maybe Borgen and Olofsson, can make up for the failures of their brother prospects.  A top 4 pick this year regardless if it's Dahlin or a forward will help significantly.  Maybe a Pu or Nylander and or Fitzgerald will also make a surprise impact.  

 

I'm am really optimistic for 2019-2020 which admittedly seem like forever from here however with some luck our roster could look like this using just internal players  (I'm writing off KO for now).  Age in ( ) at start of or early in the  2019-2020 season.  If the below happens and this group of kids succeeds (not unlike what the Avs look like this season or Tor last year), then the tank ultimately was a success but the rebuild will have gone from 2012/13 to 2019/20 or 7 years, which is actually really short by historical standards.

 

Svechnikov (20) Jack (23) Nylander (22)

Olofsson (24) ROR (28) Reinhart (24)

Asplund (22) ) Mittelstadt (22) Pu (21)

Girgensons (25) ERod (26) Baptiste (24)  (Other Parts Wilson, Bailey, Smith, O'Regan, Davidsson)

 

Guhle (22) Ristolainen (25)

Scandella (29) Borgen (22)

McCabe (26) Nelson (27)

 

Ullmark (26)

Johansson (24)

Edited March 15, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

To me, that’s 4 very good players, 4 or 5 lower-tier NHLers, maybe 4 or 5 guys that still could become some kind of NHLers and maybe 4 or 5 guys that won’t amount to anything.

 

And it seems to me that’s the sort of mixed bag you would expect from 17 first and second rounders.

 

So maybe the tank was never going to save us anyway.

 

I wish more of the fanbase came to this conclusion back when that graphic was distributed. IMO it was always snake oil. A get rich quick scheme that can work when everything falls into place perfectly, but generally it sells hope and not much else.

 

I think that out tank had proven quite conclusivley that it isn’t the draft picks, it’s the management that is building the team that is the difference. This would have been alot less painful had the owner went out and hired competent team builders first instead of chasing a generational player first.

 

Right now we don’t have a generaltional player or a team. And most of the picks obtained in that plan are not going to be on entry level deals next season. Worst case scenario.

[Huckleberry]

we stopped the tank a year to soon :P

 

and now I'm stallin' for dhalin.

Edited March 15, 2018 by blåbär

[nucci]

Well, we're still in last place...

[Rasmus_]

The biggest problem with the entire novelty was not "developing" enough of our own assets.  As much as I loved Murray's brashness, he didn't do a great job investing in youth to propel the team forward.  He tried to speed up the process with the wrong pieces.  Once he felt we had the pieces in place he made a few bad contract decisions.  Okposo prior to his injury / health risks was considered a win-win for the Sabres at 6M for 7 years.  As he was coming off a big season with Tavares and company.  However, that turned sideways.  The worst decision on cap mismanagement would have been Moulson's 5 year extension.  However, it's done in a year.  I think I've just gotten too used to mediocrity.  

[dudacek]

Wait, didn't we argue for months about all the assets TM pissed away.... then the tank ultimately was a success but the rebuild will have gone from 2012/13 to 2019/20 or 7 years, which is actually really short by historical standards.

 

Sorry, I guess my post should have come with a trigger warning. ????

 

It’s funny, but most of this post is in line with what I have been trying to say the whole time.

I guess other than Murray’s ability to lead (you win) we were never that far apart on this after all.

Edited March 15, 2018 by dudacek

[Marvelo]

The tank made the team think that losing on purpose and bottoming out is OK. (Losing is never OK!) The league noticed what the Sabres were doing, while they were doing it and created the lottery, so teams like the Sabres can't tank on purpose. When you lose consistently and are historically bad at putting the puck in the net, like the Sabres, good players don't want to come here. If they're good and they want to join the Sabres, they are being bought off and they're flawed. Fans watching this s-show get disgusted and stop coming. They boo the team off the ice. Psychologically it's a total downer for fans, players and media. It's a huge downer for players when they first step on the ice that there are hardly any fans in the building. And the ones in the seats are disgruntled and waiting for the next disaster. It's hard to win back the fans after the team has made a commitment to losing.

