Oh Samson My Samson!

[SwampD]

I still think that the biggest difference in Samson's play is the results.

[dudacek]

I don’t think that it’s a coincidence that all our good players play better with Sam.

Edited March 6, 2018 by dudacek

[Drunkard]

All's I can say is, Sam-ROR is by far the best duo we have on this team chemistry-wise. The only acceptable time to break them up will be to put ROR with Jack and try that out for the first time in 4 years. 

 

Eichel and O'Reilly won't get paired together other than on the power play because we need them both to play center. Reinhart has shown he's better playing wing with either of those guys centering him and until Mittelstadt blesses us with his presence we don't have another center who belongs in the top 6.

[nfreeman]

Excellent thread.

 

I agree that Reino has really turned it around, and is not just putting up numbers but is also playing with much more tenacity and effectiveness. 

 

I would not be at all surprised if he gets a 3-year deal in the $4MM/year range.  However, I have no desire to give him anything more than a $2MM x 2 years "prove it" contract, and would prefer a 1-year deal.  Here are my reasons:

 

- We shouldn't ignore that not showing up until 40+ games are gone, and the season is effectively over, means that he had a bad season, even if he has a strong 2nd half.

 

- That kind of season shouldn't be rewarded.  It's not good for the Sabres from a risk perspective, and it's not good for a young player from a development perspective. 

 

- Every parent knows that kids need to learn delayed gratification -- i.e. earning something over an extended period makes the kid appreciate both the reward and the value of hard work.  Reino strikes me as a kid who still has mental and emotional maturing to do -- e.g. his recent comments about him not doing anything differently indicate that he hasn't really internalized and accepted responsibility for his poor 1st half.

 

- Before I give him a fat contract, I'd like to be much more comfortable that this isn't another Stafford-in-a-contract-year situation.

[Sabel79]

Agreed. He literally was getting knocked on his butt most every time he was challenged 1 game; and then began scoring @ a 1PPG pace (w/out getting knocked down constantly) the next game.

There was seriously a lightbulb moment for him.

This is true, and makes me wonder if that lightbulb burns out shortly after any lengthy deal... Not saying it's definite or even likely, but if all he needed to do was, and indeed he had to flip a switch, presumably to get paid, does the switch stay on afterwards?

[dudacek]

Excellent thread.

 

I agree that Reino has really turned it around, and is not just putting up numbers but is also playing with much more tenacity and effectiveness.

 

I would not be at all surprised if he gets a 3-year deal in the $4MM/year range. However, I have no desire to give him anything more than a $2MM x 2 years "prove it" contract, and would prefer a 1-year deal. Here are my reasons:

 

- We shouldn't ignore that not showing up until 40+ games are gone, and the season is effectively over, means that he had a bad season, even if he has a strong 2nd half.

 

- That kind of season shouldn't be rewarded. It's not good for the Sabres from a risk perspective, and it's not good for a young player from a development perspective.

 

- Every parent knows that kids need to learn delayed gratification -- i.e. earning something over an extended period makes the kid appreciate both the reward and the value of hard work. Reino strikes me as a kid who still has mental and emotional maturing to do -- e.g. his recent comments about him not doing anything differently indicate that he hasn't really internalized and accepted responsibility for his poor 1st half.

 

- Before I give him a fat contract, I'd like to be much more comfortable that this isn't another Stafford-in-a-contract-year situation.

Nothing surprising here and an entirely defensible position, save one huge hole.

You do know there is no way in hell Sam signs any deal of any length that pays him $2 million, right?

Even as a starting offer, you are just going to antagonize the agent and the player.

 

Nail Yakupov got a $2.5 bridge after seasons of 31, 23 and 34 points three years ago.

I’d be very interested in seeing the cheapest deal signed by a player who put up three consecutive seasons of more than 40 points this decade. I bet it was a lot more than $2 million.

 

For the record, Sam hit his bonuses and made/will make $3.5 million in each of the past three years. He’s not taking a pay cut, even for one year. Asking him to would be bad management.

Edited March 6, 2018 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

Well, if he's been making $3.5MM per year, I agree that a deal at less than $3.5MM isn't realistic.

 

I'm pretty fuzzy on what types of bonuses are permitted at this point in his career under the CBA, but I will amend my proposal to something like $3.5MM per year base with another $1MM to $1.5MM in incentive bonuses. 

 

I still want a 1- or 2-year deal though.  If he crushes it then I'm willing to pay more on a long-term contract than it would've cost to get him to sign one now.  (And part of the reason I feel that way is that I think incentivizing him with a short-term deal now is more likely to make him develop into the kind of player who will earn a long-term deal and be worth it.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

Nothing surprising here and an entirely defensible position, save one huge hole.

You do know there is no way in hell Sam signs any deal of any length that pays him $2 million, right?

Even as a starting offer, you are just going to antagonize the agent and the player.

Nail Yakupov got a $2.5 bridge after seasons of 31, 23 and 34 points three years ago.

I’d be very interested in seeing the cheapest deal signed by a player who put up three consecutive seasons of more than 40 points this decade. I bet it was a lot more than $2 million.

For the record, Sam hit his bonuses and made $3.5 million in each of the past three years. He’s not taking a pay cut, even for one year. Asking him to would be bad management.

The contract you are looking for is Tyler Ennis, who went 49 pts in his first full NHL season, then 34 in 48 games (58 pt pace) year 2, 31 in 47 year 3 (lockout), 43 in year 4 and 46 in year 5, then the concussions took over. He signed a 2.85 per season 2 yr bridge deal after year 2 and then a 5 year 4.6 per season deal after year 4.

 

Sam’s qualifying offer has to be at 105% of his base, but no way he takes less then what he earned with his bonuses. We’ll be lucky to get him for 3 years 12 mill. If he stays hot, which there is no reason to think he won’t, we maybe have to do 4 for 20 to get it done.

 

We’ve mentioned earlier how once he settled in a ROR’s RW, how his game exploded. I agree with this wholeheartedly. I also agree that he makes he players around him more productive. With a defined role, a little maturity and Wowie’s gentle teaching, something clicked and he became a player. This shouldn’t surprise to much. Most players his age are still in college, Europe or the AHL gaining experience and maturity. Sam had to grow up in the NHL.

Edited March 6, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[pi2000]

he's had good 20-25 game stretch, lots of players do.

 

its too earlier to talk $$$$, lots of hockey left.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Samson is fine, just like many of us thought.

 

I think it very well be combination of things suggested in this thread that helped him turn it around.

 

He is a very good player and it would appear that he is a strong winger for ROR.

 

As far as contract goes.  I would think that he will probably ask for and should get something like 5M for 5 years.  Maybe 6M for 7 years.

[PerreaultForever]

I don’t think the change in Sam’s play this season was evolutionary at all. He didn’t turn a corner so to speak. The change in his game was very sudden, and very sustained. I think Sam had an event change what he was doing. Maybe it was a talk with the coach, maybe with his agent. I can’t say what it was, but it was very sudden.

 

I also think it helps a ton that he’s playing the position he should be playing, and isn’t being moved in and out of it periodically.

All of this. I wouldn't pay him anything big until I see a full season of sustained effort from him. We don't want long term deals given to players who sulk or turn it on and off when they feel like it or whatever the reason was for his lack of.... earlier in the year. I can't help thinking maybe he wanted to play his way off the team hoping for a trade to a better team and now that he sees he is stuck here he has turned it back on for a while to negotiate a better contract.

He makes me think of Loui Eriksson. Big numbers/effort in a contract year but floats through most of his career. Give me consistency and a full season first.  

[Samson's Flow]

All of this. I wouldn't pay him anything big until I see a full season of sustained effort from him. We don't want long term deals given to players who sulk or turn it on and off when they feel like it or whatever the reason was for his lack of.... earlier in the year. I can't help thinking maybe he wanted to play his way off the team hoping for a trade to a better team and now that he sees he is stuck here he has turned it back on for a while to negotiate a better contract.

He makes me think of Loui Eriksson. Big numbers/effort in a contract year but floats through most of his career. Give me consistency and a full season first.  

He is still only 22 years old, so I would assert that what you see could be actual development. In no way do I think he is a "what you see is what you get" type of player yet. 

 

I think there are only two logical thought processes:

1) You think he will only get better and want to lock in his cap hit at lower than his future market value by signing a long term extension. Something like $5-5.5MM over 6-7 years. Risky in that he could become Stafford, but could payoff and have a cheap 1st liner for years to come.