 

It seems to me the Pegulas looked at the Pittsburgh organization and their rebuild with Crosby etc. and tried to emulate it. But Buffalo never had the great decision-makers and hockey know-how Pittsburgh had. Owner Mario Lemieux is the rare hockey executive who was an all time great player. He knows what a good and great player and team is. He knows who to surround himself with, when to take a chance and when to cut bait. Hockey is his life. The Pegulas, on the other hand, are amateurs. They can drill oil wells til the end of time, they will never know what Mario knows and that's how to surround himself with the best.  

[nfreeman]

In answer to the OP:  the tank failed exactly as much as everyone should've expected -- i.e. it has been a complete debacle and has resulted in the team sinking to the bottom and staying there for an as-yet-indeterminate period.  The fan base is alienated and shrinking, the games aren't fun to attend, the team isn't particularly likeable and there's not much hope for real improvement any time soon.

 

If your plan for paying your mortgage is to pawn all your stuff and buy a bunch of powerball tickets -- don't be surprised when you find yourself sleeping under a bridge.

[LGR4GM]

The tank did not fail at all. It achieved its purpose. The rebuild of GMTM failed though. The tank was moving all assets that would have hindered the goal of finishing last. The Sabres very succesfully tanked and then very unsuccessfully to date rebuilt after acquiring Eichel. That said, there is a lot of help on the way. Which is good. 

 

Here, I will make what is being called the "tank" even though you mean rebuild after the tank succeed in 3 moves. Babcock over Bylsma. Boeser over Lehner. Svechnikov over Nylander. There done. 

[nfreeman]

Well, the purpose of the tank wasn't to land Eichel.  It was to become a cup contender, with the logic being that having Eichel would facilitate becoming a cup contender. 

 

Those of us who opposed the tank argued (correctly) that even with Eichel, it was much more likely that the team would continue to languish at the bottom than rise to the top.

 

I agree that getting Babcock -- one of the best coaches in NHL history -- would've made for a better team.  Your other 2 changes would also have helped, although I think the improvements there would've been marginal (greater improvements would've resulted if Lehner had become what GMTM was hoping for, instead of a bottom-5 NHL starter).

 

But if the plan relies on getting Babcock -- it's a stupid and desperate plan.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

Those of us who opposed the tank argued (correctly) that even with Eichel, it was much more likely that the team would continue to languish at the bottom than rise to the top.

 

Considering Eichel is 21 and we already know a wave of prospects are coming in, disagree. If you want to call the tank a failure that is your business. That is an opinion you are entitled to. I don't agree with it. I think that take is short sighted. An instant gratification take if you will. To keep stating it here as though it was fact with a little (correctly) in parenthesis added on is just the icing on the cake. I am very glad the Sabres bottomed out. I like Eichel, and Reinhart of late. I would rather have them then have done what the Bills did for 17 years, which is hover on the edge of mediocrity. The tank can and will be proven to have worked out. It just hit a small hiccup with GMTM trading away too much draft capital. Botterill seems smarter and has already begun the clean up process. It just might be hard for some to separate the tank from the rebuild. 

Edited March 15, 2018 by SkuggaLiger

[Mustache of God]

5 years later were last in the league watching as an expansion team is being seriously considered a Stanley Cup Contender and Donald Trump is president.

This is truly the worst timeline.

[Georgia Blizzard]

The tank didn't fail, GMTM failed.

 

In his attempt to accelerate the rebuild, he has in affect extended it, and quite possibly ruined it.

[nfreeman]

Considering Eichel is 21 and we already know a wave of prospects are coming in, disagree. If you want to call the tank a failure that is your business. That is an opinion you are entitled to. I don't agree with it. I think that take is short sighted. An instant gratification take if you will. To keep stating it here as though it was fact with a little (correctly) in parenthesis added on is just the icing on the cake. I am very glad the Sabres bottomed out. I like Eichel, and Reinhart of late. I would rather have them then have done what the Bills did for 17 years, which is hover on the edge of mediocrity. The tank can and will be proven to have worked out. It just hit a small hiccup with GMTM trading away too much draft capital. Botterill seems smarter and has already begun the clean up process. It just might be hard for some to separate the tank from the rebuild. 