 

2) You aren't sure his recent strong play is real, or you believe he is too inconsistent and needs to prove it before the Sabres invest in a long term deal. You sign a bridge deal for $3.5MM for 2 years and revisit his progress in 2020. Risk is he becomes a star and commands $8MM+ on the market, but this insulates the Sabres from potential regression.

[mjd1001]

I found this interseting...

 

Before Jan 1 of this season....38 games played...58 shots on goal  (1.52 per game)

 

Since Jan 1......28 games played...75 shots on goal  (2.68 per game)

 

A 75% increase in shots on goal?  A function of more ice time? or him being in better positions in the offensive zone?

[PerreaultForever]

Part of his success has to also be attributed to O'Reilly's solid play lately as well as the D getting more shots on goal. Reinhart's finding a role as a guy who goes to the net but is not the guy the starts the play or controls it. A complementary player with the right linemates.  

[Weave]

I found this interseting...

 

Before Jan 1 of this season....38 games played...58 shots on goal  (1.52 per game)

 

Since Jan 1......28 games played...75 shots on goal  (2.68 per game)

 

A 75% increase in shots on goal?  A function of more ice time? or him being in better positions in the offensive zone?

 

Both.  He was a 3rd line center for much of those 38 games.  Reduced time due to 3rd line and reduced O zone time because he was centering borderline AHL talent. 

He is now where he belonged all along.  And is showing it.

[dudacek]

Part of his success has to also be attributed to O'Reilly's solid play lately as well as the D getting more shots on goal. Reinhart's finding a role as a guy who goes to the net but is not the guy the starts the play or controls it. A complementary player with the right linemates.

 

I disagree. You are describing last year’s Reinhart.

The current edition is forcing turnovers, transitioning the puck through the neutral zone, making good zone entries, holding on to it to set things up on the cycle and getting it to the net or the point for his teammates.

One of the biggest reasons the point men are getting more shots is because Sam is getting them the puck. He’s leaving the Brad Boyes lurker game behind and showing more of those Sedin skills he was drafted for.

Eye test says he is our best possession player, with only O’Reilly in the ballpark and Reinhart has helped O’Reillys game as much as the other way around.

Edited March 7, 2018 by dudacek

[Doohicksie]

I'm going to say this:  If he's a second half player and a post season player, I don't care if he sucks in the first half of the season.  I want a player that peaks in April and beyond, not one that peaks in October.  You don't want a whole team like that, but if one or two of your best players are Mr. May and June, that can really help a playoff run.

[Weave]

I'm going to say this:  If he's a second half player and a post season player, I don't care if he sucks in the first half of the season.  I want a player that peaks in April and beyond, not one that peaks in October.  You don't want a whole team like that, but if one or two of your best players are Mr. May and June, that can really help a playoff run.

 

[IKnowPhysics]

13 points in 44 games then (starting January 18) 23 points in 22 games.

[PerreaultForever]

I'm going to say this:  If he's a second half player and a post season player, I don't care if he sucks in the first half of the season.  I want a player that peaks in April and beyond, not one that peaks in October.  You don't want a whole team like that, but if one or two of your best players are Mr. May and June, that can really help a playoff run.

I'm with ya, but we don't know about that part yet. Good end of season does not necessarily equate to good in playoffs. 

[inkman]

I'm with ya, but we don't know about that part yet. Good end of season does not necessarily equate to good in playoffs.

Hence the word "if"

[jsb]

I'm going to say this:  If he's a second half player and a post season player, I don't care if he sucks in the first half of the season.  I want a player that peaks in April and beyond, not one that peaks in October.  You don't want a whole team like that, but if one or two of your best players are Mr. May and June, that can really help a playoff run.

But how many years are we going to have to wait to find that one out.

[Doohicksie]

One.

 

 

 

;)

[Rasmus_]

It really was putting a damper on things that I was considering it "okay" to trade a former #2 overall pick. Who has been with the Sabres for 4 seasons, who is a good soldier and wants to write the fort.  This is someone we need to build around, not jettison.  So I'm back on board.  Go #23!

[Sabres Fan in NS]

 

Best. Clip. Ever!!