 

OK.  If they are bottom 5 in the NHL next year, would you think the tank was a failure?  What if it's both next year and the following year?

 

As for the comparison with the Bills -- I think that's a straw man.  The Bills weren't trying to win.  They didn't spend to the cap and they hired one bargain-bin loser after another at GM and coach. 

[Stoner]

The tank was a hail mary to get McDavid, which then likely would have brought Babcock on board. It was batted down at the goal line. Eichel as a prize wasn't enough.

 

It's back to the drawing board for Botterill, which was the point of the post that led to this thread. Look at how Beane is building a team down in OP. Botterill needs to get off his butt. No one should be off the table, not even Eichel.

 

Actually the point of the thread was whether Jason can take what value he has and turn it into different, if not better, value. Shake things up, because we know the chemistry of this team was and is way off. "We know what kind of individuals we have." *door SLAM*

Edited March 15, 2018 by PASabreFan

[LGR4GM]

OK.  If they are bottom 5 in the NHL next year, would you think the tank was a failure?  What if it's both next year and the following year?

 

As for the comparison with the Bills -- I think that's a straw man.  The Bills weren't trying to win.  They didn't spend to the cap and they hired one bargain-bin loser after another at GM and coach. 

In 2 years the Sabres will not be a bottom 5 team. So in 2019/2020.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Sorry, I guess my post should have come with a trigger warning.

It’s funny, but most of this post is in line with what I have been trying to say the whole time.

I guess other than Murray’s ability to lead (you win) we were never that far apart on this after all.

I’m just glad people are finally realizing how piss poor of a GM TM was. I admit I wanted someone more aggressive the DR, but TM was aggressive without a real game plan. He didn’t know when to be aggressive and when not to be. He was like a 13 year old at Game Stop with his Dad’s Platinum Amex and no impulse control.

 

Of all his major deals ROR is still the only one I understand from a hockey standpoint. The rest make no sense and never did. If the plan was to use those draft picks and build a team, then that is what he and the Sabres should have done. For example sending away McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for Fasching? Really how did that make sense then or now? We had Neuvirth, Halak and Johnson cycle through the organization, why did we need to grab Lehner and waste a 1st rd pick? Where would we be if we hadn’t dumped our players and picks? We’d probably be outside the playoffs, but I think we’d have a more entertaining team with a clearer path to long-term success.

In 2 years the Sabres will not be a bottom 5 team. So in 2019/2020.

Just look at the roster for 2019/20 that I posted above just using internal talent. That is a young, fast, talented and should be an exciting team. Not unlike what Colorado look like this year and Tor last year. Next year is the last transition year as the rest of TM’s damage gets wiped away. We just need some lottery luck this year and some kids to setup. Edited March 15, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Drunkard]

I think the tank has failed so far, but there's plenty of time for it to pay off. The good thing about tanking is that it brings in blue chip young talent that can help your team for a decade or longer. The short term results have definitely been craptastic but we seem to have a strong nucleus of young players to build around in Eichel, Reinhart, and Ristolainen along with several youngish veterans to fortify the roster in O'Reilly, Scandella, and Okposo (depending on health concerns).

 

We just need some of the younger guys already on the team to step up (McCabe, Antipin, Girgensons) and then we need some luck that Guhle, Ullmark, and Nylander live up to the hype/potential. We also need to hit it big with our #1 pick this year and for Casey Mittelstadt to be the lord and savior that the ancients foretold.

 

It can happen. We need some luck though.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The tank was a desperate plan to get top talent in a good draft year and then was continued in an attempt to land a generational talent with a very good consolation prize.  It was a terrible idea and was compounded by an ill advised scheme to try to speed up a rebuild.  

 

As for Babcock.  I am convinced that when he left Detroit there was only one place he would end up and he did.  Thinking / planning / hoping that he would come to Buffalo was not reality.

 

The tank will haunt the Sabres for a long time, IMO.  Possibly forever.  I am a fan of the team, but hated management for tanking.  For me, a Stanley Cup, if it ever happens, with Eichel and Samson on the roster (the two players directly resulting from tanking for 2+ years) will be tainted.